HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

GAS

GAS-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-gas · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.22%
realized vol (ann.)
44.21%
max drawdown
0.70%
sharpe
54.32
ulcer index
0.22%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.16%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
11050.52
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.55%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.12
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
4353.13
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.12
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.22%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-66.30%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 41%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 24.9bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-gas/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$1.122
24h Δ · live
0.22%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
GAS · live 24h price
n=24 · μ=1.1219 · σ=0.0039 · range [1.1130, 1.1306] · R²=0.196▬ FLATσ LOW 0.35%LAST 1.12131.13061.12621.12181.11741.1130μ = 1.1219max 1.1306min 1.1130dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.20μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
24 closes · last $1.12
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.7%Short fee 50.3%SHORT FEE50.3%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.02% (99.98pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.7%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.3%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.007568% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=24 · Σ=44,935 · μ=1872.3 · σ=888.4 · CV=0.47STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1201,3132,6253,9385,251μ = 18725,250.650%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 5251 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.3s
$mark $
$1.1216
$mid $
$1.1223
◉prev-day close
$1.1191
Δ24h Δ %
+0.223%
$24h vol $
$50.42k
◐open interest $
$150.69k
%funding (1h)
-0.007568%
%funding (yr)
-66.30%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=24 · μ=1.1219 · σ=0.0039 · range [1.1130, 1.1306] · R²=0.196▬ FLATσ LOW 0.35%LAST 1.12131.13061.12621.12181.11741.1130μ = 1.1219max 1.1306min 1.1130dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.20μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $1.1216 · 24h 0.22% · range $[1.1130, 1.1306]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=24 · up 11 · down 13 (46% up) · range [1.1088, 1.1327] · σ=0.0039 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=39%CONSOLIDATINGCLOSE 1.1213 vs OPEN 1.1191 (+0.20%)&#9650; CLOSE 1.12131.13271.12671.12081.11481.1088μ close = 1.1219O1.119 H1.123 L1.118 C1.122 (+0.27%)O1.119 H1.123 L1.118 C1.122 (+0.27%)O1.122 H1.124 L1.119 C1.122 (+0.04%)O1.122 H1.124 L1.119 C1.122 (+0.04%)O1.121 H1.125 L1.120 C1.122 (+0.11%)O1.121 H1.125 L1.120 C1.122 (+0.11%)O1.123 H1.125 L1.119 C1.124 (+0.05%)O1.123 H1.125 L1.119 C1.124 (+0.05%)O1.123 H1.132 L1.122 C1.131 (+0.68%)O1.123 H1.132 L1.122 C1.131 (+0.68%)-0.7%O1.131 H1.131 L1.117 C1.123 (-0.69%)O1.131 H1.131 L1.117 C1.123 (-0.69%)O1.123 H1.126 L1.119 C1.119 (-0.30%)O1.123 H1.126 L1.119 C1.119 (-0.30%)O1.120 H1.124 L1.118 C1.120 (+0.06%)O1.120 H1.124 L1.118 C1.120 (+0.06%)O1.120 H1.129 L1.117 C1.125 (+0.39%)O1.120 H1.129 L1.117 C1.125 (+0.39%)O1.125 H1.125 L1.120 C1.121 (-0.33%)O1.125 H1.125 L1.120 C1.121 (-0.33%)O1.122 H1.132 L1.119 C1.130 (+0.67%)O1.122 H1.132 L1.119 C1.130 (+0.67%)O1.128 H1.133 L1.125 C1.125 (-0.22%)O1.128 H1.133 L1.125 C1.125 (-0.22%)O1.125 H1.126 L1.121 C1.124 (-0.08%)O1.125 H1.126 L1.121 C1.124 (-0.08%)O1.125 H1.125 L1.119 C1.121 (-0.37%)O1.125 H1.125 L1.119 C1.121 (-0.37%)O1.121 H1.126 L1.119 C1.124 (+0.29%)O1.121 H1.126 L1.119 C1.124 (+0.29%)O1.123 H1.126 L1.121 C1.121 (-0.17%)O1.123 H1.126 L1.121 C1.121 (-0.17%)O1.123 H1.125 L1.120 C1.123 (-0.02%)O1.123 H1.125 L1.120 C1.123 (-0.02%)O1.124 H1.124 L1.116 C1.119 (-0.44%)O1.124 H1.124 L1.116 C1.119 (-0.44%)O1.119 H1.120 L1.112 C1.119 (-0.04%)O1.119 H1.120 L1.112 C1.119 (-0.04%)O1.118 H1.121 L1.115 C1.115 (-0.26%)O1.118 H1.121 L1.115 C1.115 (-0.26%)O1.116 H1.116 L1.109 C1.113 (-0.29%)O1.116 H1.116 L1.109 C1.113 (-0.29%)O1.113 H1.120 L1.112 C1.117 (+0.31%)O1.113 H1.120 L1.112 C1.117 (+0.31%)O1.118 H1.125 L1.113 C1.124 (+0.49%)O1.118 H1.125 L1.113 C1.124 (+0.49%)O1.123 H1.128 L1.121 C1.121 (-0.17%)O1.123 H1.128 L1.121 C1.121 (-0.17%)#1#5#9#13#17#21up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(4) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
24 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=24 · Σ=44,935 · μ=1872.3 · σ=888.4 · CV=0.47STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1201,3132,6253,9385,251μ = 18725,250.65,250.6 · 100.0% peak5,250.6 · 100.0% peak1,663.4 · 31.7% peak1,663.4 · 31.7% peak2,109.7 · 40.2% peak2,109.7 · 40.2% peak1,511.9 · 28.8% peak1,511.9 · 28.8% peak1,528.7 · 29.1% peak1,528.7 · 29.1% peak1,739.3 · 33.1% peak1,739.3 · 33.1% peak1,298.9 · 24.7% peak1,298.9 · 24.7% peak1,773.9 · 33.8% peak1,773.9 · 33.8% peak1,674.6 · 31.9% peak1,674.6 · 31.9% peak1,383 · 26.3% peak1,383 · 26.3% peak1,361 · 25.9% peak1,361 · 25.9% peak1,632 · 31.1% peak1,632 · 31.1% peak1,991 · 37.9% peak1,991 · 37.9% peak3,851.7 · 73.4% peak3,851.7 · 73.4% peak1,082.4 · 20.6% peak1,082.4 · 20.6% peak1,655.5 · 31.5% peak1,655.5 · 31.5% peak1,454.6 · 27.7% peak1,454.6 · 27.7% peak1,688.1 · 32.2% peak1,688.1 · 32.2% peak1,748.7 · 33.3% peak1,748.7 · 33.3% peak1,318.8 · 25.1% peak1,318.8 · 25.1% peak2,185.5 · 41.6% peak2,185.5 · 41.6% peak1,494.3 · 28.5% peak1,494.3 · 28.5% peak1,914 · 36.5% peak1,914 · 36.5% peak1,623.7 · 30.9% peak1,623.7 · 30.9% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 44935 · peak 5251 · CV 0.47

