HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

DOT

DOT-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-dot · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.24%
realized vol (ann.)
37.74%
max drawdown
0.50%
sharpe
16.07
ulcer index
0.18%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.14%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
3355.53
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.43%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.03
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
1422.26
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.03
upside/downside
roll spread
0.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.24%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-4.27%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 32%
  • 24h change -1.24%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 7.7bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-dot/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.968
24h Δ · live
-1.24%
24h vol · live
$0.9M
DOT · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.9774 · σ=0.0077 · range [0.9657, 0.9917] · R²=0.827▼ FALLING -1.75%σ LOW 0.78%LAST 0.96690.99170.98520.97870.97220.9657μ = 0.9774max 0.9917min 0.9657dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.83μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.97
Funding direction · live
Long fee 45.3%Short fee 54.7%SHORT FEE54.7%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.994 / 1.00 bits (99%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
45.3%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
54.7%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.000487% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=905,679 · μ=36227.2 · σ=37974.7 · CV=1.05BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=11035,45370,905106,358141,810μ = 36227141,81050%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 141810 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.0s
$mark $
$0.9675
$mid $
$0.9674
◉prev-day close
$0.9797
Δ24h Δ %
-1.240%
$24h vol $
$881.79k
◐open interest $
$4.04M
%funding (1h)
-0.000487%
%funding (yr)
-4.27%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.9774 · σ=0.0077 · range [0.9657, 0.9917] · R²=0.827▼ FALLING -1.75%σ LOW 0.78%LAST 0.96690.99170.98520.97870.97220.9657μ = 0.9774max 0.9917min 0.9657dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.83μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.9675 · 24h -1.24% · range $[0.9657, 0.9917]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.9631, 0.9948] · σ=0.0077 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=42%BEARISH -1.30%CLOSE 0.9669 vs OPEN 0.9797 (-1.30%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.96690.99480.98690.97890.97100.9631μ close = 0.9774O0.980 H0.984 L0.978 C0.984 (+0.46%)O0.980 H0.984 L0.978 C0.984 (+0.46%)O0.984 H0.994 L0.984 C0.992 (+0.76%)O0.984 H0.994 L0.984 C0.992 (+0.76%)O0.990 