HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

BSV

BSV-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-bsv · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.31%
realized vol (ann.)
48.10%
max drawdown
1.33%
sharpe
-60.01
ulcer index
0.55%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.46%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-5256.91
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.21%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.88
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2393.85
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.88
upside/downside
roll spread
0.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.31%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 37%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark rich vs HL oracle by 9.3bps — fade/short bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-bsv/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$11.866
24h Δ · live
-0.31%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
BSV · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=11.9763 · σ=0.0457 · range [11.8740, 12.1040] · R²=0.000▼ FALLING -0.39%σ LOW 0.38%LAST 11.874012.104012.046511.989011.931511.8740μ = 11.9763max 12.1040min 11.8740dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $11.87
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=10,921 · μ=436.8 · σ=442.8 · CV=1.01BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1505591,1191,6782,237μ = 4372,237.3850%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 2237 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.3s
$mark $
$11.866
$mid $
$11.8655
◉prev-day close
$11.903
Δ24h Δ %
-0.311%
$24h vol $
$124.50k
◐open interest $
$529.79k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=11.9763 · σ=0.0457 · range [11.8740, 12.1040] · R²=0.000▼ FALLING -0.39%σ LOW 0.38%LAST 11.874012.104012.046511.989011.931511.8740μ = 11.9763max 12.1040min 11.8740dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $11.8660 · 24h -0.31% · range $[11.8740, 12.1040]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [11.8560, 12.1540] · σ=0.0457 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=44%CONSOLIDATINGCLOSE 11.8740 vs OPEN 11.8630 (+0.09%)&#9650; CLOSE 11.874012.154012.079512.005011.930511.8560μ close = 11.9763O11.863 H11.932 L11.863 C11.920 (+0.48%)O11.863 H11.932 L11.863 C11.920 (+0.48%)O11.922 H12.033 L11.919 C12.011 (+0.75%)O11.922 H12.033 L11.919 C12.011 (+0.75%)O12.003 H12.003 L11.882 C11.923 (-0.67%)O12.003 H12.003 L11.882 C11.923 (-0.67%)O11.932 H12.032 L11.921 C11.992 (+0.50%)O11.932 H12.032 L11.921 C11.992 (+0.50%)O11.981 H12.039 L11.941 C11.950 (-0.26%)O11.981 H12.039 L11.941 C11.950 (-0.26%)O11.931 H11.994 L11.894 C11.945 (+0.12%)O11.931 H11.994 L11.894 C11.945 (+0.12%)O11.944 H11.958 L11.925 C11.936 (-0.07%)O11.944 H11.958 L11.925 C11.936 (-0.07%)O11.961 H12.042 L11.920 C12.013 (+0.43%)O11.961 H12.042 L11.920 C12.013 (+0.43%)O11.998 H12.021 L11.970 C11.983 (-0.13%)O11.998 H12.021 L11.970 C11.983 (-0.13%)O11.964 H12.034 L11.964 C12.011 (+0.39%)O11.964 H12.034 L11.964 C12.011 (+0.39%)O12.011 H12.045 L11.982 C11.994 (-0.14%)O12.011 H12.045 L11.982 C11.994 (-0.14%)O11.993 H12.043 L11.952 C11.964 (-0.24%)O11.993 H12.043 L11.952 C11.964 (-0.24%)O11.966 H12.006 L11.953 C11.984 (+0.15%)O11.966 H12.006 L11.953 C11.984 (+0.15%)0.9%O11.992 H12.112 L11.984 C12.104 (+0.93%)O11.992 H12.112 L11.984 C12.104 (+0.93%)O12.106 H12.134 L11.990 C12.012 (-0.78%)O12.106 H12.134 L11.990 C12.012 (-0.78%)O12.012 H12.154 L11.963 C11.963 (-0.41%)O12.012 H12.154 L11.963 C11.963 (-0.41%)O11.949 H11.970 L11.908 C11.950 (+0.01%)O11.949 H11.970 L11.908 C11.950 (+0.01%)O11.945 H11.969 L11.918 C11.960 (+0.13%)O11.945 H11.969 L11.918 C11.960 (+0.13%)O11.955 H12.019 L11.944 C12.009 (+0.45%)O11.955 H12.019 L11.944 C12.009 (+0.45%)O11.997 H12.039 L11.958 C12.029 (+0.27%)O11.997 H12.039 L11.958 C12.029 (+0.27%)O12.025 H12.049 L11.998 C12.010 (-0.12%)O12.025 H12.049 L11.998 C12.010 (-0.12%)O11.980 H12.019 L11.962 C11.973 (-0.06%)O11.980 H12.019 L11.962 C11.973 (-0.06%)O11.973 H12.011 L11.930 C11.931 (-0.35%)O11.973 H12.011 L11.930 C11.931 (-0.35%)O11.933 H11.980 L11.881 C11.967 (+0.28%)O11.933 H11.980 L11.881 C11.967 (+0.28%)O11.967 H11.981 L11.856 C11.874 (-0.78%)O11.967 H11.981 L11.856 C11.874 (-0.78%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=10,921 · μ=436.8 · σ=442.8 · CV=1.01BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1505591,1191,6782,237μ = 437582.41 · 26.0% peak582.41 · 26.0% peak245.66 · 11.0% peak245.66 · 11.0% peak217.51 · 9.7% peak217.51 · 9.7% peak209.12 · 9.3% peak209.12 · 9.3% peak230.43 · 10.3% peak230.43 · 10.3% peak239.47 · 10.7% peak239.47 · 10.7% peak238.97 · 10.7% peak238.97 · 10.7% peak1,120.49 · 50.1% peak1,120.49 · 50.1% peak434.36 · 19.4% peak434.36 · 19.4% peak178.41 · 8.0% peak178.41 · 8.0% peak556.24 · 24.9% peak556.24 · 24.9% peak462.78 · 20.7% peak462.78 · 20.7% peak465.93 · 20.8% peak465.93 · 20.8% peak260.65 · 11.6% peak260.65 · 11.6% peak888.85 · 39.7% peak888.85 · 39.7% peak2,237.382,237.38 · 100.0% peak2,237.38 · 100.0% peak252.56 · 11.3% peak252.56 · 11.3% peak240.94 · 10.8% peak240.94 · 10.8% peak189.76 · 8.5% peak189.76 · 8.5% peak174.94 · 7.8% peak174.94 · 7.8% peak180.6 · 8.1% peak180.6 · 8.1% peak576.1 · 25.7% peak576.1 · 25.7% peak287.98 · 12.9% peak287.98 · 12.9% peak230.16 · 10.3% peak230.16 · 10.3% peak219.47 · 9.8% peak219.47 · 9.8% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 10921 · peak 2237 · CV 1.01

