HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ASTER

ASTER-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-aster · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.83%
realized vol (ann.)
24.37%
max drawdown
0.38%
sharpe
-4.77
ulcer index
0.18%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.16%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-642.40
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.32%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.99
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-362.07
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.99
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.83%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-aster/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.7s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.633
24h Δ · live
-0.83%
24h vol · live
$0.8M
ASTER · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.6371 · σ=0.0031 · range [0.6318, 0.6424] · R²=0.686▼ FALLING -0.87%σ LOW 0.49%LAST 0.63260.64240.63970.63710.63450.6318μ = 0.6371max 0.6424min 0.6318dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.69μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.63
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,212,187 · μ=48487.5 · σ=37670.0 · CV=0.78FADING -40% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=9034,02368,046102,069136,092μ = 48487136,09250%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 136092 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.7s
$mark $
$0.6326
$mid $
$0.6326
◉prev-day close
$0.6379
Δ24h Δ %
-0.831%
$24h vol $
$772.66k
◐open interest $
$22.21M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.6371 · σ=0.0031 · range [0.6318, 0.6424] · R²=0.686▼ FALLING -0.87%σ LOW 0.49%LAST 0.63260.64240.63970.63710.63450.6318μ = 0.6371max 0.6424min 0.6318dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.69μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.6326 · 24h -0.83% · range $[0.6318, 0.6424]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.6308, 0.6440] · σ=0.0031 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=37%BEARISH -0.83%CLOSE 0.6326 vs OPEN 0.6379 (-0.83%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.63260.64400.64070.63740.63410.6308μ close = 0.6371O0.638 H0.640 L0.637 C0.638 (+0.04%)O0.638 H0.640 L0.637 C0.638 (+0.04%)O0.638 H0.640 L0.638 C0.639 (+0.14%)O0.638 H0.640 L0.638 C0.639 (+0.14%)0.5%O0.639 H0.644 L0.638 C0.642 (+0.54%)O0.639 H0.644 L0.638 C0.642 (+0.54%)O0.642 H0.642 L0.640 C0.640 (-0.26%)O0.642 H0.642 L0.640 C0.640 (-0.26%)O0.640 H0.641 L0.638 C0.638 (-0.27%)O0.640 H0.641 L0.638 C0.638 (-0.27%)O0.638 H0.639 L0.634 C0.637 (-0.20%)O0.638 H0.639 L0.634 C0.637 (-0.20%)O0.637 H0.638 L0.637 C0.638 (+0.15%)O0.637 H0.638 L0.637 C0.638 (+0.15%)O0.638 H0.641 L0.638 C0.640 (+0.37%)O0.638 H0.641 L0.638 C0.640 (+0.37%)O0.640 H0.642 L0.639 C0.640 (-0.02%)O0.640 H0.642 L0.639 C0.640 (-0.02%)O0.640 H0.641 L0.639 C0.640 (+0.03%)O0.640 H0.641 L0.639 C0.640 (+0.03%)O0.640 H0.641 L0.639 C0.641 (+0.10%)O0.640 H0.641 L0.639 C0.641 (+0.10%)O0.641 H0.641 L0.639 C0.640 (-0.15%)O0.641 H0.641 L0.639 C0.640 (-0.15%)O0.640 H0.641 L0.639 C0.640 (+0.03%)O0.640 H0.641 L0.639 C0.640 (+0.03%)O0.640 H0.640 L0.637 C0.638 (-0.32%)O0.640 H0.640 L0.637 C0.638 (-0.32%)O0.638 H0.639 L0.637 C0.637 (-0.19%)O0.638 H0.639 L0.637 C0.637 (-0.19%)O0.637 H0.637 L0.636 C0.636 (-0.13%)O0.637 H0.637 L0.636 C0.636 (-0.13%)O0.636 H0.638 L0.636 C0.637 (+0.23%)O0.636 H0.638 L0.636 C0.637 (+0.23%)O0.637 H0.637 L0.633 C0.635 (-0.31%)O0.637 H0.637 L0.633 C0.635 (-0.31%)O0.634 H0.636 L0.634 C0.635 (+0.03%)O0.634 H0.636 L0.634 C0.635 (+0.03%)O0.634 H0.636 L0.634 C0.634 (-0.09%)O0.634 H0.636 L0.634 C0.634 (-0.09%)O0.634 H0.634 L0.631 C0.633 (-0.15%)O0.634 H0.634 L0.631 C0.633 (-0.15%)O0.632 H0.633 L0.631 C0.632 (+0.00%)O0.632 H0.633 L0.631 C0.632 (+0.00%)O0.632 H0.633 L0.631 C0.632 (-0.06%)O0.632 H0.633 L0.631 C0.632 (-0.06%)O0.632 H0.635 L0.631 C0.633 (+0.14%)O0.632 H0.635 L0.631 C0.633 (+0.14%)O0.633 H0.633 L0.633 C0.633 (+0.00%)O0.633 H0.633 L0.633 C0.633 (+0.00%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,212,187 · μ=48487.5 · σ=37670.0 · CV=0.78FADING -40% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=9034,02368,046102,069136,092μ = 4848740,270 · 29.6% peak40,270 · 29.6% peak53,419 · 39.3% peak53,419 · 39.3% peak136,092136,092 · 100.0% peak136,092 · 100.0% peak54,165 · 39.8% peak54,165 · 39.8% peak127,032 · 93.3% peak127,032 · 93.3% peak121,889 · 89.6% peak121,889 · 89.6% peak28,964 · 21.3% peak28,964 · 21.3% peak20,036 · 14.7% peak20,036 · 14.7% peak95,689 · 70.3% peak95,689 · 70.3% peak15,709 · 11.5% peak15,709 · 11.5% peak32,629 · 24.0% peak32,629 · 24.0% peak29,394 · 21.6% peak29,394 · 21.6% peak22,274 · 16.4% peak22,274 · 16.4% peak49,099 · 36.1% peak49,099 · 36.1% peak33,791 · 24.8% peak33,791 · 24.8% peak9,677 · 7.1% peak9,677 · 7.1% peak39,661 · 29.1% peak39,661 · 29.1% peak30,659 · 22.5% peak30,659 · 22.5% peak17,686 · 13.0% peak17,686 · 13.0% peak6,448 · 4.7% peak6,448 · 4.7% peak68,301 · 50.2% peak68,301 · 50.2% peak82,094 · 60.3% peak82,094 · 60.3% peak58,623 · 43.1% peak58,623 · 43.1% peak38,542 · 28.3% peak38,542 · 28.3% peak44 · 0.0% peak44 · 0.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1212187 · peak 136092 · CV 0.78

