HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

IP

IP-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-ip · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 2.24%
realized vol (ann.)
48.67%
max drawdown
1.09%
sharpe
17.54
ulcer index
0.43%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.34%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
1982.57
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.90%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.03
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
947.86
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.03
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
2.24%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 30%
  • 24h change +2.24%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ip/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.293
24h Δ · live
2.24%
24h vol · live
$1.1M
IP · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.2971 · σ=0.0056 · range [0.2873, 0.3069] · R²=0.045▲ RISING +1.58%σ NORMAL 1.87%LAST 0.29310.30690.30200.29710.29220.2873μ = 0.2971max 0.3069min 0.2873dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.29
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=3,579,353 · μ=143174.1 · σ=312324.9 · CV=2.18BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=50400,048800,0951,200,1431,600,190μ = 1431741,600,190.250%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1600190 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.3s
$mark $
$0.2931
$mid $
$0.2931
◉prev-day close
$0.2867
Δ24h Δ %
+2.236%
$24h vol $
$1.06M
◐open interest $
$2.25M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.2971 · σ=0.0056 · range [0.2873, 0.3069] · R²=0.045▲ RISING +1.58%σ NORMAL 1.87%LAST 0.29310.30690.30200.29710.29220.2873μ = 0.2971max 0.3069min 0.2873dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.2931 · 24h 2.24% · range $[0.2873, 0.3069]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [0.2863, 0.3104] · σ=0.0056 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=46%BULLISH +2.26%CLOSE 0.2931 vs OPEN 0.2867 (+2.26%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.29310.31040.30440.29830.29230.2863μ close = 0.2971O0.287 H0.290 L0.286 C0.289 (+0.67%)O0.287 H0.290 L0.286 C0.289 (+0.67%)O0.288 H0.290 L0.287 C0.289 (+0.10%)O0.288 H0.290 L0.287 C0.289 (+0.10%)O0.289 H0.289 L0.287 C0.287 (-0.53%)O0.289 H0.289 L0.287 C0.287 (-0.53%)4.0%O0.287 H0.301 L0.287 C0.299 (+4.04%)O0.287 H0.301 L0.287 C0.299 (+4.04%)O0.299 H0.304 L0.296 C0.304 (+1.59%)O0.299 H0.304 L0.296 C0.304 (+1.59%)O0.303 H0.307 L0.299 C0.303 (+0.01%)O0.303 H0.307 L0.299 C0.303 (+0.01%)O0.304 H0.309 L0.303 