HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

TAO

TAO-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-tao · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.70%
realized vol (ann.)
134.08%
max drawdown
1.86%
sharpe
-55.90
ulcer index
1.14%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.02%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-6595.44
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.74%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.89
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-4309.59
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.89
upside/downside
roll spread
1.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
634
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.70%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 30%
  • 24h change +1.70%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-TAO/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH828ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$231.450
24h Δ · live
1.70%
24h vol · live
$7.2M
TAO · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=227.1460 · σ=2.6079 · range [222.5600, 232.9500] · R²=0.274▲ RISING +1.74%σ NORMAL 1.15%LAST 231.4900232.9500230.3525227.7550225.1575222.5600μ = 227.1460max 232.9500min 222.5600dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.27μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $231.49
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=35,217 · μ=1408.7 · σ=809.7 · CV=0.57STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1108541,7092,5633,418μ = 14093,417.550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 3418 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
828ms
$mark $
$231.45
$mid $
$231.39
◉prev-day close
$227.58
Δ24h Δ %
+1.701%
$24h vol $
$7.22M
◐open interest $
$20.80M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=227.1460 · σ=2.6079 · range [222.5600, 232.9500] · R²=0.274▲ RISING +1.74%σ NORMAL 1.15%LAST 231.4900232.9500230.3525227.7550225.1575222.5600μ = 227.1460max 232.9500min 222.5600dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.27μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $231.4500 · 24h 1.70% · range $[222.5600, 232.9500]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [222.0200, 234.8200] · σ=2.6079 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=48%BULLISH +0.89%CLOSE 231.4900 vs OPEN 229.4400 (+0.89%)&#9650; CLOSE 231.4900234.8200231.6200228.4200225.2200222.0200μ close = 227.1460O229.440 H229.540 L226.360 C227.530 (-0.83%)O229.440 H229.540 L226.360 C227.530 (-0.83%)O227.580 H228.620 L226.820 C227.270 (-0.14%)O227.580 H228.620 L226.820 C227.270 (-0.14%)O227.270 H227.460 L225.310 C226.510 (-0.33%)O227.270 H227.460 L225.310 C226.510 (-0.33%)O226.580 H226.620 L224.700 C226.070 (-0.23%)O226.580 H226.620 L224.700 C226.070 (-0.23%)O226.300 H227.420 L224.930 C225.530 (-0.34%)O226.300 H227.420 L224.930 C225.530 (-0.34%)O225.520 H228.300 L225.150 C227.880 (+1.05%)O225.520 H228.300 L225.150 C227.880 (+1.05%)O227.930 H230.250 L226.150 C228.870 (+0.41%)O227.930 H230.250 L226.150 C228.870 (+0.41%)O228.670 H229.160 L225.420 C225.640 (-1.33%)O228.670 H229.160 L225.420 C225.640 (-1.33%)O225.690 H225.810 L223.140 C224.200 (-0.66%)O225.690 H225.810 L223.140 C224.200 (-0.66%)O224.270 H226.130 L222.220 C222.560 (-0.76%)O224.270 H226.130 L222.220 C222.560 (-0.76%)1.5%O222.800 H226.090 L222.020 C226.070 (+1.47%)O222.800 H226.090 L222.020 C226.070 (+1.47%)O226.050 H227.480 L224.940 C226.160 (+0.05%)O226.050 H227.480 L224.940 C226.160 (+0.05%)O226.080 H226.500 L222.600 C223.610 (-1.09%)O226.080 H226.500 L222.600 C223.610 (-1.09%)O223.620 H225.130 L222.580 C224.670 (+0.47%)O223.620 H225.130 L222.580 C224.670 (+0.47%)O225.060 H226.160 L223.350 C223.930 (-0.50%)O225.060 H226.160 L223.350 C223.930 (-0.50%)O223.850 H227.020 L223.510 C226.340 (+1.11%)O223.850 H227.020 L223.510 C226.340 (+1.11%)O226.350 H229.700 L226.120 C228.710 (+1.04%)O226.350 H229.700 L226.120 C228.710 (+1.04%)O228.770 H229.580 L227.460 C227.930 (-0.37%)O228.770 H229.580 L227.460 C227.930 (-0.37%)O227.800 H228.900 L226.690 C228.340 (+0.24%)O227.800 H228.900 L226.690 C228.340 (+0.24%)O228.270 H228.420 L226.320 C226.720 (-0.68%)O228.270 H228.420 L226.320 C226.720 (-0.68%)O226.640 H228.800 L226.490 C227.570 (+0.41%)O226.640 H228.800 L226.490 C227.570 (+0.41%)O227.840 H230.350 L227.600 C229.680 (+0.81%)O227.840 H230.350 L227.600 C229.680 (+0.81%)O229.760 H233.200 L229.540 C232.950 (+1.39%)O229.760 H233.200 L229.540 C232.950 (+1.39%)O233.090 H234.820 L231.500 C232.420 (-0.29%)O233.090 H234.820 L231.500 C232.420 (-0.29%)O232.410 H232.450 L230.010 C231.490 (-0.40%)O232.410 H232.450 L230.010 C231.490 (-0.40%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=35,217 · μ=1408.7 · σ=809.7 · CV=0.57STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1108541,7092,5633,418μ = 14093,417.53,417.5 · 100.0% peak3,417.5 · 100.0% peak591.236 · 17.3% peak591.236 · 17.3% peak733.896 · 21.5% peak733.896 · 21.5% peak1,594.739 · 46.7% peak1,594.739 · 46.7% peak543.803 · 15.9% peak543.803 · 15.9% peak2,191.217 · 64.1% peak2,191.217 · 64.1% peak1,369.184 · 40.1% peak1,369.184 · 40.1% peak2,782.387 · 81.4% peak2,782.387 · 81.4% peak2,374.925 · 69.5% peak2,374.925 · 69.5% peak1,321.103 · 38.7% peak1,321.103 · 38.7% peak1,787.196 · 52.3% peak1,787.196 · 52.3% peak1,684.251 · 49.3% peak1,684.251 · 49.3% peak2,587.039 · 75.7% peak2,587.039 · 75.7% peak1,091.535 · 31.9% peak1,091.535 · 31.9% peak1,396.904 · 40.9% peak1,396.904 · 40.9% peak1,036.372 · 30.3% peak1,036.372 · 30.3% peak1,282.641 · 37.5% peak1,282.641 · 37.5% peak779.257 · 22.8% peak779.257 · 22.8% peak549.44 · 16.1% peak549.44 · 16.1% peak634.242 · 18.6% peak634.242 · 18.6% peak329.869 · 9.7% peak329.869 · 9.7% peak679.805 · 19.9% peak679.805 · 19.9% peak2,014.443 · 58.9% peak2,014.443 · 58.9% peak1,780.227 · 52.1% peak1,780.227 · 52.1% peak664.257 · 19.4% peak664.257 · 19.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 35217 · peak 3418 · CV 0.57

