HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ANIME

ANIME-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-anime · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.18%
realized vol (ann.)
55.67%
max drawdown
2.74%
sharpe
-55.23
ulcer index
1.17%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.93%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2627.76
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.57%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.91
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1196.33
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.91
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.18%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-3.59%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 33%
  • 24h change -3.18%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 10.4bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-anime/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH456ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.003
24h Δ · live
-3.18%
24h vol · live
$0.2M
ANIME · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0030 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0029, 0.0030] · R²=0.853▼ FALLING -3.41%σ NORMAL 1.09%LAST 0.00290.00300.00300.00290.00290.0029μ = 0.0030max 0.0030min 0.0029dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.85μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 44.6%Short fee 55.4%SHORT FEE55.4%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.991 / 1.00 bits (99%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
44.6%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
55.4%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.000410% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=53,190,913 · μ=2127636.5 · σ=1289637.3 · CV=0.61STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1201,656,5943,313,1884,969,7816,626,375μ = 21276376,626,37550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 6626375 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
456ms
$mark $
$0.0029
$mid $
$0.0029
◉prev-day close
$0.003
Δ24h Δ %
-3.184%
$24h vol $
$154.84k
◐open interest $
$126.62k
%funding (1h)
-0.000410%
%funding (yr)
-3.59%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0030 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0029, 0.0030] · R²=0.853▼ FALLING -3.41%σ NORMAL 1.09%LAST 0.00290.00300.00300.00290.00290.0029μ = 0.0030max 0.0030min 0.0029dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.85μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0029 · 24h -3.18% · range $[0.0029, 0.0030]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 9 · down 16 (36% up) · range [0.0029, 0.0030] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=51%STRONG BEARISH -3.25%CLOSE 0.0029 vs OPEN 0.0030 (-3.25%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.00290.00300.00300.00300.00290.0029μ close = 0.0030O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.17%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.17%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.70%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.70%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.30%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.30%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.37%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.37%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.27%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.27%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.47%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.47%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.30%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.30%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.77%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.77%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.66%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.66%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.20%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.20%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.97%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.97%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.20%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.20%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.20%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.20%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.17%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.17%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.44%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.44%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.10%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.10%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.34%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.34%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.54%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.54%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.55%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.55%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.17%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.17%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.58%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.58%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.82%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.82%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.41%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.41%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.48%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.48%)-1.1%O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-1.06%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-1.06%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=53,190,913 · μ=2127636.5 · σ=1289637.3 · CV=0.61STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1201,656,5943,313,1884,969,7816,626,375μ = 21276371,241,744 · 18.7% peak1,241,744 · 18.7% peak835,382 · 12.6% peak835,382 · 12.6% peak6,626,3756,626,375 · 100.0% peak6,626,375 · 100.0% peak1,491,313 · 22.5% peak1,491,313 · 22.5% peak1,395,806 · 21.1% peak1,395,806 · 21.1% peak1,707,257 · 25.8% peak1,707,257 · 25.8% peak2,452,526 · 37.0% peak2,452,526 · 37.0% peak2,305,121 · 34.8% peak2,305,121 · 34.8% peak1,477,006 · 22.3% peak1,477,006 · 22.3% peak2,146,052 · 32.4% peak2,146,052 · 32.4% peak3,984,972 · 60.1% peak3,984,972 · 60.1% peak3,344,143 · 50.5% peak3,344,143 · 50.5% peak1,296,967 · 19.6% peak1,296,967 · 19.6% peak1,774,829 · 26.8% peak1,774,829 · 26.8% peak2,032,585 · 30.7% peak2,032,585 · 30.7% peak1,839,251 · 27.8% peak1,839,251 · 27.8% peak4,420,360 · 66.7% peak4,420,360 · 66.7% peak648,378 · 9.8% peak648,378 · 9.8% peak2,331,520 · 35.2% peak2,331,520 · 35.2% peak1,871,510 · 28.2% peak1,871,510 · 28.2% peak1,323,700 · 20.0% peak1,323,700 · 20.0% peak1,092,966 · 16.5% peak1,092,966 · 16.5% peak2,086,215 · 31.5% peak2,086,215 · 31.5% peak1,983,006 · 29.9% peak1,983,006 · 29.9% peak1,481,929 · 22.4% peak1,481,929 · 22.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 53190913 · peak 6626375 · CV 0.61