C0.305 (+0.48%)O0.304 H0.309 L0.303 C0.305 (+0.48%)O0.305 H0.306 L0.302 C0.303 (-0.83%)O0.305 H0.306 L0.302 C0.303 (-0.83%)O0.303 H0.305 L0.302 C0.302 (-0.19%)O0.303 H0.305 L0.302 C0.302 (-0.19%)O0.302 H0.302 L0.300 C0.302 (+0.03%)O0.302 H0.302 L0.300 C0.302 (+0.03%)O0.302 H0.304 L0.300 C0.304 (+0.61%)O0.302 H0.304 L0.300 C0.304 (+0.61%)O0.304 H0.310 L0.304 C0.307 (+0.92%)O0.304 H0.310 L0.304 C0.307 (+0.92%)O0.307 H0.307 L0.301 C0.301 (-1.68%)O0.307 H0.307 L0.301 C0.301 (-1.68%)O0.301 H0.302 L0.297 C0.298 (-1.15%)O0.301 H0.302 L0.297 C0.298 (-1.15%)O0.298 H0.299 L0.296 C0.297 (-0.42%)O0.298 H0.299 L0.296 C0.297 (-0.42%)O0.297 H0.298 L0.294 C0.295 (-0.82%)O0.297 H0.298 L0.294 C0.295 (-0.82%)O0.294 H0.296 L0.293 C0.295 (+0.32%)O0.294 H0.296 L0.293 C0.295 (+0.32%)O0.295 H0.298 L0.293 C0.294 (-0.66%)O0.295 H0.298 L0.293 C0.294 (-0.66%)O0.294 H0.295 L0.292 C0.295 (+0.30%)O0.294 H0.295 L0.292 C0.295 (+0.30%)O0.295 H0.296 L0.293 C0.293 (-0.66%)O0.295 H0.296 L0.293 C0.293 (-0.66%)O0.293 H0.293 L0.292 C0.293 (-0.05%)O0.293 H0.293 L0.292 C0.293 (-0.05%)O0.293 H0.295 L0.293 C0.293 (+0.17%)O0.293 H0.295 L0.293 C0.293 (+0.17%)O0.293 H0.295 L0.292 C0.295 (+0.51%)O0.293 H0.295 L0.292 C0.295 (+0.51%)O0.294 H0.295 L0.293 C0.293 (-0.39%)O0.294 H0.295 L0.293 C0.293 (-0.39%)O0.293 H0.293 L0.293 C0.293 (+0.02%)O0.293 H0.293 L0.293 C0.293 (+0.02%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=3,579,353 · μ=143174.1 · σ=312324.9 · CV=2.18BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=50400,048800,0951,200,1431,600,190μ = 14317428,066.8 · 1.8% peak28,066.8 · 1.8% peak34,782.9 · 2.2% peak34,782.9 · 2.2% peak13,135.4 · 0.8% peak13,135.4 · 0.8% peak1,600,190.21,600,190.2 · 100.0% peak1,600,190.2 · 100.0% peak185,538.9 · 11.6% peak185,538.9 · 11.6% peak228,549.7 · 14.3% peak228,549.7 · 14.3% peak98,578.8 · 6.2% peak98,578.8 · 6.2% peak68,571.5 · 4.3% peak68,571.5 · 4.3% peak61,146.8 · 3.8% peak61,146.8 · 3.8% peak30,974.9 · 1.9% peak30,974.9 · 1.9% peak26,028.6 · 1.6% peak26,028.6 · 1.6% peak109,172.9 · 6.8% peak109,172.9 · 6.8% peak95,605.8 · 6.0% peak95,605.8 · 6.0% peak322,054.5 · 20.1% peak322,054.5 · 20.1% peak147,738.2 · 9.2% peak147,738.2 · 9.2% peak75,541.2 · 4.7% peak75,541.2 · 4.7% peak65,205.8 · 4.1% peak65,205.8 · 4.1% peak64,611.7 · 4.0% peak64,611.7 · 4.0% peak31,028.4 · 1.9% peak31,028.4 · 1.9% peak65,551 · 4.1% peak65,551 · 4.1% peak85,417.3 · 5.3% peak85,417.3 · 5.3% peak12,248.4 · 0.8% peak12,248.4 · 0.8% peak29,015.5 · 1.8% peak29,015.5 · 1.8% peak100,374.3 · 6.3% peak100,374.3 · 6.3% peak223.1 · 0.0% peak223.1 · 0.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 3579353 · peak 1600190 · CV 2.18