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0007 · σ=0.0076 · skew=0.27 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.85 (mesokurtic)75420 1-129.69bpbin -129.69bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -129.69bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 1-104.81bpbin -104.81bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -104.81bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 2-79.92bpbin -79.92bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -79.92bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 1-55.04bpbin -55.04bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -55.04bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 7-30.15bpbin -30.15bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin -30.15bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 2-5.27bpbin -5.27bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -5.27bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 119.62bpbin 19.62bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 19.62bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 344.50bpbin 44.50bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin 44.50bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak69.38bp 394.27bpbin 94.27bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin 94.27bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 1119.15bpbin 119.15bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 119.15bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 2144.04bpbin 144.04bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin 144.04bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.22 · kurt=-0.73 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$231.45
Mid price
$231.39
24h change
+1.70%
Mark–mid spread
2.59 bps
Prev-day close
$227.58

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.51)
μ MEAN227.1460$95% CI: [226.1237$, 228.1683$]
σ STD DEV2.6079$σ² = 6.801 · CV = 1.15%
med MEDIAN226.7200$Q₁ 225.6400$ · Q₃ 228.3400$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 10.3900$ · IQR 2.7000$ (1.349σ→3.5180$)
min 222.5600$Q₁ 225.6400$med 226.7200$Q₃ 228.3400$max 232.9500$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.509right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.269mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.16
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.30
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.98
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=8.48
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.071894%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.091
σᵣ STD / h0.793618%σ²ᵣ = 0.630×10⁻⁴ · CV = 11.04×
σ ANNUALISED74.28%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.794%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)8.48excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)10.42strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.23approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.61mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.23
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+629.79%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.07%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.074%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.355%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.278%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.76%3h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.074%VaR₉₉−1.355%ES₉₅−1.278%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 3h duration
PEAK22887.00$
−2.76% drawdown over 3h
22256.00$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.19× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.26× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.84% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
58.0 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.864 · within band
Bollinger upper
$233.0633
Bollinger MA
$227.2870
Bollinger lower
$221.5107

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.034within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.286lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.597persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.947significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.597
H = 0.597PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=5
k=1+0.034k=2-0.286k=3-0.307k=4-0.136k=5 ★+0.5160+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.95)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.23moderate · 1-step ahead inferrable|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.95)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$7.22M
Open interest (USD)
$20.80M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.35x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.56% · worst -1.42% · typical |Δ| 0.64%MILD BULLISH +1.73%BEST+1.56%17hWORST-1.42%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.64%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.73%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.15% · Σ +1.21%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.18% · Σ -1.47%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.25% · Σ +1.99%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.73%+2.35%-2.21%-0.11% · 08h-0.11% · 08h-0.11%08h-0.33% · 09h-0.33% · 09h-0.33%09h-0.19% · 10h-0.19% · 10h-0.19%10h-0.24% · 11h-0.24% · 11h-0.24%11h1.04% · 12h1.04% · 12h1.04%12h0.43% · 13h0.43% · 13h0.43%13h-1.42% · 14h-1.42% · 14h-1.42%14h▼ WORST-0.64% · 15h-0.64% · 15h-0.64%15h-0.73% · 16h-0.73% · 16h-0.73%16h1.56% · 17h1.56% · 17h1.56%17h★ BEST0.04% · 18h0.04% · 18h0.04%18h-1.13% · 19h-1.13% · 19h-1.13%19h0.47% · 20h0.47% · 20h0.47%20h-0.33% · 21h-0.33% · 21h-0.33%21h1.07% · 22h1.07% · 22h1.07%22h1.04% · 23h1.04% · 23h1.04%23h-0.34% · 00h-0.34% · 00h-0.34%00h0.18% · 01h0.18% · 01h0.18%01h-0.71% · 02h-0.71% · 02h-0.71%02h0.37% · 03h0.37% · 03h0.37%03h0.92% · 04h0.92% · 04h0.92%04h1.41% · 05h1.41% · 05h1.41%05h-0.23% · 06h-0.23% · 06h-0.23%06h-0.40% · 07h-0.40% · 07h-0.40%07hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+1.99%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 1.56% · worst -1.42% · typical |Δ| 0.641%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.67%FINAL+1.67%MAX DD-2.77%RECOVERYONGOING · 14 