HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

IMX

IMX-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-imx · fresh · feed 8s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 3.05%
realized vol (ann.)
69.96%
max drawdown
1.44%
sharpe
44.25
ulcer index
0.71%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.54%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
4344.97
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.35%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.09
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
2292.23
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.09
upside/downside
roll spread
0.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
3.05%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 33%
  • 24h change +3.05%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 9.7bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-imx/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH7.6s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.144
24h Δ · live
3.05%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
IMX · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1405 · σ=0.0016 · range [0.1384, 0.1438] · R²=0.441▲ RISING +3.56%σ NORMAL 1.13%LAST 0.14370.14380.14250.14110.13980.1384μ = 0.1405max 0.1438min 0.1384dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.44μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.14
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=869,039 · μ=34761.5 · σ=23311.0 · CV=0.67STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=14030,58361,16791,750122,334μ = 34762122,333.650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 122334 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
7.6s
$mark $
$0.1435
$mid $
$0.1435
◉prev-day close
$0.1393
Δ24h Δ %
+3.052%
$24h vol $
$117.20k
◐open interest $
$2.29M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1405 · σ=0.0016 · range [0.1384, 0.1438] · R²=0.441▲ RISING +3.56%σ NORMAL 1.13%LAST 0.14370.14380.14250.14110.13980.1384μ = 0.1405max 0.1438min 0.1384dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.44μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1435 · 24h 3.05% · range $[0.1384, 0.1438]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 15 · down 10 (60% up) · range [0.1380, 0.1445] · σ=0.0016 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=47%BULLISH +3.47%CLOSE 0.1437 vs OPEN 0.1389 (+3.47%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.14370.14450.14290.14130.13960.1380μ close = 0.1405O0.139 H0.140 L0.139 C0.139 (-0.09%)O0.139 H0.140 L0.139 C0.139 (-0.09%)O0.139 H0.140 L0.138 C0.140 (+0.83%)O0.139 H0.140 L0.138 C0.140 (+0.83%)1.3%O0.140 H0.142 L0.139 C0.142 (+1.28%)O0.140 H0.142 L0.139 C0.142 (+1.28%)O0.141 H0.142 L0.140 C0.140 (-0.65%)O0.141 H0.142 L0.140 C0.140 (-0.65%)O0.140 H0.141 L0.140 C0.140 (-0.01%)O0.140 H0.141 L0.140 C0.140 (-0.01%)O0.140 H0.141 L0.140 C0.140 (-0.53%)O0.140 H0.141 L0.140 C0.140 (-0.53%)O0.140 H0.140 L0.139 C0.140 (+0.27%)O0.140 H0.140 L0.139 C0.140 (+0.27%)O0.140 H0.140 L0.139 C0.139 (-0.46%)O0.140 H0.140 L0.139 C0.139 (-0.46%)O0.139 H0.139 L0.138 C0.139 (-0.47%)O0.139 H0.139 L0.138 C0.139 (-0.47%)O0.139 H0.139 L0.138 C0.139 (+0.41%)O0.139 H0.139 L0.138 C0.139 (+0.41%)O0.139 H0.139 L0.138 C0.138 (-0.40%)O0.139 H0.139 L0.138 C0.138 (-0.40%)O0.138 H0.139 L0.138 C0.139 (+0.25%)O0.138 H0.139 L0.138 C0.139 (+0.25%)O0.139 H0.139 L0.139 C0.139 (+0.40%)O0.139 H0.139 L0.139 C0.139 (+0.40%)O0.139 H0.140 L0.139 C0.139 (+0.01%)O0.139 H0.140 L0.139 C0.139 (+0.01%)O0.139 H0.140 L0.139 C0.140 (+0.22%)O0.139 H0.140 L0.139 C0.140 (+0.22%)O0.140 H0.140 L0.139 C0.140 (+0.13%)O0.140 H0.140 L0.139 C0.140 (+0.13%)O0.140 H0.140 L0.139 C0.140 (+0.09%)O0.140 H0.140 L0.139 C0.140 (+0.09%)O0.140 H0.142 L0.140 C0.142 (+1.27%)O0.140 H0.142 L0.140 C0.142 (+1.27%)O0.142 H0.143 L0.141 C0.141 (-0.44%)O0.142 H0.143 L0.141 C0.141 (-0.44%)O0.141 H0.142 L0.141 C0.142 (+0.71%)O0.141 H0.142 L0.141 C0.142 (+0.71%)O0.142 H0.142 L0.142 C0.142 (-0.15%)O0.142 H0.142 L0.142 C0.142 (-0.15%)O0.142 H0.143 L0.141 C0.142 (+0.44%)O0.142 H0.143 L0.141 C0.142 (+0.44%)O0.143 H0.144 L0.142 C0.144 (+0.88%)O0.143 H0.144 L0.142 C0.144 (+0.88%)O0.144 H0.145 L0.143 C0.143 (-0.79%)O0.144 H0.145 L0.143 C0.143 (-0.79%)O0.143 H0.144 L0.143 C0.144 (+0.50%)O0.143 H0.144 L0.143 C0.144 (+0.50%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=869,039 · μ=34761.5 · σ=23311.0 · CV=0.67STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=14030,58361,16791,750122,334μ = 3476238,220.1 · 31.2% peak38,220.1 · 31.2% peak46,184.5 · 37.8% peak46,184.5 · 37.8% peak20,615 · 16.9% peak20,615 · 16.9% peak41,872.2 · 34.2% peak41,872.2 · 34.2% peak32,541 · 26.6% peak32,541 · 26.6% peak31,450.9 · 25.7% peak31,450.9 · 25.7% peak15,492.4 · 12.7% peak15,492.4 · 12.7% peak20,400.4 · 16.7% peak20,400.4 · 16.7% peak47,082.3 · 38.5% peak47,082.3 · 38.5% peak37,928.3 · 31.0% peak37,928.3 · 31.0% peak42,610 · 34.8% peak42,610 · 34.8% peak12,243.9 · 10.0% peak12,243.9 · 10.0% peak11,264.1 · 9.2% peak11,264.1 · 9.2% peak122,333.6122,333.6 · 100.0% peak122,333.6 · 100.0% peak28,480.3 · 23.3% peak28,480.3 · 23.3% peak12,220.5 · 10.0% peak12,220.5 · 10.0% peak19,296.6 · 15.8% peak19,296.6 · 15.8% peak47,715.9 · 39.0% peak47,715.9 · 39.0% peak29,463.5 · 24.1% peak29,463.5 · 24.1% peak15,812 · 12.9% peak15,812 · 12.9% peak45,431.7 · 37.1% peak45,431.7 · 37.1% peak54,913.9 · 44.9% peak54,913.9 · 44.9% peak55,900.2 · 45.7% peak55,900.2 · 45.7% peak32,943.3 · 26.9% peak32,943.3 · 26.9% peak6,622 · 5.4% peak6,622 · 5.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 869039 · peak 122334 · CV 0.67

