HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

FOGO

FOGO-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-fogo · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.23%
realized vol (ann.)
71.65%
max drawdown
2.00%
sharpe
-36.94
ulcer index
0.65%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.50%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-4053.05
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.83%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.93
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1442.45
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.93
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.23%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 40%
  • 24h change -3.23%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 18.4bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-fogo/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.6s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.012
24h Δ · live
-3.23%
24h vol · live
$0.0M
FOGO · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0127 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0125, 0.0130] · R²=0.876▼ FALLING -3.07%σ NORMAL 1.15%LAST 0.01250.01300.01280.01270.01260.0125μ = 0.0127max 0.0130min 0.0125dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.88μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=3,958,317 · μ=158332.7 · σ=146623.9 · CV=0.93BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=130142,271284,542426,813569,084μ = 158333569,08450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 569084 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.6s
$mark $
$0.0125
$mid $
$0.0125
◉prev-day close
$0.0129
Δ24h Δ %
-3.233%
$24h vol $
$48.47k
◐open interest $
$357.90k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0127 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0125, 0.0130] · R²=0.876▼ FALLING -3.07%σ NORMAL 1.15%LAST 0.01250.01300.01280.01270.01260.0125μ = 0.0127max 0.0130min 0.0125dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.88μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0125 · 24h -3.23% · range $[0.0125, 0.0130]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 9 · down 16 (36% up) · range [0.0124, 0.0131] · σ=0.0001 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=43%STRONG BEARISH -3.59%CLOSE 0.0125 vs OPEN 0.0129 (-3.59%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.01250.01310.01290.01270.01260.0124μ close = 0.0127O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.54%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.54%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.58%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.58%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.29%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.29%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.16%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.16%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.62%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.62%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.66%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.66%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.47%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.47%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.16%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.16%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.71%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.71%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.24%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.24%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.45%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.45%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.09%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.09%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.00%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.00%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.36%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.36%)-1.1%O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.09%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.09%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.72%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.72%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.51%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.51%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.22%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.22%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.25%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.25%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.11%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.11%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.19%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.19%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.02%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.02%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.26%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.26%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.11%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.11%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.79%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.79%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=3,958,317 · μ=158332.7 · σ=146623.9 · CV=0.93BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=130142,271284,542426,813569,084μ = 158333185,247 · 32.6% peak185,247 · 32.6% peak192,888 · 33.9% peak192,888 · 33.9% peak203,933 · 35.8% peak203,933 · 35.8% peak121,685 · 21.4% peak121,685 · 21.4% peak45,170 · 7.9% peak45,170 · 7.9% peak266,555 · 46.8% peak266,555 · 46.8% peak69,782 · 12.3% peak69,782 · 12.3% peak161,597 · 28.4% peak161,597 · 28.4% peak61,810 · 10.9% peak61,810 · 10.9% peak390,439 · 68.6% peak390,439 · 68.6% peak122,194 · 21.5% peak122,194 · 21.5% peak114,868 · 20.2% peak114,868 · 20.2% peak88,613 · 15.6% peak88,613 · 15.6% peak43,085 · 7.6% peak43,085 · 7.6% peak145,464 · 25.6% peak145,464 · 25.6% peak569,084569,084 · 100.0% peak569,084 · 100.0% peak19,598 · 3.4% peak19,598 · 3.4% peak40,327 · 7.1% peak40,327 · 7.1% peak36,194 · 6.4% peak36,194 · 6.4% peak94,432 · 16.6% peak94,432 · 16.6% peak185,983 · 32.7% peak185,983 · 32.7% peak83,559 · 14.7% peak83,559 · 14.7% peak104,809 · 18.4% peak104,809 · 18.4% peak60,415 · 10.6% peak60,415 · 10.6% peak550,586 · 96.7% peak550,586 · 96.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 3958317 · peak 569084 · CV 0.93

