HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

STABLE

STABLE-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-stable · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.78%
realized vol (ann.)
116.66%
max drawdown
1.89%
sharpe
-6.21
ulcer index
1.07%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.96%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-675.56
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.80%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.98
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-403.36
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.98
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.78%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-168.88%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 38%
  • 24h change -3.78%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 30.7bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-STABLE/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.7s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.035
24h Δ · live
-3.78%
24h vol · live
$1.0M
STABLE · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0362 · σ=0.0006 · range [0.0350, 0.0372] · R²=0.280▼ FALLING -3.25%σ NORMAL 1.80%LAST 0.03510.03720.03660.03610.03550.0350μ = 0.0362max 0.0372min 0.0350dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.28μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.04
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.9%Short fee 50.1%SHORT FEE50.1%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.04% (99.96pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.9%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.1%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.019278% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=27,784,617 · μ=1111384.7 · σ=2819936.7 · CV=2.54BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=2103,418,6236,837,24510,255,86813,674,490μ = 111138513,674,49050%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 13674490 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.7s
$mark $
$0.0351
$mid $
$0.0351
◉prev-day close
$0.0365
Δ24h Δ %
-3.778%
$24h vol $
$1.00M
◐open interest $
$2.47M
%funding (1h)
-0.019278%
%funding (yr)
-168.88%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0362 · σ=0.0006 · range [0.0350, 0.0372] · R²=0.280▼ FALLING -3.25%σ NORMAL 1.80%LAST 0.03510.03720.03660.03610.03550.0350μ = 0.0362max 0.0372min 0.0350dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.28μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0351 · 24h -3.78% · range $[0.0350, 0.0372]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 9 · down 16 (36% up) · range [0.0324, 0.0375] · σ=0.0006 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=57%STRONG BEARISH -3.80%CLOSE 0.0351 vs OPEN 0.0365 (-3.80%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.03510.03750.03620.03500.03370.0324μ close = 0.0362O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.57%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.57%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-1.13%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-1.13%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (+1.15%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (+1.15%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.69%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.69%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.67%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.67%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.036 C0.037 (+1.36%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.036 C0.037 (+1.36%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.037 (+0.47%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.037 (+0.47%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.036 (-1.12%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.036 (-1.12%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.036 C0.037 (+0.77%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.036 C0.037 (+0.77%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.037 (-0.66%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.037 (-0.66%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.63%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.63%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.12%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.12%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.55%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.55%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.03%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.03%)2.8%O0.036 H0.037 L0.036 C0.037 (+2.77%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.036 C0.037 (+2.77%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.037 C0.037 (-1.36%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.037 C0.037 (-1.36%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.037 C0.037 (+1.60%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.037 C0.037 (+1.60%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.033 C0.037 (-1.55%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.033 C0.037 (-1.55%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.036 (-2.42%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.036 (-2.42%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.77%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.77%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.032 C0.035 (-0.99%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.032 C0.035 (-0.99%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.63%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.63%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.35%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.35%)O0.035 H0.036 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.50%)O0.035 H0.036 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.50%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.09%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.09%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=27,784,617 · μ=1111384.7 · σ=2819936.7 · CV=2.54BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=2103,418,6236,837,24510,255,86813,674,490μ = 1111385167,445 · 1.2% peak167,445 · 1.2% peak332,386 · 2.4% peak332,386 · 2.4% peak1,073,436 · 7.8% peak1,073,436 · 7.8% peak211,283 · 1.5% peak211,283 · 1.5% peak134,508 · 1.0% peak134,508 · 1.0% peak224,644 · 1.6% peak224,644 · 1.6% peak219,667 · 1.6% peak219,667 · 1.6% peak690,787 · 5.1% peak690,787 · 5.1% peak101,543 · 0.7% peak101,543 · 0.7% peak90,839 · 0.7% peak90,839 · 0.7% peak642,497 · 4.7% peak642,497 · 4.7% peak311,046 · 2.3% peak311,046 · 2.3% peak252,279 · 1.8% peak252,279 · 1.8% peak93,895 · 0.7% peak93,895 · 0.7% peak349,850 · 2.6% peak349,850 · 2.6% peak345,227 · 2.5% peak345,227 · 2.5% peak165,082 · 1.2% peak165,082 · 1.2% peak5,365,330 · 39.2% peak5,365,330 · 39.2% peak1,515,741 · 11.1% peak1,515,741 · 11.1% peak278,136 · 2.0% peak278,136 · 2.0% peak13,674,49013,674,490 · 100.0% peak13,674,490 · 100.0% peak189,306 · 1.4% peak189,306 · 1.4% peak479,516 · 3.5% peak479,516 · 3.5% peak689,974 · 5.0% peak689,974 · 5.0% peak185,710 · 1.4% peak185,710 · 1.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 27784617 · peak 13674490 · CV 2.54

