HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

JUP

JUP-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-jup · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.40%
realized vol (ann.)
51.44%
max drawdown
1.17%
sharpe
-7.51
ulcer index
0.55%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.45%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-707.49
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.08%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.99
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-358.66
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.99
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.40%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -1.40%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 6.5bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-jup/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.4s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.170
24h Δ · live
-1.40%
24h vol · live
$0.8M
JUP · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1724 · σ=0.0014 · range [0.1698, 0.1744] · R²=0.602▼ FALLING -2.25%σ LOW 0.84%LAST 0.17000.17440.17320.17210.17100.1698μ = 0.1724max 0.1744min 0.1698dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.60μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.17
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=4,720,716 · μ=188828.6 · σ=121096.1 · CV=0.64STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=130138,044276,087414,131552,174μ = 188829552,17450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 552174 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.4s
$mark $
$0.1699
$mid $
$0.1701
◉prev-day close
$0.1724
Δ24h Δ %
-1.404%
$24h vol $
$816.40k
◐open interest $
$3.91M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1724 · σ=0.0014 · range [0.1698, 0.1744] · R²=0.602▼ FALLING -2.25%σ LOW 0.84%LAST 0.17000.17440.17320.17210.17100.1698μ = 0.1724max 0.1744min 0.1698dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.60μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1699 · 24h -1.40% · range $[0.1698, 0.1744]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.1692, 0.1766] · σ=0.0014 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=34%BEARISH -1.36%CLOSE 0.1700 vs OPEN 0.1724 (-1.36%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.17000.17660.17480.17290.17100.1692μ close = 0.17240.9%O0.172 H0.174 L0.172 C0.174 (+0.92%)O0.172 H0.174 L0.172 C0.174 (+0.92%)O0.174 H0.175 L0.173 C0.174 (+0.30%)O0.174 H0.175 L0.173 C0.174 (+0.30%)O0.174 H0.174 L0.172 C0.173 (-0.78%)O0.174 H0.174 L0.172 C0.173 (-0.78%)O0.173 H0.174 L0.173 C0.173 (+0.22%)O0.173 H0.174 L0.173 C0.173 (+0.22%)O0.174 H0.175 L0.173 C0.173 (-0.48%)O0.174 H0.175 L0.173 C0.173 (-0.48%)O0.173 H0.174 L0.171 C0.172 (-0.37%)O0.173 H0.174 L0.171 C0.172 (-0.37%)O0.172 H0.173 L0.171 C0.172 (-0.02%)O0.172 H0.173 L0.171 C0.172 (-0.02%)O0.172 H0.174 L0.172 C0.173 (+0.37%)O0.172 H0.174 L0.172 C0.173 (+0.37%)O0.173 H0.174 L0.173 C0.173 (+0.40%)O0.173 H0.174 L0.173 C0.173 (+0.40%)O0.173 H0.173 L0.172 C0.173 (-0.28%)O0.173 H0.173 L0.172 C0.173 (-0.28%)O0.173 H0.175 L0.173 C0.174 (+0.83%)O0.173 H0.175 L0.173 C0.174 (+0.83%)O0.175 H0.177 L0.174 C0.174 (-0.27%)O0.175 H0.177 L0.174 C0.174 (-0.27%)O0.174 H0.175 L0.173 C0.173 (-0.33%)O0.174 H0.175 L0.173 C0.173 (-0.33%)O0.173 H0.174 L0.173 C0.173 (-0.18%)O0.173 H0.174 L0.173 C0.173 (-0.18%)O0.173 H0.174 L0.173 C0.173 (+0.00%)O0.173 H0.174 L0.173 C0.173 (+0.00%)O0.173 H0.174 L0.173 C0.173 (-0.19%)O0.173 H0.174 L0.173 C0.173 (-0.19%)O0.173 H0.173 L0.172 C0.173 (+0.21%)O0.173 H0.173 L0.172 C0.173 (+0.21%)O0.173 H0.173 L0.171 C0.172 (-0.87%)O0.173 H0.173 L0.171 C0.172 (-0.87%)O0.172 H0.172 L0.170 C0.171 (-0.37%)O0.172 H0.172 L0.170 C0.171 (-0.37%)O0.171 H0.172 L0.170 C0.171 (-0.24%)O0.171 H0.172 L0.170 C0.171 (-0.24%)O0.171 H0.171 L0.170 C0.171 (+0.04%)O0.171 H0.171 L0.170 C0.171 (+0.04%)O0.170 H0.171 L0.170 C0.170 (-0.35%)O0.170 H0.171 L0.170 C0.170 (-0.35%)O0.170 H0.171 L0.169 C0.171 (+0.34%)O0.170 H0.171 L0.169 C0.171 (+0.34%)O0.170 H0.171 L0.170 C0.170 (-0.29%)O0.170 H0.171 L0.170 C0.170 (-0.29%)O0.170 H0.170 L0.170 C0.170 (+0.00%)O0.170 H0.170 L0.170 C0.170 (+0.00%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=4,720,716 · μ=188828.6 · σ=121096.1 · CV=0.64STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=130138,044276,087414,131552,174μ = 188829193,049 · 35.0% peak193,049 · 35.0% peak312,866 · 56.7% peak312,866 · 56.7% peak212,706 · 38.5% peak212,706 · 38.5% peak92,324 · 16.7% peak92,324 · 16.7% peak146,634 · 26.6% peak146,634 · 26.6% peak116,459 · 21.1% peak116,459 · 21.1% peak247,243 · 44.8% peak247,243 · 44.8% peak51,806 · 9.4% peak51,806 · 9.4% peak109,054 · 19.7% peak109,054 · 19.7% peak115,219 · 20.9% peak115,219 · 20.9% peak65,928 · 11.9% peak65,928 · 11.9% peak552,174552,174 · 100.0% peak552,174 · 100.0% peak301,314 · 54.6% peak301,314 · 54.6% peak244,986 · 44.4% peak244,986 · 44.4% peak281,746 · 51.0% peak281,746 · 51.0% peak100,504 · 18.2% peak100,504 · 18.2% peak209,998 · 38.0% peak209,998 · 38.0% peak388,086 · 70.3% peak388,086 · 70.3% peak171,466 · 31.1% peak171,466 · 31.1% peak86,923 · 15.7% peak86,923 · 15.7% peak226,044 · 40.9% peak226,044 · 40.9% peak221,413 · 40.1% peak221,413 · 40.1% peak213,479 · 38.7% peak213,479 · 38.7% peak59,085 · 10.7% peak59,085 · 10.7% peak210 · 0.0% peak210 · 0.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 4720716 · peak 552174 · CV 0.64