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0013 · σ=0.0043 · skew=0.25 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.80 (mesokurtic)54310 1-84.00bpbin -84.00bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -84.00bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 3-70.20bpbin -70.20bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -70.20bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 1-56.41bpbin -56.41bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -56.41bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 4-42.61bpbin -42.61bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -42.61bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak-28.82bp 5-15.02bpbin -15.02bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -15.02bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 2-1.23bpbin -1.23bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -1.23bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 312.57bpbin 12.57bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 12.57bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 126.36bpbin 26.36bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 26.36bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 140.16bpbin 40.16bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 40.16bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 153.95bpbin 53.95bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 53.95bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 267.75bpbin 67.75bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 67.75bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 15
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.18 · kurt=-0.78 · near 24 / mid 0 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0125
Mid price
$0.0125
24h change
-3.23%
Mark–mid spread
1.61 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0129

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.58)
μ MEAN0.0127$95% CI: [0.0127$, 0.0128$]
σ STD DEV0.0001$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.15%
med MEDIAN0.0128$Q₁ 0.0126$ · Q₃ 0.0129$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0005$ · IQR 0.0003$ (1.349σ→0.0002$)
min 0.0125$Q₁ 0.0126$med 0.0128$Q₃ 0.0129$max 0.0130$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.054approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.580platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.33
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.68
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.28
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-27.03
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.129813%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.289
σᵣ STD / h0.449465%σ²ᵣ = 0.202×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.46×
σ ANNUALISED42.07%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.449%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-27.03negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-24.95downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.19approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.68mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.92
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1137.16%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.74%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.736%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.871%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.826%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.68%23h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.736%VaR₉₉−0.871%ES₉₅−0.826%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 23h duration
PEAK1.30$
−3.68% drawdown over 23h
1.25$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.12× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.18× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.82% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
31.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.127 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0129
Bollinger MA
$0.0127
Bollinger lower
$0.0124

