HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

HYPER

HYPER-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-hyper · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.04%
realized vol (ann.)
148.78%
max drawdown
2.33%
sharpe
-11.96
ulcer index
1.15%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.01%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1541.09
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.07%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.95
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-859.56
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.95
upside/downside
roll spread
4.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.04%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-3.98%
signalLONGconfidence 44%suggested side: BUY
  • 24h change +1.04%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 17.2bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-hyper/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.4s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.073
24h Δ · live
1.04%
24h vol · live
$0.4M
HYPER · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0729 · σ=0.0005 · range [0.0720, 0.0741] · R²=0.156▲ RISING +0.27%σ LOW 0.66%LAST 0.07260.07410.07360.07310.07250.0720μ = 0.0729max 0.0741min 0.0720dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.16μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.07
Funding direction · live
Long fee 45.0%Short fee 55.0%SHORT FEE55.0%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.993 / 1.00 bits (99%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
45.0%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
55.0%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.000455% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=4,996,072 · μ=199842.9 · σ=273245.5 · CV=1.37BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=200306,789613,579920,3681,227,157μ = 1998431,227,15750%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1227157 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.4s
$mark $
$0.0726
$mid $
$0.0725
◉prev-day close
$0.0718
Δ24h Δ %
+1.039%
$24h vol $
$365.64k
◐open interest $
$146.21k
%funding (1h)
-0.000455%
%funding (yr)
-3.98%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0729 · σ=0.0005 · range [0.0720, 0.0741] · R²=0.156▲ RISING +0.27%σ LOW 0.66%LAST 0.07260.07410.07360.07310.07250.0720μ = 0.0729max 0.0741min 0.0720dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.16μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0726 · 24h 1.04% · range $[0.0720, 0.0741]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.0718, 0.0754] · σ=0.0005 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=45%BULLISH +1.09%CLOSE 0.0726 vs OPEN 0.0718 (+1.09%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.07260.07540.07450.07360.07270.0718μ close = 0.0729O0.072 H0.073 L0.072 C0.072 (+0.81%)O0.072 H0.073 L0.072 C0.072 (+0.81%)O0.072 H0.073 