HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

GOAT

GOAT-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-goat · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.08%
realized vol (ann.)
57.00%
max drawdown
2.53%
sharpe
-91.82
ulcer index
1.11%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.94%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-4734.67
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.39%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.86
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2186.65
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.86
upside/downside
roll spread
1.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.08%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -1.08%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 5.3bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-goat/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.013
24h Δ · live
-1.08%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
GOAT · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0136 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0133, 0.0137] · R²=0.156▼ FALLING -1.24%σ LOW 0.76%LAST 0.01330.01370.01360.01350.01340.0133μ = 0.0136max 0.0137min 0.0133dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.16μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=9,406,082 · μ=376243.3 · σ=444328.5 · CV=1.18BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=50411,866823,7321,235,5981,647,464μ = 3762431,647,46450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1647464 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.8s
$mark $
$0.0133
$mid $
$0.0133
◉prev-day close
$0.0134
Δ24h Δ %
-1.080%
$24h vol $
$127.51k
◐open interest $
$213.19k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0136 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0133, 0.0137] · R²=0.156▼ FALLING -1.24%σ LOW 0.76%LAST 0.01330.01370.01360.01350.01340.0133μ = 0.0136max 0.0137min 0.0133dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.16μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0133 · 24h -1.08% · range $[0.0133, 0.0137]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 15 · down 10 (60% up) · range [0.0132, 0.0139] · σ=0.0001 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=45%BEARISH -0.94%CLOSE 0.0133 vs OPEN 0.0134 (-0.94%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.01330.01390.01380.01360.01340.0132μ close = 0.0136O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.31%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.31%)O0.013 H0.014 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.26%)O0.013 H0.014 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.26%)1.2%O0.014 H0.014 L0.013 C0.014 (+1.18%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.013 C0.014 (+1.18%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.28%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.28%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.40%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.40%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.21%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.21%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.04%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.04%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.54%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.54%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.04%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.04%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.37%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.37%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.48%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.48%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.58%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.58%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.00%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.00%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.25%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.25%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-1.06%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-1.06%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.013 C0.014 (+0.42%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.013 C0.014 (+0.42%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.26%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.26%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.60%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.60%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.20%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.20%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.05%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.05%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.16%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.16%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.23%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.23%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.89%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.89%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.30%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.30%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.07%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.07%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=9,406,082 · μ=376243.3 · σ=444328.5 · CV=1.18BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=50411,866823,7321,235,5981,647,464μ = 37624359,146 · 3.6% peak59,146 · 3.6% peak383,831 · 23.3% peak383,831 · 23.3% peak1,647,4641,647,464 · 100.0% peak1,647,464 · 100.0% peak1,446,054 · 87.8% peak1,446,054 · 87.8% peak1,351,909 · 82.1% peak1,351,909 · 82.1% peak213,202 · 12.9% peak213,202 · 12.9% peak350,735 · 21.3% peak350,735 · 21.3% peak289,322 · 17.6% peak289,322 · 17.6% peak214,405 · 13.0% peak214,405 · 13.0% peak234,228 · 14.2% peak234,228 · 14.2% peak345,546 · 21.0% peak345,546 · 21.0% peak286,756 · 17.4% peak286,756 · 17.4% peak43,474 · 2.6% peak43,474 · 2.6% peak167,063 · 10.1% peak167,063 · 10.1% peak129,583 · 7.9% peak129,583 · 7.9% peak549,575 · 33.4% peak549,575 · 33.4% peak266,090 · 16.2% peak266,090 · 16.2% peak54,291 · 3.3% peak54,291 · 3.3% peak26,294 · 1.6% peak26,294 · 1.6% peak423,563 · 25.7% peak423,563 · 25.7% peak54,629 · 3.3% peak54,629 · 3.3% peak70,584 · 4.3% peak70,584 · 4.3% peak50,825 · 3.1% peak50,825 · 3.1% peak526,234 · 31.9% peak526,234 · 31.9% peak221,279 · 13.4% peak221,279 · 13.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 9406082 · peak 1647464 · CV 1.18