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.157within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.015lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.596persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-12.739significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.596
H = 0.596PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.157k=2-0.015k=3-0.254k=4-0.223k=5+0.0410+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=12.74)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.35moderate · 1-step ahead inferrable|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=12.74)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$48.47k
Open interest (USD)
$357.90k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.14x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.75% · worst -0.91% · typical |Δ| 0.38%BEARISH SESSION -3.12%BEST+0.75%19hWORST-0.91%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.38%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.12%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.16% · Σ -1.31%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.02% · Σ +0.18%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.25% · Σ -1.99%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.12%+0.63%-3.12%0.63% · 15h0.63% · 15h0.63%15h-0.50% · 16h-0.50% · 16h-0.50%16h-0.17% · 17h-0.17% · 17h-0.17%17h-0.47% · 18h-0.47% · 18h-0.47%18h0.75% · 19h0.75% · 19h0.75%19h★ BEST-0.39% · 20h-0.39% · 20h-0.39%20h0.03% · 21h0.03% · 21h0.03%21h-0.55% · 22h-0.55% · 22h-0.55%22h-0.70% · 23h-0.70% · 23h-0.70%23h0.50% · 00h0.50% · 00h0.50%00h0.13% · 01h0.13% · 01h0.13%01h-0.12% · 02h-0.12% · 02h-0.12%02h0.40% · 03h0.40% · 03h0.40%03h-0.91% · 04h-0.91% · 04h-0.91%04h▼ WORST-0.69% · 05h-0.69% · 05h-0.69%05h-0.46% · 06h-0.46% · 06h-0.46%06h-0.16% · 07h-0.16% · 07h-0.16%07h0.25% · 08h0.25% · 08h0.25%08h0.10% · 09h0.10% · 09h0.10%09h-0.12% · 10h-0.12% · 10h-0.12%10h-0.02% · 11h-0.02% · 11h-0.02%11h-0.11% · 12h-0.11% · 12h-0.11%12h0.19% · 13h0.19% · 13h0.19%13h-0.74% · 14h-0.74% · 14h-0.74%14hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.18%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH38% up · 63% down
9 up bars · 15 down · best 0.75% · worst -0.91% · typical |Δ| 0.377%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-3.09%)FINAL-3.09%MAX DD-3.70%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.63%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9691 · peak 1.0063 · range [0.9691, 1.0063]1.00630.9691break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0063UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.70% · moderate0%-3.70%▼ TROUGH -3.70%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -3.70%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.70%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9691 (-3.09%) · max DD -3.70% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-27.52 · σ=22.81UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -33.31 (-0.25σ vs μ)64.8132.400.00-32.40-64.81μ = -27.52-3.86-3.86-24.63-24.63-25.84-25.84-38.67-38.67-9.34-9.34-33.17-33.17-24.67-24.67-10.63-10.63-18.83-18.83-18.60-18.60-51.59-51.59-64.81-64.81-47.25-47.25-64.69-64.69-48.90-48.90-26.58-26.58-6.37-6.3728.8928.89-33.31-33.31v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -33.308 · range [-64.81, 28.89] · μ -27.517 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=41.1221 · σ=12.5205 · range [14.4866, 54.9871] · R²=0.524▼ FALLING -41.84%σ EXTREME 30.45%LAST 30.794754.987144.862034.736924.611714.4866μ = 41.1221max 54.9871min 14.4866dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.52μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 30.79% · range [14.49%, 54.99%] · μ 41.12% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.088 · σ=0.300MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.353 (-0.88σ vs μ)0.5580.2790.000-0.279-0.558μ = -0.088-0.499-0.499-0.483-0.483-0.536-0.536-0.260-0.260-0.224-0.224-0.074-0.074-0.025-0.0250.0150.015-0.370-0.3700.1160.1160.0640.064-0.031-0.031-0.027-0.0270.5580.5580.4680.4680.1630.163-0.176-0.176-0.004-0.004-0.353-0.353v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.353 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.6039
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7394
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.1873
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5245
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.5430
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8761
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.7816
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4345
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8749
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0047
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.7869
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4314
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.761 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.23e-5 · top T=2.00h (26.2%) · top-3 cover 53.2%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)7.0e-55.2e-53.5e-51.7e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.93e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.93e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.51e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.51e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.81e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.81e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.03e-5 · 15.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.03e-5 · 15.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.39e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.39e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.43e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.43e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.50e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.50e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.21e-5 · 12.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.21e-5 · 12.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.15e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.15e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.47e-5 · 9.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.47e-5 · 9.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.27e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.27e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.00e-5 · 26.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.00e-5 · 26.2% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=6.00h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 26.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.673e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-33.47×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -12.62400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.006
annualized -12.62
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -21.13σ ann 63% · Sortino -11.95 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-2536%-2014%-1491%-969%-447%76%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)63.1%Ann. vol σ-2113.3%Sharpe (ann)-1194.7%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0120.0120.0120.0130.0130.013t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:51:24 UTC
Snapshot age
2.6s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:51:27 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
f3ac66110838e5b8b1c9eb85f0f7fa20471b38e6efcbc6c06d6e82d1bb64621f · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$1.54K
bid $1.03K · ask $507
Depth within 50bp
$10.82K
bid $5.34K · ask $5.48K
Mid price
0.012455
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
10.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.018
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.238
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-fogo/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0124658.58bp0.0124703FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.01252758.28bp0.01270714FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.012758243.35bp0.01362820PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0124485.22bp0.0124481FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.01239051.86bp0.01224412FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.012167231.05bp0.01115020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-fogo/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$3.96M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-fogo/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.421 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
9 / 15
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.09M
real volume
Sell weight
$2.68M
real volume
Net delta
$1.59M
sellers net
Imbalance
-42.10%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
42.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-fogo/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.19% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z3.0h0.012820→0.0125392.192%4
#22026-06-13 22:00:00Z2.0h0.012909→0.0127041.588%3
#32026-06-13 17:00:00Z1.0h0.012959→0.0128131.127%2

/api/asset/hl-fogo/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
63.15%
σ per bar = 0.000275
Mean return (annualised)
-1334.52%
μ per bar = -0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
-21.13
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.16%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 2438 bars

/api/asset/hl-fogo/risk · same metrics, JSON