HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

BRETT

BRETT-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-brett · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 9.52%
realized vol (ann.)
108.73%
max drawdown
3.40%
sharpe
-56.91
ulcer index
1.99%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.72%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.07%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-3108.21
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.24%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.91
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1907.08
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.91
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
9.52%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 39%
  • 24h change +9.52%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 32.0bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-brett/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.6s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.007
24h Δ · live
9.52%
24h vol · live
$0.6M
BRETT · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0065 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0060, 0.0072] · R²=0.539▲ RISING +9.35%σ NORMAL 4.97%LAST 0.00650.00720.00690.00660.00630.0060μ = 0.0065max 0.0072min 0.0060dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.54μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=91,337,531 · μ=3653501.2 · σ=3209989.1 · CV=0.88BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1403,579,0117,158,02210,737,03214,316,043μ = 365350114,316,04350%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 14316043 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.6s
$mark $
$0.0065
$mid $
$0.0066
◉prev-day close
$0.006
Δ24h Δ %
+9.515%
$24h vol $
$609.93k
◐open interest $
$260.29k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0065 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0060, 0.0072] · R²=0.539▲ RISING +9.35%σ NORMAL 4.97%LAST 0.00650.00720.00690.00660.00630.0060μ = 0.0065max 0.0072min 0.0060dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.54μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0065 · 24h 9.52% · range $[0.0060, 0.0072]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 16 · down 9 (64% up) · range [0.0060, 0.0072] · σ=0.0003 · CV=0.05 · bodyµ=50%STRONG BULLISH +9.48%CLOSE 0.0065 vs OPEN 0.0060 (+9.48%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.00650.00720.00690.00660.00630.0060μ close = 0.0065O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.12%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.12%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.42%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.42%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.70%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.70%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+3.40%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+3.40%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.21%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.21%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.58%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.58%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+1.09%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+1.09%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+1.07%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+1.07%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.77%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.77%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+2.41%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+2.41%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.007 (+2.14%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.007 (+2.14%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (+0.41%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (+0.41%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (+1.19%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (+1.19%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (+2.18%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (+2.18%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (+2.19%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (+2.19%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (-0.89%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (-0.89%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (+3.91%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (+3.91%)-4.8%O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (-4.85%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (-4.85%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (+2.03%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (+2.03%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (-0.79%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (-0.79%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (-3.71%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (-3.71%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (+0.53%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (+0.53%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (-1.21%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (-1.21%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (-0.44%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (-0.44%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (+0.00%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (+0.00%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=91,337,531 · μ=3653501.2 · σ=3209989.1 · CV=0.88BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1403,579,0117,158,02210,737,03214,316,043μ = 3653501765,868 · 5.3% peak765,868 · 5.3% peak415,474 · 2.9% peak415,474 · 2.9% peak620,913 · 4.3% peak620,913 · 4.3% peak3,705,450 · 25.9% peak3,705,450 · 25.9% peak3,525,182 · 24.6% peak3,525,182 · 24.6% peak2,041,299 · 14.3% peak2,041,299 · 14.3% peak2,625,565 · 18.3% peak2,625,565 · 18.3% peak5,518,156 · 38.5% peak5,518,156 · 38.5% peak778,820 · 5.4% peak778,820 · 5.4% peak1,367,036 · 9.5% peak1,367,036 · 9.5% peak3,798,813 · 26.5% peak3,798,813 · 26.5% peak2,311,095 · 16.1% peak2,311,095 · 16.1% peak6,808,034 · 47.6% peak6,808,034 · 47.6% peak14,316,04314,316,043 · 100.0% peak14,316,043 · 100.0% peak5,045,386 · 35.2% peak5,045,386 · 35.2% peak7,246,977 · 50.6% peak7,246,977 · 50.6% peak7,519,358 · 52.5% peak7,519,358 · 52.5% peak7,028,220 · 49.1% peak7,028,220 · 49.1% peak4,392,647 · 30.7% peak4,392,647 · 30.7% peak2,749,860 · 19.2% peak2,749,860 · 19.2% peak2,454,465 · 17.1% peak2,454,465 · 17.1% peak1,407,222 · 9.8% peak1,407,222 · 9.8% peak4,433,561 · 31.0% peak4,433,561 · 31.0% peak458,961 · 3.2% peak458,961 · 3.2% peak3,126 · 0.0% peak3,126 · 0.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 91337531 · peak 14316043 · CV 0.88