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0014 · σ=0.0107 · skew=0.51 (right-skewed) · kurt=0.15 (mesokurtic)75420 1-230.28bpbin -230.28bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -230.28bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak-186.29bp 2-142.30bpbin -142.30bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -142.30bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 3-98.30bpbin -98.30bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin -98.30bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 7-54.31bpbin -54.31bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin -54.31bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 3-10.32bpbin -10.32bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin -10.32bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 233.67bpbin 33.67bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin 33.67bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 277.67bpbin 77.67bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin 77.67bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 2121.66bpbin 121.66bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin 121.66bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 1165.65bpbin 165.65bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 165.65bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak209.65bp 1253.64bpbin 253.64bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 253.64bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.47 · kurt=0.32 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0351
Mid price
$0.0351
24h change
-3.78%
Mark–mid spread
3.13 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0365

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0362$95% CI: [0.0359$, 0.0364$]
σ STD DEV0.0006$σ² = 0.004×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.80%
med MEDIAN0.0363$Q₁ 0.0358$ · Q₃ 0.0366$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0022$ · IQR 0.0008$ (1.349σ→0.0009$)
min 0.0350$Q₁ 0.0358$med 0.0363$Q₃ 0.0366$max 0.0372$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.377approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.950mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.22
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.13
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.46
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-11.17
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.137722%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.119
σᵣ STD / h1.153593%σ²ᵣ = 1.331×10⁻⁴ · CV = 8.38×
σ ANNUALISED107.97%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.154%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-11.17negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-12.00downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.50approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.70mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.07
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1206.44%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.42%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.421%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.273%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.980%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN6.04%6h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.421%VaR₉₉−2.273%ES₉₅−1.980%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 6h duration
PEAK3.72$
−6.04% drawdown over 6h
3.50$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.39× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.60× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +6.43% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
39.6 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.153 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0376
Bollinger MA
$0.0361
Bollinger lower
$0.0347

