HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

DYM

DYM-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-dym · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 4.66%
realized vol (ann.)
121.17%
max drawdown
2.38%
sharpe
78.12
ulcer index
0.98%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.70%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
9642.91
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.08%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.18
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
4544.77
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.18
upside/downside
roll spread
2.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
4.66%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 32%
  • 24h change +4.66%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark rich vs HL oracle by 5.7bps — fade/short bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-dym/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.7s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.018
24h Δ · live
4.66%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
DYM · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0169 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0166, 0.0175] · R²=0.229▲ RISING +5.29%σ NORMAL 1.40%LAST 0.01750.01750.01730.01710.01680.0166μ = 0.0169max 0.0175min 0.0166dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.23μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.02
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=7,674,171 · μ=306966.8 · σ=148973.3 · CV=0.49STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=120178,083356,165534,248712,330μ = 306967712,330.150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 712330 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.7s
$mark $
$0.0175
$mid $
$0.0175
◉prev-day close
$0.0168
Δ24h Δ %
+4.657%
$24h vol $
$128.22k
◐open interest $
$193.18k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0169 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0166, 0.0175] · R²=0.229▲ RISING +5.29%σ NORMAL 1.40%LAST 0.01750.01750.01730.01710.01680.0166μ = 0.0169max 0.0175min 0.0166dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.23μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0175 · 24h 4.66% · range $[0.0166, 0.0175]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [0.0165, 0.0177] · σ=0.0002 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=53%BULLISH +5.22%CLOSE 0.0175 vs OPEN 0.0167 (+5.22%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.01750.01770.01740.01710.01680.0165μ close = 0.0169O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.06%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.06%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.66%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.66%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.78%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.78%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.30%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.30%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.53%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.53%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.41%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.41%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.35%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.35%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.65%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.65%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.30%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.30%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.36%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.36%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.89%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.89%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.78%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.78%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.18%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.18%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.12%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.12%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.24%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.24%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-1.25%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-1.25%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.12%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.12%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.42%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.42%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.42%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.42%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+1.31%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+1.31%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.76%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.76%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+1.01%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+1.01%)2.8%O0.017 H0.018 L0.017 C0.018 (+2.76%)O0.017 H0.018 L0.017 C0.018 (+2.76%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.017 C0.017 (-1.08%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.017 C0.017 (-1.08%)O0.017 H0.018 L0.017 C0.018 (+0.46%)O0.017 H0.018 L0.017 C0.018 (+0.46%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=7,674,171 · μ=306966.8 · σ=148973.3 · CV=0.49STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=120178,083356,165534,248712,330μ = 306967213,568.9 · 30.0% peak213,568.9 · 30.0% peak517,828 · 72.7% peak517,828 · 72.7% peak353,510.4 · 49.6% peak353,510.4 · 49.6% peak539,055.9 · 75.7% peak539,055.9 · 75.7% peak266,024.2 · 37.3% peak266,024.2 · 37.3% peak256,718.3 · 36.0% peak256,718.3 · 36.0% peak279,155 · 39.2% peak279,155 · 39.2% peak197,632 · 27.7% peak197,632 · 27.7% peak164,333.8 · 23.1% peak164,333.8 · 23.1% peak156,320.5 · 21.9% peak156,320.5 · 21.9% peak712,330.1712,330.1 · 100.0% peak712,330.1 · 100.0% peak245,585.4 · 34.5% peak245,585.4 · 34.5% peak201,285.3 · 28.3% peak201,285.3 · 28.3% peak491,084.2 · 68.9% peak491,084.2 · 68.9% peak294,829.3 · 41.4% peak294,829.3 · 41.4% peak303,402.2 · 42.6% peak303,402.2 · 42.6% peak127,256.8 · 17.9% peak127,256.8 · 17.9% peak203,509.9 · 28.6% peak203,509.9 · 28.6% peak247,700.7 · 34.8% peak247,700.7 · 34.8% peak190,493.5 · 26.7% peak190,493.5 · 26.7% peak176,434.8 · 24.8% peak176,434.8 · 24.8% peak411,714.7 · 57.8% peak411,714.7 · 57.8% peak409,580.4 · 57.5% peak409,580.4 · 57.5% peak509,768.3 · 71.6% peak509,768.3 · 71.6% peak205,048.3 · 28.8% peak205,048.3 · 28.8% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 7674171 · peak 712330 · CV 0.49

