HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

KAS

KAS-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-kas · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.54%
realized vol (ann.)
36.05%
max drawdown
1.53%
sharpe
-95.78
ulcer index
0.90%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.76%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-3846.32
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.50%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.80
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2308.22
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.80
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.54%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-3.74%
signalLONGconfidence 44%suggested side: BUY
  • 24h change +1.54%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 17.0bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-kas/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.6s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.030
24h Δ · live
1.54%
24h vol · live
$0.4M
KAS · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0300 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0296, 0.0303] · R²=0.294▲ RISING +1.57%σ LOW 0.60%LAST 0.03000.03030.03010.03000.02980.0296μ = 0.0300max 0.0303min 0.0296dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.29μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.03
Funding direction · live
Long fee 44.8%Short fee 55.2%SHORT FEE55.2%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.992 / 1.00 bits (99%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
44.8%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
55.2%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.000427% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=14,893,882 · μ=595755.3 · σ=1020751.8 · CV=1.71BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1401,246,8212,493,6413,740,4624,987,282μ = 5957554,987,28250%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 4987282 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.6s
$mark $
$0.03
$mid $
$0.03
◉prev-day close
$0.0296
Δ24h Δ %
+1.535%
$24h vol $
$444.33k
◐open interest $
$1.00M
%funding (1h)
-0.000427%
%funding (yr)
-3.74%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0300 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0296, 0.0303] · R²=0.294▲ RISING +1.57%σ LOW 0.60%LAST 0.03000.03030.03010.03000.02980.0296μ = 0.0300max 0.0303min 0.0296dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.29μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0300 · 24h 1.54% · range $[0.0296, 0.0303]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 16 · down 9 (64% up) · range [0.0295, 0.0304] · σ=0.0002 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=45%BULLISH +0.95%CLOSE 0.0300 vs OPEN 0.0297 (+0.95%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.03000.03040.03020.03000.02980.0295μ close = 0.0300O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.61%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.61%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.88%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.88%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.72%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.72%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.07%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.07%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.24%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.24%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.51%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.51%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.73%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.73%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.22%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.22%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.16%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.16%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.04%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.04%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.75%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.75%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.35%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.35%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.39%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.39%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.19%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.19%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.32%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.32%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.35%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.35%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.19%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.19%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.31%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.31%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.20%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.20%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.34%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.34%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.14%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.14%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.01%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.01%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.24%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.24%)-1.0%O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-1.00%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-1.00%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.05%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.05%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=14,893,882 · μ=595755.3 · σ=1020751.8 · CV=1.71BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1401,246,8212,493,6413,740,4624,987,282μ = 595755103,499 · 2.1% peak103,499 · 2.1% peak622,102 · 12.5% peak622,102 · 12.5% peak1,316,550 · 26.4% peak1,316,550 · 26.4% peak230,751 · 4.6% peak230,751 · 4.6% peak104,866 · 2.1% peak104,866 · 2.1% peak107,145 · 2.1% peak107,145 · 2.1% peak1,706,754 · 34.2% peak1,706,754 · 34.2% peak1,436,081 · 28.8% peak1,436,081 · 28.8% peak221,246 · 4.4% peak221,246 · 4.4% peak192,540 · 3.9% peak192,540 · 3.9% peak80,354 · 1.6% peak80,354 · 1.6% peak372,165 · 7.5% peak372,165 · 7.5% peak500,842 · 10.0% peak500,842 · 10.0% peak816,633 · 16.4% peak816,633 · 16.4% peak150,354 · 3.0% peak150,354 · 3.0% peak61,309 · 1.2% peak61,309 · 1.2% peak107,998 · 2.2% peak107,998 · 2.2% peak80,930 · 1.6% peak80,930 · 1.6% peak123,525 · 2.5% peak123,525 · 2.5% peak460,329 · 9.2% peak460,329 · 9.2% peak133,690 · 2.7% peak133,690 · 2.7% peak481,359 · 9.7% peak481,359 · 9.7% peak122,041 · 2.4% peak122,041 · 2.4% peak4,987,2824,987,282 · 100.0% peak4,987,282 · 100.0% peak373,537 · 7.5% peak373,537 · 7.5% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 14893882 · peak 4987282 · CV 1.71

