HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

SOL

SOL-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-sol · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.03%
realized vol (ann.)
28.99%
max drawdown
0.64%
sharpe
-0.27
ulcer index
0.20%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.15%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-38.04
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.52%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-14.90
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.03%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.14%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 30%
  • 24h change +1.03%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-sol/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$68.096
24h Δ · live
1.03%
24h vol · live
$132.2M
SOL · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=68.3804 · σ=0.3777 · range [67.8710, 69.2360] · R²=0.044▲ RISING +0.34%σ LOW 0.55%LAST 68.103069.236068.894868.553568.212267.8710μ = 68.3804max 69.2360min 67.8710dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $68.10
Funding direction · live
Long fee 47.9%Short fee 52.1%SHORT FEE52.1%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
47.9%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
52.1%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001158% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,932,167 · μ=77286.7 · σ=76603.1 · CV=0.99BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=11086,368172,737259,105345,473μ = 77287345,473.4550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 345473 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.0s
$mark $
$68.096
$mid $
$68.1025
◉prev-day close
$67.402
Δ24h Δ %
+1.030%
$24h vol $
$132.20M
◐open interest $
$268.39M
%funding (1h)
0.001158%
%funding (yr)
+10.14%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=68.3804 · σ=0.3777 · range [67.8710, 69.2360] · R²=0.044▲ RISING +0.34%σ LOW 0.55%LAST 68.103069.236068.894868.553568.212267.8710μ = 68.3804max 69.2360min 67.8710dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $68.0960 · 24h 1.03% · range $[67.8710, 69.2360]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [67.3570, 69.5320] · σ=0.3777 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=43%BULLISH +1.04%CLOSE 68.1030 vs OPEN 67.4020 (+1.04%)&#9650; CLOSE 68.103069.532068.988268.444567.900867.3570μ close = 68.3804O67.402 H67.935 L67.357 C67.871 (+0.70%)O67.402 H67.935 L67.357 C67.871 (+0.70%)O67.877 H68.037 L67.759 C67.942 (+0.10%)O67.877 H68.037 L67.759 C67.942 (+0.10%)O67.943 H68.271 L67.813 C67.999 (+0.08%)O67.943 H68.271 L67.813 C67.999 (+0.08%)O67.984 H68.400 L67.960 C68.236 (+0.37%)O67.984 H68.400 L67.960 C68.236 (+0.37%)O68.242 H68.696 L68.154 C68.576 (+0.49%)O68.242 H68.696 L68.154 C68.576 (+0.49%)O68.576 H68.598 L67.795 C68.081 (-0.72%)O68.576 H68.598 