HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

CC

CC-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-cc · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.00%
realized vol (ann.)
31.37%
max drawdown
0.72%
sharpe
-31.02
ulcer index
0.38%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.31%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2565.56
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.68%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.94
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1431.02
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.94
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.00%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-8.40%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 33%
  • 24h change -2.00%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 10.7bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-cc/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.159
24h Δ · live
-2.00%
24h vol · live
$0.5M
CC · live 24h price
n=24 · μ=0.1613 · σ=0.0014 · range [0.1592, 0.1635] · R²=0.243▼ FALLING -2.64%σ LOW 0.84%LAST 0.15920.16350.16240.16130.16020.1592μ = 0.1613max 0.1635min 0.1592dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.24μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
24 closes · last $0.16
Funding direction · live
Long fee 47.5%Short fee 52.5%SHORT FEE52.5%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.998 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
47.5%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
52.5%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.000959% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=24 · Σ=3,222,610 · μ=134275.4 · σ=141050.2 · CV=1.05BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=170125,205250,409375,614500,818μ = 134275500,81850%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 500818 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.3s
$mark $
$0.1591
$mid $
$0.1591
◉prev-day close
$0.1623
Δ24h Δ %
-1.996%
$24h vol $
$518.11k
◐open interest $
$5.60M
%funding (1h)
-0.000959%
%funding (yr)
-8.40%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=24 · μ=0.1613 · σ=0.0014 · range [0.1592, 0.1635] · R²=0.243▼ FALLING -2.64%σ LOW 0.84%LAST 0.15920.16350.16240.16130.16020.1592μ = 0.1613max 0.1635min 0.1592dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.24μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1591 · 24h -2.00% · range $[0.1592, 0.1635]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=24 · up 11 · down 13 (46% up) · range [0.1590, 0.1641] · σ=0.0014 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=42%BEARISH -1.95%CLOSE 0.1592 vs OPEN 0.1623 (-1.95%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.15920.16410.16290.16160.16030.1590μ close = 0.1613O0.162 H0.164 L0.162 C0.163 (+0.71%)O0.162 H0.164 L0.162 C0.163 (+0.71%)O0.164 H0.164 L0.163 C0.163 (-0.29%)O0.164 H0.164 L0.163 C0.163 (-0.29%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.162 C0.162 (-0.36%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.162 C0.162 (-0.36%)-1.5%O0.162 H0.162 L0.159 C0.160 (-1.47%)O0.162 H0.162 L0.159 C0.160 (-1.47%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.159 C0.160 (-0.11%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.159 C0.160 (-0.11%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.160 C0.160 (+0.26%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.160 C0.160 (+0.26%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.160 C0.160 (-0.19%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.160 C0.160 (-0.19%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.160 C0.161 (+0.69%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.160 C0.161 (+0.69%)O0.161 H0.163 L0.161 C0.162 (+0.71%)O0.161 H0.163 L0.161 C0.162 (+0.71%)O0.162 H0.163 L0.162 C0.163 (+0.25%)O0.162 H0.163 L0.162 C0.163 (+0.25%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.162 C0.163 (+0.02%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.162 C0.163 (+0.02%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.163 C0.163 (+0.01%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.163 C0.163 (+0.01%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.163 C0.163 (-0.07%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.163 C0.163 (-0.07%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.162 C0.163 (+0.09%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.162 C0.163 (+0.09%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.161 C0.162 (-0.98%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.161 C0.162 (-0.98%)O0.162 H0.162 L0.161 C0.162 (+0.00%)O0.162 H0.162 L0.161 C0.162 (+0.00%)O0.162 H0.162 L0.161 C0.161 (-0.37%)O0.162 H0.162 L0.161 C0.161 (-0.37%)O0.161 H0.162 L0.161 C0.161 (-0.17%)O0.161 H0.162 L0.161 C0.161 (-0.17%)O0.161 H0.161 L0.160 C0.160 (-0.27%)O0.161 H0.161 L0.160 C0.160 (-0.27%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.160 C0.161 (+0.12%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.160 C0.161 (+0.12%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.159 C0.160 (-0.32%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.159 C0.160 (-0.32%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.159 C0.160 (-0.11%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.159 C0.160 (-0.11%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.159 C0.160 (+0.22%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.159 C0.160 (+0.22%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.159 C0.159 (-0.42%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.159 C0.159 (-0.42%)#1#5#9#13#17#21up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(4) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
24 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=24 · Σ=3,222,610 · μ=134275.4 · σ=141050.2 · CV=1.05BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=170125,205250,409375,614500,818μ = 134275259,052 · 51.7% peak259,052 · 51.7% peak51,773 · 10.3% peak51,773 · 10.3% peak148,018 · 29.6% peak148,018 · 29.6% peak140,480 · 28.1% peak140,480 · 28.1% peak256,514 · 51.2% peak256,514 · 51.2% peak55,147 · 11.0% peak55,147 · 11.0% peak28,919 · 5.8% peak28,919 · 5.8% peak102,645 · 20.5% peak102,645 · 20.5% peak75,630 · 15.1% peak75,630 · 15.1% peak56,737 · 11.3% peak56,737 · 11.3% peak43,330 · 8.7% peak43,330 · 8.7% peak7,632 · 1.5% peak7,632 · 1.5% peak13,150 · 2.6% peak13,150 · 2.6% peak143,958 · 28.7% peak143,958 · 28.7% peak78,132 · 15.6% peak78,132 · 15.6% peak52,859 · 10.6% peak52,859 · 10.6% peak118,904 · 23.7% peak118,904 · 23.7% peak66,112 · 13.2% peak66,112 · 13.2% peak65,108 · 13.0% peak65,108 · 13.0% peak16,587 · 3.3% peak16,587 · 3.3% peak76,849 · 15.3% peak76,849 · 15.3% peak383,273 · 76.5% peak383,273 · 76.5% peak480,983 · 96.0% peak480,983 · 96.0% peak500,818500,818 · 100.0% peak500,818 · 100.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 3222610 · peak 500818 · CV 1.05