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.31%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0167 · peak 1.0231 · range [0.9779, 1.0231]1.02310.9779break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0231UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.77% · moderate0%-2.77%▼ TROUGH -2.77%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.77%bar 8-21 · 14 bars · recovered#2 -0.88%bar 2-5 · 4 bars · recovered#3 -0.63%bar 24-25 · 2 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.77%)RECOVERYongoing · 18 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 1.0167 (1.67%) · max DD -2.77% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +12 / −7 (63% positive) · μ=11.02 · σ=24.63MIXED EDGELAST 25.93 (+0.61σ vs μ)51.8625.930.00-25.93-51.86μ = 11.0217.1617.16-13.61-13.61-18.81-18.81-27.71-27.713.233.23-11.26-11.26-33.66-33.66-6.80-6.80-1.96-1.9626.9826.9821.2721.2713.8313.8351.8651.8618.7418.7434.9234.9233.1533.1536.4936.4939.6439.6425.9325.93v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 25.929 · range [-33.66, 51.86] · μ 11.020 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=79.7860 · σ=14.7157 · range [49.9706, 108.1061] · R²=0.079▲ RISING +54.38%σ EXTREME 18.44%LAST 77.1464108.106193.572279.038364.504549.9706μ = 79.7860max 108.1061min 49.9706dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.08μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 77.15% · range [49.97%, 108.11%] · μ 79.79% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-0.020 · σ=0.178CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.157 (+0.99σ vs μ)0.3920.1960.000-0.196-0.392μ = -0.0200.2210.221-0.057-0.0570.1330.1330.1910.1910.0240.024-0.090-0.0900.0320.032-0.251-0.251-0.392-0.392-0.177-0.177-0.008-0.008-0.154-0.154-0.220-0.220-0.035-0.0350.0720.072-0.170-0.1700.2810.2810.0600.0600.1570.157v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.157 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.5942
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7430
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
14.4814
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0129
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.2940
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6300
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.0350
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9720
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4330
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0629
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.3251
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7451
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.901 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.11e-5 · top T=6.00h (30.1%) · top-3 cover 59.3%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.2e-41.7e-41.1e-45.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.26e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.26e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.62e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.62e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.21e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.21e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.21e-4 · 30.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.21e-4 · 30.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.62e-5 · 13.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.62e-5 · 13.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.43e-5 · 12.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.43e-5 · 12.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.17e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.17e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.02e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.02e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.64e-5 · 10.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.64e-5 · 10.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.18e-4 · 16.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.18e-4 · 16.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.04e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.04e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.89e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.89e-5 · 2.6% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=6.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 6.00h (freq 0.167) · concentrates 30.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.338e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4750 bars · effective 5249975 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 2.78× · g(f★) 0.003%/barparametric μ/σ² 2.74× · μ 0.002% · σ 0.27%
μ per barmean
0.002%
σ per barvol
0.27%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
2.78×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
2.74×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
1.39×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.69×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.1×4.7×6.3×7.8×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.68× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.001% · annualized Sharpe 18.08400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.68× · bootstrap from 4749 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.008
annualized 18.08
μ per barafter L
0.001%
σ per barafter L
0.18%
VaR 95%5%
0.05%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.27%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.3%
0.89×0.94×0.99×1.05×1.10×1.16×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 17.02σ ann 622% · Sortino 17.07 · n 4749 · ⚠ capped (n=4749 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%410%819%1229%1638%2048%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)622.0%Ann. vol σ1702.2%Sharpe (ann)1706.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
189.178210.550231.923253.296274.668296.041t-4749t-3958t-3166t-2375t-1583t-792t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:59:13 UTC
Snapshot age
828ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:59:14 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
355f9ab35979f359d32ce4ff371477d07198ca7774aa5a269f88150137bf0748 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,636HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725.3

