HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

AZTEC

AZTEC-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-aztec · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.24%
realized vol (ann.)
117.86%
max drawdown
2.99%
sharpe
-34.56
ulcer index
1.47%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.27%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.06%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2770.31
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.78%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.93
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1463.84
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.93
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.24%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-12.50%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 36%
  • 24h change -3.24%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 23.0bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-aztec/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.016
24h Δ · live
-3.24%
24h vol · live
$0.2M
AZTEC · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0165 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0159, 0.0171] · R²=0.816▼ FALLING -3.00%σ NORMAL 1.78%LAST 0.01610.01710.01680.01650.01620.0159μ = 0.0165max 0.0171min 0.0159dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.82μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.02
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.3%Short fee 51.7%SHORT FEE51.7%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.3%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.7%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.001427% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=9,558,931 · μ=382357.2 · σ=505767.2 · CV=1.32BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=160417,878835,7561,253,6341,671,512μ = 3823571,671,51250%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1671512 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.5s
$mark $
$0.016
$mid $
$0.016
◉prev-day close
$0.0166
Δ24h Δ %
-3.244%
$24h vol $
$154.02k
◐open interest $
$1.16M
%funding (1h)
-0.001427%
%funding (yr)
-12.50%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0165 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0159, 0.0171] · R²=0.816▼ FALLING -3.00%σ NORMAL 1.78%LAST 0.01610.01710.01680.01650.01620.0159μ = 0.0165max 0.0171min 0.0159dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.82μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0160 · 24h -3.24% · range $[0.0159, 0.0171]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.0159, 0.0173] · σ=0.0003 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=47%BEARISH -3.51%CLOSE 0.0161 vs OPEN 0.0166 (-3.51%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.01610.01730.01700.01660.01630.0159μ close = 0.0165O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.53%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.53%)2.2%O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+2.25%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+2.25%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.01%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.01%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+1.80%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+1.80%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-1.46%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-1.46%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.55%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.55%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.02%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.02%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+1.25%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+1.25%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.48%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.48%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.96%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.96%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.23%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.23%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.59%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.59%)O0.016 H0.017 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.26%)O0.016 H0.017 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.26%)O0.016 H0.017 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.03%)O0.016 H0.017 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.03%)O0.016 H0.017 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.57%)O0.016 H0.017 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.57%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.016 C0.016 (-1.29%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.016 C0.016 (-1.29%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.26%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.26%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.11%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.11%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.16%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.16%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.25%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.25%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.27%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.27%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.11%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.11%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.49%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.49%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-1.69%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-1.69%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.68%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.68%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=9,558,931 · μ=382357.2 · σ=505767.2 · CV=1.32BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=160417,878835,7561,253,6341,671,512μ = 382357205,558 · 12.3% peak205,558 · 12.3% peak155,812 · 9.3% peak155,812 · 9.3% peak1,671,5121,671,512 · 100.0% peak1,671,512 · 100.0% peak791,277 · 47.3% peak791,277 · 47.3% peak48,039 · 2.9% peak48,039 · 2.9% peak278,133 · 16.6% peak278,133 · 16.6% peak96,828 · 5.8% peak96,828 · 5.8% peak196,195 · 11.7% peak196,195 · 11.7% peak65,021 · 3.9% peak65,021 · 3.9% peak117,063 · 7.0% peak117,063 · 7.0% peak79,912 · 4.8% peak79,912 · 4.8% peak52,105 · 3.1% peak52,105 · 3.1% peak219,447 · 13.1% peak219,447 · 13.1% peak198,798 · 11.9% peak198,798 · 11.9% peak46,283 · 2.8% peak46,283 · 2.8% peak1,294,024 · 77.4% peak1,294,024 · 77.4% peak832,243 · 49.8% peak832,243 · 49.8% peak95,590 · 5.7% peak95,590 · 5.7% peak91,102 · 5.5% peak91,102 · 5.5% peak74,344 · 4.4% peak74,344 · 4.4% peak100,421 · 6.0% peak100,421 · 6.0% peak103,745 · 6.2% peak103,745 · 6.2% peak44,247 · 2.6% peak44,247 · 2.6% peak1,319,586 · 78.9% peak1,319,586 · 78.9% peak1,381,646 · 82.7% peak1,381,646 · 82.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 9558931 · peak 1671512 · CV 1.32