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0014 · σ=0.0058 · skew=0.10 (symmetric) · kurt=-1.07 (platykurtic (thin tails))43210 2-77.82bpbin -77.82bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -77.82bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 2-60.49bpbin -60.49bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -60.49bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 3-43.17bpbin -43.17bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -43.17bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 1-25.84bpbin -25.84bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -25.84bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1-8.52bpbin -8.52bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -8.52bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 48.81bpbin 8.81bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 8.81bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 226.14bpbin 26.14bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 26.14bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 343.46bpbin 43.46bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 43.46bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 160.79bpbin 60.79bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 60.79bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 178.11bpbin 78.11bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 78.11bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 295.44bpbin 95.44bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 95.44bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 2112.77bpbin 112.77bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 112.77bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 15 · negative 9
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.14 · kurt=-0.89 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1435
Mid price
$0.1435
24h change
+3.05%
Mark–mid spread
0.70 bps
Prev-day close
$0.1393

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.61)
μ MEAN0.1405$95% CI: [0.1399$, 0.1411$]
σ STD DEV0.0016$σ² = 0.025×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.13%
med MEDIAN0.1400$Q₁ 0.1393$ · Q₃ 0.1417$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0054$ · IQR 0.0024$ (1.349σ→0.0021$)
min 0.1384$Q₁ 0.1393$med 0.1400$Q₃ 0.1417$max 0.1438$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.608right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.860mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.34
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.90
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.40
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=22.85
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.145738%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.244
σᵣ STD / h0.597062%σ²ᵣ = 0.356×10⁻⁴ · CV = 4.10×
σ ANNUALISED55.88%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.597%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)22.85excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)25.95strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.15approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.81mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.14
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+1276.66%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.73%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.733%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.843%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.816%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.29%8h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.733%VaR₉₉−0.843%ES₉₅−0.816%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 8h duration
PEAK14.17$
−2.29% drawdown over 8h
13.84$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.11× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.15× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.35% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
66.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.962 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.1440
Bollinger MA
$0.1406
Bollinger lower
$0.1372

