HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

USUAL

USUAL-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-usual · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.60%
realized vol (ann.)
79.04%
max drawdown
1.56%
sharpe
-52.26
ulcer index
0.84%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.77%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.05%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-4919.33
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.35%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.87
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-3067.97
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.87
upside/downside
roll spread
1.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.60%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -2.60%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 9.9bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-USUAL/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH149ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.010
24h Δ · live
-2.60%
24h vol · live
$0.0M
USUAL · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0103 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0101, 0.0105] · R²=0.740▼ FALLING -2.79%σ NORMAL 1.12%LAST 0.01010.01050.01040.01030.01020.0101μ = 0.0103max 0.0105min 0.0101dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.74μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=2,345,768 · μ=93830.7 · σ=98922.6 · CV=1.05BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=13084,958169,915254,873339,830μ = 93831339,830.350%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 339830 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
149ms
$mark $
$0.0101
$mid $
$0.0101
◉prev-day close
$0.0104
Δ24h Δ %
-2.604%
$24h vol $
$24.13k
◐open interest $
$151.49k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0103 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0101, 0.0105] · R²=0.740▼ FALLING -2.79%σ NORMAL 1.12%LAST 0.01010.01050.01040.01030.01020.0101μ = 0.0103max 0.0105min 0.0101dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.74μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0101 · 24h -2.60% · range $[0.0101, 0.0105]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [0.0101, 0.0105] · σ=0.0001 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=66%BEARISH -2.41%CLOSE 0.0101 vs OPEN 0.0104 (-2.41%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.01010.01050.01040.01030.01020.0101μ close = 0.0103O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.39%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.39%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.48%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.48%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.19%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.19%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.38%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.38%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.00%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.00%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.00%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.00%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.38%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.38%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.10%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.10%)1.2%O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+1.16%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+1.16%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.38%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.38%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.68%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.68%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.49%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.49%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.49%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.49%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.10%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.10%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.19%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.19%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.00%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.00%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.49%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.49%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.39%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.39%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.68%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.68%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.59%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.59%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.49%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.49%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=2,345,768 · μ=93830.7 · σ=98922.6 · CV=1.05BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=13084,958169,915254,873339,830μ = 93831297,742.7 · 87.6% peak297,742.7 · 87.6% peak4,788.1 · 1.4% peak4,788.1 · 1.4% peak3,660.3 · 1.1% peak3,660.3 · 1.1% peak339,830.3339,830.3 · 100.0% peak339,830.3 · 100.0% peak137,301.9 · 40.4% peak137,301.9 · 40.4% peak35,694.6 · 10.5% peak35,694.6 · 10.5% peak78,350.5 · 23.1% peak78,350.5 · 23.1% peak10,839.4 · 3.2% peak10,839.4 · 3.2% peak78,736.1 · 23.2% peak78,736.1 · 23.2% peak66,627 · 19.6% peak66,627 · 19.6% peak77,148.5 · 22.7% peak77,148.5 · 22.7% peak24,785.3 · 7.3% peak24,785.3 · 7.3% peak251,802.2 · 74.1% peak251,802.2 · 74.1% peak104,647.2 · 30.8% peak104,647.2 · 30.8% peak118,951.3 · 35.0% peak118,951.3 · 35.0% peak44,248.9 · 13.0% peak44,248.9 · 13.0% peak7,108.4 · 2.1% peak7,108.4 · 2.1% peak26,717 · 7.9% peak26,717 · 7.9% peak3,432.6 · 1.0% peak3,432.6 · 1.0% peak26,843.5 · 7.9% peak26,843.5 · 7.9% peak13,886 · 4.1% peak13,886 · 4.1% peak7,509.6 · 2.2% peak7,509.6 · 2.2% peak218,662.2 · 64.3% peak218,662.2 · 64.3% peak178,950.5 · 52.7% peak178,950.5 · 52.7% peak187,503.8 · 55.2% peak187,503.8 · 55.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 2345768 · peak 339830 · CV 1.05

