HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

SKR

SKR-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-skr · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 9.55%
realized vol (ann.)
268.19%
max drawdown
10.10%
sharpe
-84.19
ulcer index
8.13%
RMS drawdown
pain index
7.82%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2778.81
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
9.94%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.87
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2272.45
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.87
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
9.55%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-11.67%
signalLONGconfidence 44%suggested side: BUY
  • 24h change +9.55%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 20.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-SKR/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH116ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.010
24h Δ · live
9.55%
24h vol · live
$0.6M
SKR · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0094 · σ=0.0006 · range [0.0088, 0.0111] · R²=0.634▲ RISING +9.03%σ HIGH 6.27%LAST 0.00970.01110.01050.01000.00940.0088μ = 0.0094max 0.0111min 0.0088dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.63μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.2%Short fee 51.8%SHORT FEE51.8%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.2%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.8%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.001332% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=62,542,387 · μ=2501695.5 · σ=4198247.3 · CV=1.68BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=2103,955,4667,910,93211,866,39715,821,863μ = 250169515,821,86350%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 15821863 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
116ms
$mark $
$0.0097
$mid $
$0.0097
◉prev-day close
$0.0089
Δ24h Δ %
+9.549%
$24h vol $
$633.15k
◐open interest $
$352.30k
%funding (1h)
-0.001332%
%funding (yr)
-11.67%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0094 · σ=0.0006 · range [0.0088, 0.0111] · R²=0.634▲ RISING +9.03%σ HIGH 6.27%LAST 0.00970.01110.01050.01000.00940.0088μ = 0.0094max 0.0111min 0.0088dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.63μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0097 · 24h 9.55% · range $[0.0088, 0.0111]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0088, 0.0113] · σ=0.0006 · CV=0.06 · bodyµ=49%BULLISH +9.00%CLOSE 0.0097 vs OPEN 0.0089 (+9.00%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.00970.01130.01070.01010.00940.0088μ close = 0.0094O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.02%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.02%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.69%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.69%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-1.04%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-1.04%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.21%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.21%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.43%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.43%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.09%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.09%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.39%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.39%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.05%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.05%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.27%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.27%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.34%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.34%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.98%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.98%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+2.40%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+2.40%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.21%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.21%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.29%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.29%)O0.009 H0.010 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.32%)O0.009 H0.010 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.32%)O0.009 H0.010 L0.009 C0.010 (+2.15%)O0.009 H0.010 L0.009 C0.010 (+2.15%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.74%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.74%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.91%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.91%)O0.009 H0.010 L0.009 C0.010 (+1.79%)O0.009 H0.010 L0.009 C0.010 (+1.79%)O0.010 H0.011 L0.010 C0.011 (+10.39%)O0.010 H0.011 L0.010 C0.011 (+10.39%)O0.011 H0.011 L0.011 C0.011 (+3.93%)O0.011 H0.011 L0.011 C0.011 (+3.93%)-9.1%O0.011 H0.011 L0.010 C0.010 (-9.10%)O0.011 H0.011 L0.010 C0.010 (-9.10%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-1.53%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-1.53%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-2.06%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-2.06%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.21%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.21%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=62,542,387 · μ=2501695.5 · σ=4198247.3 · CV=1.68BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=2103,955,4667,910,93211,866,39715,821,863μ = 2501695463,645 · 2.9% peak463,645 · 2.9% peak2,589,941 · 16.4% peak2,589,941 · 16.4% peak326,625 · 2.1% peak326,625 · 2.1% peak363,987 · 2.3% peak363,987 · 2.3% peak245,902 · 1.6% peak245,902 · 1.6% peak577,373 · 3.6% peak577,373 · 3.6% peak359,086 · 2.3% peak359,086 · 2.3% peak439,850 · 2.8% peak439,850 · 2.8% peak316,656 · 2.0% peak316,656 · 2.0% peak272,156 · 1.7% peak272,156 · 1.7% peak638,352 · 4.0% peak638,352 · 4.0% peak895,535 · 5.7% peak895,535 · 5.7% peak763,020 · 4.8% peak763,020 · 4.8% peak1,482,506 · 9.4% peak1,482,506 · 9.4% peak1,514,518 · 9.6% peak1,514,518 · 9.6% peak2,015,911 · 12.7% peak2,015,911 · 12.7% peak476,913 · 3.0% peak476,913 · 3.0% peak507,718 · 3.2% peak507,718 · 3.2% peak685,873 · 4.3% peak685,873 · 4.3% peak9,009,837 · 56.9% peak9,009,837 · 56.9% peak14,094,774 · 89.1% peak14,094,774 · 89.1% peak15,821,86315,821,863 · 100.0% peak15,821,863 · 100.0% peak4,661,798 · 29.5% peak4,661,798 · 29.5% peak1,748,956 · 11.1% peak1,748,956 · 11.1% peak2,269,592 · 14.3% peak2,269,592 · 14.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 62542387 · peak 15821863 · CV 1.68

