HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

LIT

LIT-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-lit · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.41%
realized vol (ann.)
87.64%
max drawdown
1.74%
sharpe
40.08
ulcer index
0.68%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.55%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.05%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
5185.35
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.53%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.06
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
2290.81
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.06
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.41%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 30%
  • 24h change +1.41%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-lit/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.9s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$1.597
24h Δ · live
1.41%
24h vol · live
$13.6M
LIT · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=1.6095 · σ=0.0202 · range [1.5806, 1.6446] · R²=0.226▲ RISING +0.20%σ NORMAL 1.26%LAST 1.59791.64461.62861.61261.59661.5806μ = 1.6095max 1.6446min 1.5806dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.23μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $1.60
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=8,378,846 · μ=335153.8 · σ=763700.0 · CV=2.28BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=150984,9091,969,8182,954,7273,939,636μ = 3351543,939,63650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 3939636 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.9s
$mark $
$1.597
$mid $
$1.5973
◉prev-day close
$1.5748
Δ24h Δ %
+1.410%
$24h vol $
$13.60M
◐open interest $
$60.43M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=1.6095 · σ=0.0202 · range [1.5806, 1.6446] · R²=0.226▲ RISING +0.20%σ NORMAL 1.26%LAST 1.59791.64461.62861.61261.59661.5806μ = 1.6095max 1.6446min 1.5806dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.23μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $1.5970 · 24h 1.41% · range $[1.5806, 1.6446]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [1.5663, 1.6595] · σ=0.0202 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=39%BULLISH +1.47%CLOSE 1.5979 vs OPEN 1.5748 (+1.47%)&#9650; CLOSE 1.59791.65951.63621.61291.58961.5663μ close = 1.6095O1.575 H1.595 L1.566 C1.595 (+1.26%)O1.575 H1.595 L1.566 C1.595 (+1.26%)O1.594 H1.621 L1.585 C1.600 (+0.41%)O1.594 H1.621 L1.585 C1.600 (+0.41%)O1.600 H1.601 L1.582 C1.592 (-0.51%)O1.600 H1.601 L1.582 C1.592 (-0.51%)O1.593 H1.628 L1.587 C1.623 (+1.86%)O1.593 H1.628 L1.587 C1.623 (+1.86%)O1.625 H1.641 L1.618 C1.627 (+0.16%)O1.625 H1.641 L1.618 C1.627 (+0.16%)O1.627 H1.645 L1.611 C1.643 (+0.97%)O1.627 H1.645 L1.611 C1.643 (+0.97%)-2.2%O1.640 H1.643 L1.598 C1.604 (-2.20%)O1.640 H1.643 L1.598 C1.604 (-2.20%)O1.603 H1.637 L1.597 C1.627 (+1.47%)O1.603 H1.637 L1.597 C1.627 (+1.47%)O1.626 H1.659 L1.617 C1.634 (+0.52%)O1.626 H1.659 L1.617 C1.634 (+0.52%)O1.635 H1.643 L1.617 C1.634 (-0.01%)O1.635 H1.643 L1.617 C1.634 (-0.01%)O1.635 H1.654 L1.628 C1.645 (+0.61%)O1.635 H1.654 L1.628 C1.645 (+0.61%)O1.645 H1.658 L1.628 C1.631 (-0.83%)O1.645 H1.658 L1.628 C1.631 (-0.83%)O1.632 H1.649 L1.627 C1.632 (+0.00%)O1.632 H1.649 L1.627 C1.632 (+0.00%)O1.631 H1.648 L1.621 C1.621 (-0.63%)O1.631 H1.648 L1.621 C1.621 (-0.63%)O1.623 H1.653 L1.593 C1.603 (-1.24%)O1.623 H1.653 L1.593 C1.603 (-1.24%)O1.603 H1.615 L1.590 C1.612 (+0.56%)O1.603 H1.615 L1.590 C1.612 (+0.56%)O1.612 H1.615 L1.592 C1.596 (-0.98%)O1.612 H1.615 L1.592 C1.596 (-0.98%)O1.596 H1.599 L1.581 C1.591 (-0.34%)O1.596 H1.599 L1.581 C1.591 (-0.34%)O1.592 H1.605 L1.585 C1.596 (+0.26%)O1.592 H1.605 L1.585 C1.596 (+0.26%)O1.596 H1.599 L1.571 C1.581 (-0.92%)O1.596 H1.599 L1.571 C1.581 (-0.92%)O1.581 H1.589 L1.572 C1.581 (-0.03%)O1.581 H1.589 L1.572 C1.581 (-0.03%)O1.581 H1.595 L1.578 C1.588 (+0.46%)O1.581 H1.595 L1.578 C1.588 (+0.46%)O1.588 H1.588 L1.567 C1.585 (-0.21%)O1.588 H1.588 L1.567 C1.585 (-0.21%)O1.586 H1.610 L1.579 C1.600 (+0.93%)O1.586 H1.610 L1.579 C1.600 (+0.93%)O1.599 H1.599 L1.597 C1.598 (-0.09%)O1.599 H1.599 L1.597 C1.598 (-0.09%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=8,378,846 · μ=335153.8 · σ=763700.0 · CV=2.28BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=150984,9091,969,8182,954,7273,939,636μ = 335154158,597 · 4.0% peak158,597 · 4.0% peak564,848 · 14.3% peak564,848 · 14.3% peak90,763 · 2.3% peak90,763 · 2.3% peak179,331 · 4.6% peak179,331 · 4.6% peak274,283 · 7.0% peak274,283 · 7.0% peak241,609 · 6.1% peak241,609 · 6.1% peak326,248 · 8.3% peak326,248 · 8.3% peak249,140 · 6.3% peak249,140 · 6.3% peak564,910 · 14.3% peak564,910 · 14.3% peak130,753 · 3.3% peak130,753 · 3.3% peak142,509 · 3.6% peak142,509 · 3.6% peak265,713 · 6.7% peak265,713 · 6.7% peak165,573 · 4.2% peak165,573 · 4.2% peak134,202 · 3.4% peak134,202 · 3.4% peak3,939,6363,939,636 · 100.0% peak3,939,636 · 100.0% peak151,892 · 3.9% peak151,892 · 3.9% peak70,787 · 1.8% peak70,787 · 1.8% peak189,850 · 4.8% peak189,850 · 4.8% peak17,459 · 0.4% peak17,459 · 0.4% peak64,660 · 1.6% peak64,660 · 1.6% peak103,744 · 2.6% peak103,744 · 2.6% peak56,460 · 1.4% peak56,460 · 1.4% peak159,854 · 4.1% peak159,854 · 4.1% peak133,343 · 3.4% peak133,343 · 3.4% peak2,682 · 0.1% peak2,682 · 0.1% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 8378846 · peak 3939636 · CV 2.28

