HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

MINA

MINA-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-mina · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.96%
realized vol (ann.)
61.32%
max drawdown
3.04%
sharpe
-93.92
ulcer index
1.53%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.28%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-3776.59
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.84%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.84
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2030.41
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.84
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.96%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.40%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 41%
  • 24h change -3.96%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 23.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-mina/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.4s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.041
24h Δ · live
-3.96%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
MINA · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0427 · σ=0.0005 · range [0.0414, 0.0434] · R²=0.845▼ FALLING -4.27%σ NORMAL 1.15%LAST 0.04140.04340.04290.04240.04190.0414μ = 0.0427max 0.0434min 0.0414dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.85μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.04
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.0%Short fee 52.0%SHORT FEE52.0%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.0%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
52.0%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001187% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,865,410 · μ=74616.4 · σ=85936.7 · CV=1.15BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=120105,588211,177316,765422,353μ = 74616422,35350%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 422353 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.4s
$mark $
$0.0414
$mid $
$0.0414
◉prev-day close
$0.0431
Δ24h Δ %
-3.964%
$24h vol $
$79.07k
◐open interest $
$345.73k
%funding (1h)
0.001187%
%funding (yr)
+10.40%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0427 · σ=0.0005 · range [0.0414, 0.0434] · R²=0.845▼ FALLING -4.27%σ NORMAL 1.15%LAST 0.04140.04340.04290.04240.04190.0414μ = 0.0427max 0.0434min 0.0414dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.85μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0414 · 24h -3.96% · range $[0.0414, 0.0434]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 9 · down 16 (36% up) · range [0.0414, 0.0436] · σ=0.0005 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=48%STRONG BEARISH -4.20%CLOSE 0.0414 vs OPEN 0.0432 (-4.20%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.04140.04360.04300.04250.04190.0414μ close = 0.0427O0.043 H0.043 L0.043 C0.043 (+0.07%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.043 C0.043 (+0.07%)O0.043 H0.044 L0.043 C0.043 (+0.15%)O0.043 H0.044 L0.043 C0.043 (+0.15%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.043 C0.043 (-0.25%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.043 C0.043 (-0.25%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.043 C0.043 (-0.42%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.043 C0.043 (-0.42%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.043 C0.043 (-0.41%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.043 C0.043 (-0.41%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.043 C0.043 (+0.02%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.043 C0.043 (+0.02%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.043 C0.043 (-0.12%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.043 C0.043 (-0.12%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.043 C0.043 (+0.50%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.043 C0.043 (+0.50%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.043 C0.043 (-0.46%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.043 C0.043 (-0.46%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.043 C0.043 (-0.35%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.043 C0.043 (-0.35%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.043 C0.043 (-0.53%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.043 C0.043 (-0.53%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.043 C0.043 (+0.25%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.043 C0.043 (+0.25%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.043 C0.043 (-0.23%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.043 C0.043 (-0.23%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.043 C0.043 (+0.32%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.043 C0.043 (+0.32%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.043 C0.043 (-0.86%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.043 C0.043 (-0.86%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.042 C0.043 (-0.22%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.042 C0.043 (-0.22%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.043 C0.043 (+0.15%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.043 C0.043 (+0.15%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.042 C0.042 (-0.63%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.042 C0.042 (-0.63%)O0.042 H0.043 L0.042 C0.043 (+0.34%)O0.042 H0.043 L0.042 C0.043 (+0.34%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.042 C0.042 (-0.13%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.042 C0.042 (-0.13%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.042 C0.042 (-0.34%)O0.043 H0.043 L0.042 C0.042 (-0.34%)O0.042 H0.043 L0.042 C0.042 (+0.06%)O0.042 H0.043 L0.042 C0.042 (+0.06%)-1.4%O0.042 H0.042 L0.042 C0.042 (-1.35%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.042 C0.042 (-1.35%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.042 C0.042 (-0.32%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.042 C0.042 (-0.32%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.041 C0.041 (-0.82%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.041 C0.041 (-0.82%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,865,410 · μ=74616.4 · σ=85936.7 · CV=1.15BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=120105,588211,177316,765422,353μ = 7461621,321 · 5.0% peak21,321 · 5.0% peak25,109 · 5.9% peak25,109 · 5.9% peak422,353422,353 · 100.0% peak422,353 · 100.0% peak163,398 · 38.7% peak163,398 · 38.7% peak19,288 · 4.6% peak19,288 · 4.6% peak34,993 · 8.3% peak34,993 · 8.3% peak17,851 · 4.2% peak17,851 · 4.2% peak25,533 · 6.0% peak25,533 · 6.0% peak16,915 · 4.0% peak16,915 · 4.0% peak103,141 · 24.4% peak103,141 · 24.4% peak70,888 · 16.8% peak70,888 · 16.8% peak25,987 · 6.2% peak25,987 · 6.2% peak27,527 · 6.5% peak27,527 · 6.5% peak86,608 · 20.5% peak86,608 · 20.5% peak33,177 · 7.9% peak33,177 · 7.9% peak144,233 · 34.1% peak144,233 · 34.1% peak39,170 · 9.3% peak39,170 · 9.3% peak15,412 · 3.6% peak15,412 · 3.6% peak119,822 · 28.4% peak119,822 · 28.4% peak109,895 · 26.0% peak109,895 · 26.0% peak23,981 · 5.7% peak23,981 · 5.7% peak56,529 · 13.4% peak56,529 · 13.4% peak131,523 · 31.1% peak131,523 · 31.1% peak104,678 · 24.8% peak104,678 · 24.8% peak26,078 · 6.2% peak26,078 · 6.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1865410 · peak 422353 · CV 1.15

