HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

DASH

DASH-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-dash · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.67%
realized vol (ann.)
63.00%
max drawdown
1.64%
sharpe
-8.77
ulcer index
0.70%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.57%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-793.30
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.47%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.99
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-375.06
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.99
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.67%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 30%
  • 24h change +1.67%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-dash/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.9s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$35.625
24h Δ · live
1.67%
24h vol · live
$0.5M
DASH · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=35.4843 · σ=0.3059 · range [34.9860, 36.3080] · R²=0.506▲ RISING +1.38%σ LOW 0.86%LAST 35.634036.308035.977535.647035.316534.9860μ = 35.4843max 36.3080min 34.9860dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.51μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $35.63
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=13,265 · μ=530.6 · σ=578.5 · CV=1.09BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1405701,1391,7092,278μ = 5312,278.3450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 2278 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.9s
$mark $
$35.625
$mid $
$35.6245
◉prev-day close
$35.041
Δ24h Δ %
+1.667%
$24h vol $
$472.55k
◐open interest $
$910.04k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=35.4843 · σ=0.3059 · range [34.9860, 36.3080] · R²=0.506▲ RISING +1.38%σ LOW 0.86%LAST 35.634036.308035.977535.647035.316534.9860μ = 35.4843max 36.3080min 34.9860dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.51μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $35.6250 · 24h 1.67% · range $[34.9860, 36.3080]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [34.8760, 36.6730] · σ=0.3059 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=42%BULLISH +1.69%CLOSE 35.6340 vs OPEN 35.0410 (+1.69%)&#9650; CLOSE 35.634036.673036.223835.774535.325234.8760μ close = 35.4843O35.041 H35.280 L34.982 C35.149 (+0.31%)O35.041 H35.280 L34.982 C35.149 (+0.31%)O35.078 H35.335 L35.078 C35.209 (+0.37%)O35.078 H35.335 L35.078 C35.209 (+0.37%)O35.166 H35.360 L35.149 C35.195 (+0.08%)O35.166 H35.360 L35.149 C35.195 (+0.08%)O35.195 H35.393 L35.125 C35.365 (+0.48%)O35.195 H35.393 L35.125 C35.365 (+0.48%)O35.308 H35.527 L35.245 C35.346 (+0.11%)O35.308 H35.527 L35.245 C35.346 (+0.11%)O35.331 H35.361 L34.876 C35.080 (-0.71%)O35.331 H35.361 L34.876 C35.080 (-0.71%)O35.089 H35.215 L34.937 C34.986 (-0.29%)O35.089 H35.215 L34.937 C34.986 (-0.29%)O34.961 H35.282 L34.943 C35.217 (+0.73%)O34.961 H35.282 L34.943 C35.217 (+0.73%)O35.238 H35.403 L35.086 C35.219 (-0.05%)O35.238 H35.403 L35.086 C35.219 (-0.05%)O35.161 H35.228 L35.001 C35.099 (-0.18%)O35.161 H35.228 L35.001 C35.099 (-0.18%)O35.144 H35.754 L35.021 C35.546 (+1.14%)O35.144 H35.754 L35.021 C35.546 (+1.14%)O35.550 H35.624 L35.354 C35.366 (-0.52%)O35.550 H35.624 L35.354 C35.366 (-0.52%)O35.364 H35.700 L35.307 C35.482 (+0.33%)O35.364 H35.700 L35.307 C35.482 (+0.33%)O35.494 H35.855 L35.439 C35.707 (+0.60%)O35.494 H35.855 L35.439 C35.707 (+0.60%)O35.705 H35.960 L35.567 C35.599 (-0.30%)O35.705 H35.960 L35.567 C35.599 (-0.30%)O35.570 H36.020 L35.506 C35.923 (+0.99%)O35.570 H36.020 L35.506 C35.923 (+0.99%)O35.939 H36.673 L35.939 C36.308 (+1.03%)O35.939 H36.673 L35.939 C36.308 (+1.03%)-1.4%O36.295 H36.347 L35.791 C35.791 (-1.39%)O36.295 H36.347 L35.791 C35.791 (-1.39%)O35.856 H35.912 L35.462 C35.619 (-0.66%)O35.856 H35.912 L35.462 C35.619 (-0.66%)O35.664 H35.844 L35.521 C35.572 (-0.26%)O35.664 H35.844 L35.521 C35.572 (-0.26%)O35.569 H35.757 L35.500 C35.677 (+0.30%)O35.569 H35.757 L35.500 C35.677 (+0.30%)O35.698 H35.952 L35.572 C35.697 (-0.00%)O35.698 H35.952 L35.572 C35.697 (-0.00%)O35.701 H35.763 L35.394 C35.674 (-0.08%)O35.701 H35.763 L35.394 C35.674 (-0.08%)O35.693 H36.024 L35.635 C35.647 (-0.13%)O35.693 H36.024 L35.635 C35.647 (-0.13%)O35.664 H35.666 L35.634 C35.634 (-0.08%)O35.664 H35.666 L35.634 C35.634 (-0.08%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=13,265 · μ=530.6 · σ=578.5 · CV=1.09BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1405701,1391,7092,278μ = 531351.02 · 15.4% peak351.02 · 15.4% peak386.87 · 17.0% peak386.87 · 17.0% peak383.79 · 16.8% peak383.79 · 16.8% peak321.88 · 14.1% peak321.88 · 14.1% peak104.3 · 4.6% peak104.3 · 4.6% peak645.1 · 28.3% peak645.1 · 28.3% peak96.95 · 4.3% peak96.95 · 4.3% peak50.82 · 2.2% peak50.82 · 2.2% peak481.84 · 21.1% peak481.84 · 21.1% peak82.25 · 3.6% peak82.25 · 3.6% peak570.28 · 25.0% peak570.28 · 25.0% peak163.66 · 7.2% peak163.66 · 7.2% peak822.93 · 36.1% peak822.93 · 36.1% peak2,278.342,278.34 · 100.0% peak2,278.34 · 100.0% peak604.06 · 26.5% peak604.06 · 26.5% peak188.83 · 8.3% peak188.83 · 8.3% peak2,010.99 · 88.3% peak2,010.99 · 88.3% peak598.88 · 26.3% peak598.88 · 26.3% peak1,524.86 · 66.9% peak1,524.86 · 66.9% peak354.99 · 15.6% peak354.99 · 15.6% peak305.09 · 13.4% peak305.09 · 13.4% peak361.47 · 15.9% peak361.47 · 15.9% peak232.66 · 10.2% peak232.66 · 10.2% peak340.07 · 14.9% peak340.07 · 14.9% peak2.62 · 0.1% peak2.62 · 0.1% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 13265 · peak 2278 · CV 1.09