H0.991 L0.983 C0.985 (-0.43%)O0.990 H0.991 L0.983 C0.985 (-0.43%)O0.986 H0.988 L0.982 C0.987 (+0.14%)O0.986 H0.988 L0.982 C0.987 (+0.14%)O0.988 H0.995 L0.987 C0.991 (+0.27%)O0.988 H0.995 L0.987 C0.991 (+0.27%)O0.991 H0.991 L0.979 C0.985 (-0.66%)O0.991 H0.991 L0.979 C0.985 (-0.66%)O0.985 H0.988 L0.978 C0.980 (-0.50%)O0.985 H0.988 L0.978 C0.980 (-0.50%)O0.981 H0.983 L0.976 C0.977 (-0.41%)O0.981 H0.983 L0.976 C0.977 (-0.41%)O0.978 H0.982 L0.975 C0.979 (+0.11%)O0.978 H0.982 L0.975 C0.979 (+0.11%)O0.977 H0.980 L0.976 C0.979 (+0.12%)O0.977 H0.980 L0.976 C0.979 (+0.12%)O0.979 H0.986 L0.975 C0.981 (+0.24%)O0.979 H0.986 L0.975 C0.981 (+0.24%)O0.981 H0.984 L0.979 C0.980 (-0.11%)O0.981 H0.984 L0.979 C0.980 (-0.11%)O0.980 H0.982 L0.978 C0.979 (-0.09%)O0.980 H0.982 L0.978 C0.979 (-0.09%)O0.980 H0.980 L0.976 C0.978 (-0.21%)O0.980 H0.980 L0.976 C0.978 (-0.21%)O0.978 H0.983 L0.977 C0.979 (+0.16%)O0.978 H0.983 L0.977 C0.979 (+0.16%)O0.979 H0.984 L0.976 C0.977 (-0.23%)O0.979 H0.984 L0.976 C0.977 (-0.23%)O0.977 H0.978 L0.974 C0.978 (+0.07%)O0.977 H0.978 L0.974 C0.978 (+0.07%)-0.9%O0.978 H0.978 L0.966 C0.969 (-0.92%)O0.978 H0.978 L0.966 C0.969 (-0.92%)O0.969 H0.971 L0.964 C0.969 (-0.01%)O0.969 H0.971 L0.964 C0.969 (-0.01%)O0.969 H0.973 L0.965 C0.966 (-0.32%)O0.969 H0.973 L0.965 C0.966 (-0.32%)O0.965 H0.968 L0.963 C0.966 (+0.07%)O0.965 H0.968 L0.963 C0.966 (+0.07%)O0.966 H0.970 L0.965 C0.969 (+0.29%)O0.966 H0.970 L0.965 C0.969 (+0.29%)O0.969 H0.972 L0.965 C0.972 (+0.30%)O0.969 H0.972 L0.965 C0.972 (+0.30%)O0.971 H0.972 L0.968 C0.968 (-0.34%)O0.971 H0.972 L0.968 C0.968 (-0.34%)O0.968 H0.968 L0.967 C0.967 (-0.10%)O0.968 H0.968 L0.967 C0.967 (-0.10%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=905,679 · μ=36227.2 · σ=37974.7 · CV=1.05BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=11035,45370,905106,358141,810μ = 36227101,661.7 · 71.7% peak101,661.7 · 71.7% peak54,780.8 · 38.6% peak54,780.8 · 38.6% peak12,676.7 · 8.9% peak12,676.7 · 8.9% peak14,781.1 · 10.4% peak14,781.1 · 10.4% peak16,918.7 · 11.9% peak16,918.7 · 11.9% peak136,800.7 · 96.5% peak136,800.7 · 96.5% peak23,414.9 · 16.5% peak23,414.9 · 16.5% peak20,602.4 · 14.5% peak20,602.4 · 14.5% peak17,107 · 12.1% peak17,107 · 12.1% peak14,399.7 · 10.2% peak14,399.7 · 10.2% peak141,810141,810 · 100.0% peak141,810 · 100.0% peak8,219.9 · 5.8% peak8,219.9 · 5.8% peak8,860.8 · 6.2% peak8,860.8 · 6.2% peak15,423.4 · 10.9% peak15,423.4 · 10.9% peak21,721 · 15.3% peak21,721 · 15.3% peak16,650.8 · 11.7% peak16,650.8 · 11.7% peak22,929.4 · 16.2% peak22,929.4 · 16.2% peak49,433.3 · 34.9% peak49,433.3 · 34.9% peak27,236.9 · 19.2% peak27,236.9 · 19.2% peak30,379.9 · 21.4% peak30,379.9 · 21.4% peak74,586.5 · 52.6% peak74,586.5 · 52.6% peak30,755.4 · 21.7% peak30,755.4 · 21.7% peak22,789.8 · 16.1% peak22,789.8 · 16.1% peak17,559.6 · 12.4% peak17,559.6 · 12.4% peak4,179 · 2.9% peak4,179 · 2.9% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 905679 · peak 141810 · CV 1.05