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0002 · σ=0.0045 · skew=0.36 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.69 (mesokurtic)54310 3-70.62bpbin -70.62bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -70.62bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak-55.81bp 3-41.01bpbin -41.01bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -41.01bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 3-26.20bpbin -26.20bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -26.20bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 5-11.40bpbin -11.40bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -11.40bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 13.41bpbin 3.41bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 3.41bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 318.21bpbin 18.21bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 18.21bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 133.02bpbin 33.02bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 33.02bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 147.82bpbin 47.82bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 47.82bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 262.62bpbin 62.62bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 62.62bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 177.43bpbin 77.43bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 77.43bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 192.23bpbin 92.23bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 92.23bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.30 · kurt=-0.47 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$11.866
Mid price
$11.8655
24h change
-0.31%
Mark–mid spread
0.42 bps
Prev-day close
$11.903

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN11.9763$95% CI: [11.9584$, 11.9942$]
σ STD DEV0.0457$σ² = 20.912×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.38%
med MEDIAN11.9730$Q₁ 11.9500$ · Q₃ 12.0100$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.2300$ · IQR 0.0600$ (1.349σ→0.0617$)
min 11.8740$Q₁ 11.9500$med 11.9730$Q₃ 12.0100$max 12.1040$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.357approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.833mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.07
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.03
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 5.03
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-3.20
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.016111%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.034
σᵣ STD / h0.471646%σ²ᵣ = 0.222×10⁻⁴ · CV = 29.28×
σ ANNUALISED44.14%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.472%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-3.20negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-3.62downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-74.27drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.32approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.29mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.13
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -74.27
EXPECTED EDGE-141.13%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.76%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.759%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.776%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.772%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.90%11h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.759%VaR₉₉−0.776%ES₉₅−0.772%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 11h duration
PEAK1210.40$
−1.90% drawdown over 11h
1187.40$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.02× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.02× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.94% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
43.9 · neutral
Bollinger %B
-0.069 · below lower band
Bollinger upper
$12.0743
Bollinger MA
$11.9806
Bollinger lower
$11.8869

