HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

CELO

CELO-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-celo · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 6.51%
realized vol (ann.)
67.05%
max drawdown
1.61%
sharpe
4.02
ulcer index
0.83%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.66%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
326.33
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.50%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.01
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
179.14
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.01
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
6.51%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 32%
  • 24h change +6.51%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 6.9bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-celo/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.9s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.066
24h Δ · live
6.51%
24h vol · live
$0.5M
CELO · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0661 · σ=0.0015 · range [0.0620, 0.0682] · R²=0.219▲ RISING +7.23%σ NORMAL 2.29%LAST 0.06650.06820.06660.06510.06350.0620μ = 0.0661max 0.0682min 0.0620dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.22μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.07
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=7,849,565 · μ=313982.6 · σ=455351.7 · CV=1.45BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=100488,468976,9351,465,4031,953,870μ = 3139831,953,87050%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1953870 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.9s
$mark $
$0.0664
$mid $
$0.0664
◉prev-day close
$0.0624
Δ24h Δ %
+6.507%
$24h vol $
$517.57k
◐open interest $
$129.09k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0661 · σ=0.0015 · range [0.0620, 0.0682] · R²=0.219▲ RISING +7.23%σ NORMAL 2.29%LAST 0.06650.06820.06660.06510.06350.0620μ = 0.0661max 0.0682min 0.0620dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.22μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0664 · 24h 6.51% · range $[0.0620, 0.0682]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [0.0614, 0.0699] · σ=0.0015 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=51%BULLISH +8.24%CLOSE 0.0665 vs OPEN 0.0614 (+8.24%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.06650.06990.06780.06560.06350.0614μ close = 0.0661O0.061 H0.062 L0.061 C0.062 (+0.94%)O0.061 H0.062 L0.061 C0.062 (+0.94%)O0.062 H0.063 L0.062 C0.062 (+0.62%)O0.062 H0.063 L0.062 C0.062 (+0.62%)O0.063 H0.064 L0.063 C0.064 (+2.18%)O0.063 H0.064 L0.063 C0.064 (+2.18%)O0.064 H0.064 L0.064 C0.064 (+0.02%)O0.064 H0.064 L0.064 C0.064 (+0.02%)2.6%O0.064 H0.066 L0.064 C0.066 (+2.64%)O0.064 H0.066 L0.064 C0.066 (+2.64%)O0.066 H0.067 L0.066 C0.067 (+2.25%)O0.066 H0.067 L0.066 C0.067 (+2.25%)O0.067 H0.069 L0.067 C0.067 (+0.20%)O0.067 H0.069 L0.067 C0.067 (+0.20%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.066 C0.067 (+0.62%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.066 C0.067 (+0.62%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.067 C0.067 (-0.67%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.067 C0.067 (-0.67%)O0.067 H0.070 L0.066 C0.068 (+1.81%)O0.067 H0.070 L0.066 C0.068 (+1.81%)O0.068 H0.068 L0.067 C0.068 (-1.12%)O0.068 H0.068 L0.067 C0.068 (-1.12%)O0.067 H0.068 L0.067 C0.067 (-0.45%)O0.067 H0.068 L0.067 C0.067 (-0.45%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.067 C0.067 (-0.24%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.067 C0.067 (-0.24%)O0.067 H0.068 L0.067 C0.067 (+0.99%)O0.067 H0.068 L0.067 C0.067 (+0.99%)O0.067 H0.068 L0.066 C0.067 (-1.27%)O0.067 H0.068 L0.066 C0.067 (-1.27%)O0.066 H0.066 L0.066 C0.066 (-0.14%)O0.066 H0.066 L0.066 C0.066 (-0.14%)O0.066 H0.066 L0.066 C0.066 (-0.23%)O0.066 H0.066 L0.066 C0.066 (-0.23%)O0.066 H0.067 L0.066 C0.066 (+0.64%)O0.066 H0.067 L0.066 C0.066 (+0.64%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.066 C0.066 (-0.39%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.066 C0.066 (-0.39%)O0.066 H0.067 L0.066 C0.067 (+0.63%)O0.066 H0.067 L0.066 C0.067 (+0.63%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.066 C0.066 (-1.19%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.066 C0.066 (-1.19%)O0.066 H0.067 L0.066 C0.067 (+0.85%)O0.066 H0.067 L0.066 C0.067 (+0.85%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.067 C0.067 (-0.14%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.067 C0.067 (-0.14%)O0.066 H0.067 L0.066 C0.066 (-0.20%)O0.066 H0.067 L0.066 C0.066 (-0.20%)O0.066 H0.067 L0.066 C0.066 (+0.30%)O0.066 H0.067 L0.066 C0.066 (+0.30%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=7,849,565 · μ=313982.6 · σ=455351.7 · CV=1.45BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=100488,468976,9351,465,4031,953,870μ = 313983132,935 · 6.8% peak132,935 · 6.8% peak99,860 · 5.1% peak99,860 · 5.1% peak208,097 · 10.7% peak208,097 · 10.7% peak86,115 · 4.4% peak86,115 · 4.4% peak206,810 · 10.6% peak206,810 · 10.6% peak1,078,043 · 55.2% peak1,078,043 · 55.2% peak535,737 · 27.4% peak535,737 · 27.4% peak193,854 · 9.9% peak193,854 · 9.9% peak206,849 · 10.6% peak206,849 · 10.6% peak1,953,8701,953,870 · 100.0% peak1,953,870 · 100.0% peak1,302,664 · 66.7% peak1,302,664 · 66.7% peak197,681 · 10.1% peak197,681 · 10.1% peak76,911 · 3.9% peak76,911 · 3.9% peak198,303 · 10.1% peak198,303 · 10.1% peak85,662 · 4.4% peak85,662 · 4.4% peak150,848 · 7.7% peak150,848 · 7.7% peak98,290 · 5.0% peak98,290 · 5.0% peak171,200 · 8.8% peak171,200 · 8.8% peak64,953 · 3.3% peak64,953 · 3.3% peak108,623 · 5.6% peak108,623 · 5.6% peak120,257 · 6.2% peak120,257 · 6.2% peak216,328 · 11.1% peak216,328 · 11.1% peak100,829 · 5.2% peak100,829 · 5.2% peak92,915 · 4.8% peak92,915 · 4.8% peak161,931 · 8.3% peak161,931 · 8.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 7849565 · peak 1953870 · CV 1.45