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0010 · σ=0.0040 · skew=-0.74 (left-skewed) · kurt=-0.17 (mesokurtic)75420 2-99.75bpbin -99.75bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -99.75bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak-85.96bp 1-72.17bpbin -72.17bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -72.17bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak-58.38bp 2-44.59bpbin -44.59bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -44.59bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 4-30.80bpbin -30.80bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin -30.80bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak-17.01bp 6-3.23bpbin -3.23bp · n=6 · 85.7% peakbin -3.23bp · n=6 · 85.7% peak10.56bp 724.35bpbin 24.35bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin 24.35bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 138.14bpbin 38.14bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 38.14bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 151.93bpbin 51.93bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 51.93bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.78 · kurt=0.05 · near 15 / mid 9 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0101
Mid price
$0.0101
24h change
-2.60%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0104

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.60)
μ MEAN0.0103$95% CI: [0.0102$, 0.0103$]
σ STD DEV0.0001$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.12%
med MEDIAN0.0103$Q₁ 0.0102$ · Q₃ 0.0104$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0004$ · IQR 0.0002$ (1.349σ→0.0002$)
min 0.0101$Q₁ 0.0102$med 0.0103$Q₃ 0.0104$max 0.0105$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.201approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.597platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.39
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.71
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.20
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-25.88
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.117837%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.276
σᵣ STD / h0.426186%σ²ᵣ = 0.182×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.62×
σ ANNUALISED39.89%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.426%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-25.88negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-19.00downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.83left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.36mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.73
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1032.25%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.01%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.014%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.064%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.061%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.53%16h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.014%VaR₉₉−1.064%ES₉₅−1.061%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 16h duration
PEAK1.05$
−3.53% drawdown over 16h
1.01$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.05× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.05× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.66% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
29.7 · oversold
Bollinger %B
0.147 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0105
Bollinger MA
$0.0103
Bollinger lower
$0.0100

