HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

XLM

XLM-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-xlm · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.91%
realized vol (ann.)
49.25%
max drawdown
1.81%
sharpe
-22.04
ulcer index
0.76%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.57%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1420.88
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.71%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.97
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-636.52
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.97
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.91%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-18.54%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 38%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 11.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-XLM/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.215
24h Δ · live
-0.91%
24h vol · live
$3.2M
XLM · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.2172 · σ=0.0030 · range [0.2117, 0.2222] · R²=0.380▼ FALLING -0.38%σ NORMAL 1.37%LAST 0.21530.22220.21960.21700.21430.2117μ = 0.2172max 0.2222min 0.2117dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.38μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.22
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.8%Short fee 51.2%SHORT FEE51.2%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.8%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.2%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.002117% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=15,089,752 · μ=603590.1 · σ=699432.9 · CV=1.16BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=80869,0371,738,0752,607,1123,476,149μ = 6035903,476,14950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 3476149 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.5s
$mark $
$0.215
$mid $
$0.215
◉prev-day close
$0.217
Δ24h Δ %
-0.908%
$24h vol $
$3.22M
◐open interest $
$9.66M
%funding (1h)
-0.002117%
%funding (yr)
-18.54%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.2172 · σ=0.0030 · range [0.2117, 0.2222] · R²=0.380▼ FALLING -0.38%σ NORMAL 1.37%LAST 0.21530.22220.21960.21700.21430.2117μ = 0.2172max 0.2222min 0.2117dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.38μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.2150 · 24h -0.91% · range $[0.2117, 0.2222]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 9 · down 16 (36% up) · range [0.2105, 0.2240] · σ=0.0030 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=53%BEARISH -1.29%CLOSE 0.2153 vs OPEN 0.2181 (-1.29%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.21530.22400.22060.21730.21390.2105μ close = 0.2172O0.218 H0.218 L0.216 C0.216 (-0.91%)O0.218 H0.218 L0.216 C0.216 (-0.91%)O0.216 H0.219 L0.214 C0.219 (+1.46%)O0.216 H0.219 L0.214 C0.219 (+1.46%)O0.219 H0.223 L0.218 C0.222 (+1.32%)O0.219 H0.223 L0.218 C0.222 (+1.32%)O0.222 H0.223 L0.219 C0.220 (-0.63%)O0.222 H0.223 L0.219 C0.220 (-0.63%)O0.220 H0.222 L0.220 C0.222 (+0.89%)O0.220 H0.222 L0.220 C0.222 (+0.89%)O0.222 H0.224 L0.220 C0.220 (-1.19%)O0.222 H0.224 L0.220 C0.220 (-1.19%)O0.220 H0.222 L0.219 C0.221 (+0.56%)O0.220 H0.222 L0.219 C0.221 (+0.56%)O0.221 H0.222 L0.221 C0.221 (-0.07%)O0.221 H0.222 L0.221 C0.221 (-0.07%)O0.221 H0.221 L0.218 C0.218 (-1.26%)O0.221 H0.221 L0.218 C0.218 (-1.26%)O0.218 H0.219 L0.216 C0.218 (+0.03%)O0.218 H0.219 L0.216 C0.218 (+0.03%)O0.218 H0.219 L0.217 C0.217 (-0.64%)O0.218 H0.219 L0.217 C0.217 (-0.64%)O0.217 H0.219 L0.217 C0.218 (+0.42%)O0.217 H0.219 L0.217 C0.218 (+0.42%)O0.218 H0.219 L0.217 C0.218 (-0.01%)O0.218 H0.219 L0.217 C0.218 (-0.01%)O0.218 H0.218 L0.215 C0.215 (-1.28%)O0.218 H0.218 L0.215 C0.215 (-1.28%)O0.215 H0.215 L0.212 C0.213 (-0.74%)O0.215 H0.215 L0.212 C0.213 (-0.74%)O0.213 H0.213 L0.211 C0.212 (-0.58%)O0.213 H0.213 L0.211 C0.212 (-0.58%)O0.212 H0.213 L0.211 C0.212 (-0.05%)O0.212 H0.213 L0.211 C0.212 (-0.05%)O0.212 H0.214 L0.212 C0.213 (+0.76%)O0.212 H0.214 L0.212 C0.213 (+0.76%)1.8%O0.214 H0.218 L0.213 C0.217 (+1.83%)O0.214 H0.218 L0.213 C0.217 (+1.83%)O0.217 H0.218 L0.216 C0.216 (-0.49%)O0.217 H0.218 L0.216 C0.216 (-0.49%)O0.217 H0.217 L0.214 C0.216 (-0.33%)O0.217 H0.217 L0.214 C0.216 (-0.33%)O0.216 H0.216 L0.215 C0.215 (-0.52%)O0.216 H0.216 L0.215 C0.215 (-0.52%)O0.215 H0.218 L0.214 C0.217 (+1.14%)O0.215 H0.218 L0.214 C0.217 (+1.14%)O0.218 H0.219 L0.217 C0.217 (-0.33%)O0.218 H0.219 L0.217 C0.217 (-0.33%)O0.217 H0.217 L0.215 C0.215 (-0.68%)O0.217 H0.217 L0.215 C0.215 (-0.68%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=15,089,752 · μ=603590.1 · σ=699432.9 · CV=1.16BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=80869,0371,738,0752,607,1123,476,149μ = 603590415,334 · 11.9% peak415,334 · 11.9% peak1,197,572 · 34.5% peak1,197,572 · 34.5% peak3,476,1493,476,149 · 100.0% peak3,476,149 · 100.0% peak642,711 · 18.5% peak642,711 · 18.5% peak216,905 · 6.2% peak216,905 · 6.2% peak834,971 · 24.0% peak834,971 · 24.0% peak239,351 · 6.9% peak239,351 · 6.9% peak1,408,577 · 40.5% peak1,408,577 · 40.5% peak547,762 · 15.8% peak547,762 · 15.8% peak429,625 · 12.4% peak429,625 · 12.4% peak281,207 · 8.1% peak281,207 · 8.1% peak162,520 · 4.7% peak162,520 · 4.7% peak92,863 · 2.7% peak92,863 · 2.7% peak249,414 · 7.2% peak249,414 · 7.2% peak980,491 · 28.2% peak980,491 · 28.2% peak340,294 · 9.8% peak340,294 · 9.8% peak205,576 · 5.9% peak205,576 · 5.9% peak243,015 · 7.0% peak243,015 · 7.0% peak419,114 · 12.1% peak419,114 · 12.1% peak252,496 · 7.3% peak252,496 · 7.3% peak187,578 · 5.4% peak187,578 · 5.4% peak260,119 · 7.5% peak260,119 · 7.5% peak273,373 · 7.9% peak273,373 · 7.9% peak548,244 · 15.8% peak548,244 · 15.8% peak1,184,491 · 34.1% peak1,184,491 · 34.1% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 15089752 · peak 3476149 · CV 1.16

