HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

TURBO

TURBO-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-turbo · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.31%
realized vol (ann.)
106.12%
max drawdown
2.46%
sharpe
-36.54
ulcer index
0.75%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.63%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.08%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-5143.76
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.02%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.92
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1923.52
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.92
upside/downside
roll spread
2.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.31%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 41%
  • 24h change -3.31%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 22.8bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-TURBO/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.001
24h Δ · live
-3.31%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
TURBO · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0009 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0009, 0.0009] · R²=0.000▼ FALLING -2.99%σ NORMAL 1.17%LAST 0.00090.00090.00090.00090.00090.0009μ = 0.0009max 0.0009min 0.0009dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=249,241,761 · μ=9969670.4 · σ=21124691.8 · CV=2.12BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=11024,141,75748,283,51472,425,27096,567,027μ = 996967096,567,02750%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 96567027 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.5s
$mark $
$0.0009
$mid $
$0.0009
◉prev-day close
$0.0009
Δ24h Δ %
-3.315%
$24h vol $
$137.50k
◐open interest $
$243.78k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0009 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0009, 0.0009] · R²=0.000▼ FALLING -2.99%σ NORMAL 1.17%LAST 0.00090.00090.00090.00090.00090.0009μ = 0.0009max 0.0009min 0.0009dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0009 · 24h -3.31% · range $[0.0009, 0.0009]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.0009, 0.0009] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=43%BEARISH -1.80%CLOSE 0.0009 vs OPEN 0.0009 (-1.80%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.00090.00090.00090.00090.00090.0009μ close = 0.0009O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.23%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.23%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.11%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.11%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.11%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.11%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.12%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.12%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.33%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.33%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.45%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.45%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.45%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.45%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.22%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.22%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.11%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.11%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.34%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.34%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.45%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.45%)2.4%O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+2.37%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+2.37%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.22%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.22%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.22%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.22%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.77%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.77%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.74%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.74%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.33%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.33%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.78%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.78%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.56%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.56%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.78%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.78%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.56%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.56%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.56%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.56%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.91%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.91%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=249,241,761 · μ=9969670.4 · σ=21124691.8 · CV=2.12BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=11024,141,75748,283,51472,425,27096,567,027μ = 996967096,567,02796,567,027 · 100.0% peak96,567,027 · 100.0% peak2,837,631 · 2.9% peak2,837,631 · 2.9% peak2,451,297 · 2.5% peak2,451,297 · 2.5% peak3,547,233 · 3.7% peak3,547,233 · 3.7% peak866,460 · 0.9% peak866,460 · 0.9% peak3,924,053 · 4.1% peak3,924,053 · 4.1% peak2,059,493 · 2.1% peak2,059,493 · 2.1% peak2,039,446 · 2.1% peak2,039,446 · 2.1% peak6,584,951 · 6.8% peak6,584,951 · 6.8% peak1,810,002 · 1.9% peak1,810,002 · 1.9% peak4,547,805 · 4.7% peak4,547,805 · 4.7% peak20,292,288 · 21.0% peak20,292,288 · 21.0% peak1,770,622 · 1.8% peak1,770,622 · 1.8% peak6,414,873 · 6.6% peak6,414,873 · 6.6% peak2,154,770 · 2.2% peak2,154,770 · 2.2% peak53,657,359 · 55.6% peak53,657,359 · 55.6% peak4,429,912 · 4.6% peak4,429,912 · 4.6% peak2,089,849 · 2.2% peak2,089,849 · 2.2% peak3,696,064 · 3.8% peak3,696,064 · 3.8% peak1,615,100 · 1.7% peak1,615,100 · 1.7% peak18,929,399 · 19.6% peak18,929,399 · 19.6% peak1,585,271 · 1.6% peak1,585,271 · 1.6% peak1,540,781 · 1.6% peak1,540,781 · 1.6% peak2,459,675 · 2.5% peak2,459,675 · 2.5% peak1,370,400 · 1.4% peak1,370,400 · 1.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 249241761 · peak 96567027 · CV 2.12

