HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ZEC

ZEC-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-zec · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 5.18%
realized vol (ann.)
66.11%
max drawdown
1.33%
sharpe
-5.23
ulcer index
0.61%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.52%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-564.97
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.24%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.99
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-278.80
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.99
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
5.18%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 30%
  • 24h change +5.18%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ZEC/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.6s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$470.940
24h Δ · live
5.18%
24h vol · live
$100.3M
ZEC · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=462.6512 · σ=9.4886 · range [446.0100, 476.8000] · R²=0.670▲ RISING +5.58%σ NORMAL 2.05%LAST 470.9100476.8000469.1025461.4050453.7075446.0100μ = 462.6512max 476.8000min 446.0100dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.67μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $470.91
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=220,105 · μ=8804.2 · σ=7443.9 · CV=0.85BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=807,72715,45523,18230,910μ = 880430,909.5850%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 30910 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.6s
$mark $
$470.94
$mid $
$470.93
◉prev-day close
$447.75
Δ24h Δ %
+5.179%
$24h vol $
$100.28M
◐open interest $
$212.81M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=462.6512 · σ=9.4886 · range [446.0100, 476.8000] · R²=0.670▲ RISING +5.58%σ NORMAL 2.05%LAST 470.9100476.8000469.1025461.4050453.7075446.0100μ = 462.6512max 476.8000min 446.0100dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.67μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $470.9400 · 24h 5.18% · range $[446.0100, 476.8000]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [444.3300, 480.3100] · σ=9.4886 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=42%BULLISH +4.81%CLOSE 470.9100 vs OPEN 449.2800 (+4.81%)&#9650; CLOSE 470.9100480.3100471.3150462.3200453.3250444.3300μ close = 462.6512O449.280 H449.860 L444.880 C446.010 (-0.73%)O449.280 H449.860 L444.880 C446.010 (-0.73%)O446.090 H457.620 L444.330 C457.050 (+2.46%)O446.090 H457.620 L444.330 C457.050 (+2.46%)O456.970 H462.510 L446.170 C453.790 (-0.70%)O456.970 H462.510 L446.170 C453.790 (-0.70%)O453.750 H455.880 L451.520 C453.940 (+0.04%)O453.750 H455.880 L451.520 C453.940 (+0.04%)O453.770 H455.370 L451.500 C454.210 (+0.10%)O453.770 H455.370 L451.500 C454.210 (+0.10%)O454.230 H459.590 L445.720 C446.860 (-1.62%)O454.230 H459.590 L445.720 C446.860 (-1.62%)O446.830 H457.800 L445.100 C457.330 (+2.35%)O446.830 H457.800 L445.100 C457.330 (+2.35%)O457.330 H458.400 L452.760 C454.030 (-0.72%)O457.330 H458.400 L452.760 C454.030 (-0.72%)O454.060 H455.500 L448.000 C451.470 (-0.57%)O454.060 H455.500 L448.000 C451.470 (-0.57%)O451.670 H454.730 L447.220 C453.270 (+0.35%)O451.670 H454.730 L447.220 C453.270 (+0.35%)O453.320 H453.980 L448.960 C451.840 (-0.33%)O453.320 H453.980 L448.960 C451.840 (-0.33%)3.3%O451.500 H467.400 L451.500 C466.370 (+3.29%)O451.500 H467.400 L451.500 C466.370 (+3.29%)O466.610 H480.310 L463.160 C476.800 (+2.18%)O466.610 H480.310 L463.160 C476.800 (+2.18%)O476.880 H478.410 L470.440 C472.700 (-0.88%)O476.880 H478.410 L470.440 C472.700 (-0.88%)O472.720 H474.170 L467.000 C471.210 (-0.32%)O472.720 H474.170 L467.000 C471.210 (-0.32%)O471.000 H471.730 L466.870 C468.380 (-0.56%)O471.000 H471.730 L466.870 C468.380 (-0.56%)O468.410 H472.020 L465.770 C466.830 (-0.34%)O468.410 H472.020 L465.770 C466.830 (-0.34%)O466.860 H472.400 L466.000 C471.330 (+0.96%)O466.860 H472.400 L466.000 C471.330 (+0.96%)O471.400 H477.100 L468.380 C470.060 (-0.28%)O471.400 H477.100 L468.380 C470.060 (-0.28%)O470.140 H472.270 L467.430 C471.040 (+0.19%)O470.140 H472.270 L467.430 C471.040 (+0.19%)O470.900 H471.240 L468.350 C468.540 (-0.50%)O470.900 H471.240 L468.350 C468.540 (-0.50%)O468.620 H472.330 L467.440 C468.970 (+0.07%)O468.620 H472.330 L467.440 C468.970 (+0.07%)O469.010 H474.760 L469.010 C472.080 (+0.65%)O469.010 H474.760 L469.010 C472.080 (+0.65%)O472.200 H474.890 L471.020 C471.260 (-0.20%)O472.200 H474.890 L471.020 C471.260 (-0.20%)O471.340 H472.360 L468.650 C470.910 (-0.09%)O471.340 H472.360 L468.650 C470.910 (-0.09%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=220,105 · μ=8804.2 · σ=7443.9 · CV=0.85BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=807,72715,45523,18230,910μ = 88043,734.97 · 12.1% peak3,734.97 · 12.1% peak10,033.48 · 32.5% peak10,033.48 · 32.5% peak30,909.5830,909.58 · 100.0% peak30,909.58 · 100.0% peak27,603.02 · 89.3% peak27,603.02 · 89.3% peak13,615.82 · 44.1% peak13,615.82 · 44.1% peak14,637.49 · 47.4% peak14,637.49 · 47.4% peak7,102.51 · 23.0% peak7,102.51 · 23.0% peak7,419.23 · 24.0% peak7,419.23 · 24.0% peak7,945.01 · 25.7% peak7,945.01 · 25.7% peak5,264.61 · 17.0% peak5,264.61 · 17.0% peak4,850.58 · 15.7% peak4,850.58 · 15.7% peak9,195.85 · 29.8% peak9,195.85 · 29.8% peak20,395.06 · 66.0% peak20,395.06 · 66.0% peak8,195.24 · 26.5% peak8,195.24 · 26.5% peak5,447.27 · 17.6% peak5,447.27 · 17.6% peak3,618.43 · 11.7% peak3,618.43 · 11.7% peak2,757.74 · 8.9% peak2,757.74 · 8.9% peak1,842.1 · 6.0% peak1,842.1 · 6.0% peak7,714.87 · 25.0% peak7,714.87 · 25.0% peak6,032.04 · 19.5% peak6,032.04 · 19.5% peak4,903.97 · 15.9% peak4,903.97 · 15.9% peak2,757.78 · 8.9% peak2,757.78 · 8.9% peak4,104.36 · 13.3% peak4,104.36 · 13.3% peak5,320.29 · 17.2% peak5,320.29 · 17.2% peak4,703.34 · 15.2% peak4,703.34 · 15.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 220105 · peak 30910 · CV 0.85

