HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

GRIFFAIN

GRIFFAIN-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-griffain · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 6.88%
realized vol (ann.)
96.29%
max drawdown
1.74%
sharpe
37.57
ulcer index
0.72%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.55%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
4993.62
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.46%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.08
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
2483.00
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.08
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
6.88%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • 24h change +6.88%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark rich vs HL oracle by 20.5bps — fade/short bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-griffain/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.009
24h Δ · live
6.88%
24h vol · live
$0.2M
GRIFFAIN · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0085 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0082, 0.0088] · R²=0.745▲ RISING +7.32%σ NORMAL 1.81%LAST 0.00880.00880.00870.00850.00830.0082μ = 0.0085max 0.0088min 0.0082dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.74μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=20,610,189 · μ=824407.6 · σ=991719.8 · CV=1.20BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1601,039,2662,078,5323,117,7984,157,064μ = 8244084,157,06450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 4157064 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.5s
$mark $
$0.0088
$mid $
$0.0088
◉prev-day close
$0.0082
Δ24h Δ %
+6.878%
$24h vol $
$168.31k
◐open interest $
$571.93k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0085 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0082, 0.0088] · R²=0.745▲ RISING +7.32%σ NORMAL 1.81%LAST 0.00880.00880.00870.00850.00830.0082μ = 0.0085max 0.0088min 0.0082dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.74μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0088 · 24h 6.88% · range $[0.0082, 0.0088]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [0.0081, 0.0089] · σ=0.0002 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=49%BULLISH +6.14%CLOSE 0.0088 vs OPEN 0.0083 (+6.14%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.00880.00890.00870.00850.00830.0081μ close = 0.0085O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.10%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.10%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.56%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.56%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+2.05%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+2.05%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.05%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.05%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.66%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.66%)O0.008 H0.009 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.61%)O0.008 H0.009 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.61%)O0.008 H0.009 L0.008 C0.009 (+1.77%)O0.008 H0.009 L0.008 C0.009 (+1.77%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.42%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.42%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.26%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.26%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.008 C0.009 (+0.48%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.008 C0.009 (+0.48%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.17%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.17%)O0.008 H0.009 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.05%)O0.008 H0.009 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.05%)O0.008 H0.009 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.37%)O0.008 H0.009 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.37%)O0.008 H0.009 L0.008 C0.009 (+0.44%)O0.008 H0.009 L0.008 C0.009 (+0.44%)O0.008 H0.009 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.66%)O0.008 H0.009 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.66%)2.4%O0.008 H0.009 L0.008 C0.009 (+2.43%)O0.008 H0.009 L0.008 C0.009 (+2.43%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-1.13%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-1.13%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.008 C0.009 (+1.16%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.008 C0.009 (+1.16%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.82%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.82%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.17%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.17%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.06%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.06%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.00%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.00%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.86%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.86%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.24%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.24%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.16%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.16%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=20,610,189 · μ=824407.6 · σ=991719.8 · CV=1.20BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1601,039,2662,078,5323,117,7984,157,064μ = 8244081,092,268 · 26.3% peak1,092,268 · 26.3% peak1,005,729 · 24.2% peak1,005,729 · 24.2% peak731,114 · 17.6% peak731,114 · 17.6% peak650,384 · 15.6% peak650,384 · 15.6% peak573,163 · 13.8% peak573,163 · 13.8% peak2,069,254 · 49.8% peak2,069,254 · 49.8% peak320,241 · 7.7% peak320,241 · 7.7% peak348,045 · 8.4% peak348,045 · 8.4% peak317,556 · 7.6% peak317,556 · 7.6% peak304,177 · 7.3% peak304,177 · 7.3% peak352,438 · 8.5% peak352,438 · 8.5% peak377,300 · 9.1% peak377,300 · 9.1% peak405,132 · 9.7% peak405,132 · 9.7% peak351,117 · 8.4% peak351,117 · 8.4% peak259,642 · 6.2% peak259,642 · 6.2% peak4,157,0644,157,064 · 100.0% peak4,157,064 · 100.0% peak381,048 · 9.2% peak381,048 · 9.2% peak570,704 · 13.7% peak570,704 · 13.7% peak365,087 · 8.8% peak365,087 · 8.8% peak233,916 · 5.6% peak233,916 · 5.6% peak475,562 · 11.4% peak475,562 · 11.4% peak743,662 · 17.9% peak743,662 · 17.9% peak3,526,988 · 84.8% peak3,526,988 · 84.8% peak751,314 · 18.1% peak751,314 · 18.1% peak247,284 · 5.9% peak247,284 · 5.9% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 20610189 · peak 4157064 · CV 1.20