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$584
bid $49 · ask $535
Depth within 5bp
$38.51K
bid $24.61K · ask $13.90K
Depth within 10bp
$135.41K
bid $88.74K · ask $46.66K
Depth within 50bp
$169.35K
bid $88.74K · ask $80.61K
Mid price
231.350000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.049
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.459
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-TAO/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K231.381.27bp231.392FILLED
BUY$10.00K231.443.82bp231.466FILLED
BUY$100.00K231.548.39bp231.6420PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K231.321.43bp231.313FILLED
SELL$10.00K231.301.96bp231.295FILLED
SELL$100.00K231.197.08bp231.1220PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-TAO/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$232.00–$233.002$3.79K
$231.00–$232.001$664
$229.00–$230.001$680
$228.00–$229.003$3.20K
$227.00–$228.005$7.31K
$226.00–$227.00★6$7.47K
$225.00–$226.002$3.33K
$224.00–$225.002$3.47K
$223.00–$224.002$3.98K
$222.00–$223.001$1.32K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-TAO/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.118 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$14.02K
real volume
Sell weight
$17.78K
real volume
Net delta
$3.77K
sellers net
Imbalance
-11.85%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
11.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-TAO/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 2.76% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 14:00:00Z2.0h228.87→222.562.757%3
#22026-06-19 19:00:00Z2.0h226.16→223.611.128%3
#32026-06-19 10:00:00Z1.0h227.53→225.530.879%2

/api/asset/hl-TAO/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,750 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
622.04%
σ per bar = 0.002715
Mean return (annualised)
10588.53%
μ per bar = 0.000020
Sharpe (rf=0)
17.02
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
18.29%
peak 281.51 → trough 230.01 over 4145 bars

/api/asset/hl-TAO/risk · same metrics, JSON