HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

MANTA

MANTA-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-manta · fresh · feed 6s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.25%
realized vol (ann.)
56.85%
max drawdown
0.93%
sharpe
20.85
ulcer index
0.42%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.35%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
2813.59
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.81%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.05
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
1471.65
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.05
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.25%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
29.79%
signalSHORTconfidence 43%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -3.25%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark rich vs HL oracle by 14.6bps — fade/short bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-manta/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.082
24h Δ · live
-3.25%
24h vol · live
$0.4M
MANTA · live 24h price
n=24 · μ=0.0827 · σ=0.0006 · range [0.0814, 0.0840] · R²=0.293▼ FALLING -0.92%σ LOW 0.71%LAST 0.08220.08400.08340.08270.08210.0814μ = 0.0827max 0.0840min 0.0814dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.29μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
24 closes · last $0.08
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.3%Short fee 50.7%SHORT FEE50.7%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.01% (99.99pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.3%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.7%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.003400% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=24 · Σ=4,878,854 · μ=203285.6 · σ=182043.0 · CV=0.90BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=60200,492400,985601,477801,970μ = 203286801,969.650%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 801970 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.5s
$mark $
$0.0822
$mid $
$0.0822
◉prev-day close
$0.0849
Δ24h Δ %
-3.250%
$24h vol $
$403.67k
◐open interest $
$2.57M
%funding (1h)
0.003400%
%funding (yr)
+29.79%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=24 · μ=0.0827 · σ=0.0006 · range [0.0814, 0.0840] · R²=0.293▼ FALLING -0.92%σ LOW 0.71%LAST 0.08220.08400.08340.08270.08210.0814μ = 0.0827max 0.0840min 0.0814dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.29μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0822 · 24h -3.25% · range $[0.0814, 0.0840]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=24 · up 10 · down 14 (42% up) · range [0.0812, 0.0851] · σ=0.0006 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=39%BEARISH -3.25%CLOSE 0.0822 vs OPEN 0.0849 (-3.25%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.08220.08510.08410.08310.08220.0812μ close = 0.0827-2.4%O0.085 H0.085 L0.082 C0.083 (-2.35%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.082 C0.083 (-2.35%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.084 (+1.13%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.084 (+1.13%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.082 C0.083 (-1.48%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.082 C0.083 (-1.48%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (-0.19%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (-0.19%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (-0.06%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (-0.06%)O0.082 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (-0.13%)O0.082 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (-0.13%)O0.082 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (+0.85%)O0.082 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (+0.85%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.01%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.01%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.083 (+0.45%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.083 (+0.45%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.083 (+0.40%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.083 (+0.40%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.23%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.23%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.36%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.36%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (-0.22%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (-0.22%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (+0.04%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (+0.04%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (+0.67%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (+0.67%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.083 C0.083 (+0.14%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.083 C0.083 (+0.14%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.083 (+0.11%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.083 (+0.11%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (-0.77%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (-0.77%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.04%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.04%)O0.082 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (-0.32%)O0.082 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (-0.32%)O0.082 H0.082 L0.081 C0.082 (-0.58%)O0.082 H0.082 L0.081 C0.082 (-0.58%)O0.082 H0.082 L0.081 C0.081 (-0.20%)O0.082 H0.082 L0.081 C0.081 (-0.20%)O0.081 H0.082 L0.081 C0.082 (+0.52%)O0.081 H0.082 L0.081 C0.082 (+0.52%)O0.082 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (+0.32%)O0.082 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (+0.32%)#1#5#9#13#17#21up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(4) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
24 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=24 · Σ=4,878,854 · μ=203285.6 · σ=182043.0 · CV=0.90BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=60200,492400,985601,477801,970μ = 203286801,969.6801,969.6 · 100.0% peak801,969.6 · 100.0% peak309,753.7 · 38.6% peak309,753.7 · 38.6% peak376,924.5 · 47.0% peak376,924.5 · 47.0% peak422,971 · 52.7% peak422,971 · 52.7% peak219,620.7 · 27.4% peak219,620.7 · 27.4% peak309,029.4 · 38.5% peak309,029.4 · 38.5% peak241,037.6 · 30.1% peak241,037.6 · 30.1% peak43,817.2 · 5.5% peak43,817.2 · 5.5% peak31,579.1 · 3.9% peak31,579.1 · 3.9% peak50,631.8 · 6.3% peak50,631.8 · 6.3% peak86,602.3 · 10.8% peak86,602.3 · 10.8% peak115,605.5 · 14.4% peak115,605.5 · 14.4% peak124,101.4 · 15.5% peak124,101.4 · 15.5% peak153,094.4 · 19.1% peak153,094.4 · 19.1% peak335,178.7 · 41.8% peak335,178.7 · 41.8% peak58,353 · 7.3% peak58,353 · 7.3% peak255,178.7 · 31.8% peak255,178.7 · 31.8% peak195,364.6 · 24.4% peak195,364.6 · 24.4% peak44,990.8 · 5.6% peak44,990.8 · 5.6% peak432,570.3 · 53.9% peak432,570.3 · 53.9% peak53,732.3 · 6.7% peak53,732.3 · 6.7% peak82,589.3 · 10.3% peak82,589.3 · 10.3% peak71,288.5 · 8.9% peak71,288.5 · 8.9% peak62,869.8 · 7.8% peak62,869.8 · 7.8% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 4878854 · peak 801970 · CV 0.90