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=23 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0012 · σ=0.0044 · skew=-0.71 (left-skewed) · kurt=1.38 (leptokurtic (fat tails))65320 1-139.56bpbin -139.56bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -139.56bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak-120.98bp-102.41bp 1-83.83bpbin -83.83bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -83.83bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak-65.25bp 2-46.67bpbin -46.67bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -46.67bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 6-28.10bpbin -28.10bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -28.10bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 5-9.52bpbin -9.52bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin -9.52bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak 29.06bpbin 9.06bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 9.06bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 427.63bpbin 27.63bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 27.63bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak46.21bp 264.79bpbin 64.79bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 64.79bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=23 · positive 8 · negative 15
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=23 · skew=-0.76 · kurt=1.65 · near 19 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1591
Mid price
$0.1591
24h change
-2.00%
Mark–mid spread
0.63 bps
Prev-day close
$0.1623

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=24PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.57)
μ MEAN0.1613$95% CI: [0.1608$, 0.1619$]
σ STD DEV0.0014$σ² = 0.019×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.84%
med MEDIAN0.1611$Q₁ 0.1600$ · Q₃ 0.1627$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0043$ · IQR 0.0027$ (1.349σ→0.0018$)
min 0.1592$Q₁ 0.1600$med 0.1611$Q₃ 0.1627$max 0.1635$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.141approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.575platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.18
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.69
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.17
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-22.92
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.116438%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.245
σᵣ STD / h0.475462%σ²ᵣ = 0.226×10⁻⁴ · CV = 4.08×
σ ANNUALISED44.50%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.475%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-22.92negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-21.23downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.82left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.39leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.93
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1019.99%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.85%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.854%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.358%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.191%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.64%23h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.854%VaR₉₉−1.358%ES₉₅−1.191%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 23h duration
PEAK16.35$
−2.64% drawdown over 23h
15.92$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.39× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.59× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.71% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
31.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.114 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.1637
Bollinger MA
$0.1612
Bollinger lower
$0.1586

