HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ENA

ENA-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-ena · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.02%
realized vol (ann.)
70.75%
max drawdown
1.87%
sharpe
-17.57
ulcer index
0.73%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.57%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1710.66
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.65%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.97
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-753.59
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.97
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.02%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 32%
  • 24h change +1.02%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 6.9bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ena/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.9s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.082
24h Δ · live
1.02%
24h vol · live
$6.2M
ENA · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0842 · σ=0.0011 · range [0.0823, 0.0866] · R²=0.444▼ FALLING -0.27%σ NORMAL 1.36%LAST 0.08230.08660.08550.08440.08340.0823μ = 0.0842max 0.0866min 0.0823dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.44μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.08
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=73,486,961 · μ=2939478.4 · σ=3021775.4 · CV=1.03BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=503,438,4236,876,84510,315,26813,753,690μ = 293947813,753,69050%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 13753690 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.9s
$mark $
$0.0823
$mid $
$0.0823
◉prev-day close
$0.0815
Δ24h Δ %
+1.016%
$24h vol $
$6.17M
◐open interest $
$19.78M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0842 · σ=0.0011 · range [0.0823, 0.0866] · R²=0.444▼ FALLING -0.27%σ NORMAL 1.36%LAST 0.08230.08660.08550.08440.08340.0823μ = 0.0842max 0.0866min 0.0823dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.44μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0823 · 24h 1.02% · range $[0.0823, 0.0866]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.0813, 0.0869] · σ=0.0011 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=44%BULLISH +1.00%CLOSE 0.0823 vs OPEN 0.0815 (+1.00%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.08230.08690.08550.08410.08270.0813μ close = 0.0842O0.081 H0.083 L0.081 C0.083 (+1.28%)O0.081 H0.083 L0.081 C0.083 (+1.28%)2.2%O0.083 H0.085 L0.082 C0.084 (+2.18%)O0.083 H0.085 L0.082 C0.084 (+2.18%)O0.084 H0.086 L0.084 C0.086 (+1.50%)O0.084 H0.086 L0.084 C0.086 (+1.50%)O0.085 H0.087 L0.085 C0.087 (+1.31%)O0.085 H0.087 L0.085 C0.087 (+1.31%)O0.087 H0.087 L0.085 C0.085 (-1.56%)O0.087 H0.087 L0.085 C0.085 (-1.56%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.084 C0.086 (+0.88%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.084 C0.086 (+0.88%)O0.086 H0.086 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.93%)O0.086 H0.086 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.93%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.35%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.35%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.084 C0.085 (-0.12%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.084 C0.085 (-0.12%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.084 C0.085 (+0.13%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.084 C0.085 (+0.13%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.084 C0.085 (+0.83%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.084 C0.085 (+0.83%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.084 C0.084 (-1.77%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.084 C0.084 (-1.77%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.083 C0.084 (-0.04%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.083 C0.084 (-0.04%)O0.084 H0.085 L0.084 C0.084 (+0.49%)O0.084 H0.085 L0.084 C0.084 (+0.49%)O0.084 H0.086 L0.084 C0.084 (-0.07%)O0.084 H0.086 L0.084 C0.084 (-0.07%)O0.084 H0.085 L0.084 C0.085 (+0.51%)O0.084 H0.085 L0.084 C0.085 (+0.51%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.084 C0.084 (-0.01%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.084 C0.084 (-0.01%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.083 C0.084 (-0.71%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.083 C0.084 (-0.71%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.083 C0.084 (+0.22%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.083 C0.084 (+0.22%)O0.084 H0.085 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.98%)O0.084 H0.085 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.98%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (-0.13%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (-0.13%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.01%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.01%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.082 C0.084 (+0.61%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.082 C0.084 (+0.61%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.082 C0.082 (-1.59%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.082 C0.082 (-1.59%)O0.082 H0.082 L0.082 C0.082 (-0.00%)O0.082 H0.082 L0.082 C0.082 (-0.00%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=73,486,961 · μ=2939478.4 · σ=3021775.4 · CV=1.03BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=503,438,4236,876,84510,315,26813,753,690μ = 293947813,753,69013,753,690 · 100.0% peak13,753,690 · 100.0% peak8,590,888 · 62.5% peak8,590,888 · 62.5% peak5,082,141 · 37.0% peak5,082,141 · 37.0% peak4,904,941 · 35.7% peak4,904,941 · 35.7% peak7,023,868 · 51.1% peak7,023,868 · 51.1% peak2,590,992 · 18.8% peak2,590,992 · 18.8% peak2,951,476 · 21.5% peak2,951,476 · 21.5% peak639,272 · 4.6% peak639,272 · 4.6% peak1,459,042 · 10.6% peak1,459,042 · 10.6% peak1,376,598 · 10.0% peak1,376,598 · 10.0% peak2,600,157 · 18.9% peak2,600,157 · 18.9% peak1,599,097 · 11.6% peak1,599,097 · 11.6% peak1,032,073 · 7.5% peak1,032,073 · 7.5% peak1,244,802 · 9.1% peak1,244,802 · 9.1% peak1,083,674 · 7.9% peak1,083,674 · 7.9% peak3,031,884 · 22.0% peak3,031,884 · 22.0% peak2,487,321 · 18.1% peak2,487,321 · 18.1% peak433,674 · 3.2% peak433,674 · 3.2% peak2,155,119 · 15.7% peak2,155,119 · 15.7% peak2,546,759 · 18.5% peak2,546,759 · 18.5% peak2,727,507 · 19.8% peak2,727,507 · 19.8% peak1,345,934 · 9.8% peak1,345,934 · 9.8% peak1,595,782 · 11.6% peak1,595,782 · 11.6% peak1,229,937 · 8.9% peak1,229,937 · 8.9% peak333 · 0.0% peak333 · 0.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 73486961 · peak 13753690 · CV 1.03