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0010 · σ=0.0037 · skew=0.16 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.20 (mesokurtic)54310 1-87.70bpbin -87.70bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -87.70bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-72.81bpbin -72.81bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -72.81bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-57.92bp 4-43.04bpbin -43.04bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -43.04bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 5-28.15bpbin -28.15bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -28.15bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 2-13.26bpbin -13.26bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -13.26bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 41.63bpbin 1.63bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 1.63bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 216.52bpbin 16.52bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 16.52bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 331.41bpbin 31.41bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 31.41bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 146.29bpbin 46.29bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 46.29bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak61.18bp 176.07bpbin 76.07bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 76.07bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.11 · kurt=0.09 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1699
Mid price
$0.1701
24h change
-1.40%
Mark–mid spread
12.06 bps
Prev-day close
$0.1724

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.23)
μ MEAN0.1724$95% CI: [0.1718$, 0.1730$]
σ STD DEV0.0014$σ² = 0.021×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.84%
med MEDIAN0.1729$Q₁ 0.1710$ · Q₃ 0.1735$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0045$ · IQR 0.0024$ (1.349σ→0.0019$)
min 0.1698$Q₁ 0.1710$med 0.1729$Q₃ 0.1735$max 0.1744$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.483approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.226platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.36
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.80
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.13
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-22.48
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.094976%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.240
σᵣ STD / h0.395469%σ²ᵣ = 0.156×10⁻⁴ · CV = 4.16×
σ ANNUALISED37.01%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.395%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-22.48negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-20.00downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.12approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.41mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.89
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-831.99%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.69%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.690%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.900%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.839%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.59%11h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.690%VaR₉₉−0.900%ES₉₅−0.839%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 11h duration
PEAK17.44$
−2.59% drawdown over 11h
16.98$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.22× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.30× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.66% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
34.2 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.144 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.1751
Bollinger MA
$0.1721
Bollinger lower
$0.1692

