HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

MEME

MEME-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-meme · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 6.79%
realized vol (ann.)
229.67%
max drawdown
6.17%
sharpe
5.76
ulcer index
2.93%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.08%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.11%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
450.93
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
5.54%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.01
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
238.48
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.01
upside/downside
roll spread
5.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
6.79%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-21.42%
signalLONGconfidence 43%suggested side: BUY
  • 24h change +6.79%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 16.7bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-meme/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.001
24h Δ · live
6.79%
24h vol · live
$0.2M
MEME · live 24h price
n=24 · μ=0.0006 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0006, 0.0006] · R²=0.579▲ RISING +5.50%σ NORMAL 2.83%LAST 0.00060.00060.00060.00060.00060.0006μ = 0.0006max 0.0006min 0.0006dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.58μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
24 closes · last $0.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.0%Short fee 51.0%SHORT FEE51.0%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.0%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.0%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.002445% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=24 · Σ=408,975,539 · μ=17040647.5 · σ=20819035.5 · CV=1.22BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=20020,290,00940,580,01860,870,02781,160,036μ = 1704064781,160,03650%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 81160036 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.3s
$mark $
$0.0006
$mid $
$0.0006
◉prev-day close
$0.0006
Δ24h Δ %
+6.786%
$24h vol $
$238.63k
◐open interest $
$387.66k
%funding (1h)
-0.002445%
%funding (yr)
-21.42%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=24 · μ=0.0006 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0006, 0.0006] · R²=0.579▲ RISING +5.50%σ NORMAL 2.83%LAST 0.00060.00060.00060.00060.00060.0006μ = 0.0006max 0.0006min 0.0006dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.58μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0006 · 24h 6.79% · range $[0.0006, 0.0006]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=24 · up 16 · down 8 (67% up) · range [0.0006, 0.0006] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.03 · bodyµ=64%STRONG BULLISH +6.25%CLOSE 0.0006 vs OPEN 0.0006 (+6.25%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.00060.00060.00060.00060.00060.0006μ close = 0.0006O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.71%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.71%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.53%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.53%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.18%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.18%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.18%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.18%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.25%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.25%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.18%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.18%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.36%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.36%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.18%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.18%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.71%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.71%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.53%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.53%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.18%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.18%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.53%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.53%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.71%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.71%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.70%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.70%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.05%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.05%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.69%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.69%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.39%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.39%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.54%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.54%)3.9%O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+3.89%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+3.89%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.47%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.47%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.16%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.16%)#1#5#9#13#17#21up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(4) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
24 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=24 · Σ=408,975,539 · μ=17040647.5 · σ=20819035.5 · CV=1.22BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=20020,290,00940,580,01860,870,02781,160,036μ = 1704064721,136,007 · 26.0% peak21,136,007 · 26.0% peak2,101,438 · 2.6% peak2,101,438 · 2.6% peak744,095 · 0.9% peak744,095 · 0.9% peak208,860 · 0.3% peak208,860 · 0.3% peak41,442,483 · 51.1% peak41,442,483 · 51.1% peak8,108,826 · 10.0% peak8,108,826 · 10.0% peak1,936,916 · 2.4% peak1,936,916 · 2.4% peak100,842 · 0.1% peak100,842 · 0.1% peak2,762,825 · 3.4% peak2,762,825 · 3.4% peak1,680,622 · 2.1% peak1,680,622 · 2.1% peak4,696,007 · 5.8% peak4,696,007 · 5.8% peak44,342,015 · 54.6% peak44,342,015 · 54.6% peak352,012 · 0.4% peak352,012 · 0.4% peak7,498,638 · 9.2% peak7,498,638 · 9.2% peak21,993,464 · 27.1% peak21,993,464 · 27.1% peak13,535,280 · 16.7% peak13,535,280 · 16.7% peak11,755,394 · 14.5% peak11,755,394 · 14.5% peak3,122,469 · 3.8% peak3,122,469 · 3.8% peak1,268,880 · 1.6% peak1,268,880 · 1.6% peak46,517,797 · 57.3% peak46,517,797 · 57.3% peak21,249,726 · 26.2% peak21,249,726 · 26.2% peak42,203,184 · 52.0% peak42,203,184 · 52.0% peak81,160,03681,160,036 · 100.0% peak81,160,036 · 100.0% peak29,057,723 · 35.8% peak29,057,723 · 35.8% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 408975539 · peak 81160036 · CV 1.22

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=23 · 12 bins · μ=0.0023 · σ=0.0112 · skew=0.70 (right-skewed) · kurt=0.43 (mesokurtic)54310 2-158.48bpbin -158.48bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -158.48bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak-114.49bp 4-70.50bpbin -70.50bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -70.50bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 5-26.51bpbin -26.51bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -26.51bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 417.49bpbin 17.49bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 17.49bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 161.48bpbin 61.48bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 61.48bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 3105.47bpbin 105.47bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 105.47bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 2149.46bpbin 149.46bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 149.46bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 1193.46bpbin 193.46bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 193.46bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak237.45bp281.44bp 1325.43bpbin 325.43bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 325.43bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=23 · positive 11 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=23 · skew=0.72 · kurt=0.59 · near 22 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0006
Mid price
$0.0006
24h change
+6.79%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0006