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.111within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.004lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.091strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-8.091significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.091
H = 1.091STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.111k=2+0.004k=3-0.027k=4-0.016k=5-0.1680+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.09)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.09)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$24.13k
Open interest (USD)
$151.49k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.16x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.59% · worst -1.07% · typical |Δ| 0.32%BEARISH SESSION -2.83%BEST+0.59%05hWORST-1.07%23hTYPICAL |Δ|0.32%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.83%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.39%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.12% · Σ -0.99%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.18% · Σ -1.45%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.83%+0.77%-2.83%0.19% · 14h0.19% · 14h0.19%14h-0.10% · 15h-0.10% · 15h-0.10%15h0.19% · 16h0.19% · 16h0.19%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.19% · 19h0.19% · 19h0.19%19h-0.10% · 20h-0.10% · 20h-0.10%20h0.38% · 21h0.38% · 21h0.38%21h-1.06% · 22h-1.06% · 22h-1.06%22h-1.07% · 23h-1.07% · 23h-1.07%23h▼ WORST-0.49% · 00h-0.49% · 00h-0.49%00h0.20% · 01h0.20% · 01h0.20%01h-0.29% · 02h-0.29% · 02h-0.29%02h0.00% · 03h0.00% · 03h·03h-0.29% · 04h-0.29% · 04h-0.29%04h0.59% · 05h0.59% · 05h0.59%05h★ BEST0.20% · 06h0.20% · 06h0.20%06h-0.29% · 07h-0.29% · 07h-0.29%07h0.20% · 08h0.20% · 08h0.20%08h0.29% · 09h0.29% · 09h0.29%09h-0.78% · 10h-0.78% · 10h-0.78%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h-0.49% · 12h-0.49% · 12h-0.49%12h-0.30% · 13h-0.30% · 13h-0.30%13hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+-0.39%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH38% up · 46% down · 17% flat
9 up bars · 11 down · best 0.59% · worst -1.07% · typical |Δ| 0.320%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.81%)FINAL-2.81%MAX DD-3.55%RECOVERYONGOING · 16 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.77%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9719 · peak 1.0077 · range [0.9719, 1.0077]1.00770.9719break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0077UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.55% · moderate0%-3.55%▼ TROUGH -3.55%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -3.55%bar 10-25 · 16 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.10%bar 3-3 · 1 bars · recovered#3 -0.10%bar 8-8 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.55%)RECOVERYongoing · 16 barsTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 0.9719 (-2.81%) · max DD -3.55% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-14.32 · σ=41.75MIXED EDGELAST -40.47 (-0.63σ vs μ)80.0840.040.00-40.04-80.08μ = -14.3258.6658.6622.8322.8359.5559.55-18.00-18.00-40.61-40.61-53.61-53.61-53.44-53.44-59.50-59.50-80.08-80.08-69.51-69.51-11.55-11.5518.0618.06-4.26-4.2618.0918.0930.7330.736.266.26-14.97-14.97-40.37-40.37-40.47-40.47v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -40.470 · range [-80.08, 59.55] · μ -14.325 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=38.8617 · σ=14.5687 · range [11.9370, 59.0854] · R²=0.024▲ RISING +227.05%σ EXTREME 37.49%LAST 39.039759.085447.298335.511223.724111.9370μ = 38.8617max 59.0854min 11.9370dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 39.04% · range [11.94%, 59.09%] · μ 38.86% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.197 · σ=0.290MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.271 (-0.26σ vs μ)0.6260.3130.000-0.313-0.626μ = -0.197-0.626-0.626-0.583-0.583-0.507-0.507-0.337-0.3370.2180.2180.2130.2130.1010.1010.0020.0020.3900.3900.0760.076-0.445-0.445-0.211-0.211-0.168-0.168-0.334-0.334-0.343-0.343-0.154-0.154-0.394-0.394-0.361-0.361-0.271-0.271v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.271 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
2.9091
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2335
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.2881
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9350
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.4252
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9020
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.5108
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6095
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7594
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0089
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.6987
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4848
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.213 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.86e-5 · top T=12.00h (27.4%) · top-3 cover 52.4%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)6.1e-54.6e-53.1e-51.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.65e-6 · 3.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.65e-6 · 3.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.13e-5 · 27.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.13e-5 · 27.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.73e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.73e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.76e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.76e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.77e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.77e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.69e-5 · 12.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.69e-5 · 12.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.70e-6 · 3.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.70e-6 · 3.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.37e-5 · 6.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.37e-5 · 6.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.66e-5 · 11.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.66e-5 · 11.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.84e-6 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.84e-6 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.79e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.79e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.87e-5 · 12.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.87e-5 · 12.9% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=12.00h#2T=2.00h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 12.00h (freq 0.083) · concentrates 27.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.232e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-12.89×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -11.44400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.005
annualized -11.44
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -726% · APY -100% · Sharpe -9.68σ ann 75% · Sortino -3.09 · n 4999
-1161%-911%-661%-410%-160%90%-726.4%APR (simple)-99.9%APY (compound)75.1%Ann. vol σ-967.7%Sharpe (ann)-308.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0100.0100.0100.0100.0110.011t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 13:39:01 UTC
Snapshot age
149ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 13:39:01 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
a58a21316c23bff33b4419a6c6231323b072fb80a017b206ef66ff2969bb4220 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$16.71K
bid $6.40K · ask $10.31K
Mid price
0.010105
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
29.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.108
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.301
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-USUAL/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.01012014.84bp0.0101201FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.01013226.37bp0.0101504FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.010284176.99bp0.01088020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.01009014.84bp0.0100901FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.01006143.63bp0.0100008FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.009857245.41bp0.00475018PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-USUAL/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$2.35M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-USUAL/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.022 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.00M
real volume
Sell weight
$1.05M
real volume
Net delta
$45.91K
sellers net
Imbalance
-2.24%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
2.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-USUAL/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 2.67% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 22:00:00Z4.0h0.010480→0.0102002.672%5
#22026-06-14 10:00:00Z3.0h0.010270→0.0101101.558%4
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z0ms0.010230→0.0101700.587%1

/api/asset/hl-USUAL/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
75.07%
σ per bar = 0.000327
Mean return (annualised)
-726.44%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-9.68
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.94%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 4456 bars

/api/asset/hl-USUAL/risk · same metrics, JSON