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0005 · σ=0.0050 · skew=0.15 (symmetric) · kurt=0.46 (mesokurtic)54310 3-93.07bpbin -93.07bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -93.07bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak-73.39bp 2-53.71bpbin -53.71bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -53.71bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2-34.03bpbin -34.03bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -34.03bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 4-14.35bpbin -14.35bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -14.35bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 55.32bpbin 5.32bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 5.32bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 525.00bpbin 25.00bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 25.00bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 144.68bpbin 44.68bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 44.68bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 164.36bpbin 64.36bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 64.36bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak84.04bp103.71bp 1123.39bpbin 123.39bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 123.39bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.21 · kurt=0.50 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0133
Mid price
$0.0133
24h change
-1.08%
Mark–mid spread
5.27 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0134

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-1.26)
μ MEAN0.0136$95% CI: [0.0136$, 0.0136$]
σ STD DEV0.0001$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.76%
med MEDIAN0.0136$Q₁ 0.0136$ · Q₃ 0.0137$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0004$ · IQR 0.0001$ (1.349σ→0.0001$)
min 0.0133$Q₁ 0.0136$med 0.0136$Q₃ 0.0137$max 0.0137$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.263left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.135leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.20
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.68
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.17
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-9.06
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.052059%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.097
σᵣ STD / h0.537753%σ²ᵣ = 0.289×10⁻⁴ · CV = 10.33×
σ ANNUALISED50.33%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.538%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-9.06negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-8.28downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.22approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.92mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.91
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-456.03%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.98%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.978%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.020%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.009%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.14%17h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.978%VaR₉₉−1.020%ES₉₅−1.009%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 17h duration
PEAK1.37$
−3.14% drawdown over 17h
1.33$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.03× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.04× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.24% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
36.0 · neutral
Bollinger %B
-0.234 · below lower band
Bollinger upper
$0.0138
Bollinger MA
$0.0136
Bollinger lower
$0.0134