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=24STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.32)
μ MEAN0.0006$95% CI: [0.0006$, 0.0006$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.83%
med MEDIAN0.0006$Q₁ 0.0006$ · Q₃ 0.0006$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0001$ · IQR 0.0000$ (1.349σ→0.0000$)
min 0.0006$Q₁ 0.0006$med 0.0006$Q₃ 0.0006$max 0.0006$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.320right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.534mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.46
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.34
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.52
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=18.16
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.232640%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.194
σᵣ STD / h1.198955%σ²ᵣ = 1.437×10⁻⁴ · CV = 5.15×
σ ANNUALISED112.22%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.199%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)18.16excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)25.08strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.77right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.05leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.38
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+2037.92%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.44%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.440%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.738%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.653%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.25%2h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.440%VaR₉₉−1.738%ES₉₅−1.653%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 2h duration
PEAK0.06$
−3.25% drawdown over 2h
0.06$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.15× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.21× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.36% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
61.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.824 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0006
Bollinger MA
$0.0006
Bollinger lower
$0.0005

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.097within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.221lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.844strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+5.502significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.844
H = 0.844STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.097k=2-0.221k=3-0.221k=4+0.221k=5+0.1870+1−1+0.42−0.42+ momentum (ρ > +0.42)− reversal (ρ < −0.42)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.50)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.78very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.50)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$238.63k
Open interest (USD)
$387.66k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.62x
1h funding
-0.002445%
Funding (annualised)
-21.42%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=23 bars · best 3.47% · worst -1.80% · typical |Δ| 0.91%MILD BULLISH +5.35%BEST+3.47%08hWORST-1.80%09hTYPICAL |Δ|0.91%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+5.35%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.74% · Σ +5.89%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.52%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.13% · Σ -1.07%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +5.35%+8.66%-1.07%-0.36% · 12h-0.36% · 12h-0.36%12h-0.18% · 13h-0.18% · 13h-0.18%13h-0.36% · 14h-0.36% · 14h-0.36%14h1.24% · 15h1.24% · 15h1.24%15h-0.53% · 16h-0.53% · 16h-0.53%16h-0.71% · 17h-0.71% · 17h-0.71%17h0.18% · 18h0.18% · 18h0.18%18h0.71% · 19h0.71% · 19h0.71%19h-0.89% · 20h-0.89% · 20h-0.89%20h0.36% · 21h0.36% · 21h0.36%21h-0.18% · 22h-0.18% · 22h-0.18%22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h-0.36% · 00h-0.36% · 00h-0.36%00h0.18% · 01h0.18% · 01h0.18%01h1.07% · 02h1.07% · 02h1.07%02h1.75% · 03h1.75% · 03h1.75%03h0.87% · 04h0.87% · 04h0.87%04h-0.87% · 05h-0.87% · 05h-0.87%05h1.55% · 06h1.55% · 06h1.55%06h1.70% · 07h1.70% · 07h1.70%07h3.47% · 08h3.47% · 08h3.47%08h★ BEST-1.80% · 09h-1.80% · 09h-1.80%09h▼ WORST-1.50% · 10h-1.50% · 10h-1.50%10hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+5.89%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH48% up · 48% down · 4% flat
11 up bars · 11 down · best 3.47% · worst -1.80% · typical |Δ| 0.905%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=24 barsPROFITABLE +5.32%FINAL+5.32%MAX DD-3.28%RECOVERYONGOING · 2 barsMAX RUN-UP+8.90%UNDERWATER17/24 (71%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0532 · peak 1.0890 · range [0.9892, 1.0890]1.08900.9892break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0890UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.28% · moderate0%-3.28%▼ TROUGH -3.28%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -3.28%bar 23-24 · 2 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.43%bar 6-16 · 11 bars · recovered#3 -0.89%bar 2-4 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.28%)RECOVERYongoing · 2 barsTIME UNDER WATER71% of session · 17/24 bars
final equity 1.0532 (5.32%) · max DD -3.28% · time-under-water 17/24 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 5 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +11 / −8 (58% positive) · μ=23.32 · σ=40.14MIXED EDGELAST 28.25 (+0.12σ vs μ)84.9942.500.00-42.50-84.99μ = 23.32-4.57-4.57-12.82-12.82-4.23-4.2320.2220.22-34.61-34.61-9.56-9.565.495.49-0.00-0.00-43.39-43.39-0.00-0.0023.9823.9857.3257.3280.4880.4856.5556.5578.9878.9884.9984.9980.3580.3535.7035.7028.2528.25v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 28.245 · range [-43.39, 84.99] · μ 23.322 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=87.5582 · σ=48.7686 · range [26.4498, 212.0835] · R²=0.464▲ RISING +211.97%σ EXTREME 55.70%LAST 212.0835212.0835165.6750119.266672.858226.4498μ = 87.5582max 212.0835min 26.4498dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.46μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 212.08% · range [26.45%, 212.08%] · μ 87.56% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.175 · σ=0.315MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.107 (+0.90σ vs μ)0.6960.3480.000-0.348-0.696μ = -0.175-0.453-0.453-0.261-0.261-0.343-0.343-0.046-0.046-0.151-0.151-0.493-0.493-0.604-0.604-0.696-0.696-0.457-0.457-0.400-0.4000.1070.1070.4200.4200.3450.3450.0660.066-0.233-0.233-0.102-0.1020.1450.145-0.287-0.2870.1070.107v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.107 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
3.3207
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1901
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.5772
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3495
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.5167
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8822
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.4369
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6622
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3913
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0809
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=2