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0014 · σ=0.0087 · skew=0.62 (right-skewed) · kurt=0.42 (mesokurtic)43210 3-143.55bpbin -143.55bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -143.55bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 1-110.36bpbin -110.36bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -110.36bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 3-77.17bpbin -77.17bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -77.17bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 4-43.98bpbin -43.98bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -43.98bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 4-10.79bpbin -10.79bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -10.79bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 422.40bpbin 22.40bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 22.40bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 155.59bpbin 55.59bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 55.59bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 288.78bpbin 88.78bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 88.78bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1121.97bpbin 121.97bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 121.97bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak155.15bp188.34bp 1221.53bpbin 221.53bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 221.53bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 15
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.67 · kurt=0.77 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.016
Mid price
$0.016
24h change
-3.24%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0166

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0165$95% CI: [0.0164$, 0.0166$]
σ STD DEV0.0003$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.78%
med MEDIAN0.0164$Q₁ 0.0163$ · Q₃ 0.0167$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0012$ · IQR 0.0004$ (1.349σ→0.0004$)
min 0.0159$Q₁ 0.0163$med 0.0164$Q₃ 0.0167$max 0.0171$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.150approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.903mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.25
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.95
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.92
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-13.00
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.126729%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.139
σᵣ STD / h0.912494%σ²ᵣ = 0.833×10⁻⁴ · CV = 7.20×
σ ANNUALISED85.40%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.912%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-13.00negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-14.37downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.72right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.26leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.11
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1110.15%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.45%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.454%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.568%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.529%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN6.75%20h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.454%VaR₉₉−1.568%ES₉₅−1.529%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 20h duration
PEAK1.71$
−6.75% drawdown over 20h
1.59$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.05× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.08× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +7.24% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
39.6 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.140 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0169
Bollinger MA
$0.0164
Bollinger lower
$0.0159

