HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ETHFI

ETHFI-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-ethfi · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.17%
realized vol (ann.)
83.20%
max drawdown
2.15%
sharpe
-18.80
ulcer index
1.15%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.03%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1363.09
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.99%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.96
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-787.28
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.96
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.17%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ethfi/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.7s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.340
24h Δ · live
0.17%
24h vol · live
$1.0M
ETHFI · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.3462 · σ=0.0039 · range [0.3377, 0.3531] · R²=0.025▲ RISING +0.72%σ NORMAL 1.13%LAST 0.34020.35310.34930.34540.34160.3377μ = 0.3462max 0.3531min 0.3377dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.34
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=2,779,588 · μ=111183.5 · σ=125412.2 · CV=1.13BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=170161,025322,051483,076644,101μ = 111184644,101.450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 644101 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.7s
$mark $
$0.3402
$mid $
$0.3402
◉prev-day close
$0.3396
Δ24h Δ %
+0.171%
$24h vol $
$958.40k
◐open interest $
$3.38M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.3462 · σ=0.0039 · range [0.3377, 0.3531] · R²=0.025▲ RISING +0.72%σ NORMAL 1.13%LAST 0.34020.35310.34930.34540.34160.3377μ = 0.3462max 0.3531min 0.3377dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.3402 · 24h 0.17% · range $[0.3377, 0.3531]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.3362, 0.3553] · σ=0.0039 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=54%BULLISH +0.53%CLOSE 0.3402 vs OPEN 0.3384 (+0.53%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.34020.35530.35060.34580.34100.3362μ close = 0.3462O0.338 H0.340 L0.337 C0.338 (-0.19%)O0.338 H0.340 L0.337 C0.338 (-0.19%)O0.337 H0.344 L0.336 C0.344 (+1.95%)O0.337 H0.344 L0.336 C0.344 (+1.95%)2.4%O0.344 H0.353 L0.342 C0.352 (+2.42%)O0.344 H0.353 L0.342 C0.352 (+2.42%)O0.351 H0.355 L0.348 C0.348 (-1.01%)O0.351 H0.355 L0.348 C0.348 (-1.01%)O0.347 H0.350 L0.346 C0.348 (+0.17%)O0.347 H0.350 L0.346 C0.348 (+0.17%)O0.349 H0.355 L0.348 C0.349 (-0.09%)O0.349 H0.355 L0.348 C0.349 (-0.09%)O0.349 H0.354 L0.348 C0.353 (+1.17%)O0.349 H0.354 L0.348 C0.353 (+1.17%)O0.353 H0.353 L0.345 C0.347 (-1.78%)O0.353 H0.353 L0.345 C0.347 (-1.78%)O0.346 H0.346 L0.342 C0.343 (-0.69%)O0.346 H0.346 L0.342 C0.343 (-0.69%)O0.344 H0.346 L0.342 C0.346 (+0.59%)O0.344 H0.346 L0.342 C0.346 (+0.59%)O0.346 H0.347 L0.342 C0.342 (-1.00%)O0.346 H0.347 L0.342 C0.342 (-1.00%)O0.343 H0.344 L0.340 C0.343 (+0.20%)O0.343 H0.344 L0.340 C0.343 (+0.20%)O0.343 H0.347 L0.342 C0.346 (+0.96%)O0.343 H0.347 L0.342 C0.346 (+0.96%)O0.346 H0.350 L0.344 C0.348 (+0.37%)O0.346 H0.350 L0.344 C0.348 (+0.37%)O0.347 H0.353 L0.347 C0.352 (+1.40%)O0.347 H0.353 L0.347 C0.352 (+1.40%)O0.353 H0.353 L0.345 C0.345 (-2.09%)O0.353 H0.353 L0.345 C0.345 (-2.09%)O0.345 H0.354 L0.345 C0.350 (+1.54%)O0.345 H0.354 L0.345 C0.350 (+1.54%)O0.350 H0.352 L0.348 C0.349 (-0.43%)O0.350 H0.352 L0.348 C0.349 (-0.43%)O0.349 H0.352 L0.349 C0.350 (+0.45%)O0.349 H0.352 L0.349 C0.350 (+0.45%)O0.350 H0.353 L0.347 C0.348 (-0.69%)O0.350 H0.353 L0.347 C0.348 (-0.69%)O0.348 H0.348 L0.342 C0.343 (-1.42%)O0.348 H0.348 L0.342 C0.343 (-1.42%)O0.344 H0.348 L0.342 C0.343 (-0.22%)O0.344 H0.348 L0.342 C0.343 (-0.22%)O0.343 H0.345 L0.343 C0.345 (+0.50%)O0.343 H0.345 L0.343 C0.345 (+0.50%)O0.345 H0.346 L0.341 C0.342 (-0.74%)O0.345 H0.346 L0.341 C0.342 (-0.74%)O0.343 H0.343 L0.339 C0.340 (-0.80%)O0.343 H0.343 L0.339 C0.340 (-0.80%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=2,779,588 · μ=111183.5 · σ=125412.2 · CV=1.13BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=170161,025322,051483,076644,101μ = 11118442,694.8 · 6.6% peak42,694.8 · 6.6% peak59,604.9 · 9.3% peak59,604.9 · 9.3% peak97,621 · 15.2% peak97,621 · 15.2% peak66,187.6 · 10.3% peak66,187.6 · 10.3% peak133,346.3 · 20.7% peak133,346.3 · 20.7% peak167,898.6 · 26.1% peak167,898.6 · 26.1% peak94,244.4 · 14.6% peak94,244.4 · 14.6% peak45,040.7 · 7.0% peak45,040.7 · 7.0% peak33,481.5 · 5.2% peak33,481.5 · 5.2% peak124,237.2 · 19.3% peak124,237.2 · 19.3% peak29,534.6 · 4.6% peak29,534.6 · 4.6% peak100,664 · 15.6% peak100,664 · 15.6% peak22,377.7 · 3.5% peak22,377.7 · 3.5% peak39,877.1 · 6.2% peak39,877.1 · 6.2% peak77,883.5 · 12.1% peak77,883.5 · 12.1% peak58,949.2 · 9.2% peak58,949.2 · 9.2% peak644,101.4644,101.4 · 100.0% peak644,101.4 · 100.0% peak119,242.8 · 18.5% peak119,242.8 · 18.5% peak76,478.4 · 11.9% peak76,478.4 · 11.9% peak175,932.8 · 27.3% peak175,932.8 · 27.3% peak56,064.4 · 8.7% peak56,064.4 · 8.7% peak187,566.3 · 29.1% peak187,566.3 · 29.1% peak34,333.7 · 5.3% peak34,333.7 · 5.3% peak253,520.4 · 39.4% peak253,520.4 · 39.4% peak38,704.2 · 6.0% peak38,704.2 · 6.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 2779588 · peak 644101 · CV 1.13