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0010 · σ=0.0093 · skew=0.23 (symmetric) · kurt=0.16 (mesokurtic)43210 2-174.17bpbin -174.17bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -174.17bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 2-137.68bpbin -137.68bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -137.68bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak-101.18bp 4-64.68bpbin -64.68bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -64.68bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 4-28.18bpbin -28.18bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -28.18bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 48.31bpbin 8.31bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 8.31bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 344.81bpbin 44.81bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 44.81bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 381.31bpbin 81.31bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 81.31bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 1117.81bpbin 117.81bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 117.81bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak154.30bp190.80bp 1227.30bpbin 227.30bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 227.30bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.28 · kurt=0.55 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0009
Mid price
$0.0009
24h change
-3.31%
Mark–mid spread
11.43 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0009

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0009$95% CI: [0.0009$, 0.0009$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.17%
med MEDIAN0.0009$Q₁ 0.0009$ · Q₃ 0.0009$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0000$ · IQR 0.0000$ (1.349σ→0.0000$)
min 0.0009$Q₁ 0.0009$med 0.0009$Q₃ 0.0009$max 0.0009$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.457approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.249mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.19
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.09
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.37
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-12.06
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.126628%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.129
σᵣ STD / h0.982637%σ²ᵣ = 0.966×10⁻⁴ · CV = 7.76×
σ ANNUALISED91.97%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.983%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-12.06negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-11.33downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.30approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.99mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.94
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1109.26%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.80%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.802%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.910%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.894%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.99%9h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.802%VaR₉₉−1.910%ES₉₅−1.894%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 9h duration
PEAK0.09$
−4.99% drawdown over 9h
0.09$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.05× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.06× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +5.26% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
37.1 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.031 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0009
Bollinger MA
$0.0009
Bollinger lower
$0.0009