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0014 · σ=0.0294 · skew=0.10 (symmetric) · kurt=4.09 (leptokurtic (fat tails))118630 1-872.28bpbin -872.28bp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -872.28bp · n=1 · 9.1% peak-711.19bp-550.10bp-389.01bp 2-227.91bpbin -227.91bp · n=2 · 18.2% peakbin -227.91bp · n=2 · 18.2% peak 11-66.82bpbin -66.82bp · n=11 · 100.0% peakbin -66.82bp · n=11 · 100.0% peak 694.27bpbin 94.27bp · n=6 · 54.5% peakbin 94.27bp · n=6 · 54.5% peak 2255.37bpbin 255.37bp · n=2 · 18.2% peakbin 255.37bp · n=2 · 18.2% peak 1416.46bpbin 416.46bp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 416.46bp · n=1 · 9.1% peak577.55bp738.65bp 1899.74bpbin 899.74bp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 899.74bp · n=1 · 9.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.11 · kurt=5.02 · near 11 / mid 11 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.90 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0097
Mid price
$0.0097
24h change
+9.55%
Mark–mid spread
9.27 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0089

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.23)
μ MEAN0.0094$95% CI: [0.0092$, 0.0096$]
σ STD DEV0.0006$σ² = 0.003×10⁻⁴ · CV = 6.27%
med MEDIAN0.0092$Q₁ 0.0089$ · Q₃ 0.0097$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0023$ · IQR 0.0008$ (1.349σ→0.0008$)
min 0.0088$Q₁ 0.0089$med 0.0092$Q₃ 0.0097$max 0.0111$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.230right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.978mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.30
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.05
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.85
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=10.63
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.360049%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.114
σᵣ STD / h3.168831%σ²ᵣ = 10.041×10⁻⁴ · CV = 8.80×
σ ANNUALISED296.59%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 3.169%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)10.63excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)11.15strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.12approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂6.54leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 1.05
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+3154.03%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.96%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.960%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)7.800%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)5.771%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN12.63%4h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.960%VaR₉₉−7.800%ES₉₅−5.771%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 4h duration
PEAK1.11$
−12.63% drawdown over 4h
0.97$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSextreme fat tail · ES ≫ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 2.95× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 3.98× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +14.45% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
54.0 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.577 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0107
Bollinger MA
$0.0095
Bollinger lower
$0.0083

