HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

SPX

SPX-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-spx · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.35%
realized vol (ann.)
54.94%
max drawdown
1.48%
sharpe
0.53
ulcer index
0.75%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.60%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
38.55
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.42%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
20.39
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.35%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 30%
  • 24h change +1.35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-SPX/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.7s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.363
24h Δ · live
1.35%
24h vol · live
$1.0M
SPX · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.3643 · σ=0.0030 · range [0.3573, 0.3699] · R²=0.008▲ RISING +1.69%σ LOW 0.82%LAST 0.36330.36990.36670.36360.36040.3573μ = 0.3643max 0.3699min 0.3573dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.36
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=2,908,673 · μ=116346.9 · σ=134397.2 · CV=1.16BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=60165,905331,811497,716663,622μ = 116347663,621.750%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 663622 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.7s
$mark $
$0.3631
$mid $
$0.3632
◉prev-day close
$0.3583
Δ24h Δ %
+1.345%
$24h vol $
$1.03M
◐open interest $
$3.29M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.3643 · σ=0.0030 · range [0.3573, 0.3699] · R²=0.008▲ RISING +1.69%σ LOW 0.82%LAST 0.36330.36990.36670.36360.36040.3573μ = 0.3643max 0.3699min 0.3573dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.3631 · 24h 1.35% · range $[0.3573, 0.3699]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.3534, 0.3715] · σ=0.0030 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=51%BULLISH +1.73%CLOSE 0.3633 vs OPEN 0.3571 (+1.73%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.36330.37150.36700.36250.35790.3534μ close = 0.3643O0.357 H0.361 L0.355 C0.357 (+0.04%)O0.357 H0.361 L0.355 C0.357 (+0.04%)O0.357 H0.363 L0.353 C0.362 (+1.44%)O0.357 H0.363 L0.353 C0.362 (+1.44%)O0.363 H0.372 L0.360 C0.368 (+1.42%)O0.363 H0.372 L0.360 C0.368 (+1.42%)O0.367 H0.369 L0.364 C0.365 (-0.58%)O0.367 H0.369 L0.364 C0.365 (-0.58%)O0.365 H0.368 L0.360 C0.366 (+0.34%)O0.365 H0.368 L0.360 C0.366 (+0.34%)O0.366 H0.370 L0.362 C0.362 (-1.18%)O0.366 H0.370 L0.362 C0.362 (-1.18%)O0.361 H0.367 L0.361 C0.366 (+1.32%)O0.361 H0.367 L0.361 C0.366 (+1.32%)O0.366 H0.366 L0.363 C0.365 (-0.18%)O0.366 H0.366 L0.363 C0.365 (-0.18%)O0.365 H0.365 L0.362 C0.363 (-0.42%)O0.365 H0.365 L0.362 C0.363 (-0.42%)O0.364 H0.366 L0.363 C0.366 (+0.69%)O0.364 H0.366 L0.363 C0.366 (+0.69%)O0.366 H0.370 L0.363 C0.364 (-0.52%)O0.366 H0.370 L0.363 C0.364 (-0.52%)O0.364 H0.368 L0.364 C0.367 (+0.82%)O0.364 H0.368 L0.364 C0.367 (+0.82%)O0.368 H0.371 L0.365 C0.370 (+0.60%)O0.368 H0.371 L0.365 C0.370 (+0.60%)-1.5%O0.370 H0.371 L0.364 C0.365 (-1.50%)O0.370 H0.371 L0.364 C0.365 (-1.50%)O0.365 H0.365 L0.362 C0.363 (-0.63%)O0.365 H0.365 L0.362 C0.363 (-0.63%)O0.363 H0.363 L0.357 C0.358 (-1.31%)O0.363 H0.363 L0.357 C0.358 (-1.31%)O0.358 H0.363 L0.357 C0.360 (+0.78%)O0.358 H0.363 L0.357 C0.360 (+0.78%)O0.360 H0.365 L0.360 C0.365 (+1.29%)O0.360 H0.365 L0.360 C0.365 (+1.29%)O0.365 H0.371 L0.364 C0.368 (+0.74%)O0.365 H0.371 L0.364 C0.368 (+0.74%)O0.367 H0.371 L0.365 C0.365 (-0.57%)O0.367 H0.371 L0.365 C0.365 (-0.57%)O0.365 H0.366 L0.362 C0.364 (-0.49%)O0.365 H0.366 L0.362 C0.364 (-0.49%)O0.364 H0.365 L0.362 C0.363 (-0.07%)O0.364 H0.365 L0.362 C0.363 (-0.07%)O0.364 H0.368 L0.363 C0.367 (+1.04%)O0.364 H0.368 L0.363 C0.367 (+1.04%)O0.367 H0.368 L0.363 C0.364 (-0.77%)O0.367 H0.368 L0.363 C0.364 (-0.77%)O0.364 H0.365 L0.363 C0.363 (-0.18%)O0.364 H0.365 L0.363 C0.363 (-0.18%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=2,908,673 · μ=116346.9 · σ=134397.2 · CV=1.16BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=60165,905331,811497,716663,622μ = 116347137,258.4 · 20.7% peak137,258.4 · 20.7% peak311,472.6 · 46.9% peak311,472.6 · 46.9% peak164,803 · 24.8% peak164,803 · 24.8% peak125,235 · 18.9% peak125,235 · 18.9% peak663,621.7663,621.7 · 100.0% peak663,621.7 · 100.0% peak110,861.5 · 16.7% peak110,861.5 · 16.7% peak88,264.9 · 13.3% peak88,264.9 · 13.3% peak42,351.7 · 6.4% peak42,351.7 · 6.4% peak61,242.7 · 9.2% peak61,242.7 · 9.2% peak19,480.7 · 2.9% peak19,480.7 · 2.9% peak42,228.1 · 6.4% peak42,228.1 · 6.4% peak55,898.3 · 8.4% peak55,898.3 · 8.4% peak73,556 · 11.1% peak73,556 · 11.1% peak90,995.4 · 13.7% peak90,995.4 · 13.7% peak29,589.6 · 4.5% peak29,589.6 · 4.5% peak150,679.5 · 22.7% peak150,679.5 · 22.7% peak35,748.6 · 5.4% peak35,748.6 · 5.4% peak62,302.4 · 9.4% peak62,302.4 · 9.4% peak188,351.5 · 28.4% peak188,351.5 · 28.4% peak48,302.8 · 7.3% peak48,302.8 · 7.3% peak40,275.1 · 6.1% peak40,275.1 · 6.1% peak25,094.8 · 3.8% peak25,094.8 · 3.8% peak50,492.3 · 7.6% peak50,492.3 · 7.6% peak230,890.6 · 34.8% peak230,890.6 · 34.8% peak59,676.2 · 9.0% peak59,676.2 · 9.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 2908673 · peak 663622 · CV 1.16