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0023 · σ=0.0113 · skew=1.09 (right-skewed) · kurt=0.26 (mesokurtic)65320 1-143.16bpbin -143.16bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -143.16bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-103.19bpbin -103.19bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -103.19bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 5-63.21bpbin -63.21bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin -63.21bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak 6-23.24bpbin -23.24bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -23.24bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 416.73bpbin 16.73bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 16.73bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 256.70bpbin 56.70bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 56.70bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 196.67bpbin 96.67bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 96.67bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak136.64bp176.61bp 2216.58bpbin 216.58bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 216.58bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 1256.55bpbin 256.55bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 256.55bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1296.53bpbin 296.53bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 296.53bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.12 · kurt=0.43 · near 10 / mid 14 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.95 intercept=-0.00RIGHT-SKEWED · HEAVY POSITIVE TAILFAT UPPER TAILLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$470.94
Mid price
$470.93
24h change
+5.18%
Mark–mid spread
0.21 bps
Prev-day close
$447.75

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.56)
μ MEAN462.6512$95% CI: [458.9317$, 466.3707$]
σ STD DEV9.4886$σ² = 90.034 · CV = 2.05%
med MEDIAN466.8300$Q₁ 453.9400$ · Q₃ 471.0400$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 30.7900$ · IQR 17.1000$ (1.349σ→12.8002$)
min 446.0100$Q₁ 453.9400$med 466.8300$Q₃ 471.0400$max 476.8000$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.282approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.560platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.44
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.75
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.24
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=17.84
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.226357%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.191
σᵣ STD / h1.187300%σ²ᵣ = 1.410×10⁻⁴ · CV = 5.25×
σ ANNUALISED111.13%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.187%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)17.84excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)31.64strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.19right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.83mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.77
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+1982.89%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.84%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.843%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.455%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.248%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.23%4h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.843%VaR₉₉−1.455%ES₉₅−1.248%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 4h duration
PEAK45705.00$
−2.23% drawdown over 4h
44686.00$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.48× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 1.73× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.28% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
63.1 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.664 · within band
Bollinger upper
$482.8961
Bollinger MA
$465.0640
Bollinger lower
$447.2319

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.126within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.120lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.491random-walk
OLS TREND · t-STAT+6.834significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]random-walk · H = 0.491
H = 0.491RANDOM-WALK
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..52 SIGNIFICANT LAGS · k=4,5
k=1-0.126k=2-0.120k=3-0.021k=4 ★-0.469k=5+0.4230+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.83)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.14low · ~ unpredictable|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.83)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$100.28M
Open interest (USD)
$212.81M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.47x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.17% · worst -1.63% · typical |Δ| 0.82%MILD BULLISH +5.43%BEST+3.17%22hWORST-1.63%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.82%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+5.43%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.22% · Σ -1.75%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.29% · Σ +2.33%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.61% · Σ +4.85%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +5.43%+6.68%0.00%2.45% · 12h2.45% · 12h2.45%12h-0.72% · 13h-0.72% · 13h-0.72%13h0.03% · 14h0.03% · 14h0.03%14h0.06% · 15h0.06% · 15h0.06%15h-1.63% · 16h-1.63% · 16h-1.63%16h▼ WORST2.32% · 17h2.32% · 17h2.32%17h-0.72% · 18h-0.72% · 18h-0.72%18h-0.57% · 19h-0.57% · 19h-0.57%19h0.40% · 20h0.40% · 20h0.40%20h-0.32% · 21h-0.32% · 21h-0.32%21h3.17% · 22h3.17% · 22h3.17%22h★ BEST2.21% · 23h2.21% · 23h2.21%23h-0.86% · 00h-0.86% · 00h-0.86%00h-0.32% · 01h-0.32% · 01h-0.32%01h-0.60% · 02h-0.60% · 02h-0.60%02h-0.33% · 03h-0.33% · 03h-0.33%03h0.96% · 04h0.96% · 04h0.96%04h-0.27% · 05h-0.27% · 05h-0.27%05h0.21% · 06h0.21% · 06h0.21%06h-0.53% · 07h-0.53% · 07h-0.53%07h0.09% · 08h0.09% · 08h0.09%08h0.66% · 09h0.66% · 09h0.66%09h-0.17% · 10h-0.17% · 10h-0.17%10h-0.07% · 11h-0.07% · 11h-0.07%11hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+4.85%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 3.17% · worst -1.63% · typical |Δ| 0.819%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +5.41%FINAL+5.41%MAX DD-2.25%RECOVERYONGOING · 4 barsMAX RUN-UP+6.74%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0541 · peak 1.0674 · range [1.0000, 1.0674]1.06741.