HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

CHIP

CHIP-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-chip · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 9.38%
realized vol (ann.)
244.24%
max drawdown
4.84%
sharpe
-8.77
ulcer index
2.59%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.22%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.11%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-826.95
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
4.55%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.99
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-470.64
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.99
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
9.38%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 32%
  • 24h change +9.38%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 9.4bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-chip/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH716ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.035
24h Δ · live
9.38%
24h vol · live
$2.1M
CHIP · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0340 · σ=0.0010 · range [0.0327, 0.0365] · R²=0.366▲ RISING +7.69%σ NORMAL 3.02%LAST 0.03520.03650.03550.03460.03360.0327μ = 0.0340max 0.0365min 0.0327dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.37μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.04
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=60,265,517 · μ=2410620.7 · σ=1802803.4 · CV=0.75RISING +49% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1501,496,3952,992,7904,489,1845,985,579μ = 24106215,985,57950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 5985579 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
716ms
$mark $
$0.0352
$mid $
$0.0352
◉prev-day close
$0.0322
Δ24h Δ %
+9.375%
$24h vol $
$2.06M
◐open interest $
$3.18M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0340 · σ=0.0010 · range [0.0327, 0.0365] · R²=0.366▲ RISING +7.69%σ NORMAL 3.02%LAST 0.03520.03650.03550.03460.03360.0327μ = 0.0340max 0.0365min 0.0327dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.37μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0352 · 24h 9.38% · range $[0.0327, 0.0365]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.0322, 0.0368] · σ=0.0010 · CV=0.03 · bodyµ=54%BULLISH +9.43%CLOSE 0.0352 vs OPEN 0.0322 (+9.43%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.03520.03680.03560.03450.03330.0322μ close = 0.0340O0.032 H0.033 L0.032 C0.033 (+1.62%)O0.032 H0.033 L0.032 C0.033 (+1.62%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.033 (+1.40%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.033 (+1.40%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.033 (-0.87%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.033 (-0.87%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.033 (+1.74%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.033 (+1.74%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (+2.19%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (+2.19%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.033 C0.034 (-0.71%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.033 C0.034 (-0.71%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.033 C0.033 (-1.13%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.033 C0.033 (-1.13%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (+0.43%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (+0.43%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.034 C0.034 (+0.50%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.034 C0.034 (+0.50%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.034 C0.034 (+1.56%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.034 C0.034 (+1.56%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (+0.26%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (+0.26%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (-1.99%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (-1.99%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (-0.52%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (-0.52%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (+1.53%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (+1.53%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (-1.61%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (-1.61%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.033 C0.033 (-2.20%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.033 C0.033 (-2.20%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.033 C0.033 (-0.25%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.033 C0.033 (-0.25%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.033 (+1.13%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.033 (+1.13%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.033 C0.033 (-0.26%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.033 C0.033 (-0.26%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (+2.33%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (+2.33%)6.4%O0.034 H0.036 L0.034 C0.036 (+6.43%)O0.034 H0.036 L0.034 C0.036 (+6.43%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.035 C0.036 (+1.02%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.035 C0.036 (+1.02%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.035 C0.036 (-2.41%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.035 C0.036 (-2.41%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.91%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.91%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.03%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.03%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=60,265,517 · μ=2410620.7 · σ=1802803.4 · CV=0.75RISING +49% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1501,496,3952,992,7904,489,1845,985,579μ = 24106211,589,667 · 26.6% peak1,589,667 · 26.6% peak1,461,726 · 24.4% peak1,461,726 · 24.4% peak5,087,817 · 85.0% peak5,087,817 · 85.0% peak856,081 · 14.3% peak856,081 · 14.3% peak5,713,061 · 95.4% peak5,713,061 · 95.4% peak3,164,972 · 52.9% peak3,164,972 · 52.9% peak969,786 · 16.2% peak969,786 · 16.2% peak1,043,012 · 17.4% peak1,043,012 · 17.4% peak657,957 · 11.0% peak657,957 · 11.0% peak1,131,189 · 18.9% peak1,131,189 · 18.9% peak1,508,252 · 25.2% peak1,508,252 · 25.2% peak1,021,385 · 17.1% peak1,021,385 · 17.1% peak1,784,544 · 29.8% peak1,784,544 · 29.8% peak2,696,091 · 45.0% peak2,696,091 · 45.0% peak1,834,886 · 30.7% peak1,834,886 · 30.7% peak1,830,667 · 30.6% peak1,830,667 · 30.6% peak1,011,087 · 16.9% peak1,011,087 · 16.9% peak1,457,936 · 24.4% peak1,457,936 · 24.4% peak1,692,817 · 28.3% peak1,692,817 · 28.3% peak3,027,628 · 50.6% peak3,027,628 · 50.6% peak5,985,5795,985,579 · 100.0% peak5,985,579 · 100.0% peak3,870,068 · 64.7% peak3,870,068 · 64.7% peak5,827,045 · 97.4% peak5,827,045 · 97.4% peak5,017,059 · 83.8% peak5,017,059 · 83.8% peak25,205 · 0.4% peak25,205 · 0.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 60265517 · peak 5985579 · CV 0.75