L0.072 C0.072 (-0.05%)O0.072 H0.073 L0.072 C0.072 (-0.05%)O0.072 H0.073 L0.072 C0.072 (-0.26%)O0.072 H0.073 L0.072 C0.072 (-0.26%)O0.072 H0.072 L0.072 C0.072 (-0.41%)O0.072 H0.072 L0.072 C0.072 (-0.41%)O0.072 H0.073 L0.072 C0.073 (+1.20%)O0.072 H0.073 L0.072 C0.073 (+1.20%)O0.073 H0.073 L0.073 C0.073 (-0.20%)O0.073 H0.073 L0.073 C0.073 (-0.20%)O0.073 H0.073 L0.072 C0.073 (-0.40%)O0.073 H0.073 L0.072 C0.073 (-0.40%)O0.073 H0.073 L0.073 C0.073 (+0.00%)O0.073 H0.073 L0.073 C0.073 (+0.00%)O0.073 H0.074 L0.073 C0.073 (+0.65%)O0.073 H0.074 L0.073 C0.073 (+0.65%)O0.073 H0.073 L0.073 C0.073 (-0.00%)O0.073 H0.073 L0.073 C0.073 (-0.00%)O0.073 H0.073 L0.073 C0.073 (-0.41%)O0.073 H0.073 L0.073 C0.073 (-0.41%)O0.073 H0.074 L0.073 C0.073 (+0.40%)O0.073 H0.074 L0.073 C0.073 (+0.40%)O0.073 H0.074 L0.073 C0.074 (+1.24%)O0.073 H0.074 L0.073 C0.074 (+1.24%)O0.074 H0.074 L0.073 C0.073 (-1.07%)O0.074 H0.074 L0.073 C0.073 (-1.07%)O0.073 H0.073 L0.073 C0.073 (-0.12%)O0.073 H0.073 L0.073 C0.073 (-0.12%)O0.073 H0.073 L0.073 C0.073 (+0.52%)O0.073 H0.073 L0.073 C0.073 (+0.52%)O0.073 H0.074 L0.073 C0.073 (-0.39%)O0.073 H0.074 L0.073 C0.073 (-0.39%)O0.073 H0.073 L0.073 C0.073 (-0.60%)O0.073 H0.073 L0.073 C0.073 (-0.60%)O0.073 H0.073 L0.072 C0.073 (+0.27%)O0.073 H0.073 L0.072 C0.073 (+0.27%)O0.073 H0.075 L0.073 C0.074 (+1.53%)O0.073 H0.075 L0.073 C0.074 (+1.53%)-1.6%O0.074 H0.074 L0.073 C0.073 (-1.58%)O0.074 H0.074 L0.073 C0.073 (-1.58%)O0.073 H0.074 L0.073 C0.073 (+0.89%)O0.073 H0.074 L0.073 C0.073 (+0.89%)O0.073 H0.075 L0.073 C0.074 (+0.14%)O0.073 H0.075 L0.073 C0.074 (+0.14%)O0.074 H0.074 L0.073 C0.073 (-1.21%)O0.074 H0.074 L0.073 C0.073 (-1.21%)O0.073 H0.073 L0.073 C0.073 (-0.03%)O0.073 H0.073 L0.073 C0.073 (-0.03%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=4,996,072 · μ=199842.9 · σ=273245.5 · CV=1.37BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=200306,789613,579920,3681,227,157μ = 19984342,476 · 3.5% peak42,476 · 3.5% peak126,050 · 10.3% peak126,050 · 10.3% peak84,791 · 6.9% peak84,791 · 6.9% peak26,801 · 2.2% peak26,801 · 2.2% peak144,812 · 11.8% peak144,812 · 11.8% peak259,401 · 21.1% peak259,401 · 21.1% peak69,115 · 5.6% peak69,115 · 5.6% peak28,388 · 2.3% peak28,388 · 2.3% peak63,129 · 5.1% peak63,129 · 5.1% peak155,239 · 12.7% peak155,239 · 12.7% peak104,981 · 8.6% peak104,981 · 8.6% peak179,214 · 14.6% peak179,214 · 14.6% peak192,244 · 15.7% peak192,244 · 15.7% peak246,798 · 20.1% peak246,798 · 20.1% peak42,466 · 3.5% peak42,466 · 3.5% peak86,131 · 7.0% peak86,131 · 7.0% peak53,848 · 4.4% peak53,848 · 4.4% peak36,069 · 2.9% peak36,069 · 2.9% peak152,924 · 12.5% peak152,924 · 12.5% peak716,866 · 58.4% peak716,866 · 58.4% peak249,475 · 20.3% peak249,475 · 20.3% peak612,020 · 49.9% peak612,020 · 49.9% peak1,227,1571,227,157 · 100.0% peak1,227,157 · 100.0% peak91,473 · 7.5% peak91,473 · 7.5% peak4,204 · 0.3% peak4,204 · 0.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 4996072 · peak 1227157 · CV 1.37

