HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ENS

ENS-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-ens · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -5.57%
realized vol (ann.)
55.03%
max drawdown
1.23%
sharpe
-5.44
ulcer index
0.61%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.55%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-489.76
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.04%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.99
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-286.94
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.99
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-5.57%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -5.57%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ens/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.6s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$4.823
24h Δ · live
-5.57%
24h vol · live
$1.0M
ENS · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=5.0382 · σ=0.2271 · range [4.6566, 5.2621] · R²=0.569▼ FALLING -5.49%σ NORMAL 4.51%LAST 4.82285.26215.11074.95944.80804.6566μ = 5.0382max 5.2621min 4.6566dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.57μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $4.82
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=219,168 · μ=8766.7 · σ=24153.7 · CV=2.76BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=17028,92857,85586,783115,711μ = 8767115,710.6950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 115711 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.6s
$mark $
$4.8228
$mid $
$4.8225
◉prev-day close
$5.1075
Δ24h Δ %
-5.574%
$24h vol $
$1.04M
◐open interest $
$1.54M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=5.0382 · σ=0.2271 · range [4.6566, 5.2621] · R²=0.569▼ FALLING -5.49%σ NORMAL 4.51%LAST 4.82285.26215.11074.95944.80804.6566μ = 5.0382max 5.2621min 4.6566dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.57μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $4.8228 · 24h -5.57% · range $[4.6566, 5.2621]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 15 · down 10 (60% up) · range [4.4865, 5.2934] · σ=0.2271 · CV=0.05 · bodyµ=46%BEARISH -5.15%CLOSE 4.8228 vs OPEN 5.0846 (-5.15%)&#9660; CLOSE 4.82285.29345.09174.89004.68824.4865μ close = 5.0382O5.085 H5.123 L5.084 C5.103 (+0.36%)O5.085 H5.123 L5.084 C5.103 (+0.36%)O5.113 H5.168 L5.097 C5.157 (+0.86%)O5.113 H5.168 L5.097 C5.157 (+0.86%)O5.167 H5.249 L5.159 C5.240 (+1.41%)O5.167 H5.249 L5.159 C5.240 (+1.41%)O5.230 H5.253 L5.208 C5.235 (+0.09%)O5.230 H5.253 L5.208 C5.235 (+0.09%)O5.226 H5.241 L5.204 C5.230 (+0.07%)O5.226 H5.241 L5.204 C5.230 (+0.07%)O5.236 H5.249 L5.180 C5.181 (-1.04%)O5.236 H5.249 L5.180 C5.181 (-1.04%)O5.181 H5.266 L5.181 C5.262 (+1.56%)O5.181 H5.266 L5.181 C5.262 (+1.56%)O5.260 H5.274 L5.203 C5.235 (-0.46%)O5.260 H5.274 L5.203 C5.235 (-0.46%)O5.239 H5.239 L5.174 C5.190 (-0.93%)O5.239 H5.239 L5.174 C5.190 (-0.93%)O5.201 H5.230 L5.187 C5.222 (+0.40%)O5.201 H5.230 L5.187 C5.222 (+0.40%)O5.223 H5.230 L5.189 C5.202 (-0.41%)O5.223 H5.230 L5.189 C5.202 (-0.41%)O5.203 H5.250 L5.198 C5.227 (+0.46%)O5.203 H5.250 L5.198 C5.227 (+0.46%)O5.228 H5.256 L5.218 C5.256 (+0.54%)O5.228 H5.256 L5.218 C5.256 (+0.54%)O5.266 H5.293 L5.244 C5.248 (-0.35%)O5.266 H5.293 L5.244 C5.248 (-0.35%)O5.242 H5.245 L5.216 C5.245 (+0.05%)O5.242 H5.245 L5.216 C5.245 (+0.05%)-10.4%O5.248 H5.248 L4.668 C4.701 (-10.42%)O5.248 H5.248 L4.668 C4.701 (-10.42%)O4.715 H4.733 L4.487 C4.657 (-1.24%)O4.715 H4.733 L4.487 C4.657 (-1.24%)O4.647 H4.780 L4.642 C4.712 (+1.40%)O4.647 H4.780 L4.642 C4.712 (+1.40%)O4.709 H4.800 L4.692 C4.783 (+1.57%)O4.709 H4.800 L4.692 C4.783 (+1.57%)O4.784 H4.820 L4.752 C4.785 (+0.01%)O4.784 H4.820 L4.752 C4.785 (+0.01%)O4.789 H4.815 L4.774 C4.809 (+0.42%)O4.789 H4.815 L4.774 C4.809 (+0.42%)O4.795 H4.846 L4.788 C4.795 (-0.00%)O4.795 H4.846 L4.788 C4.795 (-0.00%)O4.803 H4.831 L4.797 C4.831 (+0.59%)O4.803 H4.831 L4.797 C4.831 (+0.59%)O4.832 H4.844 L4.802 C4.828 (-0.07%)O4.832 H4.844 L4.802 C4.828 (-0.07%)O4.829 H4.835 L4.804 C4.823 (-0.13%)O4.829 H4.835 L4.804 C4.823 (-0.13%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=219,168 · μ=8766.7 · σ=24153.7 · CV=2.76BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=17028,92857,85586,783115,711μ = 87671,056.21 · 0.9% peak1,056.21 · 0.9% peak1,696.38 · 1.5% peak1,696.38 · 1.5% peak1,105.91 · 1.0% peak1,105.91 · 1.0% peak364.32 · 0.3% peak364.32 · 0.3% peak432.91 · 0.4% peak432.91 · 0.4% peak1,468.18 · 1.3% peak1,468.18 · 1.3% peak1,081.29 · 0.9% peak1,081.29 · 0.9% peak1,100.03 · 1.0% peak1,100.03 · 1.0% peak869.9 · 0.8% peak869.9 · 0.8% peak550.39 · 0.5% peak550.39 · 0.5% peak411.12 · 0.4% peak411.12 · 0.4% peak1,021.58 · 0.9% peak1,021.58 · 0.9% peak272.47 · 0.2% peak272.47 · 0.2% peak894.16 · 0.8% peak894.16 · 0.8% peak1,951.55 · 1.7% peak1,951.55 · 1.7% peak26,911.8 · 23.3% peak26,911.8 · 23.3% peak115,710.69115,710.69 · 100.0% peak115,710.69 · 100.0% peak39,407.72 · 34.1% peak39,407.72 · 34.1% peak15,067.77 · 13.0% peak15,067.77 · 13.0% peak1,895.51 · 1.6% peak1,895.51 · 1.6% peak1,178.71 · 1.0% peak1,178.71 · 1.0% peak2,312.12 · 2.0% peak2,312.12 · 2.0% peak917.64 · 0.8% peak917.64 · 0.8% peak1,214.02 · 1.0% peak1,214.02 · 1.0% peak275.15 · 0.2% peak275.15 · 0.