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0030 · σ=0.0104 · skew=0.74 (right-skewed) · kurt=-0.42 (mesokurtic)65320 2-115.27bpbin -115.27bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -115.27bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 1-81.49bpbin -81.49bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -81.49bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 6-47.71bpbin -47.71bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -47.71bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 3-13.94bpbin -13.94bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -13.94bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 319.84bpbin 19.84bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 19.84bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 153.62bpbin 53.62bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 53.62bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 487.40bpbin 87.40bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 87.40bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak121.18bp154.96bp 1188.74bpbin 188.74bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 188.74bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 2222.52bpbin 222.52bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 222.52bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 1256.30bpbin 256.30bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 256.30bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.81 · kurt=-0.22 · near 18 / mid 6 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0664
Mid price
$0.0664
24h change
+6.51%
Mark–mid spread
3.46 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0624

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-1.42)
μ MEAN0.0661$95% CI: [0.0655$, 0.0667$]
σ STD DEV0.0015$σ² = 0.023×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.29%
med MEDIAN0.0665$Q₁ 0.0659$ · Q₃ 0.0670$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0062$ · IQR 0.0011$ (1.349σ→0.0020$)
min 0.0620$Q₁ 0.0659$med 0.0665$Q₃ 0.0670$max 0.0682$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.424left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.224leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.26
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.83
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.08
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=24.34
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.291001%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.260
σᵣ STD / h1.118833%σ²ᵣ = 1.252×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.84×
σ ANNUALISED104.72%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.119%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)24.34excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)40.87strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.86right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.02mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.68
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+2549.17%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.17%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.166%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.297%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.268%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.34%11h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.166%VaR₉₉−1.297%ES₉₅−1.268%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 11h duration
PEAK6.82$
−3.34% drawdown over 11h
6.59$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.09× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.11× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.45% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
65.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.371 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0679
Bollinger MA
$0.0668
Bollinger lower
$0.0656

