HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

MERL

MERL-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-merl · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -4.83%
realized vol (ann.)
73.88%
max drawdown
3.54%
sharpe
-103.80
ulcer index
1.60%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.39%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.05%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-4796.43
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.30%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.85
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2322.71
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.85
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-4.83%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 40%
  • 24h change -4.83%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 17.9bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-merl/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.019
24h Δ · live
-4.83%
24h vol · live
$0.2M
MERL · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0203 · σ=0.0004 · range [0.0195, 0.0209] · R²=0.908▼ FALLING -5.67%σ NORMAL 1.73%LAST 0.01950.02090.02050.02020.01980.0195μ = 0.0203max 0.0209min 0.0195dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.91μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.02
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=9,051,063 · μ=362042.5 · σ=308864.9 · CV=0.85BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=140356,759713,5181,070,2771,427,036μ = 3620431,427,03650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1427036 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.0s
$mark $
$0.0195
$mid $
$0.0195
◉prev-day close
$0.0205
Δ24h Δ %
-4.833%
$24h vol $
$183.39k
◐open interest $
$369.36k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0203 · σ=0.0004 · range [0.0195, 0.0209] · R²=0.908▼ FALLING -5.67%σ NORMAL 1.73%LAST 0.01950.02090.02050.02020.01980.0195μ = 0.0203max 0.0209min 0.0195dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.91μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0195 · 24h -4.83% · range $[0.0195, 0.0209]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 9 · down 16 (36% up) · range [0.0194, 0.0215] · σ=0.0004 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=39%STRONG BEARISH -5.07%CLOSE 0.0195 vs OPEN 0.0205 (-5.07%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.01950.02150.02100.02050.02000.0194μ close = 0.0203O0.021 H0.021 L0.020 C0.021 (+0.64%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.020 C0.021 (+0.64%)O0.021 H0.022 L0.021 C0.021 (+1.09%)O0.021 H0.022 L0.021 C0.021 (+1.09%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.021 C0.021 (-0.57%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.021 C0.021 (-0.57%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.021 C0.021 (-0.60%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.021 C0.021 (-0.60%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.021 C0.021 (-0.51%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.021 C0.021 (-0.51%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.021 C0.021 (+0.43%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.021 C0.021 (+0.43%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.021 C0.021 (+0.13%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.021 C0.021 (+0.13%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.020 C0.021 (+0.50%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.020 C0.021 (+0.50%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.021 C0.021 (-0.97%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.021 C0.021 (-0.97%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.020 C0.020 (-0.38%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.020 C0.020 (-0.38%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-0.22%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-0.22%)O0.020 H0.021 L0.020 C0.020 (+0.11%)O0.020 H0.021 L0.020 C0.020 (+0.11%)O0.020 H0.021 L0.020 C0.020 (-0.85%)O0.020 H0.021 L0.020 C0.020 (-0.85%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-0.03%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-0.03%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-0.63%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-0.63%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (+0.02%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (+0.02%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-0.19%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-0.19%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-0.05%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-0.05%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-0.25%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-0.25%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (+0.28%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (+0.28%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-0.38%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-0.38%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-0.07%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-0.07%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-1.43%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-1.43%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (+0.32%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (+0.32%)-1.8%O0.020 H0.020 L0.019 C0.019 (-1.78%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.019 C0.019 (-1.78%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=9,051,063 · μ=362042.5 · σ=308864.9 · CV=0.85BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=140356,759713,5181,070,2771,427,036μ = 362043151,740 · 10.6% peak151,740 · 10.6% peak947,631 · 66.4% peak947,631 · 66.4% peak518,854 · 36.4% peak518,854 · 36.4% peak152,642 · 10.7% peak152,642 · 10.7% peak166,274 · 11.7% peak166,274 · 11.7% peak132,725 · 9.3% peak132,725 · 9.3% peak125,034 · 8.8% peak125,034 · 8.8% peak216,560 · 15.2% peak216,560 · 15.2% peak454,547 · 31.9% peak454,547 · 31.9% peak78,616 · 5.5% peak78,616 · 5.5% peak798,517 · 56.0% peak798,517 · 56.0% peak343,049 · 24.0% peak343,049 · 24.0% peak249,321 · 17.5% peak249,321 · 17.5% peak345,941 · 24.2% peak345,941 · 24.2% peak374,159 · 26.2% peak374,159 · 26.2% peak531,267 · 37.2% peak531,267 · 37.2% peak1,427,0361,427,036 · 100.0% peak1,427,036 · 100.0% peak222,853 · 15.6% peak222,853 · 15.6% peak348,791 · 24.4% peak348,791 · 24.4% peak148,240 · 10.4% peak148,240 · 10.4% peak252,350 · 17.7% peak252,350 · 17.7% peak121,083 · 8.5% peak121,083 · 8.5% peak516,816 · 36.2% peak516,816 · 36.2% peak156,246 · 10.9% peak156,246 · 10.9% peak270,771 · 19.0% peak270,771 · 19.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 9051063 · peak 1427036 · CV 0.85