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.4277
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6689
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.089 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=11 bins · noise floor μ=1.44e-4 · top T=5.75h (21.3%) · top-3 cover 50.9%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)3.4e-42.5e-41.7e-48.4e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 23.0 · power 1.97e-4 · 12.4% energyperiod 23.0 · power 1.97e-4 · 12.4% energyperiod 11.5 · power 1.29e-4 · 8.2% energyperiod 11.5 · power 1.29e-4 · 8.2% energyperiod 7.7 · power 5.93e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 7.7 · power 5.93e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 5.8 · power 3.37e-4 · 21.3% energyperiod 5.8 · power 3.37e-4 · 21.3% energyperiod 4.6 · power 2.71e-4 · 17.1% energyperiod 4.6 · power 2.71e-4 · 17.1% energyperiod 3.8 · power 1.10e-4 · 6.9% energyperiod 3.8 · power 1.10e-4 · 6.9% energyperiod 3.3 · power 1.37e-4 · 8.7% energyperiod 3.3 · power 1.37e-4 · 8.7% energyperiod 2.9 · power 8.52e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 2.9 · power 8.52e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 2.6 · power 2.56e-5 · 1.6% energyperiod 2.6 · power 2.56e-5 · 1.6% energyperiod 2.3 · power 6.39e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.3 · power 6.39e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.1 · power 1.67e-4 · 10.5% energyperiod 2.1 · power 1.67e-4 · 10.5% energy50% by T=4.6h#1 dominantT=5.75h#2T=4.60h#3T=23.00hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 5.75h (freq 0.174) · concentrates 21.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.581e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.006%/barparametric μ/σ² 15.77× · μ 0.001% · σ 0.08%
μ per barmean
0.001%
σ per barvol
0.08%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
15.77×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.01%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 3.00× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.003% · annualized Sharpe 25.56400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 3.00× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.011
annualized 25.56
μ per barafter L
0.003%
σ per barafter L
0.24%
VaR 95%5%
0.50%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.57%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.4%
0.87×0.94×1.00×1.06×1.13×1.19×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 29.72σ ann 188% · Sortino 12.88 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%713%1426%2140%2853%3566%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)188.4%Ann. vol σ2971.7%Sharpe (ann)1287.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.002% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0010.0010.0010.0010.0010.001t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:00:57 UTC
Snapshot age
4.3s
History points
24 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:01:02 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
a6fe93dd268ded8271e0b23e00cbbc762818c75e0011a48a592569c58b7a0635 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$7.64K
bid $1.89K · ask $5.74K
Depth within 50bp
$28.71K
bid $12.82K · ask $15.89K
Mid price
0.000599
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
16.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.009
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.002
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-meme/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0005998.35bp0.0005991FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00059915.46bp0.0006002FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.000611205.35bp0.00063120PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0005988.35bp0.0005981FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00059727.08bp0.0005963FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.000586210.04bp0.00056820PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-2.445e-5
-0.00245% / hr
Annualised APR
-21.433%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
17.0d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
17.0d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE21.433%17.0d170.4d
SHORTPAY-21.433%17.0d170.4d

/api/asset/hl-meme/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 24 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★24$408.98M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-meme/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.080 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$209.38M
real volume
Sell weight
$178.46M
real volume
Net delta
$30.92M
buyers net
Imbalance
7.97%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
8.0%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 24-record window./api/asset/hl-meme/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 3.25% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 09:00:00Z1.0h0.000615→0.0005953.252%2
#22026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.000566→0.0005591.237%3
#32026-06-13 13:00:00Z1.0h0.000564→0.0005590.887%2

/api/asset/hl-meme/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
188.43%
σ per bar = 0.000822
Mean return (annualised)
5599.71%
μ per bar = 0.000011
Sharpe (rf=0)
29.72
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
6.17%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 958 bars

/api/asset/hl-meme/risk · same metrics, JSON