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.193within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.125lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.886strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.991significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.886
H = 0.886STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.193k=2+0.125k=3+0.136k=4-0.376k=5-0.1560+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.99)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.96very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.99)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.00M
Open interest (USD)
$2.47M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.41x
1h funding
-0.019278%
Funding (annualised)
-168.88%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.76% · worst -2.52% · typical |Δ| 0.90%MILD BEARISH -3.31%BEST+2.76%02hWORST-2.52%06hTYPICAL |Δ|0.90%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.31%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.25% · Σ -2.01%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.26% · Σ -2.11%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.10% · Σ +0.82%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.31%+2.41%-3.82%-1.33% · 13h-1.33% · 13h-1.33%13h1.24% · 14h1.24% · 14h1.24%14h-0.67% · 15h-0.67% · 15h-0.67%15h0.63% · 16h0.63% · 16h0.63%16h1.36% · 17h1.36% · 17h1.36%17h0.13% · 18h0.13% · 18h0.13%18h-1.12% · 19h-1.12% · 19h-1.12%19h0.81% · 20h0.81% · 20h0.81%20h-0.55% · 21h-0.55% · 21h-0.55%21h-0.56% · 22h-0.56% · 22h-0.56%22h0.11% · 23h0.11% · 23h0.11%23h-0.55% · 00h-0.55% · 00h-0.55%00h-0.02% · 01h-0.02% · 01h-0.02%01h2.76% · 02h2.76% · 02h2.76%02h★ BEST-1.44% · 03h-1.44% · 03h-1.44%03h1.60% · 04h1.60% · 04h1.60%04h-1.19% · 05h-1.19% · 05h-1.19%05h-2.52% · 06h-2.52% · 06h-2.52%06h▼ WORST-0.64% · 07h-0.64% · 07h-0.64%07h-1.09% · 08h-1.09% · 08h-1.09%08h-0.45% · 09h-0.45% · 09h-0.45%09h-0.34% · 10h-0.34% · 10h-0.34%10h0.50% · 11h0.50% · 11h0.50%11h0.01% · 12h0.01% · 12h0.01%12hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.82%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 6BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 2.76% · worst -2.52% · typical |Δ| 0.902%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-3.40%)FINAL-3.40%MAX DD-6.09%RECOVERYONGOING · 8 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.33%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9660 · peak 1.0233 · range [0.9610, 1.0233]1.02330.9610break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0233UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -6.09% · significant0%-6.09%▼ TROUGH -6.09%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -6.09%bar 18-25 · 8 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.88%bar 8-14 · 7 bars · recovered#3 -1.44%bar 16-16 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -6.09%)RECOVERYongoing · 8 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.9660 (-3.40%) · max DD -6.09% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-17.24 · σ=40.34MIXED EDGELAST -57.06 (-0.99σ vs μ)121.0760.540.00-60.54-121.07μ = -17.2420.0520.0524.4224.4219.1319.1321.4321.431.231.23-26.88-26.88-42.98-42.98-21.65-21.6514.2914.293.243.2425.2125.2110.8410.84-6.41-6.41-11.20-11.20-60.25-60.25-49.79-49.79-121.07-121.07-70.11-70.11-57.06-57.06v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -57.062 · range [-121.07, 25.21] · μ -17.239 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=107.1809 · σ=41.2336 · range [51.1770, 187.5104] · R²=0.057▼ FALLING -48.90%σ EXTREME 38.47%LAST 51.1770187.5104153.4270119.343785.260451.1770μ = 107.1809max 187.5104min 51.1770dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.06μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 51.18% · range [51.18%, 187.51%] · μ 107.18% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.243 · σ=0.275MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.407 (+2.36σ vs μ)0.6760.3380.000-0.338-0.676μ = -0.243-0.438-0.438-0.159-0.159-0.152-0.152-0.181-0.181-0.230-0.230-0.676-0.676-0.585-0.585-0.310-0.3100.0360.036-0.413-0.413-0.593-0.593-0.642-0.642-0.251-0.251-0.222-0.222-0.223-0.223-0.056-0.0560.0010.0010.0610.0610.4070.407v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.407 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.4901
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4747
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.2215
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2035
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.2134
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6666
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.5732
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5665
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4005
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0769
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.3951
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6928
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.880 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.38e-4 · top T=3.00h (21.3%) · top-3 cover 50.9%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)3.5e-42.6e-41.8e-48.8e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 9.84e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 9.84e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.59e-4 · 9.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.59e-4 · 9.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.80e-4 · 10.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.80e-4 · 10.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.87e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.87e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.41e-5 · 1.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.41e-5 · 1.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.82e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.82e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.11e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.11e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.52e-4 · 21.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.52e-4 · 21.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.15e-4 · 13.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.15e-4 · 13.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.47e-4 · 15.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.47e-4 · 15.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.74e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.74e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.39e-4 · 14.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.39e-4 · 14.5% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=2.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 21.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.650e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.05%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.05%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-30.44×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -39.91400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.017
annualized -39.91
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -36.59σ ann 120% · Sortino -29.62 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-4391%-3484%-2577%-1670%-763%144%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)120.2%Ann. vol σ-3659.1%Sharpe (ann)-2962.0%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0330.0340.0360.0370.0380.039t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:19:58 UTC
Snapshot age
3.7s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:20:02 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
b83d0fe0670f95c6221ececce1161396002da84db362d45e353b359717ebbb80 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?17¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,464HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.2HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$61.04

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$805
bid $13 · ask $792
Depth within 10bp
$2.49K
bid $519 · ask $1.97K
Depth within 50bp
$20.79K
bid $9.52K · ask $11.27K
Mid price
0.035129
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
8.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.082
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.021
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-STABLE/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0351454.50bp0.0351483FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.03519017.49bp0.03524119FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.03519619.12bp0.03524220PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0350998.68bp0.0350863FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.03504623.59bp0.03499720PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.03504623.59bp0.03499720PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-1.928e-4
-0.01928% / hr
Annualised APR
-168.992%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
2.2d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
2.2d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE168.992%2.2d21.6d
SHORTPAY-168.992%2.2d21.6d

/api/asset/hl-STABLE/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$27.78M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-STABLE/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.750 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$3.46M
real volume
Sell weight
$24.16M
real volume
Net delta
$20.71M
sellers net
Imbalance
-74.98%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
75.0%
one-sided / toxic
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-STABLE/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 6.04% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 05:00:00Z5.0h0.037210→0.0349626.041%6
#22026-06-13 21:00:00Z4.0h0.036827→0.0361401.865%5
#32026-06-14 03:00:00Z0ms0.037150→0.0366201.427%1

/api/asset/hl-STABLE/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
120.23%
σ per bar = 0.000524
Mean return (annualised)
-4399.19%
μ per bar = -0.000008
Sharpe (rf=0)
-36.59
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
7.57%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.03 over 3402 bars

/api/asset/hl-STABLE/risk · same metrics, JSON