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0033 · σ=0.0195 · skew=-0.76 (left-skewed) · kurt=0.80 (mesokurtic)54310 1-504.00bpbin -504.00bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -504.00bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-426.79bp 1-349.58bpbin -349.58bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -349.58bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-272.36bp-195.15bp 4-117.94bpbin -117.94bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -117.94bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 3-40.73bpbin -40.73bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -40.73bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 536.48bpbin 36.48bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 36.48bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 3113.69bpbin 113.69bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 113.69bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 4190.90bpbin 190.90bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 190.90bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 1268.11bpbin 268.11bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 268.11bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2345.32bpbin 345.32bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 345.32bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 14 · negative 9
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.92 · kurt=1.38 · near 19 / mid 5 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0065
Mid price
$0.0066
24h change
+9.52%
Mark–mid spread
7.63 bps
Prev-day close
$0.006

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0065$95% CI: [0.0064$, 0.0067$]
σ STD DEV0.0003$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 4.97%
med MEDIAN0.0066$Q₁ 0.0063$ · Q₃ 0.0068$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0012$ · IQR 0.0005$ (1.349σ→0.0004$)
min 0.0060$Q₁ 0.0063$med 0.0066$Q₃ 0.0068$max 0.0072$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.026approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.997mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.12
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.84
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.71
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=17.01
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.372569%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.182
σᵣ STD / h2.050535%σ²ᵣ = 4.205×10⁻⁴ · CV = 5.50×
σ ANNUALISED191.92%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 2.051%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)17.01excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)15.19strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.98left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.02leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 0.89
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+3263.70%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKEXTREME · 95% VaR 3.35%
VaR₉₅ (h)3.355%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)5.040%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)4.587%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN9.01%7h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−3.355%VaR₉₉−5.040%ES₉₅−4.587%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 7h duration
PEAK0.72$
−9.01% drawdown over 7h
0.65$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.37× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.50× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +9.90% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
55.0 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.395 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0072
Bollinger MA
$0.0067
Bollinger lower
$0.0061