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0004 · σ=0.0090 · skew=0.07 (symmetric) · kurt=-1.40 (platykurtic (thin tails))43210 3-127.68bpbin -127.68bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -127.68bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 1-103.16bpbin -103.16bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -103.16bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 2-78.64bpbin -78.64bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -78.64bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 4-54.12bpbin -54.12bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -54.12bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 2-29.61bpbin -29.61bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -29.61bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1-5.09bpbin -5.09bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -5.09bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 119.43bpbin 19.43bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 19.43bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak43.95bp 468.47bpbin 68.47bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 68.47bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 192.98bpbin 92.98bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 92.98bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 3117.50bpbin 117.50bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 117.50bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 2142.02bpbin 142.02bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 142.02bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.04 · kurt=-1.36 · near 19 / mid 5 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.3631
Mid price
$0.3632
24h change
+1.35%
Mark–mid spread
1.93 bps
Prev-day close
$0.3583

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.57)
μ MEAN0.3643$95% CI: [0.3631$, 0.3655$]
σ STD DEV0.0030$σ² = 0.088×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.82%
med MEDIAN0.3648$Q₁ 0.3633$ · Q₃ 0.3662$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0126$ · IQR 0.0029$ (1.349σ→0.0040$)
min 0.3573$Q₁ 0.3633$med 0.3648$Q₃ 0.3662$max 0.3699$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.573left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.088mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.15
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.39
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.25
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=7.02
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.069625%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.075
σᵣ STD / h0.927958%σ²ᵣ = 0.861×10⁻⁴ · CV = 13.33×
σ ANNUALISED86.85%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.928%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)7.02excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)8.15strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.04approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.39platykurtic · thin tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.16
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+609.92%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.29%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.289%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.378%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.352%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.27%3h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.289%VaR₉₉−1.378%ES₉₅−1.352%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 3h duration
PEAK36.99$
−3.27% drawdown over 3h
35.78$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.05× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.07× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.38% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
53.1 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.392 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.3699
Bollinger MA
$0.3645
Bollinger lower
$0.3590

