HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

LTC

LTC-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-ltc · fresh · feed 6s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.60%
realized vol (ann.)
30.14%
max drawdown
0.68%
sharpe
8.92
ulcer index
0.15%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.11%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
1771.66
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.39%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.02
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
692.59
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.02
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.60%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ltc/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH6.4s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$43.998
24h Δ · live
0.60%
24h vol · live
$1.8M
LTC · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=44.0594 · σ=0.2420 · range [43.6180, 44.4280] · R²=0.270▲ RISING +0.51%σ LOW 0.55%LAST 43.978044.428044.225544.023043.820543.6180μ = 44.0594max 44.4280min 43.6180dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.27μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $43.98
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=40,656 · μ=1626.2 · σ=1518.4 · CV=0.93BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1101,5973,1954,7926,390μ = 16266,389.5950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 6390 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
6.4s
$mark $
$43.998
$mid $
$44.003
◉prev-day close
$43.736
Δ24h Δ %
+0.599%
$24h vol $
$1.79M
◐open interest $
$10.90M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=44.0594 · σ=0.2420 · range [43.6180, 44.4280] · R²=0.270▲ RISING +0.51%σ LOW 0.55%LAST 43.978044.428044.225544.023043.820543.6180μ = 44.0594max 44.4280min 43.6180dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.27μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $43.9980 · 24h 0.60% · range $[43.6180, 44.4280]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [43.5510, 44.6270] · σ=0.2420 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=42%BULLISH +0.55%CLOSE 43.9780 vs OPEN 43.7360 (+0.55%)&#9650; CLOSE 43.978044.627044.358044.089043.820043.5510μ close = 44.0594O43.736 H43.888 L43.736 C43.756 (+0.05%)O43.736 H43.888 L43.736 C43.756 (+0.05%)O43.770 H43.969 L43.752 C43.968 (+0.45%)O43.770 H43.969 L43.752 C43.968 (+0.45%)O43.942 H44.002 L43.822 C43.885 (-0.13%)O43.942 H44.002 L43.822 C43.885 (-0.13%)O43.885 H43.942 L43.800 C43.870 (-0.03%)O43.885 H43.942 L43.800 C43.870 (-0.03%)O43.877 H44.111 L43.851 C44.036 (+0.36%)O43.877 H44.111 L43.851 C44.036 (+0.36%)O44.051 H44.051 L43.653 C43.789 (-0.59%)O44.051 H44.051 L43.653 C43.789 (-0.59%)O43.799 H43.845 L43.551 C43.618 (-0.41%)O43.799 H43.845 L43.551 C43.618 (-0.41%)O43.613 H43.764 L43.606 C43.640 (+0.06%)O43.613 H43.764 L43.606 C43.640 (+0.06%)O43.667 H43.839 L43.648 C43.767 (+0.23%)O43.667 H43.839 L43.648 C43.767 (+0.23%)O43.782 H43.884 L43.696 C43.865 (+0.19%)O43.782 H43.884 L43.696 C43.865 (+0.19%)0.7%O43.882 H44.361 L43.879 C44.209 (+0.75%)O43.882 H44.361 L43.879 C44.209 (+0.75%)O44.222 H44.338 L44.144 C44.319 (+0.22%)O44.222 H44.338 L44.144 C44.319 (+0.22%)O44.321 H44.367 L44.231 C44.323 (+0.00%)O44.321 H44.367 L44.231 C44.323 (+0.00%)O44.323 H44.497 L44.266 C44.411 (+0.20%)O44.323 H44.497 L44.266 C44.411 (+0.20%)O44.415 H44.627 L44.336 C44.377 (-0.09%)O44.415 H44.627 L44.336 C44.377 (-0.09%)O44.382 H44.478 L44.271 C44.354 (-0.06%)O44.382 H44.478 L44.271 C44.354 (-0.06%)O44.342 H44.466 L44.261 C44.428 (+0.19%)O44.342 H44.466 L44.261 C44.428 (+0.19%)O44.444 H44.457 L44.091 C44.151 (-0.66%)O44.444 H44.457 L44.091 C44.151 (-0.66%)O44.147 H44.176 L43.970 C44.142 (-0.01%)O44.147 H44.176 L43.970 C44.142 (-0.01%)O44.135 H44.250 L44.101 C44.137 (+0.00%)O44.135 H44.250 L44.101 C44.137 (+0.00%)O44.125 H44.125 L43.888 C44.030 (-0.22%)O44.125 H44.125 L43.888 C44.030 (-0.22%)O44.048 H44.150 L43.988 C44.131 (+0.19%)O44.048 H44.150 L43.988 C44.131 (+0.19%)O44.133 H44.286 L44.009 C44.235 (+0.23%)O44.133 H44.286 L44.009 C44.235 (+0.23%)O44.236 H44.294 L44.067 C44.067 (-0.38%)O44.236 H44.294 L44.067 C44.067 (-0.38%)O44.056 H44.056 L43.978 C43.978 (-0.18%)O44.056 H44.056 L43.978 C43.978 (-0.18%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=40,656 · μ=1626.2 · σ=1518.4 · CV=0.93BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1101,5973,1954,7926,390μ = 1626175.72 · 2.8% peak175.72 · 2.8% peak1,351.85 · 21.2% peak1,351.85 · 21.2% peak716.25 · 11.2% peak716.25 · 11.2% peak370.11 · 5.8% peak370.11 · 5.8% peak658.51 · 10.3% peak658.51 · 10.3% peak3,061.75 · 47.9% peak3,061.75 · 47.9% peak839.76 · 13.1% peak839.76 · 13.1% peak771.22 · 12.1% peak771.22 · 12.1% peak3,179.96 · 49.8% peak3,179.96 · 49.8% peak3,447.43 · 54.0% peak3,447.43 · 54.0% peak6,389.596,389.59 · 100.0% peak6,389.59 · 100.0% peak4,513.53 · 70.6% peak4,513.53 · 70.6% peak2,088.97 · 32.7% peak2,088.97 · 32.7% peak1,803.56 · 28.2% peak1,803.56 · 28.2% peak504.55 · 7.9% peak504.55 · 7.9% peak818.64 · 12.8% peak818.64 · 12.8% peak412.35 · 6.5% peak412.35 · 6.5% peak676.72 · 10.6% peak676.72 · 10.6% peak1,135.37 · 17.8% peak1,135.37 · 17.8% peak353.5 · 5.5% peak353.5 · 5.5% peak1,477.5 · 23.1% peak1,477.5 · 23.1% peak1,653.08 · 25.9% peak1,653.08 · 25.9% peak2,436.45 · 38.1% peak2,436.45 · 38.1% peak1,789.85 · 28.0% peak1,789.85 · 28.0% peak30.01 · 0.5% peak30.01 · 0.5% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 40656 · peak 6390 · CV 0.93