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0004 · σ=0.0021 · skew=0.67 (right-skewed) · kurt=0.25 (mesokurtic)54310 3-34.60bpbin -34.60bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -34.60bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 1-26.79bpbin -26.79bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -26.79bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 4-18.98bpbin -18.98bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -18.98bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 3-11.16bpbin -11.16bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -11.16bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 5-3.35bpbin -3.35bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -3.35bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 14.47bpbin 4.47bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 4.47bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 412.28bpbin 12.28bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 12.28bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 120.10bpbin 20.10bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 20.10bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak27.91bp 135.72bpbin 35.72bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 35.72bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak43.54bp 151.35bpbin 51.35bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 51.35bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 8 · negative 16
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.72 · kurt=0.49 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.6326
Mid price
$0.6326
24h change
-0.83%
Mark–mid spread
0.08 bps
Prev-day close
$0.6379

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.30)
μ MEAN0.6371$95% CI: [0.6359$, 0.6384$]
σ STD DEV0.0031$σ² = 0.098×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.49%
med MEDIAN0.6380$Q₁ 0.6346$ · Q₃ 0.6399$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0105$ · IQR 0.0053$ (1.349σ→0.0042$)
min 0.6318$Q₁ 0.6346$med 0.6380$Q₃ 0.6399$max 0.6424$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.293approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.296platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.27
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.79
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.37
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-15.33
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.036395%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.164
σᵣ STD / h0.222279%σ²ᵣ = 0.049×10⁻⁴ · CV = 6.11×
σ ANNUALISED20.80%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.222%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-15.33negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-17.29downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.77right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.91mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.13
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-318.82%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKMODERATE · 95% VaR 0.33%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.332%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.374%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.360%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.64%20h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.332%VaR₉₉−0.374%ES₉₅−0.360%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 20h duration
PEAK64.24$
−1.64% drawdown over 20h
63.18$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.09× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.13× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.67% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
38.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.186 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.6427
Bollinger MA
$0.6365
Bollinger lower
$0.6303

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.006within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.150lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.909strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-7.091significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.909