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0001 · σ=0.0088 · skew=-0.25 (symmetric) · kurt=0.02 (mesokurtic)54310 1-219.23bpbin -219.23bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -219.23bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-183.35bp-147.46bp 3-111.57bpbin -111.57bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -111.57bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 2-75.69bpbin -75.69bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -75.69bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 3-39.80bpbin -39.80bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -39.80bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 4-3.92bpbin -3.92bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -3.92bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 531.97bpbin 31.97bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 31.97bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 267.86bpbin 67.86bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 67.86bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2103.74bpbin 103.74bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 103.74bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 1139.63bpbin 139.63bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 139.63bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1175.51bpbin 175.51bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 175.51bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.32 · kurt=0.56 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$1.597
Mid price
$1.5973
24h change
+1.41%
Mark–mid spread
1.88 bps
Prev-day close
$1.5748

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.44)
μ MEAN1.6095$95% CI: [1.6016$, 1.6174$]
σ STD DEV0.0202$σ² = 4.081×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.26%
med MEDIAN1.6029$Q₁ 1.5947$ · Q₃ 1.6272$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0640$ · IQR 0.0325$ (1.349σ→0.0273$)
min 1.5806$Q₁ 1.5947$med 1.6029$Q₃ 1.6272$max 1.6446$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.236approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.441platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.33
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.84
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.17
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDMARGINAL EDGE · SR=0.85
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.008353%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.009
σᵣ STD / h0.919296%σ²ᵣ = 0.845×10⁻⁴ · CV = 110.06×
σ ANNUALISED86.04%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.919%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)0.85marginal edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)0.84downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)18.80exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.34approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.00mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 0.99
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 18.80
EXPECTED EDGE+73.17%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.11%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.114%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.087%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.753%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.89%10h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.114%VaR₉₉−2.087%ES₉₅−1.753%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 10h duration
PEAK164.46$
−3.89% drawdown over 10h
158.06$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmoderate fat tail|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.57× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 1.87× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.05% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
51.5 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.358 · within band
Bollinger upper
$1.6528
Bollinger MA
$1.6100
Bollinger lower
$1.5673