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0002 · σ=0.0032 · skew=-0.07 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.36 (mesokurtic)65320 2-56.68bpbin -56.68bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -56.68bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 1-44.96bpbin -44.96bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -44.96bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-33.24bpbin -33.24bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -33.24bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 3-21.52bpbin -21.52bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -21.52bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 2-9.80bpbin -9.80bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -9.80bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 51.93bpbin 1.93bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin 1.93bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak 113.65bpbin 13.65bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 13.65bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 625.37bpbin 25.37bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 25.37bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 137.09bpbin 37.09bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 37.09bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 148.81bpbin 48.81bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 48.81bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak60.53bp 172.26bpbin 72.26bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 72.26bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.01 · kurt=-0.06 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$43.998
Mid price
$44.003
24h change
+0.60%
Mark–mid spread
1.14 bps
Prev-day close
$43.736

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.18)
μ MEAN44.0594$95% CI: [43.9646$, 44.1543$]
σ STD DEV0.2420$σ² = 0.059 · CV = 0.55%
med MEDIAN44.0670$Q₁ 43.8700$ · Q₃ 44.2350$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.8100$ · IQR 0.3650$ (1.349σ→0.3265$)
min 43.6180$Q₁ 43.8700$med 44.0670$Q₃ 44.2350$max 44.4280$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.157approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.178platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.03
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.89
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.35
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=5.99
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.021087%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.064
σᵣ STD / h0.329748%σ²ᵣ = 0.109×10⁻⁴ · CV = 15.64×
σ ANNUALISED30.86%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.330%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)5.99excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)6.37strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.01approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.22mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 1.06
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+184.72%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.54%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.537%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.611%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.594%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.01%8h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.537%VaR₉₉−0.611%ES₉₅−0.594%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 8h duration
PEAK4442.80$
−1.01% drawdown over 8h
4397.80$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.11× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.14× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.02% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
49.9 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.380 · within band
Bollinger upper
$44.6028
Bollinger MA
$44.0985
Bollinger lower
$43.5943