L67.795 C68.081 (-0.72%)O68.072 H68.246 L67.826 C67.968 (-0.15%)O68.072 H68.246 L67.826 C67.968 (-0.15%)O67.963 H68.360 L67.946 C68.096 (+0.20%)O67.963 H68.360 L67.946 C68.096 (+0.20%)O68.089 H68.381 L68.000 C68.201 (+0.16%)O68.089 H68.381 L68.000 C68.201 (+0.16%)O68.208 H68.249 L68.026 C68.243 (+0.05%)O68.208 H68.249 L68.026 C68.243 (+0.05%)1.5%O68.244 H69.532 L68.228 C69.236 (+1.45%)O68.244 H69.532 L68.228 C69.236 (+1.45%)O69.236 H69.245 L68.861 C68.883 (-0.51%)O69.236 H69.245 L68.861 C68.883 (-0.51%)O68.882 H69.148 L68.749 C68.887 (+0.01%)O68.882 H69.148 L68.749 C68.887 (+0.01%)O68.899 H68.899 L68.621 C68.729 (-0.25%)O68.899 H68.899 L68.621 C68.729 (-0.25%)O68.729 H69.062 L68.605 C68.811 (+0.12%)O68.729 H69.062 L68.605 C68.811 (+0.12%)O68.794 H69.062 L68.694 C68.805 (+0.02%)O68.794 H69.062 L68.694 C68.805 (+0.02%)O68.805 H69.046 L68.734 C68.973 (+0.24%)O68.805 H69.046 L68.734 C68.973 (+0.24%)O68.943 H68.989 L68.416 C68.489 (-0.66%)O68.943 H68.989 L68.416 C68.489 (-0.66%)O68.502 H68.554 L68.001 C68.242 (-0.38%)O68.502 H68.554 L68.001 C68.242 (-0.38%)O68.238 H68.471 L68.096 C68.175 (-0.09%)O68.238 H68.471 L68.096 C68.175 (-0.09%)O68.187 H68.222 L68.016 C68.184 (-0.00%)O68.187 H68.222 L68.016 C68.184 (-0.00%)O68.200 H68.319 L68.089 C68.194 (-0.01%)O68.200 H68.319 L68.089 C68.194 (-0.01%)O68.194 H68.484 L67.883 C68.463 (+0.39%)O68.194 H68.484 L67.883 C68.463 (+0.39%)O68.462 H68.493 L68.121 C68.124 (-0.49%)O68.462 H68.493 L68.121 C68.124 (-0.49%)O68.124 H68.124 L68.100 C68.103 (-0.03%)O68.124 H68.124 L68.100 C68.103 (-0.03%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,932,167 · μ=77286.7 · σ=76603.1 · CV=0.99BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=11086,368172,737259,105345,473μ = 7728742,277.9 · 12.2% peak42,277.9 · 12.2% peak41,696.08 · 12.1% peak41,696.08 · 12.1% peak84,551.73 · 24.5% peak84,551.73 · 24.5% peak46,875.5 · 13.6% peak46,875.5 · 13.6% peak103,358.1 · 29.9% peak103,358.1 · 29.9% peak269,474.91 · 78.0% peak269,474.91 · 78.0% peak41,906.55 · 12.1% peak41,906.55 · 12.1% peak96,827.96 · 28.0% peak96,827.96 · 28.0% peak39,796.76 · 11.5% peak39,796.76 · 11.5% peak30,542.79 · 8.8% peak30,542.79 · 8.8% peak345,473.45345,473.45 · 100.0% peak345,473.45 · 100.0% peak88,628.5 · 25.7% peak88,628.5 · 25.7% peak60,704.9 · 17.6% peak60,704.9 · 17.6% peak65,144.79 · 18.9% peak65,144.79 · 18.9% peak118,351.5 · 34.3% peak118,351.5 · 34.3% peak36,721.14 · 10.6% peak36,721.14 · 10.6% peak30,374.54 · 8.8% peak30,374.54 · 8.8% peak120,047.37 · 34.7% peak120,047.37 · 34.7% peak52,175.12 · 15.1% peak52,175.12 · 15.1% peak32,536.96 · 9.4% peak32,536.96 · 9.4% peak23,103.34 · 6.7% peak23,103.34 · 6.7% peak21,776.22 · 6.3% peak21,776.22 · 6.3% peak63,457 · 18.4% peak63,457 · 18.4% peak75,508.15 · 21.9% peak75,508.15 · 21.9% peak855.35 · 0.2% peak855.35 · 0.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1932167 · peak 345473 · CV 0.99

