HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

SEI

SEI-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-sei · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.63%
realized vol (ann.)
80.73%
max drawdown
0.99%
sharpe
15.43
ulcer index
0.66%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.58%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
1901.80
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.95%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.03
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
1305.07
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.03
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
634
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.63%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 32%
  • 24h change +1.63%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 7.9bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-SEI/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.6s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.055
24h Δ · live
1.63%
24h vol · live
$0.6M
SEI · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0539 · σ=0.0006 · range [0.0532, 0.0555] · R²=0.079▲ RISING +1.66%σ NORMAL 1.06%LAST 0.05460.05550.05500.05440.05380.0532μ = 0.0539max 0.0555min 0.0532dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.08μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.05
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=11,331,766 · μ=453270.6 · σ=788416.2 · CV=1.74BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=2001,036,0562,072,1113,108,1674,144,222μ = 4532714,144,22250%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 4144222 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.6s
$mark $
$0.0547
$mid $
$0.0547
◉prev-day close
$0.0538
Δ24h Δ %
+1.625%
$24h vol $
$598.95k
◐open interest $
$1.59M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0539 · σ=0.0006 · range [0.0532, 0.0555] · R²=0.079▲ RISING +1.66%σ NORMAL 1.06%LAST 0.05460.05550.05500.05440.05380.0532μ = 0.0539max 0.0555min 0.0532dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.08μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0547 · 24h 1.63% · range $[0.0532, 0.0555]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0530, 0.0555] · σ=0.0006 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=58%BULLISH +0.57%CLOSE 0.0546 vs OPEN 0.0543 (+0.57%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.05460.05550.05490.05430.05370.0530μ close = 0.0539O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-1.08%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-1.08%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.28%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.28%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.88%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.88%)O0.053 H0.053 L0.053 C0.053 (+0.07%)O0.053 H0.053 L0.053 C0.053 (+0.07%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.11%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.11%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.054 (+1.10%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.054 (+1.10%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.055 (+1.98%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.055 (+1.98%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (-1.24%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (-1.24%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.08%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.08%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.44%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.44%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.42%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.42%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.94%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.94%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.77%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.77%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.054 (+0.33%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.054 (+0.33%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.50%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.50%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.054 (+0.69%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.054 (+0.69%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.84%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.84%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.74%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.74%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.053 C0.054 (-0.17%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.053 C0.054 (-0.17%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.33%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.33%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (+0.13%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (+0.13%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.054 (+0.36%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.054 (+0.36%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (+1.24%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (+1.24%)2.2%O0.054 H0.056 L0.054 C0.056 (+2.21%)O0.054 H0.056 L0.054 C0.056 (+2.21%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.055 C0.055 (-1.59%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.055 C0.055 (-1.59%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=11,331,766 · μ=453270.6 · σ=788416.2 · CV=1.74BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=2001,036,0562,072,1113,108,1674,144,222μ = 453271285,879 · 6.9% peak285,879 · 6.9% peak290,962 · 7.0% peak290,962 · 7.0% peak373,467 · 9.0% peak373,467 · 9.0% peak269,377 · 6.5% peak269,377 · 6.5% peak233,882 · 5.6% peak233,882 · 5.6% peak276,449 · 6.7% peak276,449 · 6.7% peak719,123 · 17.4% peak719,123 · 17.4% peak594,937 · 14.4% peak594,937 · 14.4% peak126,815 · 3.1% peak126,815 · 3.1% peak359,289 · 8.7% peak359,289 · 8.7% peak231,593 · 5.6% peak231,593 · 5.6% peak197,501 · 4.8% peak197,501 · 4.8% peak562,764 · 13.6% peak562,764 · 13.6% peak75,157 · 1.8% peak75,157 · 1.8% peak130,091 · 3.1% peak130,091 · 3.1% peak51,246 · 1.2% peak51,246 · 1.2% peak192,623 · 4.6% peak192,623 · 4.6% peak336,463 · 8.1% peak336,463 · 8.1% peak159,538 · 3.8% peak159,538 · 3.8% peak305,921 · 7.4% peak305,921 · 7.4% peak110,230 · 2.7% peak110,230 · 2.7% peak238,112 · 5.7% peak238,112 · 5.7% peak614,672 · 14.8% peak614,672 · 14.8% peak4,144,2224,144,222 · 100.0% peak4,144,222 · 100.0% peak451,453 · 10.9% peak451,453 · 10.9% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 11331766 · peak 4144222 · CV 1.74