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0003 · σ=0.0112 · skew=0.06 (symmetric) · kurt=-1.03 (platykurtic (thin tails))43210 2-181.63bpbin -181.63bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -181.63bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1-145.87bpbin -145.87bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -145.87bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 3-110.11bpbin -110.11bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -110.11bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 3-74.35bpbin -74.35bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -74.35bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 1-38.60bpbin -38.60bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -38.60bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 2-2.84bpbin -2.84bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -2.84bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 432.92bpbin 32.92bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 32.92bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 268.68bpbin 68.68bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 68.68bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1104.44bpbin 104.44bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 104.44bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 3140.20bpbin 140.20bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 140.20bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 1175.95bpbin 175.95bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 175.95bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1211.71bpbin 211.71bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 211.71bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.11 · kurt=-0.83 · near 24 / mid 0 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.3402
Mid price
$0.3402
24h change
+0.17%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.3396

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.3462$95% CI: [0.3447$, 0.3478$]
σ STD DEV0.0039$σ² = 0.152×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.13%
med MEDIAN0.3463$Q₁ 0.3432$ · Q₃ 0.3487$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0154$ · IQR 0.0055$ (1.349σ→0.0053$)
min 0.3377$Q₁ 0.3432$med 0.3463$Q₃ 0.3487$max 0.3531$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.094approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.747mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.02
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.95
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.95
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCELLENT · SR=2.43
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.029871%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.026
σᵣ STD / h1.151824%σ²ᵣ = 1.327×10⁻⁴ · CV = 38.56×
σ ANNUALISED107.80%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.152%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)2.43excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)2.46strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)71.30exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.12approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.73mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 1.02
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 71.30
EXPECTED EDGE+261.67%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.71%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.713%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.944%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.885%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.67%18h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.713%VaR₉₉−1.944%ES₉₅−1.885%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 18h duration
PEAK35.31$
−3.67% drawdown over 18h
34.02$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.10× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.14× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.81% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
47.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.076 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.3535
Bollinger MA
$0.3463
Bollinger lower
$0.3391