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.023within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.165lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.641persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.537significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.641
H = 0.641PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.023k=2+0.165k=3+0.097k=4+0.312k=5+0.0090+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.54)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.30moderate · 1-step ahead inferrable|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.54)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$517.57k
Open interest (USD)
$129.09k
Vol / OI (turnover)
4.01x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.73% · worst -1.32% · typical |Δ| 0.84%MILD BULLISH +6.98%BEST+2.73%15hWORST-1.32%01hTYPICAL |Δ|0.84%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+6.98%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.19% · Σ -1.53%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.83% · Σ +6.62%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.24% · Σ +1.89%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +6.98%+9.51%0.00%0.75% · 12h0.75% · 12h0.75%12h2.34% · 13h2.34% · 13h2.34%13h-0.08% · 14h-0.08% · 14h-0.08%14h2.73% · 15h2.73% · 15h2.73%15h★ BEST2.36% · 16h2.36% · 16h2.36%16h-0.25% · 17h-0.25% · 17h-0.25%17h0.05% · 18h0.05% · 18h0.05%18h-0.39% · 19h-0.39% · 19h-0.39%19h1.99% · 20h1.99% · 20h1.99%20h-0.89% · 21h-0.89% · 21h-0.89%21h-0.56% · 22h-0.56% · 22h-0.56%22h-0.42% · 23h-0.42% · 23h-0.42%23h0.76% · 00h0.76% · 00h0.76%00h-1.32% · 01h-1.32% · 01h-1.32%01h▼ WORST-0.50% · 02h-0.50% · 02h-0.50%02h-0.40% · 03h-0.40% · 03h-0.40%03h0.75% · 04h0.75% · 04h0.75%04h-0.17% · 05h-0.17% · 05h-0.17%05h0.56% · 06h0.56% · 06h0.56%06h-1.21% · 07h-1.21% · 07h-1.21%07h0.95% · 08h0.95% · 08h0.95%08h0.04% · 09h0.04% · 09h0.04%09h-0.41% · 10h-0.41% · 10h-0.41%10h0.30% · 11h0.30% · 11h0.30%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+6.62%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 2.73% · worst -1.32% · typical |Δ| 0.841%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +7.07%FINAL+7.07%MAX DD-3.37%RECOVERYONGOING · 15 barsMAX RUN-UP+9.85%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0707 · peak 1.0985 · range [1.0000, 1.0985]1.09851.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0985UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.37% · moderate0%-3.37%▼ TROUGH -3.37%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -3.37%bar 11-25 · 15 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.59%bar 7-9 · 3 bars · recovered#3 -0.08%bar 4-4 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.37%)RECOVERYongoing · 15 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 1.0707 (7.07%) · max DD -3.37% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=7.56 · σ=42.08MIXED EDGELAST 4.35 (-0.08σ vs μ)92.1846.090.00-46.09-92.18μ = 7.5692.1892.1878.7878.7848.8148.8170.9370.9333.0733.07-0.74-0.74-3.27-3.277.057.05-5.54-5.54-65.52-65.52-56.91-56.91-21.67-21.67-17.00-17.00-22.10-22.10-20.77-20.779.039.0318.0918.09-5.12-5.124.354.35v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 4.353 · range [-65.52, 92.18] · μ 7.561 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=93.2362 · σ=26.3090 · range [62.5439, 133.5913] · R²=0.732▼ FALLING -42.37%σ EXTREME 28.22%LAST 71.7435133.5913115.829598.067680.305862.5439μ = 93.2362max 133.5913min 62.5439dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.73μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 71.74% · range [62.54%, 133.59%] · μ 93.24% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.341 · σ=0.258MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.650 (-1.20σ vs μ)0.6910.3460.000-0.346-0.691μ = -0.341-0.466-0.466-0.165-0.1650.1470.1470.1920.192-0.444-0.444-0.393-0.393-0.340-0.340-0.363-0.363-0.324-0.324-0.380-0.380-0.447-0.447-0.330-0.330-0.253-0.2530.0860.086-0.344-0.344-0.691-0.691-0.654-0.654-0.657-0.657-0.650-0.650v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.650 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
2.9786
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2255
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.1090
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5357
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.3209
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0153
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.6697
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0950
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (17 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3392
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1137
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.5151
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6065