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0002 · σ=0.0075 · skew=0.08 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.24 (mesokurtic)75420 1-149.00bpbin -149.00bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -149.00bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 2-121.63bpbin -121.63bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -121.63bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak-94.25bp 1-66.87bpbin -66.87bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -66.87bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 3-39.49bpbin -39.49bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin -39.49bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 7-12.11bpbin -12.11bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin -12.11bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 315.27bpbin 15.27bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin 15.27bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 242.65bpbin 42.65bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin 42.65bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 170.03bpbin 70.03bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 70.03bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 197.41bpbin 97.41bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 97.41bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 2124.79bpbin 124.79bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin 124.79bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 1152.17bpbin 152.17bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 152.17bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.06 · kurt=0.03 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0726
Mid price
$0.0725
24h change
+1.04%
Mark–mid spread
3.72 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0718

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0729$95% CI: [0.0728$, 0.0731$]
σ STD DEV0.0005$σ² = 0.002×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.66%
med MEDIAN0.0730$Q₁ 0.0727$ · Q₃ 0.0732$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0021$ · IQR 0.0006$ (1.349σ→0.0007$)
min 0.0720$Q₁ 0.0727$med 0.0730$Q₃ 0.0732$max 0.0741$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.449approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.163mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.02
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.17
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.24
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDGOOD · SR=1.35
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.011321%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.014
σᵣ STD / h0.784494%σ²ᵣ = 0.615×10⁻⁴ · CV = 69.30×
σ ANNUALISED73.42%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.784%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)1.35good · industry threshold
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)1.54good downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)48.46exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.06approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.34mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.14
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 48.46
EXPECTED EDGE+99.17%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.29%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.287%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.553%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.466%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.05%5h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.287%VaR₉₉−1.553%ES₉₅−1.466%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 5h duration
PEAK7.41$
−2.05% drawdown over 5h
7.26$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.14× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.21× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.09% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
48.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.222 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0739
Bollinger MA
$0.0731
Bollinger lower
$0.0722