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.164within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.063lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.993strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.762fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.993
H = 0.993STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.164k=2-0.063k=3-0.026k=4+0.132k=5+0.0690+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.76)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.76)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$958.40k
Open interest (USD)
$3.38M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.28x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
2.252× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
1.126× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
0.563×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.30% · worst -2.00% · typical |Δ| 0.95%MILD BULLISH +0.72%BEST+2.30%13hWORST-2.00%02hTYPICAL |Δ|0.95%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.72%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.11% · Σ -0.91%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.27% · Σ +2.13%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.72%+4.46%0.00%1.85% · 12h1.85% · 12h1.85%12h2.30% · 13h2.30% · 13h2.30%13h★ BEST-1.16% · 14h-1.16% · 14h-1.16%14h0.02% · 15h0.02% · 15h0.02%15h0.20% · 16h0.20% · 16h0.20%16h1.26% · 17h1.26% · 17h1.26%17h-1.77% · 18h-1.77% · 18h-1.77%18h-0.99% · 19h-0.99% · 19h-0.99%19h0.67% · 20h0.67% · 20h0.67%20h-1.04% · 21h-1.04% · 21h-1.04%21h0.28% · 22h0.28% · 22h0.28%22h0.91% · 23h0.91% · 23h0.91%23h0.37% · 00h0.37% · 00h0.37%00h1.36% · 01h1.36% · 01h1.36%01h-2.00% · 02h-2.00% · 02h-2.00%02h▼ WORST1.46% · 03h1.46% · 03h1.46%03h-0.47% · 04h-0.47% · 04h-0.47%04h0.46% · 05h0.46% · 05h0.46%05h-0.73% · 06h-0.73% · 06h-0.73%06h-1.37% · 07h-1.37% · 07h-1.37%07h-0.11% · 08h-0.11% · 08h-0.11%08h0.63% · 09h0.63% · 09h0.63%09h-0.76% · 10h-0.76% · 10h-0.76%10h-0.62% · 11h-0.62% · 11h-0.62%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+2.13%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH54% up · 46% down
13 up bars · 11 down · best 2.30% · worst -2.00% · typical |Δ| 0.949%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.57%FINAL+0.57%MAX DD-3.76%RECOVERYONGOING · 18 barsMAX RUN-UP+4.50%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0057 · peak 1.0450 · range [1.0000, 1.0450]1.04501.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0450UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.76% · moderate0%-3.76%▼ TROUGH -3.76%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.76%bar 8-25 · 18 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.16%bar 4-6 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.76%)RECOVERYongoing · 18 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 1.0057 (0.57%) · max DD -3.76% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-6.45 · σ=31.12MIXED EDGELAST -68.18 (-1.98σ vs μ)68.1834.090.00-34.09-68.18μ = -6.4553.8353.838.698.69-34.63-34.63-8.76-8.76-22.52-22.52-21.25-21.25-27.95-27.953.513.5148.5048.50-1.47-1.4729.2829.2819.3119.3114.3614.360.970.97-33.10-33.10-12.08-12.08-33.09-33.09-37.93-37.93-68.18-68.18v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -68.185 · range [-68.18, 53.83] · μ -6.448 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=103.5394 · σ=21.8823 · range [63.6279, 140.5364] · R²=0.235▼ FALLING -47.35%σ EXTREME 21.13%LAST 63.6279140.5364121.3093102.082282.855163.6279μ = 103.5394max 140.5364min 63.6279dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.23μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 63.63% · range [63.63%, 140.54%] · μ 103.54% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.282 · σ=0.265MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.016 (+1.13σ vs μ)0.7680.3840.000-0.384-0.768μ = -0.2820.0290.029-0.420-0.420-0.088-0.088-0.168-0.168-0.279-0.279-0.440-0.440-0.017-0.017-0.308-0.308-0.089-0.089-0.234-0.234-0.614-0.614-0.675-0.675-0.739-0.739-0.768-0.768-0.389-0.389-0.075-0.075-0.001-0.001-0.109-0.1090.0160.016v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.016 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.5861
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7460
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.5596
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9059
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.3748
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0127
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4555
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6487
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1321
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4754
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.5340
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1250