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0002 · σ=0.0088 · skew=0.51 (right-skewed) · kurt=-0.91 (mesokurtic)43210 3-117.21bpbin -117.21bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -117.21bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 2-90.30bpbin -90.30bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -90.30bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 4-63.39bpbin -63.39bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -63.39bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 3-36.48bpbin -36.48bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -36.48bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 3-9.58bpbin -9.58bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -9.58bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 117.33bpbin 17.33bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 17.33bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 144.24bpbin 44.24bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 44.24bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 271.15bpbin 71.15bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 71.15bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 198.06bpbin 98.06bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 98.06bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 2124.96bpbin 124.96bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 124.96bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1151.87bpbin 151.87bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 151.87bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1178.78bpbin 178.78bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 178.78bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.45 · kurt=-0.85 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.215
Mid price
$0.215
24h change
-0.91%
Mark–mid spread
0.93 bps
Prev-day close
$0.217

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.2172$95% CI: [0.2161$, 0.2184$]
σ STD DEV0.0030$σ² = 0.089×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.37%
med MEDIAN0.2174$Q₁ 0.2153$ · Q₃ 0.2194$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0105$ · IQR 0.0041$ (1.349σ→0.0040$)
min 0.2117$Q₁ 0.2153$med 0.2174$Q₃ 0.2194$max 0.2222$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.115approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.866mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.07
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.97
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.53
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-1.61
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.016033%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.017
σᵣ STD / h0.933642%σ²ᵣ = 0.872×10⁻⁴ · CV = 58.23×
σ ANNUALISED87.38%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.934%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-1.61negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-1.91downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-29.70drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.49approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.76mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.19
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -29.70
EXPECTED EDGE-140.45%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.26%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.265%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.299%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.291%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.73%12h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.265%VaR₉₉−1.299%ES₉₅−1.291%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 12h duration
PEAK22.22$
−4.73% drawdown over 12h
21.17$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.02× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.03× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.96% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
49.2 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.384 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.2220
Bollinger MA
$0.2165
Bollinger lower
$0.2111

