HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

FIL

FIL-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-fil · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.87%
realized vol (ann.)
45.20%
max drawdown
0.86%
sharpe
45.62
ulcer index
0.25%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.20%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
8150.11
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.64%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.07
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
3246.36
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.07
upside/downside
roll spread
0.5 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.87%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 5.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-fil/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.772
24h Δ · live
-0.87%
24h vol · live
$0.5M
FIL · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.7798 · σ=0.0077 · range [0.7672, 0.7922] · R²=0.737▼ FALLING -1.46%σ LOW 0.98%LAST 0.77130.79220.78600.77970.77350.7672μ = 0.7798max 0.7922min 0.7672dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.74μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.77
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=626,564 · μ=25062.6 · σ=26550.7 · CV=1.06BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=11027,10354,20781,310108,413μ = 25063108,413.450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 108413 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.2s
$mark $
$0.7716
$mid $
$0.7717
◉prev-day close
$0.7784
Δ24h Δ %
-0.870%
$24h vol $
$489.47k
◐open interest $
$2.83M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.7798 · σ=0.0077 · range [0.7672, 0.7922] · R²=0.737▼ FALLING -1.46%σ LOW 0.98%LAST 0.77130.79220.78600.77970.77350.7672μ = 0.7798max 0.7922min 0.7672dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.74μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.7716 · 24h -0.87% · range $[0.7672, 0.7922]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.7641, 0.7984] · σ=0.0077 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=36%BEARISH -0.92%CLOSE 0.7713 vs OPEN 0.7784 (-0.92%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.77130.79840.78980.78120.77270.7641μ close = 0.7798O0.778 H0.786 L0.778 C0.783 (+0.56%)O0.778 H0.786 L0.778 C0.783 (+0.56%)O0.783 H0.791 L0.782 C0.788 (+0.62%)O0.783 H0.791 L0.782 C0.788 (+0.62%)O0.786 H0.790 L0.783 C0.786 (-0.03%)O0.786 H0.790 L0.783 C0.786 (-0.03%)O0.786 H0.789 L0.780 C0.786 (-0.09%)O0.786 H0.789 L0.780 C0.786 (-0.09%)O0.786 H0.798 L0.785 C0.792 (+0.84%)O0.786 H0.798 L0.785 C0.792 (+0.84%)-0.9%O0.792 H0.792 L0.781 C0.785 (-0.94%)O0.792 H0.792 L0.781 C0.785 (-0.94%)O0.786 H0.791 L0.780 C0.786 (-0.00%)O0.786 H0.791 L0.780 C0.786 (-0.00%)O0.788 H0.790 L0.785 C0.787 (-0.07%)O0.788 H0.790 L0.785 C0.787 (-0.07%)O0.787 H0.793 L0.785 C0.787 (+0.03%)O0.787 H0.793 L0.785 C0.787 (+0.03%)O0.788 H0.788 L0.784 C0.785 (-0.35%)O0.788 H0.788 L0.784 C0.785 (-0.35%)O0.785 H0.792 L0.782 C0.789 (+0.54%)O0.785 H0.792 L0.782 C0.789 (+0.54%)O0.789 H0.790 L0.786 C0.786 (-0.33%)O0.789 H0.790 L0.786 C0.786 (-0.33%)O0.785 H0.787 L0.783 C0.783 (-0.27%)O0.785 H0.787 L0.783 C0.783 (-0.27%)O0.783 H0.785 L0.776 C0.779 (-0.63%)O0.783 H0.785 L0.776 C0.779 (-0.63%)O0.779 H0.780 L0.774 C0.777 (-0.28%)O0.779 H0.780 L0.774 C0.777 (-0.28%)O0.776 H0.780 L0.775 C0.776 (-0.06%)O0.776 H0.780 L0.775 C0.776 (-0.06%)O0.776 H0.777 L0.773 C0.776 (+0.03%)O0.776 H0.777 L0.773 C0.776 (+0.03%)O0.775 H0.777 L0.770 C0.772 (-0.47%)O0.775 H0.777 L0.770 C0.772 (-0.47%)O0.771 H0.771 L0.764 C0.771 (-0.03%)O0.771 H0.771 L0.764 C0.771 (-0.03%)O0.770 H0.774 L0.766 C0.767 (-0.41%)O0.770 H0.774 L0.766 C0.767 (-0.41%)O0.767 H0.768 L0.765 C0.767 (+0.08%)O0.767 H0.768 L0.765 C0.767 (+0.08%)O0.767 H0.772 L0.767 C0.769 (+0.27%)O0.767 H0.772 L0.767 C0.769 (+0.27%)O0.769 H0.777 L0.768 C0.776 (+0.81%)O0.769 H0.777 L0.768 C0.776 (+0.81%)O0.777 H0.777 L0.771 C0.772 (-0.65%)O0.777 H0.777 L0.771 C0.772 (-0.65%)O0.771 H0.771 L0.771 C0.771 (+0.01%)O0.771 H0.771 L0.771 C0.771 (+0.01%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=626,564 · μ=25062.6 · σ=26550.7 · CV=1.06BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=11027,10354,20781,310108,413μ = 250635,945.5 · 5.5% peak5,945.5 · 5.5% peak65,654.8 · 60.6% peak65,654.8 · 60.6% peak13,470.1 · 12.4% peak13,470.1 · 12.4% peak25,664.9 · 23.7% peak25,664.9 · 23.7% peak9,163.5 · 8.5% peak9,163.5 · 8.5% peak108,413.4108,413.4 · 100.0% peak108,413.4 · 100.0% peak35,294.4 · 32.6% peak35,294.4 · 32.6% peak12,525.2 · 11.6% peak12,525.2 · 11.6% peak15,292.9 · 14.1% peak15,292.9 · 14.1% peak18,821.5 · 17.4% peak18,821.5 · 17.4% peak36,144.7 · 33.3% peak36,144.7 · 33.3% peak14,039.1 · 12.9% peak14,039.1 · 12.9% peak6,920.5 · 6.4% peak6,920.5 · 6.4% peak26,817.3 · 24.7% peak26,817.3 · 24.7% peak14,578.9 · 13.4% peak14,578.9 · 13.4% peak31,068.3 · 28.7% peak31,068.3 · 28.7% peak10,393.5 · 9.6% peak10,393.5 · 9.6% peak14,535.6 · 13.4% peak14,535.6 · 13.4% peak24,492.5 · 22.6% peak24,492.5 · 22.6% peak7,954.7 · 7.3% peak7,954.7 · 7.3% peak8,223.3 · 7.6% peak8,223.3 · 7.6% peak9,533 · 8.8% peak9,533 · 8.8% peak93,383.6 · 86.1% peak93,383.6 · 86.1% peak17,227.5 · 15.9% peak17,227.5 · 15.9% peak1,005.6 · 0.9% peak1,005.6 · 0.9% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 626564 · peak 108413 · CV 1.06