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0020 · σ=0.0080 · skew=0.65 (right-skewed) · kurt=0.57 (mesokurtic)65320 2-103.66bpbin -103.66bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -103.66bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 3-72.02bpbin -72.02bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -72.02bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 1-40.38bpbin -40.38bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -40.38bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 6-8.74bpbin -8.74bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -8.74bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 222.90bpbin 22.90bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 22.90bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 554.54bpbin 54.54bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin 54.54bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak 186.18bpbin 86.18bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 86.18bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 3117.83bpbin 117.83bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 117.83bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak149.47bp181.11bp212.75bp 1244.39bpbin 244.39bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 244.39bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 14 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.71 · kurt=1.02 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0175
Mid price
$0.0175
24h change
+4.66%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0168

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.16)
μ MEAN0.0169$95% CI: [0.0168$, 0.0170$]
σ STD DEV0.0002$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.40%
med MEDIAN0.0169$Q₁ 0.0168$ · Q₃ 0.0170$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0009$ · IQR 0.0002$ (1.349σ→0.0003$)
min 0.0166$Q₁ 0.0168$med 0.0169$Q₃ 0.0170$max 0.0175$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.165right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.941mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.17
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.52
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.92
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=24.08
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.214598%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.257
σᵣ STD / h0.834234%σ²ᵣ = 0.696×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.89×
σ ANNUALISED78.08%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.834%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)24.08excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)31.72strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.76right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.57leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.32
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+1879.88%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.94%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.944%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.144%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.085%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.52%10h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.944%VaR₉₉−1.144%ES₉₅−1.085%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 10h duration
PEAK1.70$
−2.52% drawdown over 10h
1.66$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.15× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.21× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.59% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
69.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
1.065 · above upper band
Bollinger upper
$0.0175
Bollinger MA
$0.0170
Bollinger lower
$0.0165