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0019 · σ=0.0042 · skew=-0.10 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.40 (mesokurtic)54310 1-109.71bpbin -109.71bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -109.71bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-94.30bpbin -94.30bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -94.30bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-78.89bp 3-63.48bpbin -63.48bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -63.48bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 1-48.07bpbin -48.07bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -48.07bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 5-32.66bpbin -32.66bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -32.66bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 4-17.25bpbin -17.25bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -17.25bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 3-1.84bpbin -1.84bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -1.84bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 113.57bpbin 13.57bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 13.57bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 228.97bpbin 28.97bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 28.97bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 244.38bpbin 44.38bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 44.38bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 159.79bpbin 59.79bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 59.79bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 7 · negative 17
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.13 · kurt=-0.21 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0414
Mid price
$0.0414
24h change
-3.96%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0431

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.83)
μ MEAN0.0427$95% CI: [0.0425$, 0.0429$]
σ STD DEV0.0005$σ² = 0.002×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.15%
med MEDIAN0.0428$Q₁ 0.0425$ · Q₃ 0.0430$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0020$ · IQR 0.0005$ (1.349σ→0.0007$)
min 0.0414$Q₁ 0.0425$med 0.0428$Q₃ 0.0430$max 0.0434$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.831left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.255mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.07
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.24
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.10
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-38.33
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.181764%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.410
σᵣ STD / h0.443811%σ²ᵣ = 0.197×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.44×
σ ANNUALISED41.54%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.444%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-38.33negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-34.09downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.14approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.04mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.89
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1592.25%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.88%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.885%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.115%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.046%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.62%23h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.885%VaR₉₉−1.115%ES₉₅−1.046%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 23h duration
PEAK4.34$
−4.62% drawdown over 23h
4.14$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.18× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.26× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.84% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
21.8 · oversold
Bollinger %B
-0.144 · below lower band
Bollinger upper
$0.0435
Bollinger MA
$0.0426
Bollinger lower
$0.0417