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0006 · σ=0.0101 · skew=1.74 (right-skewed) · kurt=4.18 (leptokurtic (fat tails))75420 1-157.87bpbin -157.87bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -157.87bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 1-110.62bpbin -110.62bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -110.62bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 6-63.38bpbin -63.38bp · n=6 · 85.7% peakbin -63.38bp · n=6 · 85.7% peak 7-16.14bpbin -16.14bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin -16.14bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 431.11bpbin 31.11bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin 31.11bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak 378.35bpbin 78.35bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin 78.35bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak125.59bp 1172.84bpbin 172.84bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 172.84bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak220.08bp267.32bp314.57bp 1361.81bpbin 361.81bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 361.81bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.68 · kurt=4.41 · near 15 / mid 8 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.94 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+1.52σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.2931
Mid price
$0.2931
24h change
+2.24%
Mark–mid spread
0.34 bps
Prev-day close
$0.2867

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.22)
μ MEAN0.2971$95% CI: [0.2949$, 0.2993$]
σ STD DEV0.0056$σ² = 0.309×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.87%
med MEDIAN0.2952$Q₁ 0.2932$ · Q₃ 0.3022$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0196$ · IQR 0.0090$ (1.349σ→0.0075$)
min 0.2873$Q₁ 0.2932$med 0.2952$Q₃ 0.3022$max 0.3069$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.069approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.219platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.34
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.83
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.53
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=5.61
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.065325%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.060
σᵣ STD / h1.089009%σ²ᵣ = 1.186×10⁻⁴ · CV = 16.67×
σ ANNUALISED101.93%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.089%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)5.61excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)8.45strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.80right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂5.79leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.51
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+572.25%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.12%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.121%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.666%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.491%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.59%9h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.121%VaR₉₉−1.666%ES₉₅−1.491%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 9h duration
PEAK30.69$
−4.59% drawdown over 9h
29.28$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.33× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.49× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.81% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
53.2 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.248 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.3077
Bollinger MA
$0.2980
Bollinger lower
$0.2884