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.097within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.010lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.699persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.616significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.699
H = 0.699PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.097k=2+0.010k=3+0.260k=4-0.124k=5+0.1330+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.62)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.50high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.62)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$128.22k
Open interest (USD)
$193.18k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.66x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.60% · worst -1.19% · typical |Δ| 0.65%MILD BULLISH +5.15%BEST+2.60%09hWORST-1.19%02hTYPICAL |Δ|0.65%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+5.15%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.06%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.68% · Σ +5.45%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.24%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +5.15%+5.15%-0.30%0.60% · 12h0.60% · 12h0.60%12h0.89% · 13h0.89% · 13h0.89%13h-0.12% · 14h-0.12% · 14h-0.12%14h0.35% · 15h0.35% · 15h0.35%15h0.47% · 16h0.47% · 16h0.47%16h0.06% · 17h0.06% · 17h0.06%17h-0.59% · 18h-0.59% · 18h-0.59%18h-0.36% · 19h-0.36% · 19h-0.36%19h0.30% · 20h0.30% · 20h0.30%20h-0.77% · 21h-0.77% · 21h-0.77%21h0.59% · 22h0.59% · 22h0.59%22h0.06% · 23h0.06% · 23h0.06%23h-0.12% · 00h-0.12% · 00h-0.12%00h-0.24% · 01h-0.24% · 01h-0.24%01h-1.19% · 02h-1.19% · 02h-1.19%02h▼ WORST-0.24% · 03h-0.24% · 03h-0.24%03h0.54% · 04h0.54% · 04h0.54%04h0.60% · 05h0.60% · 05h0.60%05h1.24% · 06h1.24% · 06h1.24%06h-0.65% · 07h-0.65% · 07h-0.65%07h1.06% · 08h1.06% · 08h1.06%08h2.60% · 09h2.60% · 09h2.60%09h★ BEST-0.98% · 10h-0.98% · 10h-0.98%10h1.03% · 11h1.03% · 11h1.03%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+5.45%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH58% up · 42% down
14 up bars · 10 down · best 2.60% · worst -1.19% · typical |Δ| 0.652%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +5.20%FINAL+5.20%MAX DD-2.54%RECOVERYFULLY RECOVEREDMAX RUN-UP+5.20%UNDERWATER16/25 (64%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0520 · peak 1.0520 · range [0.9968, 1.0520]1.05200.9968break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0520UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.54% · moderate0%-2.54%▼ TROUGH -2.54%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.54%bar 8-21 · 14 bars · recovered#2 -0.98%bar 24-24 · 1 bars · recovered#3 -0.12%bar 4-4 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.54%)RECOVERYfully recoveredTIME UNDER WATER64% of session · 16/25 bars
final equity 1.0520 (5.20%) · max DD -2.54% · time-under-water 16/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=8.96 · σ=40.01MIXED EDGELAST 50.78 (+1.05σ vs μ)96.1648.080.00-48.08-96.16μ = 8.9696.1696.1632.4932.49-6.79-6.798.698.69-27.76-27.76-22.50-22.50-22.48-22.48-9.56-9.56-5.91-5.91-41.32-41.32-30.48-30.48-32.69-32.69-15.59-15.5912.9312.935.125.1254.0354.0379.0879.0845.9645.9650.7850.78v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 50.782 · range [-41.32, 96.16] · μ 8.956 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=63.3593 · σ=27.0369 · range [34.2619, 124.0020] · R²=0.758▲ RISING +261.92%σ EXTREME 42.67%LAST 124.0020124.0020101.566979.131956.696934.2619μ = 63.3593max 124.0020min 34.2619dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.76μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 124.00% · range [34.26%, 124.00%] · μ 63.36% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.139 · σ=0.358CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.486 (-0.97σ vs μ)0.6500.3250.000-0.325-0.650μ = -0.139-0.241-0.241-0.118-0.1180.4020.4020.3090.309-0.193-0.193-0.576-0.576-0.420-0.420-0.650-0.650-0.578-0.578-0.057-0.0570.1820.1820.0410.0410.3080.3080.4180.4180.0750.075-0.544-0.544-0.089-0.089-0.427-0.427-0.486-0.486v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.486 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
4.7869
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0913
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.3286
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6520
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.6164
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8590
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.1433
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8861
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3146
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1565
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.2964
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7669
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.910 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.71e-5 · top T=24.00h (20.3%) · top-3 cover 52.7%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.6e-41.2e-48.2e-54.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.63e-4 · 20.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.63e-4 · 20.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.10e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.10e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.47e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.47e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.34e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.34e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.17e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.17e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.90e-5 · 12.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.90e-5 · 12.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.01e-4 · 12.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.01e-4 · 12.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.45e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.45e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.60e-4 · 19.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.60e-4 · 19.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.73e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.73e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.97e-5 · 8.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.97e-5 · 8.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.81e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.81e-6 · 1.2% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=24.00h#2T=2.67h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 24.00h (freq 0.042) · concentrates 20.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 8.052e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -0.62× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.07%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.07%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-0.62×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×0.5×1.0×1.5×2.0×2.6×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -1.94400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.001
annualized -1.94
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -180% · APY -96% · Sharpe -1.06σ ann 170% · Sortino -0.54 · n 4999
-216%-132%-48%36%120%204%-179.8%APR (simple)-96.1%APY (compound)170.1%Ann. vol σ-105.7%Sharpe (ann)-54.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0160.0160.0170.0170.0180.018t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:34:45 UTC
Snapshot age
3.7s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:34:50 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
136a73df130fe8abecc0d8bb289b9fb8cf212abb3ae0a24d8dd7da1b5962e79d · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,653HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.66HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,726

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$664
bid $291 · ask $373
Depth within 10bp
$1.87K
bid $1.14K · ask $724
Depth within 50bp
$9.69K
bid $4.64K · ask $5.04K
Mid price
0.017535
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
5.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.076
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.137
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-dym/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0175497.99bp0.0175603FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.01764965.14bp0.01782014FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.017749122.19bp0.01806020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0175236.90bp0.0175202FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.01742562.90bp0.01722014FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.017275148.23bp0.01690020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-dym/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$7.67M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-dym/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.057 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
14 / 10
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$3.94M
real volume
Sell weight
$3.52M
real volume
Net delta
$428.35K
buyers net
Imbalance
5.74%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
5.7%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-dym/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 1.78% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-20 02:00:00Z2.0h0.016900→0.0166001.775%3
#22026-06-19 18:00:00Z3.0h0.017030→0.0167901.409%4
#32026-06-20 10:00:00Z0ms0.017520→0.0173500.970%1

/api/asset/hl-dym/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
170.10%
σ per bar = 0.000742
Mean return (annualised)
-179.78%
μ per bar = -0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
-1.06
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
7.22%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.02 over 2196 bars

/api/asset/hl-dym/risk · same metrics, JSON