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0008 · σ=0.0041 · skew=0.49 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.29 (mesokurtic)43210 1-84.60bpbin -84.60bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -84.60bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak-69.92bp 3-55.25bpbin -55.25bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -55.25bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 3-40.57bpbin -40.57bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -40.57bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 3-25.90bpbin -25.90bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -25.90bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 4-11.22bpbin -11.22bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -11.22bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 43.45bpbin 3.45bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 3.45bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 218.13bpbin 18.13bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 18.13bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak32.81bp 147.48bpbin 47.48bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 47.48bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 162.16bpbin 62.16bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 62.16bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 276.83bpbin 76.83bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 76.83bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 15
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.44 · kurt=-0.19 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.7716
Mid price
$0.7717
24h change
-0.87%
Mark–mid spread
0.78 bps
Prev-day close
$0.7784

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.48)
μ MEAN0.7798$95% CI: [0.7768$, 0.7829$]
σ STD DEV0.0077$σ² = 0.588×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.98%
med MEDIAN0.7827$Q₁ 0.7718$ · Q₃ 0.7862$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0250$ · IQR 0.0144$ (1.349σ→0.0103$)
min 0.7672$Q₁ 0.7718$med 0.7827$Q₃ 0.7862$max 0.7922$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.213approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.479platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.37
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.72
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.26
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-13.07
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.061456%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.140
σᵣ STD / h0.440095%σ²ᵣ = 0.194×10⁻⁴ · CV = 7.16×
σ ANNUALISED41.19%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.440%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-13.07negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-14.31downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.47approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.06mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.09
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-538.36%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.58%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.576%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.843%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.753%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.15%15h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.576%VaR₉₉−0.843%ES₉₅−0.753%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 15h duration
PEAK79.22$
−3.15% drawdown over 15h
76.72$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.31× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.46× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.25% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
42.2 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.271 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.7930
Bollinger MA
$0.7781
Bollinger lower
$0.7632