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0027 · σ=0.0062 · skew=-0.32 (symmetric) · kurt=0.22 (mesokurtic)65320 1-181.50bpbin -181.50bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -181.50bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak-156.21bp 1-130.93bpbin -130.93bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -130.93bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-105.64bpbin -105.64bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -105.64bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-80.35bpbin -80.35bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -80.35bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 5-55.07bpbin -55.07bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin -55.07bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak 6-29.78bpbin -29.78bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -29.78bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 3-4.50bpbin -4.50bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -4.50bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak20.79bp 546.08bpbin 46.08bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin 46.08bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak71.36bp 196.65bpbin 96.65bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 96.65bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 7 · negative 17
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.43 · kurt=0.64 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0195
Mid price
$0.0195
24h change
-4.83%
Mark–mid spread
4.10 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0205

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0203$95% CI: [0.0202$, 0.0204$]
σ STD DEV0.0004$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.73%
med MEDIAN0.0203$Q₁ 0.0201$ · Q₃ 0.0206$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0014$ · IQR 0.0006$ (1.349σ→0.0005$)
min 0.0195$Q₁ 0.0201$med 0.0203$Q₃ 0.0206$max 0.0209$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.320approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.749mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.07
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.85
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.98
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-35.02
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.243158%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.374
σᵣ STD / h0.649934%σ²ᵣ = 0.422×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.67×
σ ANNUALISED60.83%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.650%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-35.02negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-31.44downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.46approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.09leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.90
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-2130.07%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.21%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.210%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.782%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.594%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN6.69%23h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.210%VaR₉₉−1.782%ES₉₅−1.594%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 23h duration
PEAK2.09$
−6.69% drawdown over 23h
1.95$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.32× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.47× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +7.17% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
24.2 · oversold
Bollinger %B
-0.072 · below lower band
Bollinger upper
$0.0208
Bollinger MA
$0.0202
Bollinger lower
$0.0196