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.29 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.288within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.189lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.970strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.892significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.970
H = 0.970STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.288k=2+0.189k=3-0.063k=4+0.135k=5-0.2350+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.89)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.29 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.89)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$816.40k
Open interest (USD)
$3.91M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.21x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.84% · worst -0.95% · typical |Δ| 0.33%MILD BEARISH -2.28%BEST+0.84%21hWORST-0.95%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.33%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.28%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.21% · Σ -1.65%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.13% · Σ -1.02%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.05% · Σ +0.39%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.28%+0.24%-2.39%0.15% · 12h0.15% · 12h0.15%12h-0.73% · 13h-0.73% · 13h-0.73%13h0.30% · 14h0.30% · 14h0.30%14h-0.36% · 15h-0.36% · 15h-0.36%15h-0.37% · 16h-0.37% · 16h-0.37%16h0.05% · 17h0.05% · 17h0.05%17h0.31% · 18h0.31% · 18h0.31%18h0.37% · 19h0.37% · 19h0.37%19h-0.32% · 20h-0.32% · 20h-0.32%20h0.84% · 21h0.84% · 21h0.84%21h★ BEST-0.11% · 22h-0.11% · 22h-0.11%22h-0.37% · 23h-0.37% · 23h-0.37%23h-0.21% · 00h-0.21% · 00h-0.21%00h0.07% · 01h0.07% · 01h0.07%01h-0.20% · 02h-0.20% · 02h-0.20%02h0.16% · 03h0.16% · 03h0.16%03h-0.95% · 04h-0.95% · 04h-0.95%04h▼ WORST-0.30% · 05h-0.30% · 05h-0.30%05h-0.31% · 06h-0.31% · 06h-0.31%06h0.09% · 07h0.09% · 07h0.09%07h-0.49% · 08h-0.49% · 08h-0.49%08h0.40% · 09h0.40% · 09h0.40%09h-0.32% · 10h-0.32% · 10h-0.32%10h0.03% · 11h0.03% · 11h0.03%11hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.39%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 0.84% · worst -0.95% · typical |Δ| 0.326%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.27%)FINAL-2.27%MAX DD-2.60%RECOVERYONGOING · 14 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.23%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9773 · peak 1.0023 · range [0.9762, 1.0023]1.00230.9762break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0023UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.60% · moderate0%-2.60%▼ TROUGH -2.60%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.60%bar 12-25 · 14 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.16%bar 3-10 · 8 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.60%)RECOVERYongoing · 14 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9773 (-2.27%) · max DD -2.60% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-23.83 · σ=35.18UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -28.31 (-0.13σ vs μ)69.0934.540.00-34.54-69.09μ = -23.83-38.39-38.39-29.53-29.5313.7213.72-14.63-14.6329.8229.8243.1043.1023.4023.406.076.07-4.02-4.020.210.21-52.90-52.90-59.30-59.30-56.80-56.80-60.78-60.78-59.56-59.56-69.09-69.09-52.10-52.10-43.60-43.60-28.31-28.31v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -28.306 · range [-69.09, 43.10] · μ -23.826 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=36.9303 · σ=6.2210 · range [18.4240, 44.4768] · R²=0.023▼ FALLING -15.39%σ EXTREME 16.85%LAST 30.851544.476837.963631.450424.937218.4240μ = 36.9303max 44.4768min 18.4240dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 30.85% · range [18.42%, 44.48%] · μ 36.93% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.318 · σ=0.290MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.815 (-1.71σ vs μ)0.8150.4070.000-0.407-0.815μ = -0.318-0.700-0.700-0.299-0.2990.2650.2650.2440.244-0.341-0.341-0.732-0.732-0.389-0.389-0.325-0.325-0.257-0.257-0.003-0.003-0.167-0.167-0.313-0.313-0.270-0.270-0.284-0.284-0.324-0.324-0.460-0.460-0.201-0.201-0.677-0.677-0.815-0.815v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.815 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.2231
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8945
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.7564
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3304
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.8117
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8136
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.7169
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0860
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (17 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6475
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0183
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.6943
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4875
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.789 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.63e-5 · top T=2.00h (16.3%) · top-3 cover 47.2%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)3.2e-52.4e-51.6e-58.0e-60.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 1.46e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.46e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.57e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.57e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.15e-6 · 3.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.15e-6 · 3.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.67e-6 · 3.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.67e-6 · 3.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.26e-6 · 2.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.26e-6 · 2.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.52e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.52e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.11e-6 · 3.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.11e-6 · 3.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.96e-5 · 15.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.96e-5 · 15.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.35e-6 · 4.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.35e-6 · 4.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.09e-5 · 15.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.09e-5 · 15.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.25e-5 · 11.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.25e-5 · 11.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.19e-5 · 16.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.19e-5 · 16.3% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 16.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.958e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-82.01×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -41.25400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.018
annualized -41.25
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -41.82σ ann 51% · Sortino -28.01 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-5018%-4002%-2986%-1971%-955%61%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)51.0%Ann. vol σ-4181.8%Sharpe (ann)-2800.7%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1630.1660.1700.1730.1770.180t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:01:15 UTC
Snapshot age
4.4s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:01:19 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
24bd6e129e0cba4ac778c3e8bf79d315a17ce0d7bb402e2543dd51525122cb94 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.69K
bid $834 · ask $1.86K
Depth within 10bp
$17.15K
bid $4.12K · ask $13.03K
Depth within 50bp
$51.69K
bid $20.61K · ask $31.08K
Mid price
0.170170
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.201
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.200
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-jup/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1702363.89bp0.1702503FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.1702846.70bp0.1703209FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.17041914.64bp0.17062020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1701113.47bp0.1700603FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1700019.95bp0.16988012FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.16991415.02bp0.16977020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-jup/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$4.72M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-jup/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.200 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.81M
real volume
Sell weight
$2.72M
real volume
Net delta
$906.27K
sellers net
Imbalance
-20.02%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
20.0%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-jup/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 1.98% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z4.0h0.173260→0.1698301.980%5
#22026-06-13 15:00:00Z2.0h0.174200→0.1721901.154%3
#32026-06-13 13:00:00Z0ms0.174200→0.1729400.723%1

/api/asset/hl-jup/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
50.99%
σ per bar = 0.000222
Mean return (annualised)
-2132.41%
μ per bar = -0.000004
Sharpe (rf=0)
-41.82
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.48%
peak 0.17 → trough 0.17 over 4055 bars

/api/asset/hl-jup/risk · same metrics, JSON