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.533 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.38e-4 · top T=4.00h (26.5%) · top-3 cover 61.8%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)4.4e-43.3e-42.2e-41.1e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 5.82e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.82e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.17e-4 · 13.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.17e-4 · 13.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.32e-5 · 0.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.32e-5 · 0.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.65e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.65e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.37e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.37e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.40e-4 · 26.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.40e-4 · 26.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.72e-4 · 10.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.72e-4 · 10.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.68e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.68e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.94e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.94e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.18e-4 · 19.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.18e-4 · 19.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.03e-5 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.03e-5 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.68e-4 · 16.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.68e-4 · 16.1% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=4.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=2.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 26.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.659e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.06%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.06%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-36.97×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.04%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -56.66400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.025
annualized -56.66
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -51.09σ ann 138% · Sortino -36.53 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-6131%-4872%-3612%-2353%-1093%166%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)138.2%Ann. vol σ-5109.1%Sharpe (ann)-3653.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.3260.3370.3480.3580.3690.380t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:34:45 UTC
Snapshot age
3.7s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:34:51 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
fa89614efa08727ca0641dfba93ea40500397ce7099ec4e804017ebb3001a142 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.23K
bid $1.08K · ask $1.15K
Depth within 10bp
$9.57K
bid $6.62K · ask $2.95K
Depth within 50bp
$58.64K
bid $35.04K · ask $23.60K
Mid price
0.340180
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
8.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.197
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.595
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ethfi/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.3403434.78bp0.3403503FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.34056211.22bp0.34076012FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.34082919.08bp0.34159020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.3400214.68bp0.3400202FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.3398709.10bp0.3397505FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.33942322.25bp0.33887020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-ethfi/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$2.78M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ethfi/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.222 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.67M
real volume
Sell weight
$1.06M
real volume
Net delta
$608.44K
buyers net
Imbalance
22.23%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
22.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ethfi/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 3.09% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 18:00:00Z4.0h0.353130→0.3422103.092%5
#22026-06-20 06:00:00Z5.0h0.350460→0.3401702.936%6
#32026-06-20 02:00:00Z2.0h0.352350→0.3453901.975%3

/api/asset/hl-ethfi/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
138.21%
σ per bar = 0.000603
Mean return (annualised)
-7061.27%
μ per bar = -0.000013
Sharpe (rf=0)
-51.09
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
7.04%
peak 0.37 → trough 0.34 over 4227 bars

/api/asset/hl-ethfi/risk · same metrics, JSON