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=23 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0001 · σ=0.0035 · skew=0.45 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.65 (mesokurtic)54310 1-63.09bpbin -63.09bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -63.09bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-50.80bp 3-38.52bpbin -38.52bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -38.52bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 5-26.23bpbin -26.23bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -26.23bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 2-13.95bpbin -13.95bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -13.95bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 3-1.66bpbin -1.66bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -1.66bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 210.63bpbin 10.63bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 10.63bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 222.91bpbin 22.91bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 22.91bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 235.20bpbin 35.20bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 35.20bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak47.48bp 259.77bpbin 59.77bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 59.77bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 172.05bpbin 72.05bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 72.05bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=23 · positive 9 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=23 · skew=0.46 · kurt=-0.43 · near 20 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$1.1216
Mid price
$1.1223
24h change
+0.22%
Mark–mid spread
6.24 bps
Prev-day close
$1.1191

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=24APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN1.1219$95% CI: [1.1203$, 1.1234$]
σ STD DEV0.0039$σ² = 0.153×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.35%
med MEDIAN1.1220$Q₁ 1.1201$ · Q₃ 1.1238$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0176$ · IQR 0.0037$ (1.349σ→0.0053$)
min 1.1130$Q₁ 1.1201$med 1.1220$Q₃ 1.1238$max 1.1306$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.037approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.407mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.02
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.42
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.50
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-0.79
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.003101%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.008
σᵣ STD / h0.368967%σ²ᵣ = 0.136×10⁻⁴ · CV = 118.99×
σ ANNUALISED34.53%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.369%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-0.79negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-0.97downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-17.45drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.49approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.22mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.23
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -17.45
EXPECTED EDGE-27.16%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKMODERATE · 95% VaR 0.41%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.408%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.632%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.555%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.56%16h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.408%VaR₉₉−0.632%ES₉₅−0.555%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 16h duration
PEAK113.06$
−1.56% drawdown over 16h
111.30$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.36× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.55× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.58% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
50.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.474 · within band
Bollinger upper
$1.1303
Bollinger MA
$1.1218
Bollinger lower
$1.1132