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.160within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.384lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.950strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+6.316significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.950
H = 0.950STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.160k=2-0.384k=3-0.205k=4+0.037k=5+0.0660+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.32)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.32)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$633.15k
Open interest (USD)
$352.30k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.80x
1h funding
-0.001332%
Funding (annualised)
-11.67%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
3.586× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
1.793× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
0.896×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 9.80% · worst -9.53% · typical |Δ| 1.81%MILD BULLISH +8.64%BEST+9.80%09hWORST-9.53%11hTYPICAL |Δ|1.81%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+8.64%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 4down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.82% · Σ +6.53%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.36% · Σ +2.86%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.09% · Σ -0.75%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +8.64%+22.14%-0.67%0.68% · 15h0.68% · 15h0.68%15h-0.56% · 16h-0.56% · 16h-0.56%16h0.10% · 17h0.10% · 17h0.10%17h-0.43% · 18h-0.43% · 18h-0.43%18h0.06% · 19h0.06% · 19h0.06%19h-0.52% · 20h-0.52% · 20h-0.52%20h1.24% · 21h1.24% · 21h1.24%21h-0.46% · 22h-0.46% · 22h-0.46%22h-0.18% · 23h-0.18% · 23h-0.18%23h1.15% · 00h1.15% · 00h1.15%00h2.37% · 01h2.37% · 01h2.37%01h0.07% · 02h0.07% · 02h0.07%02h1.32% · 03h1.32% · 03h1.32%03h1.23% · 04h1.23% · 04h1.23%04h2.18% · 05h2.18% · 05h2.18%05h-0.52% · 06h-0.52% · 06h-0.52%06h-1.27% · 07h-1.27% · 07h-1.27%07h1.67% · 08h1.67% · 08h1.67%08h9.80% · 09h9.80% · 09h9.80%09h★ BEST4.20% · 10h4.20% · 10h4.20%10h-9.53% · 11h-9.53% · 11h-9.53%11h▼ WORST-1.65% · 12h-1.65% · 12h-1.65%12h-2.01% · 13h-2.01% · 13h-2.01%13h-0.31% · 14h-0.31% · 14h-0.31%14hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+6.53%)RUNSup max 6 · down max 4BREADTH54% up · 46% down
13 up bars · 11 down · best 9.80% · worst -9.53% · typical |Δ| 1.813%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +7.76%FINAL+7.76%MAX DD-13.08%RECOVERYONGOING · 4 barsMAX RUN-UP+23.98%UNDERWATER15/25 (60%)STREAK↘ 4EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0776 · peak 1.2398 · range [0.9933, 1.2398]1.23980.9933break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.2398UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -13.08% · significant0%-13.08%▼ TROUGH -13.08%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -13.08%bar 22-25 · 4 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.78%bar 17-19 · 3 bars · recovered#3 -1.34%bar 3-10 · 8 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -13.08%)RECOVERYongoing · 4 barsTIME UNDER WATER60% of session · 15/25 bars
final equity 1.0776 (7.76%) · max DD -13.08% · time-under-water 15/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +15 / −4 (79% positive) · μ=38.99 · σ=44.54PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 1.21 (-0.85σ vs μ)156.7078.350.00-78.35-156.70μ = 38.99-21.44-21.44-2.57-2.57-0.26-0.26-6.85-6.8525.5125.5148.0748.0760.5960.5961.2561.2599.9299.92156.70156.7090.6790.6736.2536.2553.2953.2951.6051.6062.6162.6110.6010.607.797.795.945.941.211.21v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 1.215 · range [-21.44, 156.70] · μ 38.995 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=226.8553 · σ=221.0947 · range [45.3067, 611.0156] · R²=0.733▲ RISING +1243.19%σ EXTREME 97.46%LAST 608.5572611.0156469.5884328.1612186.733945.3067μ = 226.8553max 611.0156min 45.3067dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.73μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 608.56% · range [45.31%, 611.02%] · μ 226.86% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.150 · σ=0.294CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.102 (+0.86σ vs μ)0.5920.2960.000-0.296-0.592μ = -0.150-0.546-0.546-0.351-0.351-0.592-0.592-0.528-0.528-0.461-0.461-0.002-0.002-0.053-0.053-0.014-0.014-0.339-0.339-0.452-0.452-0.476-0.4760.1870.187-0.013-0.0130.0920.0920.2730.2730.0250.0250.1310.1310.1650.1650.1020.102v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.102 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
42.8842
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.3079
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2766
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.4262
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5685
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.3854
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6999
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7096
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0127
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.1023
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9185
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.031 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=9.62e-4 · top T=4.00h (18.5%) · top-3 cover 53.1%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.1e-31.6e-31.1e-35.3e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 8.12e-4 · 7.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.12e-4 · 7.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.06e-4 · 3.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.06e-4 · 3.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.32e-3 · 11.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.32e-3 · 11.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.92e-3 · 16.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.92e-3 · 16.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.08e-3 · 18.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.08e-3 · 18.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.13e-3 · 18.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.13e-3 · 18.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.80e-4 · 5.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.80e-4 · 5.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.03e-3 · 8.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.03e-3 · 8.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.24e-4 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.24e-4 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.53e-4 · 3.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.53e-4 · 3.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.88e-4 · 3.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.88e-4 · 3.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.15e-6 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.15e-6 · 0.0% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=4.00h#2T=4.80h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 18.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.155e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 0.40× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 0.40× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.13%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.13%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.40×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
0.40×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.20×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.10×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.0×0.4×0.8×1.2×1.6×2.0×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe 0.51400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.000
annualized 0.51
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.02%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.03%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.94×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.06×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 358% · APY -61% · Sharpe 1.19σ ann 301% · Sortino 1.10 · n 4999
-73%28%128%229%330%430%358.4%APR (simple)-60.5%APY (compound)300.7%Ann. vol σ119.2%Sharpe (ann)110.3%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.007% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0090.0100.0100.0110.0110.012t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:49:13 UTC
Snapshot age
116ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:49:13 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
281c3476401703ace25386488209190955a9c349e43887ce7c928d01d36f5a79 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$13.47K
bid $6.55K · ask $6.92K
Mid price
0.009715
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
22.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.011
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.181
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-SKR/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.00973015.23bp0.0097404FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00975642.58bp0.00978219FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.00975944.96bp0.00978620PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.00970312.42bp0.0097022FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00967243.94bp0.00963219FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.00966947.83bp0.00963120PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-1.332e-5
-0.00133% / hr
Annualised APR
-11.680%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
31.3d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
31.3d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE11.680%31.3d312.7d
SHORTPAY-11.680%31.3d312.7d

/api/asset/hl-SKR/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$62.54M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-SKR/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.130 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$35.07M
real volume
Sell weight
$27.01M
real volume
Net delta
$8.06M
buyers net
Imbalance
12.99%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
13.0%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-SKR/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 12.63% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 11:00:00Z3.0h0.011102→0.00970012.628%4
#22026-06-14 06:00:00Z1.0h0.009662→0.0094911.770%2
#32026-06-13 20:00:00Z0ms0.008917→0.0088380.886%1

/api/asset/hl-SKR/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
300.72%
σ per bar = 0.001311
Mean return (annualised)
358.40%
μ per bar = 0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
1.19
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
14.45%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 1914 bars

/api/asset/hl-SKR/risk · same metrics, JSON