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0016 · σ=0.0049 · skew=0.39 (symmetric) · kurt=-1.00 (mesokurtic)65320 1-99.12bpbin -99.12bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -99.12bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-83.83bpbin -83.83bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -83.83bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-68.53bpbin -68.53bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -68.53bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 4-53.24bpbin -53.24bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin -53.24bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 6-37.95bpbin -37.95bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -37.95bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 2-22.65bpbin -22.65bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -22.65bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 1-7.36bpbin -7.36bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -7.36bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak7.93bp 323.23bpbin 23.23bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 23.23bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak38.52bp 353.82bpbin 53.82bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 53.82bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 269.11bpbin 69.11bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 69.11bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 8 · negative 16
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.37 · kurt=-0.75 · near 18 / mid 6 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0029
Mid price
$0.0029
24h change
-3.18%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.003

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0030$95% CI: [0.0030$, 0.0030$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.09%
med MEDIAN0.0030$Q₁ 0.0029$ · Q₃ 0.0030$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0001$ · IQR 0.0000$ (1.349σ→0.0000$)
min 0.0029$Q₁ 0.0029$med 0.0030$Q₃ 0.0030$max 0.0030$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.427approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.887mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.25
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.91
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.72
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-26.88
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.144622%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.287
σᵣ STD / h0.503497%σ²ᵣ = 0.254×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.48×
σ ANNUALISED47.12%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.503%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-26.88negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-26.53downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.40approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.64mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.99
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1266.88%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.81%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.807%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.015%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.953%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.99%23h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.807%VaR₉₉−1.015%ES₉₅−0.953%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 23h duration
PEAK0.30$
−3.99% drawdown over 23h
0.29$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.18× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.26× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.16% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
31.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
-0.036 · below lower band
Bollinger upper
$0.0030
Bollinger MA
$0.0030
Bollinger lower
$0.0029