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0030 · σ=0.0095 · skew=0.48 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.44 (mesokurtic)54310 2-122.02bpbin -122.02bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -122.02bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 1-90.82bpbin -90.82bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -90.82bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2-59.62bpbin -59.62bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -59.62bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 3-28.41bpbin -28.41bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -28.41bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 52.79bpbin 2.79bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 2.79bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 234.00bpbin 34.00bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 34.00bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 365.20bpbin 65.20bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 65.20bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 296.40bpbin 96.40bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 96.40bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak127.61bp 1158.81bpbin 158.81bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 158.81bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1190.02bpbin 190.02bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 190.02bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2221.22bpbin 221.22bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 221.22bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.42 · kurt=-0.36 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0088
Mid price
$0.0088
24h change
+6.88%
Mark–mid spread
1.14 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0082

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0085$95% CI: [0.0085$, 0.0086$]
σ STD DEV0.0002$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.81%
med MEDIAN0.0085$Q₁ 0.0084$ · Q₃ 0.0087$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0006$ · IQR 0.0002$ (1.349σ→0.0002$)
min 0.0082$Q₁ 0.0084$med 0.0085$Q₃ 0.0087$max 0.0088$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.216approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.194mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.14
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.97
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.12
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=27.69
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.294356%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.296
σᵣ STD / h0.995127%σ²ᵣ = 0.990×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.38×
σ ANNUALISED93.14%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.995%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)27.69excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)39.79strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.45approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.15mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.44
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+2578.55%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.25%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.247%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.357%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.335%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.74%8h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.247%VaR₉₉−1.357%ES₉₅−1.335%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 8h duration
PEAK0.86$
−1.74% drawdown over 8h
0.84$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.07× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.09× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.77% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
69.9 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.901 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0088
Bollinger MA
$0.0086
Bollinger lower
$0.0083