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0007 · σ=0.0093 · skew=0.44 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.31 (mesokurtic)43210 2-147.13bpbin -147.13bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -147.13bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak-115.31bp 4-83.48bpbin -83.48bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -83.48bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 2-51.66bpbin -51.66bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -51.66bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 4-19.83bpbin -19.83bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -19.83bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 311.99bpbin 11.99bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 11.99bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 343.81bpbin 43.81bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 43.81bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 275.64bpbin 75.64bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 75.64bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1107.46bpbin 107.46bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 107.46bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1139.28bpbin 139.28bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 139.28bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak171.11bp 2202.93bpbin 202.93bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 202.93bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.45 · kurt=-0.18 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0547
Mid price
$0.0547
24h change
+1.63%
Mark–mid spread
1.65 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0538

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.12)
μ MEAN0.0539$95% CI: [0.0536$, 0.0541$]
σ STD DEV0.0006$σ² = 0.003×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.06%
med MEDIAN0.0537$Q₁ 0.0534$ · Q₃ 0.0542$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0023$ · IQR 0.0008$ (1.349σ→0.0008$)
min 0.0532$Q₁ 0.0534$med 0.0537$Q₃ 0.0542$max 0.0555$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.117right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.810mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.34
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.03
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.03
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=6.77
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.068750%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.072
σᵣ STD / h0.950210%σ²ᵣ = 0.903×10⁻⁴ · CV = 13.82×
σ ANNUALISED88.93%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.950%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)6.77excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)7.99strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.48approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.08mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.18
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+602.25%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.26%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.263%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.558%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.473%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.02%8h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.263%VaR₉₉−1.558%ES₉₅−1.473%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 8h duration
PEAK5.49$
−3.02% drawdown over 8h
5.32$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.17× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.23× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.11% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
56.5 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.786 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0551
Bollinger MA
$0.0540
Bollinger lower
$0.0528