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0003 · σ=0.0040 · skew=1.05 (right-skewed) · kurt=2.80 (leptokurtic (fat tails))86420 2-63.41bpbin -63.41bp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin -63.41bp · n=2 · 25.0% peak 2-45.33bpbin -45.33bp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin -45.33bp · n=2 · 25.0% peak 2-27.26bpbin -27.26bp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin -27.26bp · n=2 · 25.0% peak 4-9.18bpbin -9.18bp · n=4 · 50.0% peakbin -9.18bp · n=4 · 50.0% peak 88.90bpbin 8.90bp · n=8 · 100.0% peakbin 8.90bp · n=8 · 100.0% peak 326.97bpbin 26.97bp · n=3 · 37.5% peakbin 26.97bp · n=3 · 37.5% peak 245.05bpbin 45.05bp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin 45.05bp · n=2 · 25.0% peak63.12bp81.20bp99.27bp117.35bp 1135.42bpbin 135.42bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 135.42bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 14 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.04 · kurt=2.91 · near 18 / mid 5 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.96 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$68.096
Mid price
$68.1025
24h change
+1.03%
Mark–mid spread
0.95 bps
Prev-day close
$67.402

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.62)
μ MEAN68.3804$95% CI: [68.2324$, 68.5285$]
σ STD DEV0.3777$σ² = 0.143 · CV = 0.55%
med MEDIAN68.2360$Q₁ 68.1030$ · Q₃ 68.7290$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.3650$ · IQR 0.6260$ (1.349σ→0.5095$)
min 67.8710$Q₁ 68.1030$med 68.2360$Q₃ 68.7290$max 69.2360$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.618right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.920mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.38
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.81
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.61
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=3.01
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.014218%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.032
σᵣ STD / h0.442820%σ²ᵣ = 0.196×10⁻⁴ · CV = 31.14×
σ ANNUALISED41.45%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.443%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)3.01excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)3.18strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)76.11exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.11right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂3.92leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 1.06
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 76.11
EXPECTED EDGE+124.55%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.68%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.675%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.720%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.714%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.64%14h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.675%VaR₉₉−0.720%ES₉₅−0.714%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 14h duration
PEAK6923.60$
−1.64% drawdown over 14h
6810.30$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.06× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.07× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.66% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
49.2 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.273 · within band
Bollinger upper
$69.1963
Bollinger MA
$68.4444
Bollinger lower
$67.6924