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.36 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.362within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.176lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.030strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.594significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.030
H = 1.030STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.362k=2+0.176k=3-0.033k=4-0.070k=5+0.1990+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.59)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.36 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.59)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$13.60M
Open interest (USD)
$60.43M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.23x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
0.988× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
0.494× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
0.247×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.93% · worst -2.37% · typical |Δ| 0.69%MILD BULLISH +0.20%BEST+1.93%14hWORST-2.37%17hTYPICAL |Δ|0.69%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.20%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.40% · Σ -3.18%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.39% · Σ +3.11%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.28%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.20%+3.08%-0.89%0.35% · 12h0.35% · 12h0.35%12h-0.51% · 13h-0.51% · 13h-0.51%13h1.93% · 14h1.93% · 14h1.93%14h★ BEST0.25% · 15h0.25% · 15h0.25%15h0.94% · 16h0.94% · 16h0.94%16h-2.37% · 17h-2.37% · 17h-2.37%17h▼ WORST1.41% · 18h1.41% · 18h1.41%18h0.47% · 19h0.47% · 19h0.47%19h-0.01% · 20h-0.01% · 20h-0.01%20h0.63% · 21h0.63% · 21h0.63%21h-0.84% · 22h-0.84% · 22h-0.84%22h0.06% · 23h0.06% · 23h0.06%23h-0.65% · 00h-0.65% · 00h-0.65%00h-1.14% · 01h-1.14% · 01h-1.14%01h0.57% · 02h0.57% · 02h0.57%02h-0.99% · 03h-0.99% · 03h-0.99%03h-0.35% · 04h-0.35% · 04h-0.35%04h0.34% · 05h0.34% · 05h0.34%05h-0.95% · 06h-0.95% · 06h-0.95%06h-0.02% · 07h-0.02% · 07h-0.02%07h0.48% · 08h0.48% · 08h0.48%08h-0.23% · 09h-0.23% · 09h-0.23%09h0.99% · 10h0.99% · 10h0.99%10h-0.16% · 11h-0.16% · 11h-0.16%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+3.11%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 1.93% · worst -2.37% · typical |Δ| 0.692%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.10%FINAL+0.10%MAX DD-3.92%RECOVERYONGOING · 14 barsMAX RUN-UP+3.06%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0010 · peak 1.0306 · range [0.9903, 1.0306]1.03060.9903break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0306UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.92% · moderate0%-3.92%▼ TROUGH -3.92%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -3.92%bar 12-25 · 14 bars · ONGOING#2 -2.37%bar 7-10 · 4 bars · recovered#3 -0.51%bar 3-3 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.92%)RECOVERYongoing · 14 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 1.0010 (0.10%) · max DD -3.92% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-15.51 · σ=31.68MIXED EDGELAST 2.80 (+0.58σ vs μ)69.9534.970.00-34.97-69.95μ = -15.516.286.2816.4716.4727.1427.148.078.0712.4312.43-8.46-8.4635.4735.47-9.17-9.17-45.95-45.95-28.54-28.54-69.95-69.95-60.19-60.19-49.53-49.53-53.70-53.70-33.61-33.61-36.85-36.85-21.85-21.8514.3714.372.802.80v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 2.803 · range [-69.95, 35.47] · μ -15.515 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=84.3374 · σ=34.4724 · range [48.3170, 145.6267] · R²=0.700▼ FALLING -54.62%σ EXTREME 40.87%LAST 61.9720145.6267121.299396.971972.644448.3170μ = 84.3374max 145.6267min 48.3170dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.70μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 61.97% · range [48.32%, 145.63%] · μ 84.34% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.393 · σ=0.174MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.230 (+0.94σ vs μ)0.6200.3100.000-0.310-0.620μ = -0.393-0.279-0.279-0.507-0.507-0.395-0.395-0.546-0.546-0.545-0.545-0.331-0.331-0.028-0.028-0.366-0.366-0.114-0.114-0.412-0.412-0.620-0.620-0.600-0.600-0.447-0.447-0.620-0.620-0.544-0.544-0.198-0.198-0.429-0.429-0.263-0.263-0.230-0.230v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.230 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.4684
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4799
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.9250
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3131
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.8593
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3622
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.0871
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0369