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0009 · σ=0.0056 · skew=-0.06 (symmetric) · kurt=0.31 (mesokurtic)75420 1-132.17bpbin -132.17bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -132.17bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak-109.67bp-87.17bp 1-64.68bpbin -64.68bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -64.68bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 3-42.18bpbin -42.18bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin -42.18bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 3-19.68bpbin -19.68bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin -19.68bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 72.82bpbin 2.82bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin 2.82bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 325.31bpbin 25.31bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin 25.31bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 147.81bpbin 47.81bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 47.81bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 270.31bpbin 70.31bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin 70.31bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 192.80bpbin 92.80bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 92.80bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 2115.30bpbin 115.30bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin 115.30bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.09 · kurt=0.42 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$35.625
Mid price
$35.6245
24h change
+1.67%
Mark–mid spread
0.14 bps
Prev-day close
$35.041

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN35.4843$95% CI: [35.3644$, 35.6042$]
σ STD DEV0.3059$σ² = 0.094 · CV = 0.86%
med MEDIAN35.5460$Q₁ 35.2170$ · Q₃ 35.6740$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.3220$ · IQR 0.4570$ (1.349σ→0.4127$)
min 34.9860$Q₁ 35.2170$med 35.5460$Q₃ 35.6740$max 36.3080$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.483approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.023mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.20
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.90
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.32
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=8.95
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.057100%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.096
σᵣ STD / h0.597181%σ²ᵣ = 0.357×10⁻⁴ · CV = 10.46×
σ ANNUALISED55.89%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.597%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)8.95excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)10.40strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.09approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.82mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.16
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+500.20%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.72%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.718%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.278%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.095%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.03%3h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.718%VaR₉₉−1.278%ES₉₅−1.095%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 3h duration
PEAK3630.80$
−2.03% drawdown over 3h
3557.20$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmoderate fat tail|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.52× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 1.78× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.07% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
54.6 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.573 · within band
Bollinger upper
$36.1702
Bollinger MA
$35.5422
Bollinger lower
$34.9141