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.170within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.023lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.834strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.025fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.834
H = 0.834STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.170k=2-0.023k=3-0.114k=4-0.031k=5-0.2370+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.03)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.84very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.03)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$132.20M
Open interest (USD)
$268.39M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.49x
1h funding
0.001158%
Funding (annualised)
+10.14%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
7.251× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
3.625× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
1.813×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.44% · worst -0.72% · typical |Δ| 0.29%MILD BULLISH +0.34%BEST+1.44%21hWORST-0.72%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.29%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.34%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.13% · Σ -1.03%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.11% · Σ +0.91%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.06% · Σ +0.45%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.34%+1.99%0.00%0.10% · 12h0.10% · 12h0.10%12h0.08% · 13h0.08% · 13h0.08%13h0.35% · 14h0.35% · 14h0.35%14h0.50% · 15h0.50% · 15h0.50%15h-0.72% · 16h-0.72% · 16h-0.72%16h▼ WORST-0.17% · 17h-0.17% · 17h-0.17%17h0.19% · 18h0.19% · 18h0.19%18h0.15% · 19h0.15% · 19h0.15%19h0.06% · 20h0.06% · 20h0.06%20h1.44% · 21h1.44% · 21h1.44%21h★ BEST-0.51% · 22h-0.51% · 22h-0.51%22h0.01% · 23h0.01% · 23h0.01%23h-0.23% · 00h-0.23% · 00h-0.23%00h0.12% · 01h0.12% · 01h0.12%01h-0.01% · 02h-0.01% · 02h-0.01%02h0.24% · 03h0.24% · 03h0.24%03h-0.70% · 04h-0.70% · 04h-0.70%04h-0.36% · 05h-0.36% · 05h-0.36%05h-0.10% · 06h-0.10% · 06h-0.10%06h0.01% · 07h0.01% · 07h0.01%07h0.01% · 08h0.01% · 08h0.01%08h0.39% · 09h0.39% · 09h0.39%09h-0.50% · 10h-0.50% · 10h-0.50%10h-0.03% · 11h-0.03% · 11h-0.03%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.91%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH58% up · 42% down
14 up bars · 10 down · best 1.44% · worst -0.72% · typical |Δ| 0.292%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.32%FINAL+0.32%MAX DD-1.64%RECOVERYONGOING · 14 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.00%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0032 · peak 1.0200 · range [1.0000, 1.0200]1.02001.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0200UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.64% · moderate0%-1.64%▼ TROUGH -1.64%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.64%bar 12-25 · 14 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.89%bar 6-10 · 5 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.64%)RECOVERYongoing · 14 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 1.0032 (0.32%) · max DD -1.64% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=-6.03 · σ=26.47MIXED EDGELAST -11.17 (-0.19σ vs μ)42.8121.410.00-21.41-42.81μ = -6.035.155.158.088.0810.5310.530.390.3920.9220.9227.4827.4832.2532.2521.3521.3520.5420.5418.8518.85-22.01-22.01-26.56-26.56-42.17-42.17-36.42-36.42-42.81-42.81-41.45-41.45-30.95-30.95-26.51-26.51-11.17-11.17v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -11.169 · range [-42.81, 32.25] · μ -6.028 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=42.9911 · σ=14.8811 · range [25.2417, 66.8314] · R²=0.273▼ FALLING -34.15%σ EXTREME 34.61%LAST 26.652466.831456.433946.036535.639125.2417μ = 42.9911max 66.8314min 25.2417dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.27μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 26.65% · range [25.24%, 66.83%] · μ 42.99% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.183 · σ=0.205MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.442 (-1.26σ vs μ)0.4710.2360.000-0.236-0.471μ = -0.183-0.037-0.037-0.072-0.072-0.064-0.064-0.269-0.2690.0600.060-0.471-0.471-0.437-0.437-0.360-0.360-0.354-0.354-0.306-0.306-0.127-0.127-0.354-0.354-0.045-0.045-0.025-0.025-0.088-0.088-0.135-0.1350.3230.323-0.272-0.272-0.442-0.442v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.442 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
20.2944
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.0661
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6924
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.2603
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1911
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2866
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7744
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2304
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3037
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.6506
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5153
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.802 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.22e-5 · top T=2.00h (31.0%) · top-3 cover 77.2%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)8.3e-56.2e-54.1e-52.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.24e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.24e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.04e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.04e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.49e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.49e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.65e-5 · 21.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.65e-5 · 21.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.05e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.05e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.03e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.03e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.30e-6 · 3.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.30e-6 · 3.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.70e-5 · 25.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.70e-5 · 25.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.68e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.68e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.42e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.42e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.88e-6 · 3.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.88e-6 · 3.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.26e-5 · 31.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.26e-5 · 31.0% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 31.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.668e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.01%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.01%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-132.92×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -47.42400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.021
annualized -47.42
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -41.38σ ann 31% · Sortino -30.20 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-4966%-3965%-2964%-1964%-963%37%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)31.1%Ann. vol σ-4137.9%Sharpe (ann)-3020.1%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
65.20866.52967.85069.17270.49371.814t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:00:20 UTC
Snapshot age
1.0s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:00:22 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
80c8cfb6688cc9ab704b5c24e34668b4a9291bd19f56bce865025700026c34ec · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$60.02K
bid $24.95K · ask $35.07K
Depth within 5bp
$1.17M
bid $678.24K · ask $494.21K
Depth within 10bp
$1.17M
bid $678.24K · ask $494.21K
Depth within 50bp
$1.17M
bid $678.24K · ask $494.21K
Mid price
68.102500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
0.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.157
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.163
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-sol/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K68.10300.07bp68.10301FILLED
BUY$10.00K68.10300.07bp68.10301FILLED
BUY$100.00K68.11091.23bp68.123015FILLED
SELL$1.00K68.10180.10bp68.10002FILLED
SELL$10.00K68.10020.34bp68.10002FILLED
SELL$100.00K68.08951.91bp68.083012FILLED

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.158e-5
0.00116% / hr
Annualised APR
10.152%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
36.0d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
36.0d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.152%36.0d359.8d
SHORTRECEIVE10.152%36.0d359.8d

/api/asset/hl-sol/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$69.0000–$70.00001$345.47K
$68.0000–$69.0000★20$1.38M
$67.0000–$68.00004$210.43K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-sol/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.171 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
14 / 10
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.11M
real volume
Sell weight
$783.00K
real volume
Net delta
$323.89K
buyers net
Imbalance
17.14%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
17.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-sol/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 1.16% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h68.9730→68.17501.157%3
#22026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h68.5760→67.96800.887%3
#32026-06-13 22:00:00Z2.0h69.2360→68.72900.732%3

/api/asset/hl-sol/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
31.13%
σ per bar = 0.000136
Mean return (annualised)
-1288.18%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-41.38
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.64%
peak 69.01 → trough 67.88 over 3206 bars

/api/asset/hl-sol/risk · same metrics, JSON