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0003 · σ=0.0093 · skew=-0.00 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.37 (mesokurtic)75420 3-159.28bpbin -159.28bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin -159.28bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 1-126.36bpbin -126.36bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -126.36bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 2-93.44bpbin -93.44bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -93.44bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak-60.53bp 3-27.61bpbin -27.61bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin -27.61bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 75.31bpbin 5.31bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin 5.31bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 238.22bpbin 38.22bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin 38.22bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 271.14bpbin 71.14bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin 71.14bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 2104.06bpbin 104.06bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin 104.06bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 1136.98bpbin 136.98bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 136.98bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak169.89bp 1202.81bpbin 202.81bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 202.81bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.09 · kurt=-0.23 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0823
Mid price
$0.0823
24h change
+1.02%
Mark–mid spread
3.04 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0815

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0842$95% CI: [0.0837$, 0.0846$]
σ STD DEV0.0011$σ² = 0.013×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.36%
med MEDIAN0.0843$Q₁ 0.0835$ · Q₃ 0.0848$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0043$ · IQR 0.0013$ (1.349σ→0.0015$)
min 0.0823$Q₁ 0.0835$med 0.0843$Q₃ 0.0848$max 0.0866$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.074approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.733mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.12
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.21
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.80
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-1.08
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.011328%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.012
σᵣ STD / h0.980027%σ²ᵣ = 0.960×10⁻⁴ · CV = 86.51×
σ ANNUALISED91.73%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.980%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-1.08negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-1.10downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-19.81drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.10approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.01mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.01
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -19.81
EXPECTED EDGE-99.24%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.59%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.586%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.721%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.678%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN5.01%21h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.586%VaR₉₉−1.721%ES₉₅−1.678%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 21h duration
PEAK8.66$
−5.01% drawdown over 21h
8.23$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.06× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.08× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +5.27% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
45.6 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.062 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0860
Bollinger MA
$0.0840
Bollinger lower
$0.0820