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.042within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.025lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.853strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.754significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.853
H = 0.853STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.042k=2-0.025k=3-0.129k=4-0.130k=5+0.2250+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.75)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.75very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.75)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$3.22M
Open interest (USD)
$9.66M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.33x
1h funding
-0.002117%
Funding (annualised)
-18.54%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-1.839× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-0.920× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-0.460×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.92% · worst -1.31% · typical |Δ| 0.76%MILD BEARISH -0.38%BEST+1.92%05hWORST-1.31%00hTYPICAL |Δ|0.76%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.38%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.12% · Σ -0.97%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.31% · Σ +2.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.24% · Σ -1.91%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.38%+2.78%-2.06%1.52% · 12h1.52% · 12h1.52%12h1.24% · 13h1.24% · 13h1.24%13h-0.90% · 14h-0.90% · 14h-0.90%14h0.93% · 15h0.93% · 15h0.93%15h-1.21% · 16h-1.21% · 16h-1.21%16h0.78% · 17h0.78% · 17h0.78%17h-0.07% · 18h-0.07% · 18h-0.07%18h-1.27% · 19h-1.27% · 19h-1.27%19h0.06% · 20h0.06% · 20h0.06%20h-0.71% · 21h-0.71% · 21h-0.71%21h0.48% · 22h0.48% · 22h0.48%22h0.02% · 23h0.02% · 23h0.02%23h-1.31% · 00h-1.31% · 00h-1.31%00h▼ WORST-0.95% · 01h-0.95% · 01h-0.95%01h-0.62% · 02h-0.62% · 02h-0.62%02h-0.06% · 03h-0.06% · 03h-0.06%03h0.75% · 04h0.75% · 04h0.75%04h1.92% · 05h1.92% · 05h1.92%05h★ BEST-0.47% · 06h-0.47% · 06h-0.47%06h-0.25% · 07h-0.25% · 07h-0.25%07h-0.56% · 08h-0.56% · 08h-0.56%08h1.27% · 09h1.27% · 09h1.27%09h-0.23% · 10h-0.23% · 10h-0.23%10h-0.76% · 11h-0.76% · 11h-0.76%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+2.50%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 1.92% · worst -1.31% · typical |Δ| 0.764%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.48%)FINAL-0.48%MAX DD-4.77%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.79%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9952 · peak 1.0279 · range [0.9790, 1.0279]1.02790.9790break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0279UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.77% · moderate0%-4.77%▼ TROUGH -4.77%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -4.77%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.90%bar 4-4 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.77%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9952 (-0.48%) · max DD -4.77% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-15.16 · σ=34.87MIXED EDGELAST -21.17 (-0.17σ vs μ)73.2536.620.00-36.62-73.25μ = -15.1631.8131.8111.7311.73-27.62-27.62-12.86-12.86-46.94-46.94-14.92-14.92-36.60-36.60-56.29-56.29-53.96-53.96-73.25-73.25-56.46-56.46-45.24-45.24-3.39-3.398.468.4620.7420.7422.0222.0240.6540.6525.2125.21-21.17-21.17v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -21.169 · range [-73.25, 40.65] · μ -15.162 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=82.8278 · σ=16.7947 · range [59.2027, 112.6142] · R²=0.001▼ FALLING -36.59%σ EXTREME 20.28%LAST 68.5333112.614299.261485.908572.555659.2027μ = 82.8278max 112.6142min 59.2027dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 68.53% · range [59.20%, 112.61%] · μ 82.83% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-0.150 · σ=0.324CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.211 (-0.19σ vs μ)0.7790.3900.000-0.390-0.779μ = -0.150-0.349-0.349-0.779-0.779-0.581-0.581-0.529-0.529-0.433-0.433-0.238-0.238-0.391-0.391-0.266-0.2660.0300.0300.1430.1430.2340.2340.2180.2180.4450.4450.1620.1620.0310.0310.0580.058-0.077-0.077-0.316-0.316-0.211-0.211v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.211 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.5247
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4666
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.7553
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7401
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.6250
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4738
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.5732
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5665
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5197
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0372
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.6608
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5088