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.36 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.359within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.029lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.644persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.008fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.644
H = 0.644PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.359k=2+0.029k=3-0.173k=4+0.085k=5-0.1170+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.01)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.36 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.65very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.01)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$124.50k
Open interest (USD)
$529.79k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.24x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-7.242× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-3.621× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-1.811×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.00% · worst -0.78% · typical |Δ| 0.38%MILD BEARISH -0.39%BEST+1.00%03hWORST-0.78%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.38%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.39%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.43%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.04%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.00% · Σ -0.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.39%+1.53%-0.39%0.76% · 15h0.76% · 15h0.76%15h-0.74% · 16h-0.74% · 16h-0.74%16h0.58% · 17h0.58% · 17h0.58%17h-0.35% · 18h-0.35% · 18h-0.35%18h-0.04% · 19h-0.04% · 19h-0.04%19h-0.08% · 20h-0.08% · 20h-0.08%20h0.64% · 21h0.64% · 21h0.64%21h-0.25% · 22h-0.25% · 22h-0.25%22h0.23% · 23h0.23% · 23h0.23%23h-0.14% · 00h-0.14% · 00h-0.14%00h-0.25% · 01h-0.25% · 01h-0.25%01h0.17% · 02h0.17% · 02h0.17%02h1.00% · 03h1.00% · 03h1.00%03h★ BEST-0.76% · 04h-0.76% · 04h-0.76%04h-0.41% · 05h-0.41% · 05h-0.41%05h-0.11% · 06h-0.11% · 06h-0.11%06h0.08% · 07h0.08% · 07h0.08%07h0.41% · 08h0.41% · 08h0.41%08h0.17% · 09h0.17% · 09h0.17%09h-0.16% · 10h-0.16% · 10h-0.16%10h-0.31% · 11h-0.31% · 11h-0.31%11h-0.35% · 12h-0.35% · 12h-0.35%12h0.30% · 13h0.30% · 13h0.30%13h-0.78% · 14h-0.78% · 14h-0.78%14h▼ WORSTTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.04%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 1.00% · worst -0.78% · typical |Δ| 0.378%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.41%)FINAL-0.41%MAX DD-1.91%RECOVERYONGOING · 11 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.53%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9959 · peak 1.0153 · range [0.9959, 1.0153]1.01530.9959break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0153UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.91% · moderate0%-1.91%▼ TROUGH -1.91%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -1.91%bar 15-25 · 11 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.74%bar 3-7 · 5 bars · recovered#3 -0.41%bar 9-13 · 5 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.91%)RECOVERYongoing · 11 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9959 (-0.41%) · max DD -1.91% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +12 / −7 (63% positive) · μ=0.95 · σ=16.02MIXED EDGELAST -45.30 (-2.89σ vs μ)45.3022.650.00-22.65-45.30μ = 0.953.723.720.490.4918.4818.486.816.8117.5217.527.077.0717.8617.8624.8124.816.416.41-10.34-10.34-9.50-9.50-0.87-0.875.245.24-22.87-22.87-0.91-0.915.055.05-8.35-8.352.812.81-45.30-45.30v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -45.299 · range [-45.30, 24.81] · μ 0.955 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=41.2602 · σ=11.8045 · range [24.1433, 58.0092] · R²=0.078▼ FALLING -30.74%σ EXTREME 28.61%LAST 36.437058.009249.542741.076332.609824.1433μ = 41.2602max 58.0092min 24.1433dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.08μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 36.44% · range [24.14%, 58.01%] · μ 41.26% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.164 · σ=0.376MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.452 (-0.77σ vs μ)0.7320.3660.000-0.366-0.732μ = -0.164-0.732-0.732-0.464-0.464-0.463-0.463-0.392-0.392-0.626-0.626-0.453-0.453-0.384-0.3840.0460.046-0.385-0.385-0.155-0.155-0.156-0.156-0.139-0.139-0.176-0.1760.4850.4850.2780.2780.3260.3260.5330.5330.1880.188-0.452-0.452v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.452 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.4966
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7801
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.0859
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4060
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.6431
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0053
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.5732
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5665
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1470
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4494
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.6661
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0957
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.493 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.73e-5 · top T=2.00h (44.1%) · top-3 cover 65.6%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.4e-41.1e-47.2e-53.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.45e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.45e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.10e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.10e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.03e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.03e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.09e-5 · 9.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.09e-5 · 9.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.56e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.56e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.14e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.14e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.17e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.17e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.67e-5 · 11.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.67e-5 · 11.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.17e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.17e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.38e-5 · 10.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.38e-5 · 10.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.58e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.58e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.45e-4 · 44.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.45e-4 · 44.1% energy50% by T=2.2h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 44.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.281e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-50.11×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -16.54400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.007
annualized -16.54
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -856% · APY -100% · Sharpe -20.71σ ann 41% · Sortino -10.33 · n 4999
-2486%-1979%-1472%-965%-457%50%-856.3%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)41.3%Ann. vol σ-2071.5%Sharpe (ann)-1032.6%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
11.38411.61411.84412.07412.30412.534t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:48:31 UTC
Snapshot age
2.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:48:33 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
229f43b323a6b6dc3fd49dac123e1047d36e8c73a87f8fcaead1fc8634c21603 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$432
bid $275 · ask $157
Depth within 10bp
$2.31K
bid $1.95K · ask $364
Depth within 50bp
$63.78K
bid $45.17K · ask $18.61K
Mid price
11.866500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
9.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.397
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.402
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-bsv/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K11.878510.12bp11.88607FILLED
BUY$10.00K11.895124.07bp11.903012FILLED
BUY$100.00K11.906333.54bp11.949020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K11.86035.25bp11.86002FILLED
SELL$10.00K11.846117.18bp11.83909FILLED
SELL$100.00K11.824735.21bp11.792020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-bsv/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$12.0000–$13.00008$3.24K
$11.0000–$12.0000★17$7.68K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-bsv/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.359 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$3.32K
real volume
Sell weight
$7.02K
real volume
Net delta
$3.71K
sellers net
Imbalance
-35.85%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
35.9%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-bsv/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.27% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h12.1040→11.95001.272%3
#22026-06-14 14:00:00Z0ms11.9730→11.87400.827%1
#32026-06-14 12:00:00Z0ms12.0290→11.93100.815%1

/api/asset/hl-bsv/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
41.34%
σ per bar = 0.000180
Mean return (annualised)
-856.29%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-20.71
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.61%
peak 12.04 → trough 11.85 over 2768 bars

/api/asset/hl-bsv/risk · same metrics, JSON