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=23 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0005 · σ=0.0054 · skew=-0.00 (symmetric) · kurt=0.22 (mesokurtic)54310 1-136.09bpbin -136.09bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -136.09bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-113.21bp-90.33bp 2-67.46bpbin -67.46bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -67.46bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 4-44.58bpbin -44.58bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -44.58bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 4-21.70bpbin -21.70bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -21.70bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 51.18bpbin 1.18bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 1.18bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 124.06bpbin 24.06bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 24.06bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 346.94bpbin 46.94bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 46.94bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 269.81bpbin 69.81bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 69.81bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak92.69bp 1115.57bpbin 115.57bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 115.57bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=23 · positive 10 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=23 · skew=-0.04 · kurt=0.67 · near 20 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0822
Mid price
$0.0822
24h change
-3.25%
Mark–mid spread
3.65 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0849

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=24APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0827$95% CI: [0.0825$, 0.0829$]
σ STD DEV0.0006$σ² = 0.003×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.71%
med MEDIAN0.0827$Q₁ 0.0824$ · Q₃ 0.0832$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0025$ · IQR 0.0008$ (1.349σ→0.0008$)
min 0.0814$Q₁ 0.0824$med 0.0827$Q₃ 0.0832$max 0.0840$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.125approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.328mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.01
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.02
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.33
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-6.50
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.040029%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.069
σᵣ STD / h0.576770%σ²ᵣ = 0.333×10⁻⁴ · CV = 14.41×
σ ANNUALISED53.98%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.577%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-6.50negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-6.76downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.05approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.16leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.04
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-350.65%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.75%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.753%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.320%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.123%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.04%20h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.753%VaR₉₉−1.320%ES₉₅−1.123%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 20h duration
PEAK8.40$
−3.04% drawdown over 20h
8.14$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.49× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 1.75× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.13% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
45.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.299 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0838
Bollinger MA
$0.0826
Bollinger lower
$0.0815

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.102within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.058lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.890strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.018significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.890
H = 0.890STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.102k=2-0.058k=3-0.113k=4-0.324k=5+0.0320+1−1+0.42−0.42+ momentum (ρ > +0.42)− reversal (ρ < −0.42)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.02)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.88very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.02)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$403.67k
Open interest (USD)
$2.57M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.16x
1h funding
0.003400%
Funding (annualised)
+29.79%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=23 bars · best 1.27% · worst -1.48% · typical |Δ| 0.43%MILD BEARISH -0.92%BEST+1.27%12hWORST-1.48%13hTYPICAL |Δ|0.43%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.92%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.14% · Σ -1.11%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.03%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.02% · Σ +0.16%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.92%+1.27%-1.81%1.27% · 12h1.27% · 12h1.27%12h★ BEST-1.48% · 13h-1.48% · 13h-1.48%13h▼ WORST-0.40% · 14h-0.40% · 14h-0.40%14h0.05% · 15h0.05% · 15h0.05%15h-0.29% · 16h-0.29% · 16h-0.29%16h0.79% · 17h0.79% · 17h0.79%17h-0.01% · 18h-0.01% · 18h-0.01%18h0.42% · 19h0.42% · 19h0.42%19h0.26% · 20h0.26% · 20h0.26%20h-0.29% · 21h-0.29% · 21h-0.29%21h-0.39% · 22h-0.39% · 22h-0.39%22h-0.34% · 23h-0.34% · 23h-0.34%23h-0.02% · 00h-0.02% · 00h-0.02%00h0.68% · 01h0.68% · 01h0.68%01h0.10% · 02h0.10% · 02h0.10%02h0.06% · 03h0.06% · 03h0.06%03h-0.77% · 04h-0.77% · 04h-0.77%04h-0.13% · 05h-0.13% · 05h-0.13%05h-0.43% · 06h-0.43% · 06h-0.43%06h-0.59% · 07h-0.59% · 07h-0.59%07h-0.31% · 08h-0.31% · 08h-0.31%08h0.50% · 09h0.50% · 09h0.50%09h0.39% · 10h0.39% · 10h0.39%10hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.16%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 5BREADTH43% up · 57% down
10 up bars · 13 down · best 1.27% · worst -1.48% · typical |Δ| 0.433%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=24 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.95%)FINAL-0.95%MAX DD-3.06%RECOVERYONGOING · 22 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.27%UNDERWATER22/24 (92%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9905 · peak 1.0127 · range [0.9817, 1.0127]1.01270.9817break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0127UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.06% · moderate0%-3.06%▼ TROUGH -3.06%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -3.06%bar 3-24 · 22 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.06%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 22/24 bars
final equity 0.9905 (-0.95%) · max DD -3.06% · time-under-water 22/24 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 5 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-18.07 · σ=53.33MIXED EDGELAST -16.02 (+0.04σ vs μ)168.6784.340.00-84.34-168.67μ = -18.07-16.08-16.08-30.37-30.375.355.3542.5942.5953.1353.1353.4353.43-0.00-0.00-16.15-16.15-53.03-53.03-15.29-15.291.051.0523.9023.901.321.32-2.62-2.62-60.29-60.29-103.34-103.34-168.67-168.67-42.20-42.20-16.02-16.02v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -16.024 · range [-168.67, 53.43] · μ -18.069 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=42.5897 · σ=16.4670 · range [23.0816, 92.3323] · R²=0.243▼ FALLING -49.67%σ EXTREME 38.66%LAST 46.472292.332375.019757.707040.394323.0816μ = 42.5897max 92.3323min 23.0816dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.24μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 46.47% · range [23.08%, 92.33%] · μ 42.59% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-0.096 · σ=0.352CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.436 (+1.51σ vs μ)0.6880.3440.000-0.344-0.688μ = -0.096-0.425-0.4250.0310.031-0.333-0.333-0.550-0.550-0.688-0.688-0.285-0.2850.2950.2950.4290.429-0.022-0.0220.2240.2240.2550.255-0.030-0.0300.0020.0020.1090.109-0.253-0.253-0.596-0.596-0.485-0.4850.0640.0640.4360.436v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.436 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.2882
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5251
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.9371
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5606
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.9234
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3317
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.5669
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5708
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3813
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0852
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=2