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.799 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=8.74e-5 · top T=2.67h (19.7%) · top-3 cover 41.0%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.1e-41.6e-41.0e-45.2e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 9.73e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 9.73e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.14e-5 · 1.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.14e-5 · 1.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.17e-4 · 11.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.17e-4 · 11.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.83e-5 · 7.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.83e-5 · 7.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.65e-5 · 9.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.65e-5 · 9.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.07e-4 · 10.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.07e-4 · 10.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.15e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.15e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.04e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.04e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.07e-4 · 19.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.07e-4 · 19.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.89e-5 · 9.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.89e-5 · 9.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.09e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.09e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.35e-5 · 8.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.35e-5 · 8.9% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=8.00h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 19.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.049e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.002% per barparametric μ/σ² -9.54× · μ -0.002% · σ 0.14%
μ per barmean
-0.002%
σ per barvol
0.14%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-9.54×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.03%0.00%0.04%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -29.30400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.013
annualized -29.30
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.02%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.94×0.96×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -31.21σ ann 327% · Sortino -20.56 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3746%-2918%-2090%-1263%-435%392%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)327.1%Ann. vol σ-3121.3%Sharpe (ann)-2055.6%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.2020.2140.2260.2380.2500.262t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:41:15 UTC
Snapshot age
1.5s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:41:19 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
a7d1fb3bdfaa6f764cc2a909aa78b6974d2a38417295ba60b47320a30701e514 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$2.77K
bid $1.19K · ask $1.58K
Depth within 5bp
$24.44K
bid $19.25K · ask $5.19K
Depth within 10bp
$64.80K
bid $38.02K · ask $26.77K
Depth within 50bp
$124.01K
bid $73.19K · ask $50.82K
Mid price
0.214980
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.181
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.478
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-XLM/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.2150000.93bp0.2150001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.2150764.49bp0.2151309FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.21520110.26bp0.21534020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.2149600.93bp0.2149601FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.2149212.73bp0.2149104FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.2147789.38bp0.21465020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-2.117e-5
-0.00212% / hr
Annualised APR
-18.554%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
19.7d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
19.7d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE18.554%19.7d196.9d
SHORTPAY-18.554%19.7d196.9d

/api/asset/hl-XLM/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$15.09M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-XLM/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.080 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$6.75M
real volume
Sell weight
$7.92M
real volume
Net delta
$1.17M
sellers net
Imbalance
-8.00%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
8.0%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-XLM/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 2.89% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-20 00:00:00Z3.0h0.218010→0.2117102.890%4
#22026-06-19 19:00:00Z2.0h0.221270→0.2169101.970%3
#32026-06-20 07:00:00Z1.0h0.217440→0.2147001.260%2

/api/asset/hl-XLM/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
327.07%
σ per bar = 0.001427
Mean return (annualised)
-10209.02%
μ per bar = -0.000019
Sharpe (rf=0)
-31.21
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
14.80%
peak 0.25 → trough 0.21 over 568 bars

/api/asset/hl-XLM/risk · same metrics, JSON