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.071within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.106lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.962strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-4.285significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.962
H = 0.962STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.071k=2+0.106k=3-0.144k=4+0.023k=5-0.0390+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.28)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.28)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$6.17M
Open interest (USD)
$19.78M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.31x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-1.179× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-0.590× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-0.295×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.19% · worst -1.76% · typical |Δ| 0.72%MILD BEARISH -0.27%BEST+2.19%12hWORST-1.76%22hTYPICAL |Δ|0.72%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.27%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.14% · Σ -1.09%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.30% · Σ +2.41%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.20% · Σ -1.59%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.27%+4.87%-0.27%2.19% · 12h2.19% · 12h2.19%12h★ BEST1.49% · 13h1.49% · 13h1.49%13h1.19% · 14h1.19% · 14h1.19%14h-1.60% · 15h-1.60% · 15h-1.60%15h0.96% · 16h0.96% · 16h0.96%16h-1.14% · 17h-1.14% · 17h-1.14%17h-0.33% · 18h-0.33% · 18h-0.33%18h-0.27% · 19h-0.27% · 19h-0.27%19h0.17% · 20h0.17% · 20h0.17%20h0.81% · 21h0.81% · 21h0.81%21h-1.76% · 22h-1.76% · 22h-1.76%22h▼ WORST-0.03% · 23h-0.03% · 23h-0.03%23h0.52% · 00h0.52% · 00h0.52%00h-0.07% · 01h-0.07% · 01h-0.07%01h0.35% · 02h0.35% · 02h0.35%02h-0.24% · 03h-0.24% · 03h-0.24%03h-0.83% · 04h-0.83% · 04h-0.83%04h0.15% · 05h0.15% · 05h0.15%05h-1.02% · 06h-1.02% · 06h-1.02%06h0.03% · 07h0.03% · 07h0.03%07h0.01% · 08h0.01% · 08h0.01%08h0.65% · 09h0.65% · 09h0.65%09h-1.52% · 10h-1.52% · 10h-1.52%10h-0.00% · 11h-0.00% · 11h-0.00%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+2.41%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 2.19% · worst -1.76% · typical |Δ| 0.722%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.38%)FINAL-0.38%MAX DD-5.08%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+4.95%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9962 · peak 1.0495 · range [0.9962, 1.0495]1.04950.9962break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0495UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -5.08% · significant0%-5.08%▼ TROUGH -5.08%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -5.08%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -5.08%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9962 (-0.38%) · max DD -5.08% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-19.96 · σ=22.49UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -36.05 (-0.72σ vs μ)59.7229.860.00-29.86-59.72μ = -19.9631.6531.656.786.78-16.83-16.83-37.73-37.734.034.03-42.74-42.74-25.79-25.79-9.67-9.67-6.15-6.15-2.96-2.96-23.50-23.50-9.68-9.68-3.43-3.43-46.98-46.98-43.39-43.39-59.72-59.72-24.70-24.70-32.41-32.41-36.05-36.05v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -36.052 · range [-59.72, 31.65] · μ -19.963 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=77.4117 · σ=25.8253 · range [44.4522, 142.6098] · R²=0.562▼ FALLING -47.54%σ EXTREME 33.36%LAST 74.8083142.6098118.070493.531068.991644.4522μ = 77.4117max 142.6098min 44.4522dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.56μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 74.81% · range [44.45%, 142.61%] · μ 77.41% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.315 · σ=0.215MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.425 (-0.51σ vs μ)0.7370.3680.000-0.368-0.737μ = -0.315-0.069-0.069-0.275-0.275-0.737-0.737-0.629-0.629-0.154-0.154-0.210-0.210-0.409-0.409-0.338-0.338-0.325-0.325-0.358-0.3580.0050.0050.0560.056-0.074-0.074-0.285-0.285-0.501-0.501-0.613-0.613-0.239-0.239-0.405-0.405-0.425-0.425v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.425 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.0394
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9805
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.1429
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9487
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.7990
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3910
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4174
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6764
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6042
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0223
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.9544
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3399
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.710 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=9.20e-5 · top T=4.00h (20.1%) · top-3 cover 55.8%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.2e-41.7e-41.1e-45.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 5.63e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.63e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.23e-4 · 11.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.23e-4 · 11.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.30e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.30e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.83e-4 · 16.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.83e-4 · 16.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.43e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.43e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.22e-4 · 20.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.22e-4 · 20.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.27e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.27e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.30e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.30e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.26e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.26e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.11e-4 · 19.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.11e-4 · 19.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.34e-4 · 12.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.34e-4 · 12.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.34e-8 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.34e-8 · 0.0% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=4.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 20.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.105e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-59.78×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -47.66400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.021
annualized -47.66
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -46.80σ ann 78% · Sortino -44.51 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-5616%-4474%-3332%-2190%-1048%94%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)78.3%Ann. vol σ-4679.6%Sharpe (ann)-4451.0%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0790.0810.0830.0850.0860.088t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:00:50 UTC
Snapshot age
2.9s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:00:54 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
2f9b0c52bd0d9ee8df4bba30697e886d7c266adfa27db4539711ba737ad18c4b · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$4.65K
bid $4.00K · ask $652
Depth within 5bp
$17.76K
bid $12.83K · ask $4.94K
Depth within 10bp
$58.90K
bid $35.44K · ask $23.46K
Depth within 50bp
$65.15K
bid $35.44K · ask $29.71K
Mid price
0.082340
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
0.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.089
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.269
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ena/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0823470.88bp0.0823572FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0823754.28bp0.0823869FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.0823987.09bp0.08242620PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0823380.24bp0.0823381FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0823232.02bp0.0823048FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0822955.47bp0.08227020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-ena/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$73.49M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ena/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.247 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$37.25M
real volume
Sell weight
$22.49M
real volume
Net delta
$14.76M
buyers net
Imbalance
24.71%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
24.7%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ena/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.35% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 15:00:00Z4.0h0.086618→0.0845802.353%5
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z4.0h0.084580→0.0829631.912%5
#32026-06-13 22:00:00Z2.0h0.085418→0.0839011.776%3

/api/asset/hl-ena/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
78.28%
σ per bar = 0.000341
Mean return (annualised)
-3663.23%
μ per bar = -0.000007
Sharpe (rf=0)
-46.80
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.45%
peak 0.09 → trough 0.08 over 4997 bars

/api/asset/hl-ena/risk · same metrics, JSON