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0041 · σ=0.0178 · skew=1.00 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.78 (leptokurtic (fat tails))54310 2-224.41bpbin -224.41bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -224.41bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 3-149.58bpbin -149.58bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -149.58bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 3-74.75bpbin -74.75bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -74.75bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 50.09bpbin 0.09bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 0.09bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 374.92bpbin 74.92bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 74.92bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 4149.75bpbin 149.75bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 149.75bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 3224.58bpbin 224.58bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 224.58bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak299.41bp374.24bp449.08bp523.91bp 1598.74bpbin 598.74bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 598.74bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.15 · kurt=2.34 · near 21 / mid 2 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0352
Mid price
$0.0352
24h change
+9.38%
Mark–mid spread
2.27 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0322

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.90)
μ MEAN0.0340$95% CI: [0.0336$, 0.0344$]
σ STD DEV0.0010$σ² = 0.011×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.02%
med MEDIAN0.0338$Q₁ 0.0332$ · Q₃ 0.0343$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0038$ · IQR 0.0011$ (1.349σ→0.0014$)
min 0.0327$Q₁ 0.0332$med 0.0338$Q₃ 0.0343$max 0.0365$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.902right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.109mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.18
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.26
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.69
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=15.17
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.308619%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.162
σᵣ STD / h1.903833%σ²ᵣ = 3.625×10⁻⁴ · CV = 6.17×
σ ANNUALISED178.19%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.904%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)15.17excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)21.30strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.23right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂3.21leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.40
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+2703.51%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 2.12%
VaR₉₅ (h)2.124%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.518%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.400%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.60%6h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−2.124%VaR₉₉−2.518%ES₉₅−2.400%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 6h duration
PEAK3.44$
−4.60% drawdown over 6h
3.28$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.13× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.19× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.82% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
61.1 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.749 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0363
Bollinger MA
$0.0342
Bollinger lower
$0.0321