H = 0.909STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.006k=2-0.150k=3-0.222k=4-0.001k=5+0.2000+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.09)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.82very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.09)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$772.66k
Open interest (USD)
$22.21M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.03x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.55% · worst -0.39% · typical |Δ| 0.17%BEARISH SESSION -0.87%BEST+0.55%13hWORST-0.39%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.17%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.87%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.15% · Σ -1.18%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.04% · Σ +0.30%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.87%+0.66%-1.00%0.10% · 12h0.10% · 12h0.10%12h0.55% · 13h0.55% · 13h0.55%13h★ BEST-0.31% · 14h-0.31% · 14h-0.31%14h-0.33% · 15h-0.33% · 15h-0.33%15h-0.16% · 16h-0.16% · 16h-0.16%16h0.12% · 17h0.12% · 17h0.12%17h0.36% · 18h0.36% · 18h0.36%18h-0.03% · 19h-0.03% · 19h-0.03%19h-0.02% · 20h-0.02% · 20h-0.02%20h0.12% · 21h0.12% · 21h0.12%21h-0.12% · 22h-0.12% · 22h-0.12%22h0.03% · 23h0.03% · 23h0.03%23h-0.31% · 00h-0.31% · 00h-0.31%00h-0.19% · 01h-0.19% · 01h-0.19%01h-0.17% · 02h-0.17% · 02h-0.17%02h0.23% · 03h0.23% · 03h0.23%03h-0.39% · 04h-0.39% · 04h-0.39%04h▼ WORST-0.06% · 05h-0.06% · 05h-0.06%05h-0.12% · 06h-0.12% · 06h-0.12%06h-0.19% · 07h-0.19% · 07h-0.19%07h-0.03% · 08h-0.03% · 08h-0.03%08h-0.10% · 09h-0.10% · 09h-0.10%09h0.14% · 10h0.14% · 10h0.14%10h-0.01% · 11h-0.01% · 11h-0.01%11hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.30%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 6BREADTH33% up · 67% down
8 up bars · 16 down · best 0.55% · worst -0.39% · typical |Δ| 0.174%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.88%)FINAL-0.88%MAX DD-1.64%RECOVERYONGOING · 22 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.66%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9912 · peak 1.0066 · range [0.9900, 1.0066]1.00660.9900break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0066UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.64% · moderate0%-1.64%▼ TROUGH -1.64%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -1.64%bar 4-25 · 22 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.64%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9912 (-0.88%) · max DD -1.64% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-29.58 · σ=38.43UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -43.61 (-0.37σ vs μ)105.7552.880.00-52.88-105.75μ = -29.58-1.45-1.459.439.43-21.13-21.13-4.33-4.3334.3134.3139.4739.4731.8531.85-34.05-34.05-48.06-48.06-63.02-63.02-42.52-42.52-53.77-53.77-62.56-62.56-52.68-52.68-52.30-52.30-41.55-41.55-105.75-105.75-50.29-50.29-43.61-43.61v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -43.610 · range [-105.75, 39.47] · μ -29.579 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=18.6090 · σ=6.3760 · range [10.3063, 34.3823] · R²=0.452▼ FALLING -66.76%σ EXTREME 34.26%LAST 10.462134.382328.363322.344316.325310.3063μ = 18.6090max 34.3823min 10.3063dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.45μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 10.46% · range [10.31%, 34.38%] · μ 18.61% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.171 · σ=0.287MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.038 (+0.73σ vs μ)0.6250.3130.000-0.313-0.625μ = -0.1710.0400.0400.0480.0480.4640.4640.2460.246-0.135-0.135-0.149-0.149-0.228-0.228-0.300-0.300-0.004-0.004-0.088-0.088-0.132-0.132-0.467-0.467-0.472-0.472-0.603-0.603-0.625-0.625-0.532-0.532-0.239-0.239-0.107-0.1070.0380.038v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.038 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
3.2171
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2002
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.4210
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6379
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.6231
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8574
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.1574
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8749
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7271
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0111
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.7591
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4478