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0674UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.25% · moderate0%-2.25%▼ TROUGH -2.25%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.25%bar 3-6 · 4 bars · recovered#2 -2.10%bar 14-25 · 12 bars · ONGOING#3 -1.29%bar 8-11 · 4 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.25%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 1.0541 (5.41%) · max DD -2.25% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +11 / −8 (58% positive) · μ=11.48 · σ=22.67MIXED EDGELAST 7.04 (-0.20σ vs μ)41.4620.730.00-20.73-41.46μ = 11.4823.8223.82-7.71-7.71-6.02-6.02-1.71-1.71-6.06-6.0640.6640.6640.1640.1638.2238.2241.4641.4630.1130.1129.9429.9414.0014.00-35.35-35.35-9.74-9.74-15.03-15.033.673.6731.2731.27-0.55-0.557.047.04v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 7.036 · range [-35.35, 41.46] · μ 11.483 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=107.3311 · σ=47.6356 · range [37.4884, 159.1273] · R²=0.624▼ FALLING -75.60%σ EXTREME 44.38%LAST 37.4884159.1273128.717698.307967.898137.4884μ = 107.3311max 159.1273min 37.4884dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.62μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 37.49% · range [37.49%, 159.13%] · μ 107.33% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.215 · σ=0.297MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.253 (-0.13σ vs μ)0.6120.3060.000-0.306-0.612μ = -0.215-0.362-0.362-0.612-0.612-0.583-0.583-0.596-0.596-0.581-0.581-0.169-0.1690.2830.283-0.028-0.0280.0570.0570.1360.1360.3610.361-0.176-0.176-0.020-0.020-0.164-0.164-0.287-0.287-0.558-0.558-0.228-0.228-0.308-0.308-0.253-0.253v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.253 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
6.3920
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0409
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
13.6016
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0184
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.9075
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3393
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.2965
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1948
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7552
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0091
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.8558
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3921
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.740 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.35e-4 · top T=2.67h (39.2%) · top-3 cover 69.7%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)6.4e-44.8e-43.2e-41.6e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.94e-5 · 1.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.94e-5 · 1.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.45e-4 · 8.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.45e-4 · 8.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.66e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.66e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.41e-4 · 14.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.41e-4 · 14.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.54e-4 · 15.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.54e-4 · 15.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.53e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.53e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.64e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.64e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.21e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.21e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.37e-4 · 39.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.37e-4 · 39.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.43e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.43e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.09e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.09e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.78e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.78e-6 · 0.4% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=4.80h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 39.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.624e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 0.77× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 0.76× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.07%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.07%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.77×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
0.76×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.39×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.19×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.0×0.6×1.2×1.7×2.3×2.9×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.19× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -2.98400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.19× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.001
annualized -2.98
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.02%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.04×1.06×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 190% · APY 95% · Sharpe 1.20σ ann 158% · Sortino 1.61 · n 4999
0%46%91%137%182%228%189.9%APR (simple)94.9%APY (compound)158.1%Ann. vol σ120.2%Sharpe (ann)160.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
435.088447.346459.603471.861484.119496.376t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:41:15 UTC
Snapshot age
1.6s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:41:17 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
8abd5a5981c10881b3ad62c54a436de2d036b6242bd67d5f1db228e7398750d1 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,678HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.8HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,726.5