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.087within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.108lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.980strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.409fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.980
H = 0.980STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.087k=2-0.108k=3-0.103k=4-0.189k=5+0.0160+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.41)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.41)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$598.95k
Open interest (USD)
$1.59M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.38x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
7.614× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
3.807× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
1.904×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.19% · worst -1.63% · typical |Δ| 0.74%MILD BULLISH +1.65%BEST+2.19%06hWORST-1.63%07hTYPICAL |Δ|0.74%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.65%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.13% · Σ +1.04%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.13% · Σ +1.02%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.41%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.65%+3.28%-0.96%-0.20% · 08h-0.20% · 08h-0.20%08h-0.76% · 09h-0.76% · 09h-0.76%09h0.12% · 10h0.12% · 10h0.12%10h-0.08% · 11h-0.08% · 11h-0.08%11h1.11% · 12h1.11% · 12h1.11%12h1.93% · 13h1.93% · 13h1.93%13h-1.31% · 14h-1.31% · 14h-1.31%14h0.21% · 15h0.21% · 15h0.21%15h-0.39% · 16h-0.39% · 16h-0.39%16h0.43% · 17h0.43% · 17h0.43%17h-0.97% · 18h-0.97% · 18h-0.97%18h-0.78% · 19h-0.78% · 19h-0.78%19h0.33% · 20h0.33% · 20h0.33%20h-0.59% · 21h-0.59% · 21h-0.59%21h0.67% · 22h0.67% · 22h0.67%22h0.89% · 23h0.89% · 23h0.89%23h-0.75% · 00h-0.75% · 00h-0.75%00h-0.25% · 01h-0.25% · 01h-0.25%01h-0.33% · 02h-0.33% · 02h-0.33%02h0.13% · 03h0.13% · 03h0.13%03h0.44% · 04h0.44% · 04h0.44%04h1.24% · 05h1.24% · 05h1.24%05h2.19% · 06h2.19% · 06h2.19%06h★ BEST-1.63% · 07h-1.63% · 07h-1.63%07h▼ WORSTTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+1.04%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 2.19% · worst -1.63% · typical |Δ| 0.739%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.56%FINAL+1.56%MAX DD-3.04%RECOVERYONGOING · 16 barsMAX RUN-UP+3.24%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0156 · peak 1.0324 · range [0.9901, 1.0324]1.03240.9901break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0324UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.04% · moderate0%-3.04%▼ TROUGH -3.04%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -3.04%bar 8-23 · 16 bars · recovered#2 -1.63%bar 25-25 · 1 bars · ONGOING#3 -0.96%bar 2-5 · 4 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.04%)RECOVERYongoing · 18 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 1.0156 (1.56%) · max DD -3.04% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +11 / −8 (58% positive) · μ=2.12 · σ=29.18MIXED EDGELAST 24.19 (+0.76σ vs μ)64.1532.070.00-32.07-64.15μ = 2.1233.6333.6313.1413.1427.9427.9420.0220.0227.2127.21-1.37-1.37-64.15-64.15-30.15-30.15-52.74-52.74-19.89-19.89-8.63-8.63-4.69-4.696.926.92-8.43-8.438.818.813.313.3110.6510.6554.5854.5824.1924.19v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 24.192 · range [-64.15, 54.58] · μ 2.124 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=80.8628 · σ=22.9768 · range [54.4325, 122.8729] · R²=0.128▲ RISING +33.32%σ EXTREME 28.41%LAST 122.8729122.8729105.762888.652771.542654.4325μ = 80.8628max 122.8729min 54.4325dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.13μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 122.87% · range [54.43%, 122.87%] · μ 80.86% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.119 · σ=0.276MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.205 (-0.31σ vs μ)0.5180.2590.000-0.259-0.518μ = -0.1190.3810.381-0.158-0.158-0.233-0.233-0.211-0.211-0.183-0.183-0.518-0.518-0.321-0.321-0.300-0.300-0.423-0.423-0.335-0.3350.1450.145-0.306-0.306-0.212-0.212-0.071-0.0710.0920.092-0.205-0.2050.3380.3380.4600.460-0.205-0.205v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.205 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.9323
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6274
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.9773
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8533
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.1380
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2383
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.8348
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4038
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1493
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4452
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.6329
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5268
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.807 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=8.65e-5 · top T=2.40h (23.2%) · top-3 cover 65.0%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)2.4e-41.8e-41.2e-46.0e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.93e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.93e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.47e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.47e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.27e-4 · 21.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.27e-4 · 21.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.57e-4 · 15.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.57e-4 · 15.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.02e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.02e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.43e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.43e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.07e-4 · 19.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.07e-4 · 19.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.25e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.25e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.88e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.88e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.41e-4 · 23.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.41e-4 · 23.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.35e-5 · 9.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.35e-5 · 9.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.24e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.24e-7 · 0.0% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=8.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 23.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.038e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4750 bars · effective 5249975 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.012%/barparametric μ/σ² 8.49× · μ 0.003% · σ 0.18%
μ per barmean
0.003%
σ per barvol
0.18%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
8.49×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.01%0.01%0.01%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 2.12× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.002% · annualized Sharpe 25.51400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 2.12× · bootstrap from 4749 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.011
annualized 25.51
μ per barafter L
0.004%
σ per barafter L
0.36%
VaR 95%5%
0.12%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.55%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.6%
0.83×0.92×1.01×1.11×1.20×1.29×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 34.42σ ann 405% · Sortino 37.41 · n 4749 · ⚠ capped (n=4749 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%898%1795%2693%3591%4489%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)405.3%Ann. vol σ3442.3%Sharpe (ann)3740.6%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0440.0470.0500.0520.0550.058t-4749t-3958t-3166t-2375t-1583t-792t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:59:13 UTC
Snapshot age
3.6s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:59:17 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
6d1cfe274d305088bf013a96afda604ba295ce4b205b2a5da17af8e14bbacf57 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$6.59K
bid $3.21K · ask $3.37K
Depth within 10bp
$30.10K
bid $8.89K · ask $21.21K
Depth within 50bp
$79.82K
bid $41.10K · ask $38.72K
Mid price
0.054665
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.031
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.424
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-SEI/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0546751.88bp0.0546875FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0546975.89bp0.05470810FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.0547169.27bp0.05474220PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0546561.65bp0.0546522FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0546306.35bp0.05461010FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.05459712.36bp0.05456020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-SEI/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$11.33M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-SEI/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.276 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$7.05M
real volume
Sell weight
$4.00M
real volume
Net delta
$3.05M
buyers net
Imbalance
27.64%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
27.6%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-SEI/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.98% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 18:00:00Z3.0h0.054307→0.0532311.981%4
#22026-06-20 07:00:00Z0ms0.055528→0.0546301.617%1
#32026-06-19 14:00:00Z2.0h0.054889→0.0540751.483%3

/api/asset/hl-SEI/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,750 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
405.35%
σ per bar = 0.001769
Mean return (annualised)
13953.10%
μ per bar = 0.000027
Sharpe (rf=0)
34.42
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
5.76%
peak 0.06 → trough 0.05 over 3973 bars

/api/asset/hl-SEI/risk · same metrics, JSON