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.153within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.026lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.007strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.042fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.007
H = 1.007STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.153k=2-0.026k=3+0.033k=4-0.134k=5+0.0830+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.04)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.04)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.06M
Open interest (USD)
$2.25M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.47x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
5.508× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
2.754× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
1.377×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.85% · worst -1.81% · typical |Δ| 0.71%MILD BULLISH +1.57%BEST+3.85%14hWORST-1.81%23hTYPICAL |Δ|0.71%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.57%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.36% · Σ -2.88%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.64% · Σ +5.15%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.09% · Σ -0.70%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.57%+6.16%-0.44%0.07% · 12h0.07% · 12h0.07%12h-0.51% · 13h-0.51% · 13h-0.51%13h3.85% · 14h3.85% · 14h3.85%14h★ BEST1.63% · 15h1.63% · 15h1.63%15h-0.16% · 16h-0.16% · 16h-0.16%16h0.78% · 17h0.78% · 17h0.78%17h-0.85% · 18h-0.85% · 18h-0.85%18h-0.20% · 19h-0.20% · 19h-0.20%19h-0.15% · 20h-0.15% · 20h-0.15%20h0.71% · 21h0.71% · 21h0.71%21h0.99% · 22h0.99% · 22h0.99%22h-1.81% · 23h-1.81% · 23h-1.81%23h▼ WORST-1.17% · 00h-1.17% · 00h-1.17%00h-0.38% · 01h-0.38% · 01h-0.38%01h-0.75% · 02h-0.75% · 02h-0.75%02h0.21% · 03h0.21% · 03h0.21%03h-0.55% · 04h-0.55% · 04h-0.55%04h0.34% · 05h0.34% · 05h0.34%05h-0.52% · 06h-0.52% · 06h-0.52%06h-0.06% · 07h-0.06% · 07h-0.06%07h0.16% · 08h0.16% · 08h0.16%08h0.52% · 09h0.52% · 09h0.52%09h-0.56% · 10h-0.56% · 10h-0.56%10h-0.02% · 11h-0.02% · 11h-0.02%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+5.15%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 3.85% · worst -1.81% · typical |Δ| 0.706%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.44%FINAL+1.44%MAX DD-4.62%RECOVERYONGOING · 13 barsMAX RUN-UP+6.25%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0144 · peak 1.0625 · range [0.9956, 1.0625]1.06250.9956break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0625UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.62% · moderate0%-4.62%▼ TROUGH -4.62%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -4.62%bar 13-25 · 13 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.19%bar 8-11 · 4 bars · recovered#3 -0.51%bar 3-3 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.62%)RECOVERYongoing · 13 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 1.0144 (1.44%) · max DD -4.62% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-14.16 · σ=40.33UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -18.14 (-0.10σ vs μ)100.1650.080.00-50.08-100.16μ = -14.1654.5954.5942.1242.1246.0446.0418.5618.563.243.2427.6827.68-19.92-19.92-23.67-23.67-26.35-26.35-34.71-34.71-45.55-45.55-100.16-100.16-62.55-62.55-58.19-58.19-46.54-46.54-17.19-17.19-4.05-4.05-4.19-4.19-18.14-18.14v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -18.142 · range [-100.16, 54.59] · μ -14.157 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=80.7723 · σ=41.8277 · range [35.8317, 164.2003] · R²=0.682▼ FALLING -74.66%σ EXTREME 51.78%LAST 38.3433164.2003132.1081100.016067.923835.8317μ = 80.7723max 164.2003min 35.8317dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.68μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 38.34% · range [35.83%, 164.20%] · μ 80.77% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.186 · σ=0.299MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.205 (-0.06σ vs μ)0.7700.3850.000-0.385-0.770μ = -0.186-0.117-0.117-0.141-0.1410.2400.240-0.208-0.208-0.359-0.3590.0730.073-0.143-0.1430.1400.1400.1540.1540.1090.109-0.268-0.2680.1980.198-0.269-0.269-0.646-0.646-0.770-0.770-0.704-0.704-0.260-0.260-0.359-0.359-0.205-0.205v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.205 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
46.4729
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.4744
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9155
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.8022
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3894
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.5732
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5665
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2306
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3034
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.9446
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3449
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.287 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.14e-4 · top T=6.00h (21.0%) · top-3 cover 54.4%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.9e-42.2e-41.4e-47.2e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.55e-4 · 18.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.55e-4 · 18.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.19e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.19e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.53e-4 · 11.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.53e-4 · 11.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.87e-4 · 21.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.87e-4 · 21.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.94e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.94e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.76e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.76e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.36e-4 · 10.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.36e-4 · 10.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.59e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.59e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.01e-4 · 14.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.01e-4 · 14.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.26e-4 · 9.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.26e-4 · 9.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.54e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.54e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.86e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.86e-6 · 0.2% energy50% by T=6.0h#1 dominantT=6.00h#2T=24.00h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 6.00h (freq 0.167) · concentrates 21.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.365e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-43.84×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -21.73400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.009
annualized -21.73
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -23.17σ ann 53% · Sortino -17.80 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-2780%-2211%-1643%-1074%-505%63%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)52.8%Ann. vol σ-2316.5%Sharpe (ann)-1780.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.2800.2860.2920.2980.3040.310t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:00:57 UTC
Snapshot age
4.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:01:02 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
c27c65f50965e6440db0be798b13a64668c61046f0f56a43f2792574cb79070a · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.61K
bid $1.72K · ask $886
Depth within 10bp
$19.54K
bid $9.30K · ask $10.24K
Depth within 50bp
$66.27K
bid $29.61K · ask $36.66K
Mid price
0.293110
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.105
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.389
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ip/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.2931681.98bp0.2932603FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.2932966.33bp0.2933908FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.29352013.99bp0.29374020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.2930312.69bp0.2930302FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.2928887.59bp0.2928009FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.29269714.08bp0.29246020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-ip/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$3.58M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ip/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.234 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$2.19M
real volume
Sell weight
$1.36M
real volume
Net delta
$832.29K
buyers net
Imbalance
23.44%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
23.4%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ip/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 4.36% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 23:00:00Z5.0h0.306920→0.2935504.356%6
#22026-06-13 18:00:00Z2.0h0.305380→0.3017501.189%3
#32026-06-14 06:00:00Z1.0h0.295180→0.2928400.793%2

/api/asset/hl-ip/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
52.84%
σ per bar = 0.000230
Mean return (annualised)
-1224.07%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-23.17
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.90%
peak 0.30 → trough 0.29 over 1910 bars

/api/asset/hl-ip/risk · same metrics, JSON