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.39 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.394within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.252lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.766strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.065significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.766
H = 0.766STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.394k=2-0.252k=3+0.288k=4+0.108k=5-0.3060+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.07)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.39 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.93very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.07)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$365.64k
Open interest (USD)
$146.21k
Vol / OI (turnover)
2.50x
1h funding
-0.000455%
Funding (annualised)
-3.98%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
1.839× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
0.920× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
0.460×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.66% · worst -1.63% · typical |Δ| 0.57%MILD BULLISH +0.27%BEST+1.66%06hWORST-1.63%07hTYPICAL |Δ|0.57%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.27%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.23% · Σ -1.83%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.58%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.19% · Σ +1.52%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.27%+2.28%-0.53%-0.07% · 12h-0.07% · 12h-0.07%12h-0.07% · 13h-0.07% · 13h-0.07%13h-0.39% · 14h-0.39% · 14h-0.39%14h1.29% · 15h1.29% · 15h1.29%15h-0.13% · 16h-0.13% · 16h-0.13%16h-0.23% · 17h-0.23% · 17h-0.23%17h0.08% · 18h0.08% · 18h0.08%18h0.74% · 19h0.74% · 19h0.74%19h-0.14% · 20h-0.14% · 20h-0.14%20h-0.30% · 21h-0.30% · 21h-0.30%21h0.33% · 22h0.33% · 22h0.33%22h1.17% · 23h1.17% · 23h1.17%23h-1.31% · 00h-1.31% · 00h-1.31%00h-0.19% · 01h-0.19% · 01h-0.19%01h0.40% · 02h0.40% · 02h0.40%02h-0.43% · 03h-0.43% · 03h-0.43%03h-0.54% · 04h-0.54% · 04h-0.54%04h0.20% · 05h0.20% · 05h0.20%05h1.66% · 06h1.66% · 06h1.66%06h★ BEST-1.63% · 07h-1.63% · 07h-1.63%07h▼ WORST0.93% · 08h0.93% · 08h0.93%08h0.15% · 09h0.15% · 09h0.15%09h-1.18% · 10h-1.18% · 10h-1.18%10h-0.07% · 11h-0.07% · 11h-0.07%11hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+1.52%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 1.66% · worst -1.63% · typical |Δ| 0.569%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.20%FINAL+0.20%MAX DD-2.06%RECOVERYONGOING · 12 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.28%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0020 · peak 1.0228 · range [0.9947, 1.0228]1.02280.9947break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0228UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.06% · moderate0%-2.06%▼ TROUGH -2.06%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -2.06%bar 14-25 · 12 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.53%bar 2-4 · 3 bars · recovered#3 -0.44%bar 10-12 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.06%)RECOVERYongoing · 12 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 1.0020 (0.20%) · max DD -2.06% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +13 / −6 (68% positive) · μ=7.24 · σ=21.78PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -1.78 (-0.41σ vs μ)52.8026.400.00-26.40-52.80μ = 7.2410.0610.0614.0114.0132.5532.5541.1541.151.061.0619.1719.1752.8052.808.918.91-8.49-8.491.821.82-0.63-0.63-16.53-16.53-47.95-47.9521.2121.21-4.73-4.732.672.6710.6510.651.681.68-1.78-1.78v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -1.782 · range [-47.95, 52.80] · μ 7.242 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=75.5700 · σ=25.1574 · range [36.0243, 116.3887] · R²=0.703▲ RISING +102.88%σ EXTREME 33.29%LAST 116.1173116.388796.297676.206556.115436.0243μ = 75.5700max 116.3887min 36.0243dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.70μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 116.12% · range [36.02%, 116.39%] · μ 75.57% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.311 · σ=0.196MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.547 (-1.20σ vs μ)0.6170.3080.000-0.308-0.617μ = -0.311-0.354-0.354-0.375-0.375-0.414-0.414-0.213-0.2130.0130.013-0.197-0.197-0.009-0.009-0.367-0.367-0.291-0.291-0.307-0.307-0.320-0.320-0.427-0.427-0.113-0.1130.0740.074-0.391-0.391-0.553-0.553-0.617-0.617-0.510-0.510-0.547-0.547v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.547 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.1279
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9380
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
11.9350
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0354
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.5162
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0078
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.1433
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8861
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3798
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0859
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.3373
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0194
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.289 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.91e-5 · top T=3.43h (43.8%) · top-3 cover 74.3%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈3.4cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)3.1e-42.3e-41.6e-47.8e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 7.75e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 7.75e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.86e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.86e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.38e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.38e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.66e-8 · 0.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.66e-8 · 0.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.66e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.66e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.88e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.88e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.11e-4 · 43.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.11e-4 · 43.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.38e-5 · 10.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.38e-5 · 10.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.37e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.37e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.15e-4 · 16.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.15e-4 · 16.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.01e-4 · 14.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.01e-4 · 14.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.98e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.98e-6 · 0.6% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=2.40h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 43.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.097e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -2.39× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.05%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.05%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-2.39×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.4×2.8×4.2×5.6×7.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -0.98400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.000
annualized -0.98
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -373% · APY -99% · Sharpe -2.98σ ann 125% · Sortino -3.50 · n 4999
-448%-328%-209%-89%31%150%-373.3%APR (simple)-98.9%APY (compound)125.1%Ann. vol σ-298.4%Sharpe (ann)-350.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0690.0710.0730.0750.0760.078t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:00:26 UTC
Snapshot age
2.4s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:00:29 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
7a71919ce4f1bbbe3fd6f4bd35b9f1fb5eaf0f76b608cd9579cb3cbc13cbafe9 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$904
bid $582 · ask $322
Depth within 10bp
$5.52K
bid $2.13K · ask $3.40K
Depth within 50bp
$27.54K
bid $12.42K · ask $15.12K
Mid price
0.072546
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.141
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.281
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-hyper/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0725865.57bp0.0725943FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.07266616.50bp0.07276813FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.07273926.63bp0.07294920PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0725124.71bp0.0725014FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.07242516.72bp0.07231717FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.07239820.37bp0.07226720PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-4.545e-6
-0.00045% / hr
Annualised APR
-3.984%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
91.7d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
91.7d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE3.984%91.7d2.51y
SHORTPAY-3.984%91.7d2.51y

/api/asset/hl-hyper/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$5.00M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-hyper/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.374 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$3.40M
real volume
Sell weight
$1.55M
real volume
Net delta
$1.85M
buyers net
Imbalance
37.39%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
37.4%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-hyper/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 1.78% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 07:00:00Z4.0h0.073926→0.0726071.784%5
#22026-06-14 00:00:00Z2.0h0.074079→0.0729761.489%3
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z1.0h0.073270→0.0725630.965%2

/api/asset/hl-hyper/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
125.11%
σ per bar = 0.000546
Mean return (annualised)
-373.31%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-2.98
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.16%
peak 0.07 → trough 0.07 over 954 bars

/api/asset/hl-hyper/risk · same metrics, JSON