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$29.92K
bid $27.35K · ask $2.57K
Depth within 5bp
$148.09K
bid $96.30K · ask $51.79K
Depth within 10bp
$210.10K
bid $121.76K · ask $88.35K
Depth within 50bp
$210.10K
bid $121.76K · ask $88.35K
Mid price
470.935000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
0.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.159
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.438
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ZEC/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K470.940.12bp470.952FILLED
BUY$10.00K470.991.26bp471.015FILLED
BUY$100.00K471.154.59bp471.2420PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K470.930.11bp470.931FILLED
SELL$10.00K470.910.53bp470.902FILLED
SELL$100.00K470.792.98bp470.6417FILLED

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-ZEC/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$476.00–$477.001$20.40K
$472.00–$473.002$12.30K
$471.00–$472.004$18.64K
$470.00–$471.002$12.42K
$468.00–$469.003$11.28K
$466.00–$467.002$11.95K
$457.00–$458.002$17.14K
$454.00–$455.002$21.04K
$453.00–$454.00★3$63.78K
$451.00–$452.002$12.80K
$446.00–$447.002$18.37K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ZEC/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BALANCED · -0.002 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$107.95K
real volume
Sell weight
$108.42K
real volume
Net delta
$476
sellers net
Imbalance
-0.22%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
0.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ZEC/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.23% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 13:00:00Z3.0h457.05→446.862.230%4
#22026-06-20 00:00:00Z3.0h476.80→466.832.091%4
#32026-06-19 18:00:00Z2.0h457.33→451.471.281%3

/api/asset/hl-ZEC/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
158.06%
σ per bar = 0.000689
Mean return (annualised)
189.94%
μ per bar = 0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
1.20
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
5.01%
peak 476.93 → trough 453.03 over 1583 bars

/api/asset/hl-ZEC/risk · same metrics, JSON