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.44 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.444negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.269lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.620persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-11.555significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.620
H = 0.620PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.444k=2+0.269k=3-0.292k=4+0.202k=5-0.1900+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=11.56)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.44 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.68very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=11.56)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$154.84k
Open interest (USD)
$126.62k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.22x
1h funding
-0.000410%
Funding (annualised)
-3.59%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.77% · worst -1.07% · typical |Δ| 0.46%BEARISH SESSION -3.47%BEST+0.77%21hWORST-1.07%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.46%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.47%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.29% · Σ -2.33%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.09% · Σ -0.74%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.40%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.47%+0.60%-3.47%0.60% · 15h0.60% · 15h0.60%15h-0.33% · 16h-0.33% · 16h-0.33%16h-0.33% · 17h-0.33% · 17h-0.33%17h-0.20% · 18h-0.20% · 18h-0.20%18h0.47% · 19h0.47% · 19h0.47%19h-0.37% · 20h-0.37% · 20h-0.37%20h0.77% · 21h0.77% · 21h0.77%21h★ BEST-0.63% · 22h-0.63% · 22h-0.63%22h0.23% · 23h0.23% · 23h0.23%23h-0.84% · 00h-0.84% · 00h-0.84%00h0.24% · 01h0.24% · 01h0.24%01h-0.37% · 02h-0.37% · 02h-0.37%02h0.17% · 03h0.17% · 03h0.17%03h-0.61% · 04h-0.61% · 04h-0.61%04h-0.14% · 05h-0.14% · 05h-0.14%05h-0.31% · 06h-0.31% · 06h-0.31%06h-0.48% · 07h-0.48% · 07h-0.48%07h0.55% · 08h0.55% · 08h0.55%08h-0.24% · 09h-0.24% · 09h-0.24%09h-0.55% · 10h-0.55% · 10h-0.55%10h0.75% · 11h0.75% · 11h0.75%11h-0.48% · 12h-0.48% · 12h-0.48%12h-0.31% · 13h-0.31% · 13h-0.31%13h-1.07% · 14h-1.07% · 14h-1.07%14h▼ WORSTTIME PATTERNUS-led (+-0.40%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 4BREADTH33% up · 67% down
8 up bars · 16 down · best 0.77% · worst -1.07% · typical |Δ| 0.459%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-3.44%)FINAL-3.44%MAX DD-4.02%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.60%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9656 · peak 1.0060 · range [0.9656, 1.0060]1.00600.9656break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0060UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.02% · moderate0%-4.02%▼ TROUGH -4.02%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -4.02%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.02%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9656 (-3.44%) · max DD -4.02% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-27.76 · σ=26.09UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -49.21 (-0.82σ vs μ)98.2049.100.00-49.10-98.20μ = -27.76-5.92-5.92-0.00-0.00-8.61-8.617.807.80-8.94-8.94-15.34-15.34-15.39-15.39-39.38-39.38-38.90-38.90-56.54-56.54-48.64-48.64-98.20-98.20-29.47-29.47-47.09-47.09-46.06-46.06-7.67-7.67-12.07-12.07-7.73-7.73-49.21-49.21v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -49.214 · range [-98.20, 7.80] · μ -27.756 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=46.1023 · σ=9.5219 · range [25.6811, 60.3592] · R²=0.009▲ RISING +35.54%σ EXTREME 20.65%LAST 55.966560.359251.689643.020134.350625.6811μ = 46.1023max 60.3592min 25.6811dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 55.97% · range [25.68%, 60.36%] · μ 46.10% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.527 · σ=0.195MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.248 (+1.43σ vs μ)0.8370.4190.000-0.419-0.837μ = -0.527-0.308-0.308-0.307-0.307-0.632-0.632-0.837-0.837-0.620-0.620-0.728-0.728-0.653-0.653-0.773-0.773-0.754-0.754-0.638-0.638-0.597-0.597-0.615-0.615-0.344-0.344-0.291-0.291-0.262-0.262-0.366-0.366-0.608-0.608-0.424-0.424-0.248-0.248v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.248 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.0404
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5944
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
12.3888
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0296
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
0.0014
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9560
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.0466
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0407
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8937
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0042
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.7718
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0764
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.461 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.26e-5 · top T=2.00h (51.1%) · top-3 cover 70.7%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.0e-41.5e-41.0e-45.0e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.00e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.00e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.34e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.34e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.08e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.08e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.34e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.34e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.29e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.29e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.74e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.74e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.86e-5 · 9.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.86e-5 · 9.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.04e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.04e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.87e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.87e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.79e-5 · 9.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.79e-5 · 9.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.77e-5 · 7.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.77e-5 · 7.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.00e-4 · 51.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.00e-4 · 51.1% energy50% by T=2.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 51.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.917e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-92.54×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -44.70400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.019
annualized -44.70
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -46.17σ ann 50% · Sortino -23.83 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-5541%-4421%-3300%-2180%-1060%60%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)49.9%Ann. vol σ-4617.3%Sharpe (ann)-2383.1%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.003t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:48:46 UTC
Snapshot age
456ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:48:46 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
abe97733bbd00a24eee8606dc92c8edc3da3904e13dc8054efc1e40bc31e8bbe · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$7.27K
bid $3.50K · ask $3.77K
Depth within 50bp
$61.04K
bid $28.44K · ask $32.61K
Mid price
0.002889
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
10.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.031
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.068
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-anime/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0028915.19bp0.0028911FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00289311.88bp0.0028955FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.00290037.69bp0.00291020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0028886.65bp0.0028872FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00288612.73bp0.0028845FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.00287840.80bp0.00286620PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-4.095e-6
-0.00041% / hr
Annualised APR
-3.590%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
101.7d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
101.7d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE3.590%101.7d2.79y
SHORTPAY-3.590%101.7d2.79y

/api/asset/hl-anime/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$53.19M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-anime/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.402 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
8 / 16
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$15.54M
real volume
Sell weight
$36.41M
real volume
Net delta
$20.87M
sellers net
Imbalance
-40.18%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
40.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-anime/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 1.84% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 13:00:00Z1.0h0.002942→0.0028881.835%2
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z3.0h0.002978→0.0029271.713%4
#32026-06-14 00:00:00Z2.0h0.003008→0.0029671.363%3

/api/asset/hl-anime/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
49.90%
σ per bar = 0.000218
Mean return (annualised)
-2303.79%
μ per bar = -0.000004
Sharpe (rf=0)
-46.17
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.74%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 1392 bars

/api/asset/hl-anime/risk · same metrics, JSON