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.22 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.216within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.022lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.892strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-8.031significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.892
H = 0.892STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.216k=2-0.022k=3+0.103k=4-0.019k=5-0.2050+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.03)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.22 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.03)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$489.47k
Open interest (USD)
$2.83M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.17x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.84% · worst -0.92% · typical |Δ| 0.34%BEARISH SESSION -1.47%BEST+0.84%15hWORST-0.92%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.34%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.47%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.25% · Σ -2.02%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.21% · Σ +1.70%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.14% · Σ -1.15%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.47%+1.20%-2.00%0.64% · 12h0.64% · 12h0.64%12h-0.20% · 13h-0.20% · 13h-0.20%13h-0.08% · 14h-0.08% · 14h-0.08%14h0.84% · 15h0.84% · 15h0.84%15h★ BEST-0.92% · 16h-0.92% · 16h-0.92%16h▼ WORST0.10% · 17h0.10% · 17h0.10%17h0.21% · 18h0.21% · 18h0.21%18h0.01% · 19h0.01% · 19h0.01%19h-0.28% · 20h-0.28% · 20h-0.28%20h0.50% · 21h0.50% · 21h0.50%21h-0.34% · 22h-0.34% · 22h-0.34%22h-0.43% · 23h-0.43% · 23h-0.43%23h-0.59% · 00h-0.59% · 00h-0.59%00h-0.20% · 01h-0.20% · 01h-0.20%01h-0.14% · 02h-0.14% · 02h-0.14%02h-0.02% · 03h-0.02% · 03h-0.02%03h-0.51% · 04h-0.51% · 04h-0.51%04h-0.12% · 05h-0.12% · 05h-0.12%05h-0.47% · 06h-0.47% · 06h-0.47%06h0.02% · 07h0.02% · 07h0.02%07h0.25% · 08h0.25% · 08h0.25%08h0.80% · 09h0.80% · 09h0.80%09h-0.50% · 10h-0.50% · 10h-0.50%10h-0.06% · 11h-0.06% · 11h-0.06%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.70%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 9BREADTH38% up · 63% down
9 up bars · 15 down · best 0.84% · worst -0.92% · typical |Δ| 0.342%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.49%)FINAL-1.49%MAX DD-3.16%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.21%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9851 · peak 1.0121 · range [0.9800, 1.0121]1.01210.9800break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0121UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.16% · moderate0%-3.16%▼ TROUGH -3.16%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.16%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.28%bar 3-4 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.16%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9851 (-1.49%) · max DD -3.16% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-39.88 · σ=49.21UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 1.59 (+0.84σ vs μ)128.8364.410.00-64.41-128.83μ = -39.889.419.41-1.45-1.454.304.30-1.06-1.06-12.22-12.229.599.59-14.35-14.35-45.09-45.09-55.30-55.30-49.55-49.55-128.60-128.60-128.83-128.83-105.74-105.74-112.04-112.04-83.08-83.08-43.96-43.96-0.98-0.98-0.42-0.421.591.59v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 1.587 · range [-128.83, 9.59] · μ -39.882 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=37.0662 · σ=13.1878 · range [19.0361, 59.1511] · R²=0.231▼ FALLING -23.35%σ EXTREME 35.58%LAST 45.341259.151149.122439.093629.064919.0361μ = 37.0662max 59.1511min 19.0361dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.23μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 45.34% · range [19.04%, 59.15%] · μ 37.07% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.229 · σ=0.292MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.151 (+0.27σ vs μ)0.6230.3110.000-0.311-0.623μ = -0.229-0.513-0.513-0.542-0.542-0.569-0.569-0.504-0.504-0.174-0.174-0.623-0.623-0.265-0.265-0.069-0.069-0.048-0.0480.0290.0290.3610.3610.0490.049-0.296-0.296-0.465-0.465-0.589-0.589-0.118-0.1180.2580.258-0.121-0.121-0.151-0.151v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.151 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.8774
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6449
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.9916
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7039
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.8065
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8148
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.0049
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3150
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7773
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0081
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.0571
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2905
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.678 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.13e-5 · top T=2.00h (25.8%) · top-3 cover 65.6%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)6.6e-54.9e-53.3e-51.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.58e-5 · 10.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.58e-5 · 10.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.68e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.68e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.58e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.58e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.42e-5 · 9.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.42e-5 · 9.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.51e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.51e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.04e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.04e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.65e-5 · 14.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.65e-5 · 14.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.53e-5 · 25.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.53e-5 · 25.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.47e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.47e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.23e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.23e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.11e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.11e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.59e-5 · 25.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.59e-5 · 25.8% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 25.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.557e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-31.98×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -18.44400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.008
annualized -18.44
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -700% · APY -100% · Sharpe -14.96σ ann 47% · Sortino -13.03 · n 4999
-1795%-1425%-1055%-684%-314%56%-699.8%APR (simple)-99.9%APY (compound)46.8%Ann. vol σ-1496.0%Sharpe (ann)-1302.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.7340.7490.7650.7800.7960.811t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:01:21 UTC
Snapshot age
1.2s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:01:22 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
8d2c5158bf8ff79e007b656568da03aeef3dfb3e7579db9919501189170a9aff · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?22¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,486HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.1HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.99

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$14.35K
bid $1.48K · ask $12.87K
Depth within 10bp
$32.87K
bid $3.34K · ask $29.52K
Depth within 50bp
$89.96K
bid $42.07K · ask $47.89K
Mid price
0.771815
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.063
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.763
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-fil/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.7720062.48bp0.7720502FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.7720713.32bp0.7721805FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.7724608.35bp0.77302020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.7716242.48bp0.7715704FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.77100910.44bp0.7707108FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.77032119.36bp0.76981020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-fil/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$626.56K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-fil/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.081 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
9 / 15
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$285.22K
real volume
Sell weight
$335.40K
real volume
Net delta
$50.19K
sellers net
Imbalance
-8.09%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
8.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-fil/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 1.68% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 23:00:00Z3.0h0.789170→0.7758901.683%4
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z3.0h0.776960→0.7672401.251%4
#32026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.792200→0.7849500.915%3

/api/asset/hl-fil/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
46.78%
σ per bar = 0.000204
Mean return (annualised)
-699.77%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-14.96
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.07%
peak 0.78 → trough 0.76 over 1737 bars

/api/asset/hl-fil/risk · same metrics, JSON