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.247within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.378lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.902strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+3.641significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.902
H = 0.902STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.247k=2-0.378k=3-0.095k=4-0.017k=5-0.2380+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.64)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.64)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$2.06M
Open interest (USD)
$3.18M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.65x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
8.515× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
4.257× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.129×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 6.36% · worst -2.62% · typical |Δ| 1.40%MILD BULLISH +7.41%BEST+6.36%07hWORST-2.62%09hTYPICAL |Δ|1.40%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+7.41%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.88% · Σ +7.07%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.23% · Σ +1.83%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.19% · Σ -1.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +7.41%+10.97%0.00%1.35% · 12h1.35% · 12h1.35%12h-0.90% · 13h-0.90% · 13h-0.90%13h1.92% · 14h1.92% · 14h1.92%14h2.13% · 15h2.13% · 15h2.13%15h-0.82% · 16h-0.82% · 16h-0.82%16h-1.40% · 17h-1.40% · 17h-1.40%17h0.43% · 18h0.43% · 18h0.43%18h0.65% · 19h0.65% · 19h0.65%19h1.49% · 20h1.49% · 20h1.49%20h0.27% · 21h0.27% · 21h0.27%21h-1.79% · 22h-1.79% · 22h-1.79%22h-0.34% · 23h-0.34% · 23h-0.34%23h1.45% · 00h1.45% · 00h1.45%00h-1.66% · 01h-1.66% · 01h-1.66%01h-2.18% · 02h-2.18% · 02h-2.18%02h-0.18% · 03h-0.18% · 03h-0.18%03h1.19% · 04h1.19% · 04h1.19%04h-0.32% · 05h-0.32% · 05h-0.32%05h2.42% · 06h2.42% · 06h2.42%06h6.36% · 07h6.36% · 07h6.36%07h★ BEST0.89% · 08h0.89% · 08h0.89%08h-2.62% · 09h-2.62% · 09h-2.62%09h▼ WORST-0.89% · 10h-0.89% · 10h-0.89%10h-0.05% · 11h-0.05% · 11h-0.05%11hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+7.07%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 6.36% · worst -2.62% · typical |Δ| 1.405%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +7.24%FINAL+7.24%MAX DD-4.66%RECOVERYONGOING · 9 barsMAX RUN-UP+11.17%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0724 · peak 1.1117 · range [1.0000, 1.1117]1.11171.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1117UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.66% · moderate0%-4.66%▼ TROUGH -4.66%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -4.66%bar 12-20 · 9 bars · recovered#2 -3.53%bar 23-25 · 3 bars · ONGOING#3 -2.20%bar 6-9 · 4 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.66%)RECOVERYongoing · 14 barsTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 1.0724 (7.24%) · max DD -4.66% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +12 / −7 (63% positive) · μ=9.95 · σ=30.22MIXED EDGELAST 30.60 (+0.68σ vs μ)65.1232.560.00-32.56-65.12μ = 9.9522.4222.4214.0314.0332.1732.1729.0929.099.529.52-4.13-4.1310.0810.0821.8621.86-6.21-6.21-46.88-46.88-53.89-53.89-18.44-18.44-18.22-18.22-6.71-6.7138.3738.3765.1265.1241.1841.1829.0629.0630.6030.60v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 30.605 · range [-53.89, 65.12] · μ 9.949 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=167.9041 · σ=68.3105 · range [97.8811, 293.5164] · R²=0.603▲ RISING +96.16%σ EXTREME 40.68%LAST 291.5998293.5164244.6076195.6988146.789997.8811μ = 167.9041max 293.5164min 97.8811dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.60μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 291.60% · range [97.88%, 293.52%] · μ 167.90% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +15 / −4 (79% positive) · μ=0.095 · σ=0.166MOMENTUM / PERSISTENCELAST 0.335 (+1.45σ vs μ)0.3780.1890.000-0.189-0.378μ = 0.095-0.039-0.0390.0590.0590.2750.2750.0390.0390.3780.3780.0900.0900.2750.2750.1350.135-0.232-0.232-0.132-0.132-0.111-0.1110.0070.0070.0120.0120.1650.1650.2090.2090.0020.0020.0770.0770.2540.2540.3350.335v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.335 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
16.3400
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0003
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.8395
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1640
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.6404
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4665
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.4174
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6764
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4179
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0694
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.5384
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5903
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.164 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.49e-4 · top T=4.00h (26.1%) · top-3 cover 60.7%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.1e-38.2e-45.5e-42.7e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.72e-4 · 4.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.72e-4 · 4.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.23e-4 · 10.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.23e-4 · 10.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.16e-4 · 19.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.16e-4 · 19.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.01e-4 · 14.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.01e-4 · 14.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.34e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.34e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.10e-3 · 26.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.10e-3 · 26.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.35e-4 · 15.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.35e-4 · 15.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.66e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.66e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.44e-4 · 3.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.44e-4 · 3.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.43e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.43e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.08e-5 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.08e-5 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.09e-5 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.09e-5 · 1.2% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=4.00h#2T=8.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 26.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.194e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.005%/barparametric μ/σ² 13.13× · μ 0.001% · σ 0.08%
μ per barmean
0.001%
σ per barvol
0.08%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
13.13×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 3.00× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.002% · annualized Sharpe 21.42400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 3.00× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.009
annualized 21.42
μ per barafter L
0.002%
σ per barafter L
0.25%
VaR 95%5%
0.38%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.58%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.6%
0.86×0.92×0.99×1.06×1.12×1.19×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 24.92σ ann 190% · Sortino 23.90 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%598%1196%1794%2392%2990%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)189.8%Ann. vol σ2491.8%Sharpe (ann)2390.0%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.003% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0310.0330.0340.0360.0370.038t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:00:20 UTC
Snapshot age
716ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:00:21 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
a8077b8283826691625547dbac0d615f92dd7f15c9f196f5e90700329932177e · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.20K
bid $1.47K · ask $727
Depth within 10bp
$14.47K
bid $4.99K · ask $9.48K
Depth within 50bp
$56.67K
bid $24.84K · ask $31.83K
Mid price
0.035206
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
5.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.122
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.364
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-chip/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0352183.55bp0.0352262FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0352306.96bp0.03524411FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.03524812.20bp0.03527320PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0351953.04bp0.0351892FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.03516611.19bp0.03514910FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.03514816.28bp0.03512520PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-chip/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$60.27M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-chip/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BALANCED · +0.002 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$29.41M
real volume
Sell weight
$29.27M
real volume
Net delta
$141.31K
buyers net
Imbalance
0.24%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
0.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-chip/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 4.60% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 22:00:00Z6.0h0.034423→0.0328404.599%7
#22026-06-14 09:00:00Z2.0h0.036490→0.0352143.497%3
#32026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.034204→0.0334552.190%3

/api/asset/hl-chip/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
189.75%
σ per bar = 0.000827
Mean return (annualised)
4728.31%
μ per bar = 0.000009
Sharpe (rf=0)
24.92
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.84%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.04 over 1197 bars

/api/asset/hl-chip/risk · same metrics, JSON