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.271within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.029lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.909strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.313significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.909
H = 0.909STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.271k=2-0.029k=3-0.279k=4+0.202k=5-0.3620+1−1+0.42−0.42+ momentum (ρ > +0.42)− reversal (ρ < −0.42)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.31)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.31)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$50.42k
Open interest (USD)
$150.69k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.33x
1h funding
-0.007568%
Funding (annualised)
-66.30%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-2.278× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-1.139× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-0.569×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=23 bars · best 0.78% · worst -0.69% · typical |Δ| 0.29%MILD BEARISH -0.07%BEST+0.78%21hWORST-0.69%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.29%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.07%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.13% · Σ -1.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.21% · Σ +1.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.57%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.07%+0.75%-0.81%-0.01% · 12h-0.01% · 12h-0.01%12h-0.01% · 13h-0.01% · 13h-0.01%13h0.18% · 14h0.18% · 14h0.18%14h0.59% · 15h0.59% · 15h0.59%15h-0.69% · 16h-0.69% · 16h-0.69%16h▼ WORST-0.30% · 17h-0.30% · 17h-0.30%17h0.08% · 18h0.08% · 18h0.08%18h0.39% · 19h0.39% · 19h0.39%19h-0.33% · 20h-0.33% · 20h-0.33%20h0.78% · 21h0.78% · 21h0.78%21h★ BEST-0.42% · 22h-0.42% · 22h-0.42%22h-0.08% · 23h-0.08% · 23h-0.08%23h-0.29% · 00h-0.29% · 00h-0.29%00h0.26% · 01h0.26% · 01h0.26%01h-0.20% · 02h-0.20% · 02h-0.20%02h0.11% · 03h0.11% · 03h0.11%03h-0.29% · 04h-0.29% · 04h-0.29%04h-0.06% · 05h-0.06% · 05h-0.06%05h-0.33% · 06h-0.33% · 06h-0.33%06h-0.19% · 07h-0.19% · 07h-0.19%07h0.34% · 08h0.34% · 08h0.34%08h0.62% · 09h0.62% · 09h0.62%09h-0.21% · 10h-0.21% · 10h-0.21%10hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.50%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH39% up · 61% down
9 up bars · 14 down · best 0.78% · worst -0.69% · typical |Δ| 0.294%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=24 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.09%)FINAL-0.09%MAX DD-1.57%RECOVERYONGOING · 19 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.76%UNDERWATER21/24 (88%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9991 · peak 1.0076 · range [0.9918, 1.0076]1.00760.9918break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0076UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.57% · moderate0%-1.57%▼ TROUGH -1.57%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.57%bar 6-24 · 19 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.02%bar 2-3 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.57%)RECOVERYongoing · 19 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 21/24 bars
final equity 0.9991 (-0.09%) · max DD -1.57% · time-under-water 21/24 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 5 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-14.88 · σ=31.60MIXED EDGELAST 10.16 (+0.79σ vs μ)81.4140.710.00-40.71-81.41μ = -14.882.512.51-8.93-8.93-5.46-5.462.562.56-38.31-38.3124.6024.6018.9918.9912.8212.82-12.91-12.919.679.67-53.46-53.46-17.71-17.71-31.19-31.19-15.76-15.76-81.41-81.41-80.14-80.14-36.55-36.5517.8517.8510.1610.16v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 10.159 · range [-81.41, 24.60] · μ -14.876 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=35.5686 · σ=11.8466 · range [16.6328, 48.7146] · R²=0.446▼ FALLING -11.49%σ EXTREME 33.31%LAST 38.492548.714640.694132.673724.653216.6328μ = 35.5686max 48.7146min 16.6328dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.45μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 38.49% · range [16.63%, 48.71%] · μ 35.57% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.339 · σ=0.314MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.059 (+1.27σ vs μ)0.7760.3880.000-0.388-0.776μ = -0.339-0.367-0.367-0.101-0.101-0.138-0.138-0.168-0.1680.1260.126-0.461-0.461-0.776-0.776-0.667-0.667-0.531-0.531-0.330-0.330-0.416-0.416-0.684-0.684-0.691-0.691-0.520-0.520-0.591-0.591-0.443-0.443-0.123-0.1230.3840.3840.0590.059v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.059 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.9724
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6150
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
9.5854
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0869
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.7771
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0643
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4686
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6394
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3585
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0951
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=2