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 219168 · peak 115711 · CV 2.76

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0024 · σ=0.0224 · skew=-3.85 (left-skewed) · kurt=14.80 (leptokurtic (fat tails))118630 1-1042.61bpbin -1042.61bp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -1042.61bp · n=1 · 9.1% peak-938.13bp-833.65bp-729.17bp-624.70bp-520.22bp-415.74bp-311.26bp-206.78bp 4-102.30bpbin -102.30bp · n=4 · 36.4% peakbin -102.30bp · n=4 · 36.4% peak 112.18bpbin 2.18bp · n=11 · 100.0% peakbin 2.18bp · n=11 · 100.0% peak 8106.66bpbin 106.66bp · n=8 · 72.7% peakbin 106.66bp · n=8 · 72.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-3.85 · kurt=14.92 · near 8 / mid 13 / far 3 · OLS slope=0.71 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSTHIN UPPER TAILLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-2.51σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$4.8228
Mid price
$4.8225
24h change
-5.57%
Mark–mid spread
0.62 bps
Prev-day close
$5.1075

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.72)
μ MEAN5.0382$95% CI: [4.9492$, 5.1272$]
σ STD DEV0.2271$σ² = 0.052 · CV = 4.51%
med MEDIAN5.1811$Q₁ 4.8090$ · Q₃ 5.2350$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.6055$ · IQR 0.4260$ (1.349σ→0.3063$)
min 4.6566$Q₁ 4.8090$med 5.1811$Q₃ 5.2350$max 5.2621$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.411approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.723platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.63
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.72
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.67
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-9.16
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.235390%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.098
σᵣ STD / h2.404891%σ²ᵣ = 5.784×10⁻⁴ · CV = 10.22×
σ ANNUALISED225.09%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 2.405%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-9.16negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-7.16downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-4.11left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂18.87leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.78
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-2062.01%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.94%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.943%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)8.648%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)5.947%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN11.51%10h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.943%VaR₉₉−8.648%ES₉₅−5.947%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 10h duration
PEAK526.21$
−11.51% drawdown over 10h
465.66$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSextreme fat tail · ES ≫ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 6.31× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 9.17× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +13.00% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
40.6 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.314 · within band
Bollinger upper
$5.4748
Bollinger MA
$4.9995
Bollinger lower
$4.5242

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.066within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.111lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.787strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.509significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.787
H = 0.787STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.066k=2-0.111k=3-0.181k=4-0.067k=5-0.0050+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.51)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.64very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.51)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.04M
Open interest (USD)