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.157within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.126lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.037strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.661significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.037
H = 1.037STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.157k=2+0.126k=3+0.202k=4-0.256k=5-0.2650+1−1+0.42−0.42+ momentum (ρ > +0.42)− reversal (ρ < −0.42)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.66)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.66)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$518.11k
Open interest (USD)
$5.60M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.09x
1h funding
-0.000959%
Funding (annualised)
-8.40%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=23 bars · best 0.74% · worst -1.49% · typical |Δ| 0.35%BEARISH SESSION -2.68%BEST+0.74%18hWORST-1.49%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.35%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.68%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.23% · Σ -1.83%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.39% · Σ -2.70%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.23% · Σ +1.85%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.68%+0.00%-2.68%-0.28% · 12h-0.28% · 12h-0.28%12h-0.36% · 13h-0.36% · 13h-0.36%13h-1.49% · 14h-1.49% · 14h-1.49%14h▼ WORST-0.08% · 15h-0.08% · 15h-0.08%15h0.34% · 16h0.34% · 16h0.34%16h-0.26% · 17h-0.26% · 17h-0.26%17h0.74% · 18h0.74% · 18h0.74%18h★ BEST0.69% · 19h0.69% · 19h0.69%19h0.19% · 20h0.19% · 20h0.19%20h0.30% · 21h0.30% · 21h0.30%21h-0.07% · 22h-0.07% · 22h-0.07%22h-0.07% · 23h-0.07% · 23h-0.07%23h0.05% · 00h0.05% · 00h0.05%00h-0.89% · 01h-0.89% · 01h-0.89%01h-0.01% · 02h-0.01% · 02h-0.01%02h-0.37% · 03h-0.37% · 03h-0.37%03h-0.16% · 04h-0.16% · 04h-0.16%04h-0.22% · 05h-0.22% · 05h-0.22%05h0.14% · 06h0.14% · 06h0.14%06h-0.37% · 07h-0.37% · 07h-0.37%07h-0.22% · 08h-0.22% · 08h-0.22%08h0.22% · 09h0.22% · 09h0.22%09h-0.50% · 10h-0.50% · 10h-0.50%10hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+1.85%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 5BREADTH35% up · 65% down
8 up bars · 15 down · best 0.74% · worst -1.49% · typical |Δ| 0.348%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=24 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.67%)FINAL-2.67%MAX DD-2.67%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER23/24 (96%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9733 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9733, 1.0000]1.00000.9733break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.67% · moderate0%-2.67%▼ TROUGH -2.67%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -2.67%bar 2-24 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.67%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 23/24 bars
final equity 0.9733 (-2.67%) · max DD -2.67% · time-under-water 23/24 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 5 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-15.78 · σ=63.51UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -43.88 (-0.44σ vs μ)100.6350.320.00-50.32-100.63μ = -15.78-51.07-51.07-50.66-50.66-16.45-16.4559.9559.9577.9877.9875.9775.97100.63100.6361.3061.3044.5844.58-28.80-28.80-47.73-47.73-61.98-61.98-67.30-67.30-89.83-89.83-58.74-58.74-87.71-87.71-82.75-82.75-33.37-33.37-43.88-43.88v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -43.879 · range [-89.83, 100.63] · μ -15.782 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=36.4858 · σ=16.7991 · range [15.4610, 78.9556] · R²=0.557▼ FALLING -53.74%σ EXTREME 46.04%LAST 29.493178.955663.082047.208331.334715.4610μ = 36.4858max 78.9556min 15.4610dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.56μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 29.49% · range [15.46%, 78.96%] · μ 36.49% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.237 · σ=0.254MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.514 (-1.09σ vs μ)0.6900.3450.000-0.345-0.690μ = -0.237-0.069-0.069-0.027-0.027-0.077-0.077-0.149-0.149-0.235-0.235-0.215-0.2150.2200.2200.1080.1080.1720.172-0.120-0.120-0.424-0.424-0.536-0.536-0.690-0.690-0.390-0.390-0.277-0.277-0.430-0.430-0.486-0.486-0.372-0.372-0.514-0.514v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.514 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
8.0141
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0182
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.4693
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2623
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.3866
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5873
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2055
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8372
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3134
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1587
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=2