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.1725
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2410
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.756 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=11 bins · noise floor μ=1.36e-5 · top T=2.09h (29.8%) · top-3 cover 62.1%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)4.5e-53.4e-52.2e-51.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 23.0 · power 2.94e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 23.0 · power 2.94e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 11.5 · power 7.20e-6 · 4.8% energyperiod 11.5 · power 7.20e-6 · 4.8% energyperiod 7.7 · power 3.65e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 7.7 · power 3.65e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 5.8 · power 2.53e-5 · 16.9% energyperiod 5.8 · power 2.53e-5 · 16.9% energyperiod 4.6 · power 1.39e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 4.6 · power 1.39e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 3.8 · power 1.49e-5 · 9.9% energyperiod 3.8 · power 1.49e-5 · 9.9% energyperiod 3.3 · power 8.39e-6 · 5.6% energyperiod 3.3 · power 8.39e-6 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.9 · power 2.30e-5 · 15.4% energyperiod 2.9 · power 2.30e-5 · 15.4% energyperiod 2.6 · power 1.33e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.6 · power 1.33e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.3 · power 4.46e-6 · 3.0% energyperiod 2.3 · power 4.46e-6 · 3.0% energyperiod 2.1 · power 4.47e-5 · 29.8% energyperiod 2.1 · power 4.47e-5 · 29.8% energy50% by T=3.3h#1 dominantT=2.09h#2T=5.75h#3T=2.88hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.09h (freq 0.478) · concentrates 29.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.498e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -2.40× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-2.40×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.4×2.8×4.2×5.6×7.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 1.91400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.001
annualized 1.91
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -38% · APY -36% · Sharpe -0.95σ ann 40% · Sortino -0.50 · n 4999
-114%-82%-49%-17%15%47%-37.5%APR (simple)-36.4%APY (compound)39.5%Ann. vol σ-94.8%Sharpe (ann)-50.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
1.0661.0881.1091.1311.1531.175t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:01:15 UTC
Snapshot age
3.3s
History points
24 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:01:18 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
623fdf9a67ac840c07b30964ccf83df392860b9288df40991136dec6bd2d9dc7 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$2.98K
bid $835 · ask $2.15K
Depth within 50bp
$28.42K
bid $13.48K · ask $14.94K
Mid price
1.122650
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
13.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.026
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.298
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-gas/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K1.12346.81bp1.12362FILLED
BUY$10.00K1.124718.03bp1.126212FILLED
BUY$100.00K1.126029.47bp1.129820PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K1.12187.55bp1.12153FILLED
SELL$10.00K1.120024.03bp1.118314FILLED
SELL$100.00K1.118933.84bp1.116320PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-7.568e-5
-0.00757% / hr
Annualised APR
-66.341%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
5.5d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
5.5d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE66.341%5.5d55.1d
SHORTPAY-66.341%5.5d55.1d

/api/asset/hl-gas/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 24 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$1.0000–$2.0000★24$44.94K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-gas/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.305 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
9 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$13.80K
real volume
Sell weight
$25.89K
real volume
Net delta
$12.09K
sellers net
Imbalance
-30.47%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
30.5%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 24-record window./api/asset/hl-gas/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 0.99% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h1.1306→1.11940.991%3
#22026-06-14 06:00:00Z1.0h1.1227→1.11300.864%2
#32026-06-14 00:00:00Z0ms1.1298→1.12090.788%1

/api/asset/hl-gas/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
39.55%
σ per bar = 0.000172
Mean return (annualised)
-37.51%
μ per bar = -0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
-0.95
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.34%
peak 1.12 → trough 1.11 over 2265 bars

/api/asset/hl-gas/risk · same metrics, JSON