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0006 · σ=0.0046 · skew=-0.64 (left-skewed) · kurt=0.04 (mesokurtic)43210 1-103.70bpbin -103.70bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -103.70bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1-86.42bpbin -86.42bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -86.42bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak-69.15bp 2-51.88bpbin -51.88bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -51.88bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak-34.60bp 4-17.33bpbin -17.33bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -17.33bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 3-0.05bpbin -0.05bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -0.05bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 417.22bpbin 17.22bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 17.22bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 434.50bpbin 34.50bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 34.50bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 351.77bpbin 51.77bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 51.77bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 169.04bpbin 69.04bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 69.04bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 186.32bpbin 86.32bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 86.32bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 16 · negative 8
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.66 · kurt=0.42 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.03
Mid price
$0.03
24h change
+1.54%
Mark–mid spread
0.67 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0296

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0300$95% CI: [0.0299$, 0.0300$]
σ STD DEV0.0002$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.60%
med MEDIAN0.0299$Q₁ 0.0299$ · Q₃ 0.0301$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0008$ · IQR 0.0002$ (1.349σ→0.0002$)
min 0.0296$Q₁ 0.0299$med 0.0299$Q₃ 0.0301$max 0.0303$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.081approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.043mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.20
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.42
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.37
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=12.55
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.064763%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.134
σᵣ STD / h0.482912%σ²ᵣ = 0.233×10⁻⁴ · CV = 7.46×
σ ANNUALISED45.20%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.483%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)12.55excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)10.41strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.71left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.83mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 0.83
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+567.33%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.85%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.854%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.076%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.020%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.45%8h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.854%VaR₉₉−1.076%ES₉₅−1.020%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 8h duration
PEAK3.01$
−1.45% drawdown over 8h
2.96$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.20× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.26× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.47% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
55.6 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.544 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0303
Bollinger MA
$0.0300
Bollinger lower
$0.0296