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.070within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.099lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.664persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.061significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.664
H = 0.664PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.070k=2-0.099k=3-0.068k=4+0.126k=5+0.1840+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.06)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.40high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.06)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$127.51k
Open interest (USD)
$213.19k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.60x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.33% · worst -1.03% · typical |Δ| 0.40%MILD BEARISH -1.25%BEST+1.33%16hWORST-1.03%12hTYPICAL |Δ|0.40%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.25%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 5down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.51%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.23% · Σ -1.86%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.14% · Σ +1.11%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.25%+1.94%-1.25%0.33% · 15h0.33% · 15h0.33%15h1.33% · 16h1.33% · 16h1.33%16h★ BEST-0.12% · 17h-0.12% · 17h-0.12%17h-0.43% · 18h-0.43% · 18h-0.43%18h0.18% · 19h0.18% · 19h0.18%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.65% · 21h0.65% · 21h0.65%21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h-0.50% · 23h-0.50% · 23h-0.50%23h-0.38% · 00h-0.38% · 00h-0.38%00h0.52% · 01h0.52% · 01h0.52%01h0.14% · 02h0.14% · 02h0.14%02h0.05% · 03h0.05% · 03h0.05%03h-0.92% · 04h-0.92% · 04h-0.92%04h0.34% · 05h0.34% · 05h0.34%05h0.21% · 06h0.21% · 06h0.21%06h-0.47% · 07h-0.47% · 07h-0.47%07h0.10% · 08h0.10% · 08h0.10%08h0.32% · 09h0.32% · 09h0.32%09h-0.19% · 10h-0.19% · 10h-0.19%10h-0.23% · 11h-0.23% · 11h-0.23%11h-1.03% · 12h-1.03% · 12h-1.03%12h▼ WORST-0.17% · 13h-0.17% · 13h-0.17%13h-0.99% · 14h-0.99% · 14h-0.99%14hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+1.11%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 5BREADTH46% up · 46% down · 8% flat
11 up bars · 11 down · best 1.33% · worst -1.03% · typical |Δ| 0.400%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.27%)FINAL-1.27%MAX DD-3.16%RECOVERYONGOING · 16 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.95%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↘ 5EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9873 · peak 1.0195 · range [0.9873, 1.0195]1.01950.9873break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0195UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.16% · moderate0%-3.16%▼ TROUGH -3.16%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.16%bar 10-25 · 16 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.55%bar 4-7 · 4 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.16%)RECOVERYongoing · 16 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.9873 (-1.27%) · max DD -3.16% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-7.67 · σ=27.50MIXED EDGELAST -68.10 (-2.20σ vs μ)68.1034.050.00-34.05-68.10μ = -7.6733.2433.2439.7139.7112.0712.07-3.80-3.80-1.95-1.959.879.8714.5314.53-7.09-7.09-32.80-32.80-7.40-7.4010.6610.66-20.79-20.79-22.10-22.10-12.75-12.7515.0715.07-13.32-13.32-49.77-49.77-40.92-40.92-68.10-68.10v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -68.098 · range [-68.10, 39.71] · μ -7.665 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=43.4724 · σ=8.1193 · range [28.2111, 59.1833] · R²=0.056▼ FALLING -13.45%σ EXTREME 18.68%LAST 49.146159.183351.440343.697235.954228.2111μ = 43.4724max 59.1833min 28.2111dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.06μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 49.15% · range [28.21%, 59.18%] · μ 43.47% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.094 · σ=0.196CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.146 (-0.26σ vs μ)0.4680.2340.000-0.234-0.468μ = -0.0940.0060.006-0.077-0.077-0.072-0.072-0.070-0.0700.2250.225-0.000-0.0000.0780.0780.0930.0930.0380.038-0.352-0.352-0.147-0.147-0.361-0.361-0.468-0.468-0.266-0.266-0.225-0.225-0.319-0.3190.1260.1260.1530.153-0.146-0.146v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.146 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.0402
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5945
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.1580
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8284
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.7549
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8268
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.8739
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3822
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3578
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0953
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.5425
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5875
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.835 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.93e-5 · top T=4.80h (22.1%) · top-3 cover 49.3%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)7.8e-55.8e-53.9e-51.9e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.27e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.27e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.08e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.08e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.75e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.75e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.67e-5 · 10.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.67e-5 · 10.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.78e-5 · 22.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.78e-5 · 22.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.02e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.02e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.43e-5 · 12.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.43e-5 · 12.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.50e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.50e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.16e-5 · 14.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.16e-5 · 14.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.33e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.33e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.35e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.35e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.90e-5 · 11.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.90e-5 · 11.1% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=4.80h#2T=2.67h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.80h (freq 0.208) · concentrates 22.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.520e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-100.41×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -49.89400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.022
annualized -49.89
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -56.13σ ann 56% · Sortino -35.54 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-6735%-5375%-4014%-2654%-1293%67%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)55.9%Ann. vol σ-5612.5%Sharpe (ann)-3553.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0130.0130.0130.0140.0140.014t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:49:13 UTC
Snapshot age
1.8s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:49:14 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
e494d6c07d93f131ca9a26ebe6356086a77de61fae4c23ecb2d2ad42f6db38f0 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$7.42K
bid $3.72K · ask $3.70K
Mid price
0.013271
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
24.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.354
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.002
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-goat/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.01329013.76bp0.0133073FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.01339895.37bp0.01360915FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.013580232.48bp0.01372320PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.01325115.63bp0.0132343FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.01314496.05bp0.01299416FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.013052165.49bp0.01289020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-goat/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$9.41M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-goat/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.040 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$4.86M
real volume
Sell weight
$4.49M
real volume
Net delta
$376.61K
buyers net
Imbalance
4.03%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
4.0%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-goat/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.57% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 12:00:00Z2.0h0.013634→0.0132832.574%3
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z1.0h0.013691→0.0135660.913%2
#32026-06-14 00:00:00Z0ms0.013714→0.0135940.875%1

/api/asset/hl-goat/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
55.89%
σ per bar = 0.000244
Mean return (annualised)
-3137.08%
μ per bar = -0.000006
Sharpe (rf=0)
-56.13
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.32%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 3036 bars

/api/asset/hl-goat/risk · same metrics, JSON