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.26 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.262within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.222lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.942strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-11.215significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.942
H = 0.942STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.262k=2+0.222k=3-0.140k=4-0.167k=5+0.1660+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=11.22)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.26 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=11.22)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$79.07k
Open interest (USD)
$345.73k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.23x
1h funding
0.001187%
Funding (annualised)
+10.40%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.67% · worst -1.17% · typical |Δ| 0.38%BEARISH SESSION -4.36%BEST+0.67%21hWORST-1.17%12hTYPICAL |Δ|0.38%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-4.36%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 6down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.15% · Σ -1.17%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.24% · Σ -1.93%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.16% · Σ -1.26%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -4.36%+0.37%-4.36%0.37% · 15h0.37% · 15h0.37%15h-0.15% · 16h-0.15% · 16h-0.15%16h-0.47% · 17h-0.47% · 17h-0.47%17h-0.30% · 18h-0.30% · 18h-0.30%18h0.01% · 19h0.01% · 19h0.01%19h-0.15% · 20h-0.15% · 20h-0.15%20h0.67% · 21h0.67% · 21h0.67%21h★ BEST-0.58% · 22h-0.58% · 22h-0.58%22h-0.29% · 23h-0.29% · 23h-0.29%23h-0.34% · 00h-0.34% · 00h-0.34%00h0.38% · 01h0.38% · 01h0.38%01h-0.35% · 02h-0.35% · 02h-0.35%02h0.45% · 03h0.45% · 03h0.45%03h-0.70% · 04h-0.70% · 04h-0.70%04h-0.19% · 05h-0.19% · 05h-0.19%05h0.18% · 06h0.18% · 06h0.18%06h-0.60% · 07h-0.60% · 07h-0.60%07h0.35% · 08h0.35% · 08h0.35%08h-0.09% · 09h-0.09% · 09h-0.09%09h-0.17% · 10h-0.17% · 10h-0.17%10h-0.04% · 11h-0.04% · 11h-0.04%11h-1.17% · 12h-1.17% · 12h-1.17%12h▼ WORST-0.26% · 13h-0.26% · 13h-0.26%13h-0.92% · 14h-0.92% · 14h-0.92%14hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+-1.17%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 6BREADTH29% up · 71% down
7 up bars · 17 down · best 0.67% · worst -1.17% · typical |Δ| 0.383%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-4.29%)FINAL-4.29%MAX DD-4.64%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.37%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 6EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9571 · peak 1.0037 · range [0.9571, 1.0037]1.00370.9571break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0037UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.64% · moderate0%-4.64%▼ TROUGH -4.64%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -4.64%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.64%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9571 (-4.29%) · max DD -4.64% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-29.68 · σ=17.96UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -85.89 (-3.13σ vs μ)85.8942.950.00-42.95-85.89μ = -29.68-37.95-37.95-15.38-15.38-28.50-28.50-23.14-23.14-24.28-24.28-9.79-9.79-15.85-15.85-26.65-26.65-29.09-29.09-25.96-25.96-7.79-7.79-42.35-42.35-16.31-16.31-39.31-39.31-24.71-24.71-17.71-17.71-50.86-50.86-42.51-42.51-85.89-85.89v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -85.892 · range [-85.89, -7.79] · μ -29.685 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=40.8042 · σ=5.9094 · range [26.9450, 49.6380] · R²=0.081▲ RISING +67.12%σ HIGH 14.48%LAST 45.029649.638043.964838.291532.618226.9450μ = 40.8042max 49.6380min 26.9450dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.08μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 45.03% · range [26.94%, 49.64%] · μ 40.80% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.371 · σ=0.237MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.273 (+0.42σ vs μ)0.7190.3600.000-0.360-0.719μ = -0.3710.0850.0850.0550.055-0.335-0.335-0.377-0.377-0.301-0.301-0.340-0.340-0.385-0.385-0.270-0.270-0.616-0.616-0.637-0.637-0.529-0.529-0.576-0.576-0.547-0.547-0.385-0.385-0.719-0.719-0.685-0.685-0.176-0.176-0.045-0.045-0.273-0.273v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.273 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.0800
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9608
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.6155
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3453
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
0.8120
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9990
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.5725
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1158
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8667
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0049
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.9014
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3674
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.726 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.20e-5 · top T=2.00h (28.5%) · top-3 cover 60.3%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)7.5e-55.6e-53.8e-51.9e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.19e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.19e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.26e-6 · 3.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.26e-6 · 3.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.65e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.65e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.78e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.78e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.29e-5 · 8.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.29e-5 · 8.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.64e-8 · 0.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.64e-8 · 0.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.21e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.21e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.38e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.38e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.37e-5 · 12.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.37e-5 · 12.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.06e-5 · 19.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.06e-5 · 19.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.18e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.18e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.51e-5 · 28.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.51e-5 · 28.5% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 28.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.641e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-133.87×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -60.35400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.026
annualized -60.35
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -66.86σ ann 50% · Sortino -45.09 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-8023%-6407%-4790%-3173%-1557%60%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)49.9%Ann. vol σ-6686.2%Sharpe (ann)-4508.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0400.0410.0420.0430.0440.045t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:48:51 UTC
Snapshot age
1.4s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:48:53 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
c5c119cd457f74eda5f537328d5a35ad65c5eefd475556ffa728bee50dd40bf2 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.23K
bid $483 · ask $745
Depth within 10bp
$4.74K
bid $1.94K · ask $2.80K
Depth within 50bp
$15.56K
bid $7.26K · ask $8.30K
Mid price
0.041434
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
7.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.000
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.198
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-mina/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0414544.92bp0.0414713FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.04155429.06bp0.04189815FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.041964127.81bp0.04257820PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0414086.24bp0.0413982FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.04125642.93bp0.04079915FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.040778158.23bp0.04005520PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.187e-5
0.00119% / hr
Annualised APR
10.406%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
35.1d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
35.1d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.406%35.1d351.0d
SHORTRECEIVE10.406%35.1d351.0d

/api/asset/hl-mina/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.87M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-mina/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.613 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
7 / 17
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$357.22K
real volume
Sell weight
$1.49M
real volume
Net delta
$1.13M
sellers net
Imbalance
-61.26%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
61.3%
one-sided / toxic
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-mina/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.52% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 12:00:00Z2.0h0.042496→0.0414232.525%3
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z3.0h0.042944→0.0423871.297%4
#32026-06-13 22:00:00Z2.0h0.043259→0.0427401.200%3

/api/asset/hl-mina/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
49.95%
σ per bar = 0.000218
Mean return (annualised)
-3339.50%
μ per bar = -0.000006
Sharpe (rf=0)
-66.86
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.68%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.04 over 4878 bars

/api/asset/hl-mina/risk · same metrics, JSON