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0008 · σ=0.0035 · skew=-0.20 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.12 (mesokurtic)54310 1-82.57bpbin -82.57bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -82.57bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2-68.75bpbin -68.75bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -68.75bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak-54.92bp 2-41.10bpbin -41.10bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -41.10bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2-27.27bpbin -27.27bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -27.27bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 5-13.45bpbin -13.45bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -13.45bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 40.38bpbin 0.38bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 0.38bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 314.21bpbin 14.21bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 14.21bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 328.03bpbin 28.03bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 28.03bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 141.86bpbin 41.86bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 41.86bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak55.68bp 169.51bpbin 69.51bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 69.51bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 15
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.14 · kurt=0.03 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.9675
Mid price
$0.9674
24h change
-1.24%
Mark–mid spread
0.83 bps
Prev-day close
$0.9797

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.05)
μ MEAN0.9774$95% CI: [0.9744$, 0.9804$]
σ STD DEV0.0077$σ² = 0.586×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.78%
med MEDIAN0.9786$Q₁ 0.9690$ · Q₃ 0.9810$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0260$ · IQR 0.0120$ (1.349σ→0.0103$)
min 0.9657$Q₁ 0.9690$med 0.9786$Q₃ 0.9810$max 0.9917$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.036approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.045platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.15
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.86
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.39
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-18.50
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.073550%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.198
σᵣ STD / h0.372162%σ²ᵣ = 0.139×10⁻⁴ · CV = 5.06×
σ ANNUALISED34.83%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.372%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-18.50negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-17.75downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.15approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.34mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.96
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-644.30%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.64%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.636%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.835%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.766%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.62%19h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.636%VaR₉₉−0.835%ES₉₅−0.766%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 19h duration
PEAK99.17$
−2.62% drawdown over 19h
96.57$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.20× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.31× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.69% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
36.9 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.170 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.9867
Bollinger MA
$0.9748
Bollinger lower
$0.9629