$1.54M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.67x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-4.070× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-2.035× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-1.018×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.59% · worst -10.95% · typical |Δ| 1.05%MILD BEARISH -5.65%BEST+1.59%13hWORST-10.95%02hTYPICAL |Δ|1.05%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-5.65%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -1.11% · Σ -8.89%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.34% · Σ +2.74%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.06% · Σ +0.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -5.65%+3.07%-9.16%1.05% · 12h1.05% · 12h1.05%12h1.59% · 13h1.59% · 13h1.59%13h★ BEST-0.09% · 14h-0.09% · 14h-0.09%14h-0.10% · 15h-0.10% · 15h-0.10%15h-0.93% · 16h-0.93% · 16h-0.93%16h1.55% · 17h1.55% · 17h1.55%17h-0.51% · 18h-0.51% · 18h-0.51%18h-0.88% · 19h-0.88% · 19h-0.88%19h0.61% · 20h0.61% · 20h0.61%20h-0.38% · 21h-0.38% · 21h-0.38%21h0.49% · 22h0.49% · 22h0.49%22h0.55% · 23h0.55% · 23h0.55%23h-0.15% · 00h-0.15% · 00h-0.15%00h-0.06% · 01h-0.06% · 01h-0.06%01h-10.95% · 02h-10.95% · 02h-10.95%02h▼ WORST-0.94% · 03h-0.94% · 03h-0.94%03h1.19% · 04h1.19% · 04h1.19%04h1.48% · 05h1.48% · 05h1.48%05h0.04% · 06h0.04% · 06h0.04%06h0.51% · 07h0.51% · 07h0.51%07h-0.30% · 08h-0.30% · 08h-0.30%08h0.75% · 09h0.75% · 09h0.75%09h-0.06% · 10h-0.06% · 10h-0.06%10h-0.11% · 11h-0.11% · 11h-0.11%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+2.74%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 4BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 1.59% · worst -10.95% · typical |Δ| 1.053%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -6.17%FINAL-6.17%MAX DD-12.09%RECOVERYONGOING · 18 barsMAX RUN-UP+3.08%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9383 · peak 1.0308 · range [0.9062, 1.0308]1.03080.9062break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0308UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -12.09% · significant0%-12.09%▼ TROUGH -12.09%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -12.09%bar 8-25 · 18 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.12%bar 4-6 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -12.09%)RECOVERYongoing · 18 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9383 (-6.17%) · max DD -12.09% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=5.51 · σ=36.31MIXED EDGELAST 32.30 (+0.74σ vs μ)85.0642.530.00-42.53-85.06μ = 5.5146.2446.2422.0422.04-16.34-16.34-4.13-4.13-8.60-8.6015.2915.29-2.80-2.806.176.1738.5938.59-36.26-36.26-38.43-38.43-35.36-35.36-31.45-31.45-30.73-30.73-28.57-28.5733.7033.7085.0685.0657.8957.8932.3032.30v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 32.304 · range [-38.43, 85.06] · μ 5.507 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=186.6372 · σ=172.2297 · range [37.7359, 443.1687] · R²=0.064▼ FALLING -61.04%σ EXTREME 92.28%LAST 37.7359443.1687341.8105240.4523139.094137.7359μ = 186.6372max 443.1687min 37.7359dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.06μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 37.74% · range [37.74%, 443.17%] · μ 186.64% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.244 · σ=0.220MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.662 (-1.90σ vs μ)0.6620.3310.000-0.331-0.662μ = -0.244-0.059-0.059-0.429-0.429-0.411-0.411-0.485-0.485-0.523-0.523-0.284-0.284-0.119-0.119-0.447-0.447-0.382-0.382-0.009-0.009-0.116-0.116-0.135-0.135-0.071-0.071-0.044-0.0440.1030.103-0.144-0.1440.0130.013-0.426-0.426-0.662-0.662v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.662 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
423.6684
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.5830
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9031
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.0982
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7155
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.3854
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6999
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6518
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0179
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.2508
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8019