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.9222
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3564
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.192 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=11 bins · noise floor μ=2.26e-5 · top T=11.50h (30.1%) · top-3 cover 68.0%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)7.5e-55.6e-53.7e-51.9e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 23.0 · power 3.63e-5 · 14.6% energyperiod 23.0 · power 3.63e-5 · 14.6% energyperiod 11.5 · power 7.48e-5 · 30.1% energyperiod 11.5 · power 7.48e-5 · 30.1% energyperiod 7.7 · power 1.07e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 7.7 · power 1.07e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 5.8 · power 8.20e-6 · 3.3% energyperiod 5.8 · power 8.20e-6 · 3.3% energyperiod 4.6 · power 1.55e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 4.6 · power 1.55e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 3.8 · power 1.01e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 3.8 · power 1.01e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 3.3 · power 1.45e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 3.3 · power 1.45e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.9 · power 5.81e-5 · 23.3% energyperiod 2.9 · power 5.81e-5 · 23.3% energyperiod 2.6 · power 2.14e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 2.6 · power 2.14e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 2.3 · power 4.73e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.3 · power 4.73e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.1 · power 8.29e-6 · 3.3% energyperiod 2.1 · power 8.29e-6 · 3.3% energy50% by T=5.8h#1 dominantT=11.50h#2T=2.88h#3T=23.00hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 11.50h (freq 0.087) · concentrates 30.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.487e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.01%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.01%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-196.60×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -62.84400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.027
annualized -62.84
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -59.97σ ann 31% · Sortino -35.64 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-7196%-5749%-4303%-2856%-1410%37%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)30.5%Ann. vol σ-5996.5%Sharpe (ann)-3564.1%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1530.1560.1590.1620.1660.169t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:01:03 UTC
Snapshot age
1.3s
History points
24 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:01:04 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
3963a55ca89f969dfa60febbf681f8023be14c13b4fe3e70a110e9364bd1825f · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$8.28K
bid $5.17K · ask $3.12K
Depth within 10bp
$20.78K
bid $15.93K · ask $4.85K
Depth within 50bp
$31.56K
bid $21.31K · ask $10.25K
Mid price
0.159070
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.172
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.022
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-cc/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1590901.26bp0.1590901FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.15929714.28bp0.15962014FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.15956331.00bp0.16015020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1590401.92bp0.1590303FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1589994.46bp0.1589709FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.1589189.54bp0.15862020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-9.591e-6
-0.00096% / hr
Annualised APR
-8.407%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
43.4d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
43.4d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE8.407%43.4d1.19y
SHORTPAY-8.407%43.4d1.19y

/api/asset/hl-cc/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 24 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★24$3.22M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-cc/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.342 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
8 / 15
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$975.02K
real volume
Sell weight
$1.99M
real volume
Net delta
$1.01M
sellers net
Imbalance
-34.20%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
34.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 24-record window./api/asset/hl-cc/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.18% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 13:00:00Z3.0h0.163480→0.1599202.178%4
#22026-06-14 01:00:00Z4.0h0.163030→0.1603401.650%5
#32026-06-14 08:00:00Z0ms0.160560→0.1596100.592%1

/api/asset/hl-cc/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
30.50%
σ per bar = 0.000133
Mean return (annualised)
-1828.96%
μ per bar = -0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
-59.97
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.97%
peak 0.16 → trough 0.16 over 4422 bars

/api/asset/hl-cc/risk · same metrics, JSON