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.32 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.323within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.195lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.889strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-15.071significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.889
H = 0.889STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.323k=2+0.195k=3-0.262k=4+0.206k=5-0.2090+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=15.07)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.32 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=15.07)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$183.39k
Open interest (USD)
$369.36k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.50x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.09% · worst -1.94% · typical |Δ| 0.53%BEARISH SESSION -5.84%BEST+1.09%15hWORST-1.94%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.53%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-5.84%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.23% · Σ -1.87%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.23% · Σ -1.84%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.27% · Σ -2.13%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -5.84%+1.09%-5.84%1.09% · 15h1.09% · 15h1.09%15h★ BEST-0.50% · 16h-0.50% · 16h-0.50%16h-0.55% · 17h-0.55% · 17h-0.55%17h-0.53% · 18h-0.53% · 18h-0.53%18h0.49% · 19h0.49% · 19h0.49%19h-0.18% · 20h-0.18% · 20h-0.18%20h0.51% · 21h0.51% · 21h0.51%21h-0.91% · 22h-0.91% · 22h-0.91%22h-0.46% · 23h-0.46% · 23h-0.46%23h-0.18% · 00h-0.18% · 00h-0.18%00h0.41% · 01h0.41% · 01h0.41%01h-1.01% · 02h-1.01% · 02h-1.01%02h-0.05% · 03h-0.05% · 03h-0.05%03h-0.63% · 04h-0.63% · 04h-0.63%04h-0.27% · 05h-0.27% · 05h-0.27%05h-0.18% · 06h-0.18% · 06h-0.18%06h0.04% · 07h0.04% · 07h0.04%07h-0.10% · 08h-0.10% · 08h-0.10%08h0.39% · 09h0.39% · 09h0.39%09h-0.29% · 10h-0.29% · 10h-0.29%10h-0.21% · 11h-0.21% · 11h-0.21%11h-1.25% · 12h-1.25% · 12h-1.25%12h0.46% · 13h0.46% · 13h0.46%13h-1.94% · 14h-1.94% · 14h-1.94%14h▼ WORSTTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 1 · down max 5BREADTH29% up · 71% down
7 up bars · 17 down · best 1.09% · worst -1.94% · typical |Δ| 0.526%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -5.72%FINAL-5.72%MAX DD-6.74%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.09%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9428 · peak 1.0109 · range [0.9428, 1.0109]1.01090.9428break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0109UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -6.74% · significant0%-6.74%▼ TROUGH -6.74%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -6.74%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -6.74%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9428 (-5.72%) · max DD -6.74% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-40.08 · σ=21.18UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -46.71 (-0.31σ vs μ)82.8941.440.00-41.44-82.89μ = -40.08-4.13-4.13-23.66-23.66-31.14-31.14-29.30-29.30-20.54-20.54-23.52-23.52-39.58-39.58-63.53-63.53-60.65-60.65-55.31-55.31-55.42-55.42-82.89-82.89-79.04-79.04-34.39-34.39-24.81-24.81-21.69-21.69-39.99-39.99-25.15-25.15-46.71-46.71v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -46.709 · range [-82.89, -4.13] · μ -40.076 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=47.5500 · σ=15.8038 · range [22.0737, 88.5621] · R²=0.024▲ RISING +39.58%σ EXTREME 33.24%LAST 88.562188.562171.940055.317938.695822.0737μ = 47.5500max 88.5621min 22.0737dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 88.56% · range [22.07%, 88.56%] · μ 47.55% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.279 · σ=0.216MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.466 (-0.86σ vs μ)0.6350.3170.000-0.317-0.635μ = -0.279-0.160-0.1600.0090.009-0.347-0.347-0.323-0.323-0.187-0.187-0.200-0.200-0.403-0.403-0.357-0.357-0.563-0.563-0.569-0.569-0.635-0.635-0.279-0.279-0.012-0.0120.1580.158-0.332-0.332-0.340-0.3400.0410.041-0.346-0.346-0.466-0.466v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.466 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
2.0308
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3623
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.7193
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1196
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
0.4664
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9846
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.5725
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1158
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.9101
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0039
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.6131
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1067
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.509 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.63e-5 · top T=2.00h (56.2%) · top-3 cover 74.7%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)3.8e-42.8e-41.9e-49.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 7.37e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 7.37e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.84e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.84e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.24e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.24e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.99e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.99e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.77e-5 · 5.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.77e-5 · 5.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.70e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.70e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.88e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.88e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.35e-5 · 10.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.35e-5 · 10.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.05e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.05e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.18e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.18e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.64e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.64e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.79e-4 · 56.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.79e-4 · 56.2% energy50% by T=2.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 56.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.754e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-79.24×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -52.11400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.023
annualized -52.11
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -53.34σ ann 67% · Sortino -40.03 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-6401%-5105%-3808%-2512%-1216%81%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)67.3%Ann. vol σ-5334.3%Sharpe (ann)-4002.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0190.0190.0200.0200.0210.021t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:49:07 UTC
Snapshot age
3.0s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:49:10 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
7642cefea808d5795f84268f303c75a4db7646655c72f45ebb72ea8517b6bf40 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$2.84K
bid $2.31K · ask $524
Depth within 50bp
$34.97K
bid $19.11K · ask $15.86K
Mid price
0.019505
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
10.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.018
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.036
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-merl/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0195218.05bp0.0195294FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.01954218.75bp0.01957011FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.01957837.47bp0.01964520PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0194936.04bp0.0194933FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.01947913.26bp0.01946211FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.01944928.75bp0.01938820PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-merl/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$9.05M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-merl/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.513 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
7 / 17
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$2.17M
real volume
Sell weight
$6.73M
real volume
Net delta
$4.56M
sellers net
Imbalance
-51.29%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
51.3%
one-sided / toxic
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-merl/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 3.18% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 12:00:00Z2.0h0.020125→0.0194863.175%3
#22026-06-14 02:00:00Z4.0h0.020492→0.0200582.118%5
#32026-06-13 16:00:00Z3.0h0.020884→0.0205561.571%4

/api/asset/hl-merl/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
67.32%
σ per bar = 0.000294
Mean return (annualised)
-3590.87%
μ per bar = -0.000007
Sharpe (rf=0)
-53.34
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.05%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.02 over 3751 bars

/api/asset/hl-merl/risk · same metrics, JSON