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.45 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.446negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.171lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.756strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+8.194significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.756
H = 0.756STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.446k=2+0.171k=3+0.008k=4+0.053k=5-0.0610+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.19)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.45 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.96very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.19)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$168.31k
Open interest (USD)
$571.93k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.29x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.37% · worst -1.38% · typical |Δ| 0.77%MILD BULLISH +7.06%BEST+2.37%02hWORST-1.38%21hTYPICAL |Δ|0.77%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+7.06%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.26% · Σ +2.11%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.64% · Σ +5.09%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.02% · Σ -0.14%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +7.06%+7.48%0.00%0.72% · 12h0.72% · 12h0.72%12h2.17% · 13h2.17% · 13h2.17%13h-0.04% · 14h-0.04% · 14h-0.04%14h0.83% · 15h0.83% · 15h0.83%15h-0.53% · 16h-0.53% · 16h-0.53%16h1.56% · 17h1.56% · 17h1.56%17h-0.47% · 18h-0.47% · 18h-0.47%18h-0.29% · 19h-0.29% · 19h-0.29%19h0.55% · 20h0.55% · 20h0.55%20h-1.38% · 21h-1.38% · 21h-1.38%21h▼ WORST0.06% · 22h0.06% · 22h0.06%22h0.35% · 23h0.35% · 23h0.35%23h0.40% · 00h0.40% · 00h0.40%00h-0.98% · 01h-0.98% · 01h-0.98%01h2.37% · 02h2.37% · 02h2.37%02h★ BEST-1.29% · 03h-1.29% · 03h-1.29%03h1.07% · 04h1.07% · 04h1.07%04h0.80% · 05h0.80% · 05h0.80%05h-0.23% · 06h-0.23% · 06h-0.23%06h-0.02% · 07h-0.02% · 07h-0.02%07h0.03% · 08h0.03% · 08h0.03%08h1.80% · 09h1.80% · 09h1.80%09h-0.30% · 10h-0.30% · 10h-0.30%10h-0.13% · 11h-0.13% · 11h-0.13%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+5.09%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH54% up · 46% down
13 up bars · 11 down · best 2.37% · worst -1.38% · typical |Δ| 0.765%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSTRONG PROFIT +7.19% · SHALLOW DDFINAL+7.19%MAX DD-1.76%RECOVERYONGOING · 8 barsMAX RUN-UP+7.64%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0719 · peak 1.0764 · range [1.0000, 1.0764]1.07641.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0764UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.76% · moderate0%-1.76%▼ TROUGH -1.76%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 6 total#1 -1.76%bar 8-15 · 8 bars · recovered#2 -1.29%bar 17-18 · 2 bars · recovered#3 -0.53%bar 6-6 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.76%)RECOVERYongoing · 18 barsTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 1.0719 (7.19%) · max DD -1.76% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +15 / −4 (79% positive) · μ=19.69 · σ=26.67PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 22.69 (+0.11σ vs μ)73.9736.980.00-36.98-73.97μ = 19.6973.9773.9749.1449.1419.7419.7430.4730.47-8.51-8.510.560.56-26.39-26.39-6.65-6.65-19.09-19.099.809.8010.9310.9322.2722.2727.1227.1219.5519.5533.3733.376.696.6968.4568.4540.0340.0322.6922.69v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 22.693 · range [-26.39, 73.97] · μ 19.691 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=94.6701 · σ=22.8786 · range [64.8666, 129.5928] · R²=0.005▼ FALLING -20.02%σ EXTREME 24.17%LAST 74.4230129.5928113.411397.229781.048264.8666μ = 94.6701max 129.5928min 64.8666dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 74.42% · range [64.87%, 129.59%] · μ 94.67% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.465 · σ=0.212MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.239 (+1.07σ vs μ)0.8040.4020.000-0.402-0.804μ = -0.465-0.475-0.475-0.562-0.562-0.616-0.616-0.610-0.610-0.430-0.430-0.320-0.320-0.453-0.453-0.337-0.337-0.362-0.362-0.304-0.304-0.710-0.710-0.804-0.804-0.748-0.748-0.734-0.734-0.522-0.522-0.232-0.2320.0250.025-0.400-0.400-0.239-0.239v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.239 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.8306
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6601
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.4405
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2648
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.1076
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2510
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.2965
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1948
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7900
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0075
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.7734
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0762
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.460 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=9.49e-5 · top T=2.18h (37.6%) · top-3 cover 63.9%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)4.3e-43.2e-42.1e-41.1e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 5.97e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.97e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.35e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.35e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.62e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.62e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.96e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.96e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.94e-5 · 6.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.94e-5 · 6.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.84e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.84e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.49e-4 · 13.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.49e-4 · 13.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.52e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.52e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.50e-4 · 13.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.50e-4 · 13.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.02e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.02e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.29e-4 · 37.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.29e-4 · 37.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.12e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.12e-7 · 0.0% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.18h#2T=2.67h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 37.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.139e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 2.88× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 2.67× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.09%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.09%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
2.88×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
2.67×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
1.44×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.72×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.5×3.1×4.6×6.1×7.7×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.67× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe 2.45400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.67× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.001
annualized 2.45
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.06%
VaR 95%5%
0.04%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.07%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.3%
0.93×0.96×0.99×1.02×1.05×1.08×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 5.22σ ann 196% · Sortino 5.85 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%240%480%720%960%1200%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)195.7%Ann. vol σ522.5%Sharpe (ann)585.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0080.0080.0080.0090.0090.009t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:41:21 UTC
Snapshot age
3.5s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:41:25 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
1af77f78d141ba4a97c39aeb18b4c15af707677fcbc8ec00cca4fb656eb446eb · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,678HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.81HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,726.6

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$996
bid $664 · ask $332
Depth within 10bp
$2.55K
bid $1.30K · ask $1.25K
Depth within 50bp
$24.75K
bid $12.43K · ask $12.31K
Mid price
0.008781
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.028
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.425
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-griffain/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0087854.96bp0.0087863FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00880122.89bp0.00881212FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.00881235.07bp0.00885020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0087765.33bp0.0087732FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00875925.04bp0.00874711FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.00875233.11bp0.00871820PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-griffain/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$20.61M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-griffain/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.376 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$13.43M
real volume
Sell weight
$6.09M
real volume
Net delta
$7.35M
buyers net
Imbalance
37.63%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
37.6%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-griffain/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.37% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 21:00:00Z2.0h0.008560→0.0084431.367%3
#22026-06-20 03:00:00Z0ms0.008631→0.0085201.286%1
#32026-06-20 01:00:00Z0ms0.008512→0.0084290.975%1

/api/asset/hl-griffain/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
195.75%
σ per bar = 0.000854
Mean return (annualised)
1022.74%
μ per bar = 0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
5.22
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
5.40%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 2125 bars

/api/asset/hl-griffain/risk · same metrics, JSON