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.22 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.220within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.010lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.888strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.031fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.888
H = 0.888STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.220k=2-0.010k=3+0.067k=4+0.114k=5-0.1110+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.03)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.22 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.99very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.03)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$137.50k
Open interest (USD)
$243.78k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.56x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.46% · worst -1.92% · typical |Δ| 0.75%MILD BEARISH -3.04%BEST+2.46%01hWORST-1.92%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.75%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.04%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.18% · Σ +1.45%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.53% · Σ -4.27%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.22%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.04%+2.08%-3.04%-1.23% · 15h-1.23% · 15h-1.23%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h1.01% · 17h1.01% · 17h1.01%17h-1.45% · 18h-1.45% · 18h-1.45%18h-0.34% · 19h-0.34% · 19h-0.34%19h0.45% · 20h0.45% · 20h0.45%20h0.45% · 21h0.45% · 21h0.45%21h0.22% · 22h0.22% · 22h0.22%22h-0.56% · 23h-0.56% · 23h-0.56%23h-0.45% · 00h-0.45% · 00h-0.45%00h2.46% · 01h2.46% · 01h2.46%01h★ BEST-0.33% · 02h-0.33% · 02h-0.33%02h0.88% · 03h0.88% · 03h0.88%03h0.22% · 04h0.22% · 04h0.22%04h0.76% · 05h0.76% · 05h0.76%05h-1.86% · 06h-1.86% · 06h-1.86%06h-0.22% · 07h-0.22% · 07h-0.22%07h-0.78% · 08h-0.78% · 08h-0.78%08h0.00% · 09h0.00% · 09h·09h0.33% · 10h0.33% · 10h0.33%10h-0.78% · 11h-0.78% · 11h-0.78%11h-0.56% · 12h-0.56% · 12h-0.56%12h0.67% · 13h0.67% · 13h0.67%13h-1.92% · 14h-1.92% · 14h-1.92%14h▼ WORSTTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+1.45%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH42% up · 50% down · 8% flat
10 up bars · 12 down · best 2.46% · worst -1.92% · typical |Δ| 0.748%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-3.10%)FINAL-3.10%MAX DD-5.04%RECOVERYONGOING · 9 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.04%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9690 · peak 1.0204 · range [0.9690, 1.0204]1.02040.9690break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0204UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -5.04% · significant0%-5.04%▼ TROUGH -5.04%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -5.04%bar 17-25 · 9 bars · ONGOING#2 -2.02%bar 2-11 · 10 bars · recovered#3 -0.33%bar 13-13 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -5.04%)RECOVERYongoing · 9 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.9690 (-3.10%) · max DD -5.04% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-7.47 · σ=34.17MIXED EDGELAST -37.80 (-0.89σ vs μ)69.3634.680.00-34.68-69.36μ = -7.47-25.60-25.602.052.056.116.11-25.87-25.87-7.58-7.5836.8736.8724.6624.6629.9629.9629.8929.8951.8351.8323.1323.13-8.64-8.64-15.07-15.07-32.15-32.15-29.70-29.70-66.43-66.43-69.36-69.36-28.24-28.24-37.80-37.80v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -37.805 · range [-69.36, 51.83] · μ -7.470 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=86.4369 · σ=22.7657 · range [42.3337, 134.1022] · R²=0.019▼ FALLING -2.17%σ EXTREME 26.34%LAST 87.2791134.1022111.160188.217965.275842.3337μ = 86.4369max 134.1022min 42.3337dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 87.28% · range [42.33%, 134.10%] · μ 86.44% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.239 · σ=0.226MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.407 (-0.74σ vs μ)0.7240.3620.000-0.362-0.724μ = -0.239-0.307-0.307-0.251-0.251-0.210-0.2100.2320.2320.2760.276-0.121-0.121-0.357-0.357-0.395-0.395-0.427-0.427-0.724-0.724-0.276-0.276-0.190-0.190-0.128-0.128-0.342-0.342-0.411-0.411-0.115-0.115-0.169-0.169-0.223-0.223-0.407-0.407v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.407 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.3328
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5136
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.2562
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8144
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.7221
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4276
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4808
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6306
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.0343
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.1691
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2424
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.644 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.07e-4 · top T=2.00h (27.6%) · top-3 cover 66.0%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)3.6e-42.7e-41.8e-48.9e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.43e-4 · 11.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.43e-4 · 11.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.86e-5 · 1.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.86e-5 · 1.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.25e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.25e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.19e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.19e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.90e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.90e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.04e-4 · 23.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.04e-4 · 23.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.02e-5 · 0.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.02e-5 · 0.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.92e-4 · 14.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.92e-4 · 14.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.26e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.26e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.12e-5 · 7.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.12e-5 · 7.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.46e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.46e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.55e-4 · 27.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.55e-4 · 27.6% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=4.00h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 27.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.288e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.05%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.05%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-27.14×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -28.79400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.013
annualized -28.79
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -33.93σ ann 125% · Sortino -14.75 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-4071%-3227%-2383%-1538%-694%150%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)125.0%Ann. vol σ-3392.6%Sharpe (ann)-1475.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0010.0010.0010.0010.0010.001t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:49:07 UTC
Snapshot age
2.5s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:49:09 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
b71d2b319600bb29d6209dbec7048595ce608ae985c82b117211900fc8e1f5af · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.0¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,885HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,656.5HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$59.89

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$13.88K
bid $5.15K · ask $8.74K
Mid price
0.000876
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
22.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.088
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.142
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-TURBO/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.00087711.42bp0.0008771FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00087938.68bp0.0008826FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.000897242.93bp0.00091820PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.00087419.29bp0.0008742FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00087152.79bp0.0008678FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.000857215.01bp0.00083820PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-TURBO/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$249.24M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-TURBO/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.548 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$118.14M
real volume
Sell weight
$34.54M
real volume
Net delta
$83.60M
buyers net
Imbalance
54.76%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
54.8%
one-sided / toxic
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-TURBO/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 2.82% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 06:00:00Z3.0h0.000921→0.0008952.823%4
#22026-06-14 11:00:00Z3.0h0.000898→0.0008752.561%4
#32026-06-13 18:00:00Z2.0h0.000900→0.0008841.778%3

/api/asset/hl-TURBO/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
125.00%
σ per bar = 0.000545
Mean return (annualised)
-4240.67%
μ per bar = -0.000008
Sharpe (rf=0)
-33.93
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.91%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 4394 bars

/api/asset/hl-TURBO/risk · same metrics, JSON