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.079within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.123lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.689persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.436fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.689
H = 0.689PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.079k=2-0.123k=3-0.275k=4-0.182k=5+0.3330+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.44)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.46high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.44)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.03M
Open interest (USD)
$3.29M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.31x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
8.086× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
4.043× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.021×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.54% · worst -1.40% · typical |Δ| 0.82%MILD BULLISH +1.67%BEST+1.54%13hWORST-1.40%00hTYPICAL |Δ|0.82%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.67%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.21% · Σ -1.69%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.29% · Σ +2.35%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.13% · Σ +1.01%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.67%+3.47%0.00%1.35% · 12h1.35% · 12h1.35%12h1.54% · 13h1.54% · 13h1.54%13h★ BEST-0.73% · 14h-0.73% · 14h-0.73%14h0.30% · 15h0.30% · 15h0.30%15h-1.20% · 16h-1.20% · 16h-1.20%16h1.21% · 17h1.21% · 17h1.21%17h-0.33% · 18h-0.33% · 18h-0.33%18h-0.48% · 19h-0.48% · 19h-0.48%19h0.77% · 20h0.77% · 20h0.77%20h-0.61% · 21h-0.61% · 21h-0.61%21h0.94% · 22h0.94% · 22h0.94%22h0.70% · 23h0.70% · 23h0.70%23h-1.40% · 00h-1.40% · 00h-1.40%00h▼ WORST-0.62% · 01h-0.62% · 01h-0.62%01h-1.30% · 02h-1.30% · 02h-1.30%02h0.74% · 03h0.74% · 03h0.74%03h1.28% · 04h1.28% · 04h1.28%04h0.74% · 05h0.74% · 05h0.74%05h-0.68% · 06h-0.68% · 06h-0.68%06h-0.46% · 07h-0.46% · 07h-0.46%07h-0.06% · 08h-0.06% · 08h-0.06%08h1.07% · 09h1.07% · 09h1.07%09h-0.94% · 10h-0.94% · 10h-0.94%10h-0.18% · 11h-0.18% · 11h-0.18%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+2.35%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 1.54% · worst -1.40% · typical |Δ| 0.818%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.58%FINAL+1.58%MAX DD-3.29%RECOVERYONGOING · 12 barsMAX RUN-UP+3.48%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0158 · peak 1.0348 · range [1.0000, 1.0348]1.03481.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0348UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.29% · moderate0%-3.29%▼ TROUGH -3.29%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.29%bar 14-25 · 12 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.62%bar 4-12 · 9 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.29%)RECOVERYongoing · 12 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 1.0158 (1.58%) · max DD -3.29% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=2.03 · σ=20.92MIXED EDGELAST -27.71 (-1.42σ vs μ)36.1518.070.00-18.07-36.15μ = 2.0333.4033.4011.5311.53-22.34-22.345.125.12-10.76-10.7628.9728.9721.8821.88-1.30-1.30-3.51-3.51-36.15-36.15-13.67-13.67-8.04-8.04-7.47-7.472.542.544.984.9831.5631.5635.8635.86-6.29-6.29-27.71-27.71v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -27.708 · range [-36.15, 35.86] · μ 2.031 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=87.9519 · σ=13.8963 · range [65.7300, 108.6223] · R²=0.069▼ FALLING -39.37%σ EXTREME 15.80%LAST 65.7300108.622397.899287.176276.453165.7300μ = 87.9519max 108.6223min 65.7300dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.07μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 65.73% · range [65.73%, 108.62%] · μ 87.95% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.155 · σ=0.354CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.275 (-0.34σ vs μ)0.6400.3200.000-0.320-0.640μ = -0.155-0.182-0.182-0.597-0.597-0.640-0.640-0.610-0.610-0.584-0.584-0.476-0.476-0.293-0.293-0.380-0.380-0.113-0.1130.0970.097-0.010-0.0100.0600.0600.3870.3870.2270.2270.1240.1240.4780.4780.2260.226-0.383-0.383-0.275-0.275v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.275 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.9435
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3784
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.5126
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1840
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-4.1846
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0011
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4555
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6487
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.0714
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.0362
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.685 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=8.93e-5 · top T=4.80h (24.0%) · top-3 cover 56.2%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.6e-41.9e-41.3e-46.4e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.03e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.03e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.71e-8 · 0.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.71e-8 · 0.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.62e-4 · 15.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.62e-4 · 15.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.95e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.95e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.57e-4 · 24.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.57e-4 · 24.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.08e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.08e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.22e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.22e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.74e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.74e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.83e-4 · 17.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.83e-4 · 17.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.90e-5 · 8.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.90e-5 · 8.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.22e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.22e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.62e-4 · 15.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.62e-4 · 15.2% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=4.80h#2T=2.67h#3T=2.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.80h (freq 0.208) · concentrates 24.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.072e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.002% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.002% · σ 0.07%
μ per barmean
-0.002%
σ per barvol
0.07%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-35.54×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.02%0.01%0.04%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -53.37400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.023
annualized -53.37
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -56.48σ ann 159% · Sortino -36.97 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-6778%-5384%-3990%-2597%-1203%191%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)158.9%Ann. vol σ-5647.9%Sharpe (ann)-3697.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.3480.3620.3770.3910.4050.420t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:34:45 UTC
Snapshot age
3.7s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:34:50 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
9930fade5512e69ca2e37187a9029493745e1534f836e20a1c613200fa051839 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.51K
bid $50 · ask $1.46K
Depth within 10bp
$13.70K
bid $3.59K · ask $10.11K
Depth within 50bp
$47.79K
bid $23.98K · ask $23.81K
Mid price
0.363170
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.005
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.319
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-SPX/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.3632562.36bp0.3632902FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.3634246.99bp0.3634808FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.36364713.12bp0.36397020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.3629426.27bp0.3629103FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.36278210.69bp0.36258011FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.36259415.86bp0.36238020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-SPX/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$2.91M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-SPX/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.237 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.71M
real volume
Sell weight
$1.06M
real volume
Net delta
$656.57K
buyers net
Imbalance
23.69%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
23.7%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-SPX/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 7 found · deepest 3.27% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-20 00:00:00Z3.0h0.369890→0.3578103.266%4
#22026-06-19 16:00:00Z0ms0.367750→0.3618201.613%1
#32026-06-20 06:00:00Z2.0h0.367840→0.3634701.188%3

/api/asset/hl-SPX/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
158.93%
σ per bar = 0.000693
Mean return (annualised)
-8976.25%
μ per bar = -0.000017
Sharpe (rf=0)
-56.48
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
10.15%
peak 0.40 → trough 0.36 over 611 bars

/api/asset/hl-SPX/risk · same metrics, JSON