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.086within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.081lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.795strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.920significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.795
H = 0.795STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.086k=2-0.081k=3+0.230k=4-0.317k=5-0.2930+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.92)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.68very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.92)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.79M
Open interest (USD)
$10.90M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.16x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.78% · worst -0.63% · typical |Δ| 0.25%MILD BULLISH +0.51%BEST+0.78%21hWORST-0.63%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.25%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.51%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.08% · Σ -0.66%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.06% · Σ +0.52%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.08% · Σ +0.65%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.51%+1.52%-0.32%0.48% · 12h0.48% · 12h0.48%12h-0.19% · 13h-0.19% · 13h-0.19%13h-0.03% · 14h-0.03% · 14h-0.03%14h0.38% · 15h0.38% · 15h0.38%15h-0.56% · 16h-0.56% · 16h-0.56%16h-0.39% · 17h-0.39% · 17h-0.39%17h0.05% · 18h0.05% · 18h0.05%18h0.29% · 19h0.29% · 19h0.29%19h0.22% · 20h0.22% · 20h0.22%20h0.78% · 21h0.78% · 21h0.78%21h★ BEST0.25% · 22h0.25% · 22h0.25%22h0.01% · 23h0.01% · 23h0.01%23h0.20% · 00h0.20% · 00h0.20%00h-0.08% · 01h-0.08% · 01h-0.08%01h-0.05% · 02h-0.05% · 02h-0.05%02h0.17% · 03h0.17% · 03h0.17%03h-0.63% · 04h-0.63% · 04h-0.63%04h▼ WORST-0.02% · 05h-0.02% · 05h-0.02%05h-0.01% · 06h-0.01% · 06h-0.01%06h-0.24% · 07h-0.24% · 07h-0.24%07h0.23% · 08h0.23% · 08h0.23%08h0.24% · 09h0.24% · 09h0.24%09h-0.38% · 10h-0.38% · 10h-0.38%10h-0.20% · 11h-0.20% · 11h-0.20%11hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.65%)RUNSup max 7 · down max 4BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 0.78% · worst -0.63% · typical |Δ| 0.253%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.49%FINAL+0.49%MAX DD-1.02%RECOVERYONGOING · 8 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.53%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0049 · peak 1.0153 · range [0.9968, 1.0153]1.01530.9968break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0153UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.02% · moderate0%-1.02%▼ TROUGH -1.02%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -1.02%bar 18-25 · 8 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.95%bar 6-10 · 5 bars · recovered#3 -0.22%bar 3-4 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.02%)RECOVERYongoing · 8 barsTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 1.0049 (0.49%) · max DD -1.02% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=9.40 · σ=46.43MIXED EDGELAST -22.62 (-0.69σ vs μ)105.5952.800.00-52.80-105.59μ = 9.40-11.84-11.84-34.96-34.96-11.32-11.32-0.46-0.4612.5312.5349.4349.4390.6590.65105.59105.5972.1372.1353.8853.8855.3955.39-19.91-19.91-21.53-21.53-35.77-35.77-44.51-44.51-25.15-25.15-20.92-20.92-12.01-12.01-22.62-22.62v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -22.618 · range [-44.51, 105.59] · μ 9.400 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=29.3129 · σ=7.0193 · range [13.0244, 45.6814] · R²=0.339▼ FALLING -38.31%σ EXTREME 23.95%LAST 24.027445.681437.517229.352921.188713.0244μ = 29.3129max 45.6814min 13.0244dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.34μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 24.03% · range [13.02%, 45.68%] · μ 29.31% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.122 · σ=0.233MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.077 (+0.19σ vs μ)0.4720.2360.000-0.236-0.472μ = -0.122-0.132-0.132-0.198-0.198-0.052-0.0520.0890.0890.3690.3690.1650.165-0.087-0.087-0.047-0.0470.0430.0430.1610.161-0.301-0.301-0.251-0.251-0.355-0.355-0.443-0.443-0.472-0.472-0.464-0.4640.0100.010-0.270-0.270-0.077-0.077v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.077 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.0494
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9756
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.9115
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1599
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.7435
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4174
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.2523
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2105
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4095
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0731
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.1856
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8528
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.056 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.06e-5 · top T=3.00h (37.1%) · top-3 cover 66.6%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)4.7e-53.5e-52.4e-51.2e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 9.65e-6 · 7.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 9.65e-6 · 7.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.15e-5 · 16.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.15e-5 · 16.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.93e-6 · 6.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.93e-6 · 6.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.59e-5 · 12.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.59e-5 · 12.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.47e-8 · 0.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.47e-8 · 0.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.05e-8 · 0.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.05e-8 · 0.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.25e-5 · 9.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.25e-5 · 9.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.71e-5 · 37.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.71e-5 · 37.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.11e-7 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.11e-7 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.75e-6 · 4.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.75e-6 · 4.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.70e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.70e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.93e-6 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.93e-6 · 3.1% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=12.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 37.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.270e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.01%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.01%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-94.43×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -33.98400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.015
annualized -33.98
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -876% · APY -100% · Sharpe -28.76σ ann 30% · Sortino -18.80 · n 4999
-3452%-2754%-2056%-1359%-661%37%-876.2%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)30.5%Ann. vol σ-2876.4%Sharpe (ann)-1879.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
42.15742.98143.80644.63145.45646.281t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:00:50 UTC
Snapshot age
6.4s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:00:57 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
1c41689e72c1f021b247cca2e7d018dde9b7c265fbc74ad407dacbe1f38c7a03 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$21.48K
bid $8.85K · ask $12.63K
Depth within 10bp
$108.26K
bid $43.82K · ask $64.44K
Depth within 50bp
$130.17K
bid $55.83K · ask $74.34K
Mid price
43.994500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.141
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.016
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ltc/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K44.00101.48bp44.00101FILLED
BUY$10.00K44.00602.62bp44.01106FILLED
BUY$100.00K44.02506.93bp44.039020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K43.98751.60bp43.98502FILLED
SELL$10.00K43.98013.28bp43.97107FILLED
SELL$100.00K43.95947.97bp43.945020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-ltc/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$44.0000–$45.0000★15$26.71K
$43.0000–$44.000010$13.94K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ltc/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.418 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$28.71K
real volume
Sell weight
$11.77K
real volume
Net delta
$16.93K
buyers net
Imbalance
41.83%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
41.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ltc/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 0.95% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h44.0360→43.61800.949%3
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h44.4280→44.13700.655%3
#32026-06-14 11:00:00Z0ms44.2350→43.97800.581%1

/api/asset/hl-ltc/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
30.46%
σ per bar = 0.000133
Mean return (annualised)
-876.18%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-28.76
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.32%
peak 44.48 → trough 43.89 over 1922 bars

/api/asset/hl-ltc/risk · same metrics, JSON