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.9822
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3260
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.795 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=11 bins · noise floor μ=3.33e-5 · top T=7.67h (35.1%) · top-3 cover 71.7%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.3e-49.6e-56.4e-53.2e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 23.0 · power 9.01e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 23.0 · power 9.01e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 11.5 · power 2.88e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 11.5 · power 2.88e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 7.7 · power 1.28e-4 · 35.1% energyperiod 7.7 · power 1.28e-4 · 35.1% energyperiod 5.8 · power 6.99e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 5.8 · power 6.99e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 4.6 · power 5.75e-5 · 15.7% energyperiod 4.6 · power 5.75e-5 · 15.7% energyperiod 3.8 · power 7.18e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 3.8 · power 7.18e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 3.3 · power 3.48e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 3.3 · power 3.48e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 2.9 · power 2.51e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 2.9 · power 2.51e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 2.6 · power 7.64e-5 · 20.9% energyperiod 2.6 · power 7.64e-5 · 20.9% energyperiod 2.3 · power 1.64e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 2.3 · power 1.64e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 2.1 · power 3.25e-5 · 8.9% energyperiod 2.1 · power 3.25e-5 · 8.9% energy50% by T=4.6h#1 dominantT=7.67h#2T=2.56h#3T=4.60hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 7.67h (freq 0.130) · concentrates 35.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.659e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-23.31×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -13.80400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.006
annualized -13.80
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -16.43σ ann 70% · Sortino -9.03 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-1971%-1560%-1149%-738%-327%85%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)70.5%Ann. vol σ-1642.8%Sharpe (ann)-902.7%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0780.0800.0820.0830.0850.087t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:01:15 UTC
Snapshot age
5.5s
History points
24 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:01:20 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
dfb49d9d991a7c71ecffbb765ce44aec4011477b27969ae2ccf88e469b35775f · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$4.34K
bid $2.89K · ask $1.45K
Depth within 50bp
$17.68K
bid $9.33K · ask $8.35K
Mid price
0.082215
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
10.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.533
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.411
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-manta/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0822686.46bp0.0822702FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.08244227.67bp0.08293015FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.08283074.78bp0.08373020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0821665.96bp0.0821602FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.08202922.64bp0.08176014FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.08168264.86bp0.08121020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+3.400e-5
0.00340% / hr
Annualised APR
29.808%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
12.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
12.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-29.808%12.3d122.5d
SHORTRECEIVE29.808%12.3d122.5d

/api/asset/hl-manta/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 24 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★24$4.88M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-manta/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.198 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.64M
real volume
Sell weight
$2.44M
real volume
Net delta
$805.90K
sellers net
Imbalance
-19.77%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
19.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 24-record window./api/asset/hl-manta/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 2.20% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z4.0h0.083270→0.0814402.198%5
#22026-06-13 13:00:00Z3.0h0.083990→0.0822302.095%4
#32026-06-13 22:00:00Z2.0h0.083440→0.0825801.031%3

/api/asset/hl-manta/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
70.48%
σ per bar = 0.000307
Mean return (annualised)
-1157.89%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-16.43
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.83%
peak 0.08 → trough 0.08 over 2763 bars

/api/asset/hl-manta/risk · same metrics, JSON