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.21 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.208within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.078lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.815strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-10.101significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.815
H = 0.815STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.208k=2+0.078k=3-0.355k=4+0.137k=5-0.0260+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.10)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.21 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.84very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.10)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$154.02k
Open interest (USD)
$1.16M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.13x
1h funding
-0.001427%
Funding (annualised)
-12.50%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.38% · worst -1.60% · typical |Δ| 0.69%BEARISH SESSION -3.04%BEST+2.38%14hWORST-1.60%12hTYPICAL |Δ|0.69%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.04%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.15% · Σ -1.22%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.26%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.26% · Σ -2.08%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.04%+3.07%-3.92%2.38% · 14h2.38% · 14h2.38%14h★ BEST-0.49% · 15h-0.49% · 15h-0.49%15h1.18% · 16h1.18% · 16h1.18%16h-1.46% · 17h-1.46% · 17h-1.46%17h-0.61% · 18h-0.61% · 18h-0.61%18h-0.07% · 19h-0.07% · 19h-0.07%19h1.02% · 20h1.02% · 20h1.02%20h-0.34% · 21h-0.34% · 21h-0.34%21h-1.44% · 22h-1.44% · 22h-1.44%22h-0.37% · 23h-0.37% · 23h-0.37%23h-0.72% · 00h-0.72% · 00h-0.72%00h0.14% · 01h0.14% · 01h0.14%01h-0.03% · 02h-0.03% · 02h-0.03%02h0.33% · 03h0.33% · 03h0.33%03h-1.14% · 04h-1.14% · 04h-1.14%04h0.31% · 05h0.31% · 05h0.31%05h-0.22% · 06h-0.22% · 06h-0.22%06h0.11% · 07h0.11% · 07h0.11%07h-0.50% · 08h-0.50% · 08h-0.50%08h0.44% · 09h0.44% · 09h0.44%09h-0.17% · 10h-0.17% · 10h-0.17%10h-0.68% · 11h-0.68% · 11h-0.68%11h-1.60% · 12h-1.60% · 12h-1.60%12h▼ WORST0.88% · 13h0.88% · 13h0.88%13hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.26%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 4BREADTH38% up · 63% down
9 up bars · 15 down · best 2.38% · worst -1.60% · typical |Δ| 0.693%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-3.09%)FINAL-3.09%MAX DD-6.81%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+3.08%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9691 · peak 1.0308 · range [0.9606, 1.0308]1.03080.9606break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0308UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -6.81% · significant0%-6.81%▼ TROUGH -6.81%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -6.81%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.49%bar 3-3 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -6.81%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9691 (-3.09%) · max DD -6.81% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-30.16 · σ=20.97UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -29.08 (+0.05σ vs μ)76.3438.170.00-38.17-76.34μ = -30.1610.4610.46-6.54-6.54-4.33-4.33-48.49-48.49-35.21-35.21-36.89-36.89-32.11-32.11-76.34-76.34-49.71-49.71-49.86-49.86-28.50-28.50-17.33-17.33-18.25-18.25-30.45-30.45-26.72-26.72-1.63-1.63-39.48-39.48-52.55-52.55-29.08-29.08v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -29.076 · range [-76.34, 10.46] · μ -30.157 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=67.7391 · σ=23.2684 · range [33.0004, 130.0509] · R²=0.492▼ FALLING -37.05%σ EXTREME 34.35%LAST 81.8671130.0509105.788381.525757.263033.0004μ = 67.7391max 130.0509min 33.0004dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.49μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 81.87% · range [33.00%, 130.05%] · μ 67.74% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.251 · σ=0.296MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.294 (-0.15σ vs μ)0.7070.3540.000-0.354-0.707μ = -0.251-0.243-0.243-0.294-0.294-0.251-0.2510.1770.1770.0940.0940.1230.123-0.017-0.017-0.077-0.0770.1040.104-0.258-0.258-0.549-0.549-0.579-0.579-0.614-0.614-0.674-0.674-0.459-0.459-0.707-0.707-0.374-0.3740.1300.130-0.294-0.294v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.294 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
3.6347
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1625
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.6931
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3370
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.7863
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8195
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.1214
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0339
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (17 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8372
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0058
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.3338
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1823
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.594 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=7.99e-5 · top T=6.00h (27.4%) · top-3 cover 59.9%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.6e-42.0e-41.3e-46.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.23e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.23e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.34e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.34e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.66e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.66e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.63e-4 · 27.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.63e-4 · 27.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.16e-4 · 12.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.16e-4 · 12.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.69e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.69e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.17e-4 · 12.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.17e-4 · 12.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.97e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.97e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.23e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.23e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.59e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.59e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.94e-4 · 20.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.94e-4 · 20.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.70e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.70e-6 · 0.2% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=6.00h#2T=2.18h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 6.00h (freq 0.167) · concentrates 27.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 9.584e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-14.89×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -17.96400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.008
annualized -17.96
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -13.46σ ann 90% · Sortino -9.39 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-1615%-1271%-926%-581%-236%108%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)90.4%Ann. vol σ-1346.1%Sharpe (ann)-938.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.002% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0150.0160.0160.0160.0170.017t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 13:39:01 UTC
Snapshot age
1.5s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 13:39:03 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
5b17a0d09751988b275cd100ad88713495c427cb653fd71c355d91737ef14fb2 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.2¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,264.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,664.75HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.86

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.24K
bid $661 · ask $581
Depth within 10bp
$4.24K
bid $2.32K · ask $1.93K
Depth within 50bp
$34.99K
bid $17.94K · ask $17.05K
Mid price
0.016049
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.260
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.574
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-aztec/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0160575.52bp0.0160622FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.01606812.13bp0.0160704FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.01619490.66bp0.01629720PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0160414.92bp0.0160353FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.01601818.70bp0.0160058FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.01597546.01bp0.01580020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-1.427e-5
-0.00143% / hr
Annualised APR
-12.506%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
29.2d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
29.2d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE12.506%29.2d292.1d
SHORTPAY-12.506%29.2d292.1d

/api/asset/hl-aztec/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$9.56M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-aztec/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.184 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
9 / 15
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$3.81M
real volume
Sell weight
$5.54M
real volume
Net delta
$1.72M
sellers net
Imbalance
-18.44%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
18.4%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-aztec/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 2.83% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 22:00:00Z4.0h0.016884→0.0164072.825%5
#22026-06-14 11:00:00Z2.0h0.016315→0.0159202.421%3
#32026-06-13 17:00:00Z2.0h0.017073→0.0167122.114%3

/api/asset/hl-aztec/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
90.40%
σ per bar = 0.000394
Mean return (annualised)
-1216.85%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-13.46
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.52%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.02 over 3825 bars

/api/asset/hl-aztec/risk · same metrics, JSON