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.169within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.298lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.805strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+4.857significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.805
H = 0.805STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.169k=2-0.298k=3+0.233k=4-0.196k=5-0.0380+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.86)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.78very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.86)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$472.55k
Open interest (USD)
$910.04k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.52x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.27% · worst -1.43% · typical |Δ| 0.43%MILD BULLISH +1.37%BEST+1.27%21hWORST-1.43%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.43%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.37%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.55%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.05% · Σ +0.44%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.05% · Σ +0.38%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.37%+3.24%-0.46%0.17% · 12h0.17% · 12h0.17%12h-0.04% · 13h-0.04% · 13h-0.04%13h0.48% · 14h0.48% · 14h0.48%14h-0.05% · 15h-0.05% · 15h-0.05%15h-0.76% · 16h-0.76% · 16h-0.76%16h-0.27% · 17h-0.27% · 17h-0.27%17h0.66% · 18h0.66% · 18h0.66%18h0.01% · 19h0.01% · 19h0.01%19h-0.34% · 20h-0.34% · 20h-0.34%20h1.27% · 21h1.27% · 21h1.27%21h★ BEST-0.51% · 22h-0.51% · 22h-0.51%22h0.33% · 23h0.33% · 23h0.33%23h0.63% · 00h0.63% · 00h0.63%00h-0.30% · 01h-0.30% · 01h-0.30%01h0.91% · 02h0.91% · 02h0.91%02h1.07% · 03h1.07% · 03h1.07%03h-1.43% · 04h-1.43% · 04h-1.43%04h▼ WORST-0.48% · 05h-0.48% · 05h-0.48%05h-0.13% · 06h-0.13% · 06h-0.13%06h0.29% · 07h0.29% · 07h0.29%07h0.06% · 08h0.06% · 08h0.06%08h-0.06% · 09h-0.06% · 09h-0.06%09h-0.08% · 10h-0.08% · 10h-0.08%10h-0.04% · 11h-0.04% · 11h-0.04%11hTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 1.27% · worst -1.43% · typical |Δ| 0.432%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.34%FINAL+1.34%MAX DD-2.04%RECOVERYONGOING · 8 barsMAX RUN-UP+3.27%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0134 · peak 1.0327 · range [0.9953, 1.0327]1.03270.9953break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0327UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.04% · moderate0%-2.04%▼ TROUGH -2.04%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 5 total#1 -2.04%bar 18-25 · 8 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.07%bar 5-10 · 6 bars · recovered#3 -0.51%bar 12-13 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.04%)RECOVERYongoing · 8 barsTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 1.0134 (1.34%) · max DD -2.04% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +13 / −6 (68% positive) · μ=6.90 · σ=25.76PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 4.27 (-0.10σ vs μ)52.4526.230.00-26.23-52.45μ = 6.90-17.36-17.360.690.692.082.08-25.11-25.1111.8911.8918.3918.3933.2133.2132.7632.7624.2524.2552.4552.4551.5051.5019.9219.926.196.19-6.35-6.353.663.66-11.82-11.82-44.77-44.77-24.77-24.774.274.27v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 4.269 · range [-44.77, 52.45] · μ 6.900 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=60.6145 · σ=21.1389 · range [14.4008, 90.8669] · R²=0.006▼ FALLING -63.16%σ EXTREME 34.87%LAST 14.400890.866971.750352.633833.517314.4008μ = 60.6145max 90.8669min 14.4008dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 14.40% · range [14.40%, 90.87%] · μ 60.61% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.177 · σ=0.302CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.168 (+0.03σ vs μ)0.6570.3280.000-0.328-0.657μ = -0.1770.1800.1800.0180.0180.0380.0380.0070.007-0.152-0.152-0.625-0.625-0.637-0.637-0.582-0.582-0.657-0.657-0.535-0.535-0.066-0.066-0.302-0.302-0.076-0.076-0.019-0.0190.0430.043-0.286-0.2860.3000.3000.1500.150-0.168-0.168v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.168 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.7140
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6998
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.1501
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2913
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.8880
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3486
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4555
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6487
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6417
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0188
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.2218
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2218
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.628 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.49e-5 · top T=3.00h (30.2%) · top-3 cover 57.3%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.3e-49.5e-56.3e-53.2e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.39e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.39e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.52e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.52e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.40e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.40e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.80e-5 · 13.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.80e-5 · 13.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.26e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.26e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.69e-5 · 11.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.69e-5 · 11.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.92e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.92e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.27e-4 · 30.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.27e-4 · 30.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.56e-5 · 13.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.56e-5 · 13.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.52e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.52e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.38e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.38e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.76e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.76e-5 · 4.2% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=6.00h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 30.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.189e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-20.98×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -19.03400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.008
annualized -19.03
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -14.61σ ann 70% · Sortino -12.12 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-1753%-1385%-1018%-651%-284%84%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)69.6%Ann. vol σ-1460.6%Sharpe (ann)-1212.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
33.99134.82735.66236.49737.33238.168t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:00:20 UTC
Snapshot age
2.9s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:00:23 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
6927f9aca70f439e410997f1acdea172c18656cc5950115dd0bef1f024c68e4b · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.23K
bid $668 · ask $562
Depth within 10bp
$5.30K
bid $668 · ask $4.63K
Depth within 50bp
$42.64K
bid $19.25K · ask $23.39K
Mid price
35.622500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
8.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.095
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.116
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-dash/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K35.63994.87bp35.64104FILLED
BUY$10.00K35.65799.93bp35.674014FILLED
BUY$100.00K35.673814.41bp35.699020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K35.59866.71bp35.57303FILLED
SELL$10.00K35.560117.51bp35.542014FILLED
SELL$100.00K35.548220.86bp35.517020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-dash/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$36.0000–$37.00001$2.01K
$35.0000–$36.0000★23$11.16K
$34.0000–$35.00001$97

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-dash/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.205 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$7.78K
real volume
Sell weight
$5.13K
real volume
Net delta
$2.65K
buyers net
Imbalance
20.48%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
20.5%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-dash/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 2.03% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h36.3080→35.57202.027%3
#22026-06-13 16:00:00Z1.0h35.3650→34.98601.072%2
#32026-06-13 22:00:00Z0ms35.5460→35.36600.506%1

/api/asset/hl-dash/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
69.61%
σ per bar = 0.000304
Mean return (annualised)
-1016.76%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-14.61
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.52%
peak 36.68 → trough 35.39 over 3479 bars

/api/asset/hl-dash/risk · same metrics, JSON