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.115within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.027lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.074strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+3.095significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.074
H = 1.074STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.115k=2+0.027k=3+0.064k=4-0.299k=5+0.1710+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.10)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.10)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$444.33k
Open interest (USD)
$1.00M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.44x
1h funding
-0.000427%
Funding (annualised)
-3.74%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.95% · worst -1.12% · typical |Δ| 0.37%BULLISH SESSION +1.55%BEST+0.95%12hWORST-1.12%10hTYPICAL |Δ|0.37%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.55%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.14% · Σ +1.10%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.11% · Σ +0.90%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.45%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.55%+2.64%0.00%0.95% · 12h0.95% · 12h0.95%12h★ BEST0.76% · 13h0.76% · 13h0.76%13h-0.17% · 14h-0.17% · 14h-0.17%14h0.14% · 15h0.14% · 15h0.14%15h-0.49% · 16h-0.49% · 16h-0.49%16h0.51% · 17h0.51% · 17h0.51%17h-0.49% · 18h-0.49% · 18h-0.49%18h-0.09% · 19h-0.09% · 19h-0.09%19h0.04% · 20h0.04% · 20h0.04%20h-0.92% · 21h-0.92% · 21h-0.92%21h0.52% · 22h0.52% · 22h0.52%22h0.45% · 23h0.45% · 23h0.45%23h-0.24% · 00h-0.24% · 00h-0.24%00h0.30% · 01h0.30% · 01h0.30%01h-0.18% · 02h-0.18% · 02h-0.18%02h0.15% · 03h0.15% · 03h0.15%03h0.30% · 04h0.30% · 04h0.30%04h0.18% · 05h0.18% · 05h0.18%05h0.40% · 06h0.40% · 06h0.40%06h0.21% · 07h0.21% · 07h0.21%07h0.05% · 08h0.05% · 08h0.05%08h0.26% · 09h0.26% · 09h0.26%09h-1.12% · 10h-1.12% · 10h-1.12%10h▼ WORST0.04% · 11h0.04% · 11h0.04%11hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+1.10%)RUNSup max 7 · down max 2BREADTH67% up · 33% down
16 up bars · 8 down · best 0.95% · worst -1.12% · typical |Δ| 0.374%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.54%FINAL+1.54%MAX DD-1.46%RECOVERYONGOING · 15 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.65%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0154 · peak 1.0265 · range [1.0000, 1.0265]1.02651.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0265UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.46% · moderate0%-1.46%▼ TROUGH -1.46%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.46%bar 4-18 · 15 bars · recovered#2 -1.12%bar 24-25 · 2 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.46%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 1.0154 (1.54%) · max DD -1.46% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=30.19 · σ=60.97MIXED EDGELAST -4.78 (-0.57σ vs μ)181.0490.520.00-90.52-181.04μ = 30.1947.4747.477.817.81-23.77-23.77-15.06-15.06-44.44-44.44-11.38-11.38-13.36-13.36-6.86-6.864.434.43-2.10-2.1048.2348.2342.7342.7332.5932.5987.0987.0982.5882.58162.36162.36181.04181.04-0.93-0.93-4.78-4.78v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -4.785 · range [-44.44, 181.04] · μ 30.191 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=37.8660 · σ=15.3815 · range [11.2393, 52.8660] · R²=0.218▼ FALLING -0.79%σ EXTREME 40.62%LAST 51.795552.866042.459432.052721.646011.2393μ = 37.8660max 52.8660min 11.2393dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.22μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 51.80% · range [11.24%, 52.87%] · μ 37.87% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.321 · σ=0.243MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.167 (+0.64σ vs μ)0.8000.4000.000-0.400-0.800μ = -0.3210.0660.066-0.533-0.533-0.800-0.800-0.762-0.762-0.450-0.450-0.523-0.523-0.186-0.186-0.286-0.286-0.315-0.315-0.312-0.312-0.214-0.214-0.596-0.596-0.385-0.385-0.163-0.1630.0650.065-0.211-0.211-0.258-0.258-0.075-0.075-0.167-0.167v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.167 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
2.6759
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2624
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.2632
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5138
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.9860
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0379
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.5743
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1154
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4248
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0665
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.2547
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2096
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.618 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.34e-5 · top T=2.67h (27.1%) · top-3 cover 52.2%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)7.6e-55.7e-53.8e-51.9e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 8.04e-6 · 2.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.04e-6 · 2.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.34e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.34e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.42e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.42e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.10e-5 · 11.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.10e-5 · 11.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.96e-5 · 14.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.96e-5 · 14.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.15e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.15e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.90e-5 · 10.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.90e-5 · 10.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.56e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.56e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.60e-5 · 27.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.60e-5 · 27.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.02e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.02e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.15e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.15e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.46e-5 · 8.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.46e-5 · 8.8% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=4.80h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 27.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.805e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-43.21×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -41.13400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.018
annualized -41.13
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -35.90σ ann 83% · Sortino -24.02 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-4308%-3427%-2545%-1663%-782%100%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)83.1%Ann. vol σ-3590.1%Sharpe (ann)-2401.6%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0290.0290.0300.0310.0310.032t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:41:15 UTC
Snapshot age
1.6s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:41:19 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
0c3e1135c8866aaf3af1b18a4c07e3601fa5356a5af3a0d62738238e16bd3b2c · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.54K
bid $848 · ask $689
Depth within 10bp
$9.05K
bid $3.63K · ask $5.42K
Depth within 50bp
$71.99K
bid $20.69K · ask $51.30K
Mid price
0.030033
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.397
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.021
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-kas/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0300454.20bp0.0300483FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.03006410.58bp0.03009314FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.03010524.23bp0.03013220PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0300213.69bp0.0300134FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.02998714.99bp0.02995510FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.02995226.75bp0.02986620PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-4.269e-6
-0.00043% / hr
Annualised APR
-3.742%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
97.6d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
97.6d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE3.742%97.6d2.67y
SHORTPAY-3.742%97.6d2.67y

/api/asset/hl-kas/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$14.89M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-kas/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.074 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
16 / 8
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$6.85M
real volume
Sell weight
$7.94M
real volume
Net delta
$1.09M
sellers net
Imbalance
-7.38%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
7.4%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-kas/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 1.44% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 19:00:00Z2.0h0.030063→0.0296311.437%3
#22026-06-20 10:00:00Z1.0h0.030347→0.0300081.117%2
#32026-06-19 16:00:00Z0ms0.030067→0.0299090.525%1

/api/asset/hl-kas/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
83.08%
σ per bar = 0.000362
Mean return (annualised)
-2982.78%
μ per bar = -0.000006
Sharpe (rf=0)
-35.90
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.19%
peak 0.03 → trough 0.03 over 1997 bars

/api/asset/hl-kas/risk · same metrics, JSON