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.769 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.97e-6 · top T=4.80h (19.1%) · top-3 cover 46.9%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.1e-58.5e-65.7e-62.8e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.65e-6 · 7.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.65e-6 · 7.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.90e-6 · 3.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.90e-6 · 3.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.02e-6 · 15.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.02e-6 · 15.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.44e-6 · 4.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.44e-6 · 4.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.14e-5 · 19.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.14e-5 · 19.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.61e-6 · 6.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.61e-6 · 6.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.83e-6 · 8.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.83e-6 · 8.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.85e-7 · 1.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.85e-7 · 1.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.89e-6 · 11.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.89e-6 · 11.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.53e-6 · 12.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.53e-6 · 12.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.18e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.18e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.57e-6 · 9.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.57e-6 · 9.3% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=4.80h#2T=8.00h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.80h (freq 0.208) · concentrates 19.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 5.961e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.01%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.01%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-119.24×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -27.37400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.012
annualized -27.37
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -665% · APY -100% · Sharpe -28.15σ ann 24% · Sortino -16.62 · n 4999
-3378%-2697%-2016%-1334%-653%28%-664.7%APR (simple)-99.9%APY (compound)23.6%Ann. vol σ-2815.3%Sharpe (ann)-1661.6%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.6060.6170.6290.6410.6520.664t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:00:20 UTC
Snapshot age
4.7s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:00:25 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
faf1cc72fdc08fd4dac05182d3498f42e5458f8a9aa5f381f09425117877bc70 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$3.43K
bid $11 · ask $3.42K
Depth within 5bp
$16.31K
bid $1.08K · ask $15.24K
Depth within 10bp
$73.87K
bid $27.77K · ask $46.11K
Depth within 50bp
$89.92K
bid $43.82K · ask $46.11K
Mid price
0.632605
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
0.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.025
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.564
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-aster/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.6326100.08bp0.6326101FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.6327091.64bp0.6328208FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.6329866.02bp0.63320020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.6323733.66bp0.6323404FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.6322685.33bp0.6322507FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.6320788.33bp0.63188020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-aster/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.21M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-aster/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.366 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
8 / 16
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$371.62K
real volume
Sell weight
$800.30K
real volume
Net delta
$428.68K
sellers net
Imbalance
-36.58%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
36.6%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-aster/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 0.80% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 15:00:00Z1.0h0.642370→0.6372100.803%2
#22026-06-14 02:00:00Z0ms0.640150→0.6359100.662%1
#32026-06-14 06:00:00Z0ms0.637390→0.6338400.557%1

/api/asset/hl-aster/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
23.61%
σ per bar = 0.000103
Mean return (annualised)
-664.71%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-28.15
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.10%
peak 0.64 → trough 0.63 over 3298 bars

/api/asset/hl-aster/risk · same metrics, JSON