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.076 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.86e-4 · top T=6.00h (12.6%) · top-3 cover 36.5%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)8.9e-46.6e-44.4e-42.2e-40.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 5.80e-4 · 8.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.80e-4 · 8.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.46e-4 · 6.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.46e-4 · 6.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.81e-4 · 12.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.81e-4 · 12.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.85e-4 · 12.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.85e-4 · 12.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.23e-4 · 8.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.23e-4 · 8.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.01e-4 · 11.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.01e-4 · 11.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.47e-4 · 6.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.47e-4 · 6.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.83e-4 · 4.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.83e-4 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.32e-4 · 7.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.32e-4 · 7.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.41e-4 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.41e-4 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.48e-4 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.48e-4 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.67e-4 · 10.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.67e-4 · 10.9% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=6.00h#2T=8.00h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 6.00h (freq 0.167) · concentrates 12.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.034e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.002% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.002% · σ 0.12%
μ per barmean
-0.002%
σ per barvol
0.12%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-12.68×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.03%0.01%0.04%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -32.97400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.014
annualized -32.97
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.94×0.96×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -35.86σ ann 283% · Sortino -20.27 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-4303%-3374%-2446%-1518%-589%339%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)282.8%Ann. vol σ-3585.7%Sharpe (ann)-2027.3%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
4.4284.6644.8995.1345.3695.604t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:41:15 UTC
Snapshot age
1.6s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:41:18 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
0d35e7bb69cbec956bcc52955ee1c13d1a9765b8649d544bd76e7fd7a606664e · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.83K
bid $1.21K · ask $619
Depth within 10bp
$17.75K
bid $3.32K · ask $14.43K
Depth within 50bp
$78.88K
bid $43.22K · ask $35.66K
Mid price
4.822500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
5.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.053
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.324
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ens/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K4.82464.38bp4.82603FILLED
BUY$10.00K4.82648.07bp4.82676FILLED
BUY$100.00K4.840036.19bp4.855120PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K4.82083.56bp4.82064FILLED
SELL$10.00K4.816512.45bp4.813814FILLED
SELL$100.00K4.811522.82bp4.804820PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-ens/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$5.0000–$6.000015$14.28K
$4.0000–$5.0000★10$204.89K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ens/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.411 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$64.20K
real volume
Sell weight
$153.92K
real volume
Net delta
$89.72K
sellers net
Imbalance
-41.14%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
41.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ens/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 11.40% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-20 02:00:00Z2.0h5.2560→4.656611.404%3
#22026-06-19 18:00:00Z3.0h5.2621→5.18971.376%4
#32026-06-19 16:00:00Z0ms5.2396→5.18111.116%1

/api/asset/hl-ens/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
282.80%
σ per bar = 0.001234
Mean return (annualised)
-10140.44%
μ per bar = -0.000019
Sharpe (rf=0)
-35.86
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
11.74%
peak 5.38 → trough 4.75 over 479 bars

/api/asset/hl-ens/risk · same metrics, JSON