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.157 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.27e-4 · top T=24.00h (22.7%) · top-3 cover 54.8%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)3.5e-42.6e-41.7e-48.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.45e-4 · 22.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.45e-4 · 22.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.83e-5 · 6.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.83e-5 · 6.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.39e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.39e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.97e-5 · 1.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.97e-5 · 1.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.92e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.92e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.04e-4 · 20.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.04e-4 · 20.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.56e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.56e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.56e-5 · 1.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.56e-5 · 1.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.13e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.13e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.84e-4 · 12.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.84e-4 · 12.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.60e-4 · 10.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.60e-4 · 10.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.64e-4 · 10.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.64e-4 · 10.8% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=24.00h#2T=4.00h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 24.00h (freq 0.042) · concentrates 22.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.521e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.005%/barparametric μ/σ² 6.02× · μ 0.001% · σ 0.14%
μ per barmean
0.001%
σ per barvol
0.14%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
6.02×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×μ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 1.50× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.001% · annualized Sharpe 17.01400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 1.50× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.007
annualized 17.01
μ per barafter L
0.002%
σ per barafter L
0.20%
VaR 95%5%
0.06%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.11%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.5%
0.92×0.97×1.03×1.09×1.14×1.20×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 19.56σ ann 325% · Sortino 49.45 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%1187%2373%3560%4747%5933%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)325.1%Ann. vol σ1956.1%Sharpe (ann)4944.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0580.0610.0630.0660.0690.072t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:34:45 UTC
Snapshot age
3.9s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:34:51 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
aa76b7fcea402d72ff7edf34d0c37ed9fe784018b40d9165a25a2f1c3294f57e · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$730
bid $365 · ask $365
Depth within 10bp
$2.32K
bid $839 · ask $1.48K
Depth within 50bp
$15.31K
bid $6.24K · ask $9.07K
Mid price
0.066397
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
9.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.039
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.084
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-celo/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0664376.09bp0.0664443FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.06660030.57bp0.06691812FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.067569176.48bp0.06867220PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0663566.11bp0.0663133FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.06609745.24bp0.06546910FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.064463291.21bp0.06224220PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-celo/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$7.85M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-celo/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.218 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$4.70M
real volume
Sell weight
$3.02M
real volume
Net delta
$1.68M
buyers net
Imbalance
21.76%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
21.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-celo/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.20% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-20 01:00:00Z2.0h0.067407→0.0659272.196%3
#22026-06-19 21:00:00Z2.0h0.068157→0.0668961.850%3
#32026-06-20 07:00:00Z0ms0.066687→0.0658821.207%1

/api/asset/hl-celo/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
325.09%
σ per bar = 0.001418
Mean return (annualised)
6359.02%
μ per bar = 0.000012
Sharpe (rf=0)
19.56
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.40%
peak 0.06 → trough 0.06 over 1028 bars

/api/asset/hl-celo/risk · same metrics, JSON