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.272within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.150lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.998strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+4.260significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.998
H = 0.998STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.272k=2+0.150k=3+0.051k=4-0.101k=5+0.2150+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.26)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.26)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$117.20k
Open interest (USD)
$2.29M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.05x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.21% · worst -0.86% · typical |Δ| 0.49%BULLISH SESSION +3.50%BEST+1.21%04hWORST-0.86%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.49%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+3.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.22% · Σ +1.77%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.32% · Σ +2.54%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.10% · Σ -0.81%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +3.50%+3.55%-0.25%0.90% · 12h0.90% · 12h0.90%12h1.16% · 13h1.16% · 13h1.16%13h-0.86% · 14h-0.86% · 14h-0.86%14h▼ WORST-0.01% · 15h-0.01% · 15h-0.01%15h-0.50% · 16h-0.50% · 16h-0.50%16h0.09% · 17h0.09% · 17h0.09%17h-0.53% · 18h-0.53% · 18h-0.53%18h-0.39% · 19h-0.39% · 19h-0.39%19h0.41% · 20h0.41% · 20h0.41%20h-0.53% · 21h-0.53% · 21h-0.53%21h0.28% · 22h0.28% · 22h0.28%22h0.35% · 23h0.35% · 23h0.35%23h0.09% · 00h0.09% · 00h0.09%00h0.05% · 01h0.05% · 01h0.05%01h0.26% · 02h0.26% · 02h0.26%02h0.07% · 03h0.07% · 03h0.07%03h1.21% · 04h1.21% · 04h1.21%04h★ BEST-0.35% · 05h-0.35% · 05h-0.35%05h0.68% · 06h0.68% · 06h0.68%06h-0.24% · 07h-0.24% · 07h-0.24%07h0.42% · 08h0.42% · 08h0.42%08h0.99% · 09h0.99% · 09h0.99%09h-0.77% · 10h-0.77% · 10h-0.77%10h0.71% · 11h0.71% · 11h0.71%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+2.54%)RUNSup max 7 · down max 3BREADTH63% up · 38% down
15 up bars · 9 down · best 1.21% · worst -0.86% · typical |Δ| 0.494%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +3.51%FINAL+3.51%MAX DD-2.30%RECOVERYONGOING · 16 barsMAX RUN-UP+3.58%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0351 · peak 1.0358 · range [0.9973, 1.0358]1.03580.9973break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0358UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.30% · moderate0%-2.30%▼ TROUGH -2.30%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.30%bar 4-19 · 16 bars · recovered#2 -0.77%bar 24-25 · 2 bars · ONGOING#3 -0.24%bar 21-21 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.30%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 1.0351 (3.51%) · max DD -2.30% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +13 / −6 (68% positive) · μ=18.21 · σ=51.66PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 41.68 (+0.45σ vs μ)132.7566.370.00-66.37-132.75μ = 18.2115.7015.70-14.02-14.02-96.31-96.31-37.99-37.99-56.72-56.72-24.57-24.57-13.83-13.838.088.0829.2429.2424.1424.14132.75132.7571.4671.4639.4739.4754.4854.4843.1743.1746.9246.9265.8565.8516.5416.5441.6841.68v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 41.678 · range [-96.31, 132.75] · μ 18.213 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=46.3646 · σ=15.3497 · range [12.1680, 73.3969] · R²=0.043▼ FALLING -14.90%σ EXTREME 33.11%LAST 62.463473.396958.089742.782527.475212.1680μ = 46.3646max 73.3969min 12.1680dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 62.46% · range [12.17%, 73.40%] · μ 46.36% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.435 · σ=0.220MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.611 (-0.80σ vs μ)0.7480.3740.000-0.374-0.748μ = -0.4350.0060.006-0.483-0.483-0.568-0.568-0.381-0.381-0.537-0.537-0.556-0.556-0.229-0.229-0.518-0.518-0.448-0.448-0.141-0.141-0.082-0.082-0.124-0.124-0.512-0.512-0.683-0.683-0.709-0.709-0.748-0.748-0.464-0.464-0.473-0.473-0.611-0.611v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.611 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.7462
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6886
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.5622
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4728
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.7268
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8333
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.3350
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7377
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5642
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0272
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.2938
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1957
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.606 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.42e-5 · top T=2.18h (25.2%) · top-3 cover 50.7%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.0e-47.7e-55.2e-52.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.96e-5 · 12.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.96e-5 · 12.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.20e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.20e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.93e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.93e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.09e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.09e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.30e-5 · 8.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.30e-5 · 8.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.36e-5 · 13.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.36e-5 · 13.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.72e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.72e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.38e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.38e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.12e-5 · 12.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.12e-5 · 12.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.31e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.31e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.03e-4 · 25.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.03e-4 · 25.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.16e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.16e-7 · 0.1% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.18h#2T=4.00h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 25.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.102e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 4.33× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 4.24× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.07%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.07%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
4.33×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
4.24×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
2.17×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
1.08×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 1.06× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe 3.49400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 1.06× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.002
annualized 3.49
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.07%
VaR 95%5%
0.06%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.10%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.2%
0.92×0.96×0.99×1.02×1.06×1.09×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 986% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 6.47σ ann 153% · Sortino 4.91 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%240%480%720%960%1200%986.4%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)152.5%Ann. vol σ646.7%Sharpe (ann)490.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1310.1350.1390.1430.1470.150t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:40:39 UTC
Snapshot age
7.6s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:40:47 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
5a4099036b8a02e00599c86768ab4b0ba7d6c31d50b3b171a0b30af49a26dabd · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$2.08K
bid $1.15K · ask $928
Depth within 50bp
$37.15K
bid $27.47K · ask $9.67K
Mid price
0.143520
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
13.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.150
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.123
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-imx/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1436368.06bp0.1437803FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.14401634.56bp0.14459013FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.145877164.21bp0.14804020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1434147.40bp0.1434102FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.14307930.73bp0.1429208FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.14268758.04bp0.14136020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-imx/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$869.04K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-imx/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.221 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
15 / 9
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$507.02K
real volume
Sell weight
$323.80K
real volume
Net delta
$183.23K
buyers net
Imbalance
22.05%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
22.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-imx/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 1.44% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 18:00:00Z3.0h0.140450→0.1384301.438%4
#22026-06-19 14:00:00Z2.0h0.141680→0.1397501.362%3
#32026-06-20 10:00:00Z0ms0.143800→0.1427000.765%1

/api/asset/hl-imx/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
152.53%
σ per bar = 0.000665
Mean return (annualised)
986.37%
μ per bar = 0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
6.47
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.76%
peak 0.14 → trough 0.14 over 475 bars

/api/asset/hl-imx/risk · same metrics, JSON