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.21 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.213within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.019lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.845strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-10.485significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.845
H = 0.845STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.213k=2-0.019k=3-0.065k=4-0.120k=5-0.2020+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.49)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.21 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.90very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.49)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$881.79k
Open interest (USD)
$4.04M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.22x
1h funding
-0.000487%
Funding (annualised)
-4.27%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.76% · worst -0.89% · typical |Δ| 0.29%BEARISH SESSION -1.77%BEST+0.76%12hWORST-0.89%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.29%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.77%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.17% · Σ -1.38%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.10% · Σ +0.81%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.15% · Σ -1.20%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.77%+0.76%-1.89%0.76% · 12h0.76% · 12h0.76%12h★ BEST-0.64% · 13h-0.64% · 13h-0.64%13h0.20% · 14h0.20% · 14h0.20%14h0.35% · 15h0.35% · 15h0.35%15h-0.63% · 16h-0.63% · 16h-0.63%16h-0.45% · 17h-0.45% · 17h-0.45%17h-0.31% · 18h-0.31% · 18h-0.31%18h0.17% · 19h0.17% · 19h0.17%19h-0.03% · 20h-0.03% · 20h-0.03%20h0.24% · 21h0.24% · 21h0.24%21h-0.09% · 22h-0.09% · 22h-0.09%22h-0.10% · 23h-0.10% · 23h-0.10%23h-0.16% · 00h-0.16% · 00h-0.16%00h0.16% · 01h0.16% · 01h0.16%01h-0.20% · 02h-0.20% · 02h-0.20%02h0.05% · 03h0.05% · 03h0.05%03h-0.89% · 04h-0.89% · 04h-0.89%04h▼ WORST-0.00% · 05h-0.00% · 05h-0.00%05h-0.33% · 06h-0.33% · 06h-0.33%06h-0.00% · 07h-0.00% · 07h-0.00%07h0.31% · 08h0.31% · 08h0.31%08h0.31% · 09h0.31% · 09h0.31%09h-0.38% · 10h-0.38% · 10h-0.38%10h-0.12% · 11h-0.12% · 11h-0.12%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.81%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH38% up · 63% down
9 up bars · 15 down · best 0.76% · worst -0.89% · typical |Δ| 0.288%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.77%)FINAL-1.77%MAX DD-2.63%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.76%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9823 · peak 1.0076 · range [0.9811, 1.0076]1.00760.9811break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0076UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.63% · moderate0%-2.63%▼ TROUGH -2.63%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -2.63%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.63%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9823 (-1.77%) · max DD -2.63% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-27.50 · σ=19.80UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -10.75 (+0.85σ vs μ)60.2330.110.00-30.11-60.23μ = -27.50-10.53-10.53-53.97-53.97-25.63-25.63-37.10-37.10-44.58-44.58-26.79-26.79-8.92-8.923.823.822.492.49-12.57-12.57-38.84-38.84-48.24-48.24-43.21-43.21-49.72-49.72-60.23-60.23-32.22-32.22-20.72-20.72-4.80-4.80-10.75-10.75v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -10.751 · range [-60.23, 3.82] · μ -27.501 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=30.6533 · σ=11.1192 · range [12.7035, 55.0307] · R²=0.017▼ FALLING -48.75%σ EXTREME 36.27%LAST 28.200655.030744.448933.867123.285312.7035μ = 30.6533max 55.0307min 12.7035dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 28.20% · range [12.70%, 55.03%] · μ 30.65% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.179 · σ=0.271MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.064 (+0.90σ vs μ)0.6800.3400.000-0.340-0.680μ = -0.179-0.309-0.309-0.051-0.0510.1120.112-0.089-0.0890.3630.3630.1430.143-0.361-0.361-0.072-0.072-0.221-0.221-0.353-0.353-0.680-0.680-0.239-0.239-0.418-0.418-0.467-0.467-0.593-0.593-0.276-0.2760.0830.083-0.040-0.0400.0640.064v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.064 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.1994
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9051
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.1612
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6778
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.9062
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7866
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.7816
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4345
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8275
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0061
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.1048
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2693
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.664 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.38e-5 · top T=3.00h (20.0%) · top-3 cover 51.2%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)3.3e-52.5e-51.7e-58.3e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.69e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.69e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.96e-5 · 11.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.96e-5 · 11.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.00e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.00e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.34e-5 · 14.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.34e-5 · 14.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.27e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.27e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.08e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.08e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.83e-5 · 17.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.83e-5 · 17.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.31e-5 · 20.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.31e-5 · 20.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.33e-6 · 3.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.33e-6 · 3.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.80e-5 · 10.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.80e-5 · 10.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.82e-5 · 11.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.82e-5 · 11.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.25e-5 · 7.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.25e-5 · 7.6% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 20.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.655e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-80.47×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -36.34400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.016
annualized -36.34
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -32.70σ ann 41% · Sortino -26.59 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3924%-3130%-2335%-1540%-746%49%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)40.6%Ann. vol σ-3270.1%Sharpe (ann)-2659.3%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.9250.9440.9630.9821.0011.020t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:00:20 UTC
Snapshot age
4.0s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:00:25 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
9273b4fbd110ec40dcbc7aa6d20dacdcf4e8f576216e299b1015e240f72455a8 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$9.17K
bid $441 · ask $8.73K
Depth within 10bp
$35.66K
bid $4.25K · ask $31.41K
Depth within 50bp
$89.03K
bid $23.63K · ask $65.40K
Mid price
0.967150
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.468
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.852
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-dot/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.9674563.17bp0.9674602FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.9675203.82bp0.9676905FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.9681059.87bp0.96920020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.9666874.79bp0.9665304FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.9662099.73bp0.96603010FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.96590812.85bp0.96542020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-4.869e-6
-0.00049% / hr
Annualised APR
-4.268%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
85.6d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
85.6d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE4.268%85.6d2.34y
SHORTPAY-4.268%85.6d2.34y

/api/asset/hl-dot/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$905.68K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-dot/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.145 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
9 / 15
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$343.59K
real volume
Sell weight
$460.42K
real volume
Net delta
$116.83K
sellers net
Imbalance
-14.53%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
14.5%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-dot/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 1.38% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z3.0h0.990910→0.9772101.383%4
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h0.979140→0.9657601.367%3
#32026-06-13 13:00:00Z0ms0.991710→0.9854200.634%1

/api/asset/hl-dot/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
40.64%
σ per bar = 0.000177
Mean return (annualised)
-1328.94%
μ per bar = -0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
-32.70
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.72%
peak 0.98 → trough 0.96 over 2700 bars

/api/asset/hl-dot/risk · same metrics, JSON