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.266within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.190lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.007strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+5.187significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.007
H = 1.007STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.266k=2+0.190k=3+0.321k=4-0.108k=5+0.0300+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.19)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.19)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$609.93k
Open interest (USD)
$260.29k
Vol / OI (turnover)
2.34x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
8.861× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
4.430× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.215×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.84% · worst -5.43% · typical |Δ| 1.53%MILD BULLISH +8.94%BEST+3.84%03hWORST-5.43%04hTYPICAL |Δ|1.53%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+8.94%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.08% · Σ -0.63%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.33% · Σ +2.68%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.86% · Σ +6.90%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +8.94%+18.38%0.00%0.37% · 12h0.37% · 12h0.37%12h0.65% · 13h0.65% · 13h0.65%13h3.41% · 14h3.41% · 14h3.41%14h-0.18% · 15h-0.18% · 15h-0.18%15h-0.48% · 16h-0.48% · 16h-0.48%16h1.15% · 17h1.15% · 17h1.15%17h1.03% · 18h1.03% · 18h1.03%18h-0.82% · 19h-0.82% · 19h-0.82%19h2.31% · 20h2.31% · 20h2.31%20h2.12% · 21h2.12% · 21h2.12%21h0.38% · 22h0.38% · 22h0.38%22h1.22% · 23h1.22% · 23h1.22%23h2.08% · 00h2.08% · 00h2.08%00h2.21% · 01h2.21% · 01h2.21%01h-0.91% · 02h-0.91% · 02h-0.91%02h3.84% · 03h3.84% · 03h3.84%03h★ BEST-5.43% · 04h-5.43% · 04h-5.43%04h▼ WORST1.53% · 05h1.53% · 05h1.53%05h-0.22% · 06h-0.22% · 06h-0.22%06h-3.75% · 07h-3.75% · 07h-3.75%07h0.49% · 08h0.49% · 08h0.49%08h-1.13% · 09h-1.13% · 09h-1.13%09h-0.94% · 10h-0.94% · 10h-0.94%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+6.90%)RUNSup max 6 · down max 2BREADTH58% up · 38% down · 4% flat
14 up bars · 9 down · best 3.84% · worst -5.43% · typical |Δ| 1.526%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +8.81%FINAL+8.81%MAX DD-9.23%RECOVERYONGOING · 8 barsMAX RUN-UP+19.87%UNDERWATER12/25 (48%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0881 · peak 1.1987 · range [1.0000, 1.1987]1.19871.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1987UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -9.23% · significant0%-9.23%▼ TROUGH -9.23%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -9.23%bar 18-25 · 8 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.91%bar 16-16 · 1 bars · recovered#3 -0.82%bar 9-9 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -9.23%)RECOVERYongoing · 8 barsTIME UNDER WATER48% of session · 12/25 bars
final equity 1.0881 (8.81%) · max DD -9.23% · time-under-water 12/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +14 / −5 (74% positive) · μ=39.95 · σ=64.05PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -57.28 (-1.52σ vs μ)210.29105.140.00-105.14-210.29μ = 39.9554.9654.9663.1163.1141.1741.1739.2739.2763.7563.7583.1583.1583.9183.9192.0992.09210.29210.2988.9988.9983.9983.9914.3314.3315.7315.734.994.99-22.69-22.69-16.05-16.05-49.83-49.83-34.82-34.82-57.28-57.28v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -57.284 · range [-57.28, 210.29] · μ 39.949 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=180.4724 · σ=87.6852 · range [71.6402, 320.9196] · R²=0.344▲ RISING +8.02%σ EXTREME 48.59%LAST 141.2217320.9196258.5997196.2799133.960071.6402μ = 180.4724max 320.9196min 71.6402dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.34μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 141.22% · range [71.64%, 320.92%] · μ 180.47% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.350 · σ=0.198MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.554 (-1.03σ vs μ)0.6680.3340.000-0.334-0.668μ = -0.350-0.214-0.214-0.229-0.229-0.185-0.185-0.381-0.381-0.148-0.148-0.251-0.251-0.269-0.269-0.262-0.2620.1260.126-0.254-0.254-0.507-0.507-0.425-0.425-0.551-0.551-0.668-0.668-0.575-0.575-0.603-0.603-0.424-0.424-0.272-0.272-0.554-0.554v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.554 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
7.9612
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0187
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.3867
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2696
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.8240
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3791
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.0195
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9844
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6393
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0191
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.5469
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5845
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.834 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.07e-4 · top T=3.00h (24.0%) · top-3 cover 55.3%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.2e-38.8e-45.9e-42.9e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 7.37e-4 · 15.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 7.37e-4 · 15.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.84e-4 · 7.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.84e-4 · 7.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.53e-5 · 0.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.53e-5 · 0.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.19e-4 · 2.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.19e-4 · 2.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.32e-5 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.32e-5 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.10e-4 · 4.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.10e-4 · 4.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.49e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.49e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.17e-3 · 24.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.17e-3 · 24.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.50e-4 · 13.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.50e-4 · 13.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.04e-4 · 12.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.04e-4 · 12.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.88e-4 · 16.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.88e-4 · 16.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.37e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.37e-5 · 1.9% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=2.18h#3T=24.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 24.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.882e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.07%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.07%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-19.03×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -39.91400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.017
annualized -39.91
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.02%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -30.18σ ann 159% · Sortino -23.23 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3622%-2860%-2097%-1335%-572%190%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)158.6%Ann. vol σ-3018.4%Sharpe (ann)-2323.0%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0060.0070.0070.0070.0070.007t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:01:15 UTC
Snapshot age
3.6s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:01:18 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
1e1c73e44f08529eaa4fe68b999446ce7cb604144745b78d899da2a64274c5b1 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$584
bid $254 · ask $331
Depth within 10bp
$1.10K
bid $768 · ask $331
Depth within 50bp
$17.33K
bid $8.62K · ask $8.71K
Mid price
0.006557
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
7.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.014
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.071
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-brett/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0065638.91bp0.0065652FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00657627.68bp0.00659312FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.00660674.47bp0.00668220PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0065527.86bp0.0065483FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00653830.47bp0.00652114FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.00650876.13bp0.00645120PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-brett/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$91.34M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-brett/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.322 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
14 / 10
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$59.85M
real volume
Sell weight
$30.72M
real volume
Net delta
$29.13M
buyers net
Imbalance
32.16%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
32.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-brett/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 9.01% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z7.0h0.007195→0.0065479.006%8
#22026-06-14 02:00:00Z0ms0.006987→0.0069240.902%1
#32026-06-13 19:00:00Z0ms0.006354→0.0063020.818%1

/api/asset/hl-brett/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
158.65%
σ per bar = 0.000692
Mean return (annualised)
-4788.51%
μ per bar = -0.000009
Sharpe (rf=0)
-30.18
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
9.16%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 3112 bars

/api/asset/hl-brett/risk · same metrics, JSON