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (18 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4094
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0731
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.0573
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2904
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.678 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=9.09e-5 · top T=2.00h (21.8%) · top-3 cover 54.3%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.4e-41.8e-41.2e-46.0e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.07e-4 · 9.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.07e-4 · 9.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.36e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.36e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.22e-5 · 1.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.22e-5 · 1.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.93e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.93e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.16e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.16e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.72e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.72e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.31e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.31e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.84e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.84e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.13e-4 · 19.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.13e-4 · 19.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.17e-4 · 10.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.17e-4 · 10.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.41e-4 · 13.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.41e-4 · 13.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.38e-4 · 21.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.38e-4 · 21.8% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.67h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 21.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.091e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-12.32×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -7.46400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.003
annualized -7.46
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -886% · APY -100% · Sharpe -10.44σ ann 85% · Sortino -9.10 · n 4999
-1253%-982%-711%-440%-169%102%-885.5%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)84.8%Ann. vol σ-1044.3%Sharpe (ann)-909.6%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
1.5051.5401.5751.6101.6451.681t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:00:50 UTC
Snapshot age
2.9s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:00:54 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
e041c0c120dd113e9d277af16923b2595ec27b11337778242d7bd9029a7a2486 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$1.13K
bid $1.11K · ask $21
Depth within 5bp
$4.24K
bid $3.57K · ask $670
Depth within 10bp
$8.85K
bid $6.15K · ask $2.70K
Depth within 50bp
$68.56K
bid $29.35K · ask $39.21K
Mid price
1.597750
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.142
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.628
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-lit/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K1.59865.18bp1.59916FILLED
BUY$10.00K1.599712.51bp1.600110FILLED
BUY$100.00K1.600617.77bp1.601320PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K1.59760.94bp1.59761FILLED
SELL$10.00K1.59667.27bp1.595911FILLED
SELL$100.00K1.595812.28bp1.594920PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-lit/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$1.0000–$2.0000★25$8.38M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-lit/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.333 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$2.74M
real volume
Sell weight
$5.48M
real volume
Net delta
$2.74M
sellers net
Imbalance
-33.30%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
33.3%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-lit/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 3.89% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 22:00:00Z9.0h1.6446→1.58063.892%10
#22026-06-13 17:00:00Z1.0h1.6426→1.60412.344%2
#32026-06-13 13:00:00Z0ms1.6003→1.59210.512%1

/api/asset/hl-lit/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
84.80%
σ per bar = 0.000370
Mean return (annualised)
-885.52%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-10.44
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.00%
peak 1.61 → trough 1.57 over 3771 bars

/api/asset/hl-lit/risk · same metrics, JSON