HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

MOVE

MOVE-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-move · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.85%
realized vol (ann.)
52.13%
max drawdown
0.92%
sharpe
-34.86
ulcer index
0.33%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.27%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-5544.36
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.64%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.94
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2818.57
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.94
upside/downside
roll spread
1.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.85%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-228.92%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 40%
  • 24h change -1.85%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 37.9bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-move/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.9s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.012
24h Δ · live
-1.85%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
MOVE · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0121 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0118, 0.0124] · R²=0.926▼ FALLING -3.32%σ NORMAL 1.37%LAST 0.01180.01240.01220.01210.01200.0118μ = 0.0121max 0.0124min 0.0118dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.93μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.9%Short fee 50.1%SHORT FEE50.1%
Σ = 0.1%
Σ-sides total = 0.05% (99.95pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.9%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.1%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.026132% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=10,794,277 · μ=431771.1 · σ=324025.2 · CV=0.75STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=120321,774643,548965,3211,287,095μ = 4317711,287,09550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1287095 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.9s
$mark $
$0.0118
$mid $
$0.0118
◉prev-day close
$0.012
Δ24h Δ %
-1.852%
$24h vol $
$130.62k
◐open interest $
$387.16k
%funding (1h)
-0.026132%
%funding (yr)
-228.92%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0121 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0118, 0.0124] · R²=0.926▼ FALLING -3.32%σ NORMAL 1.37%LAST 0.01180.01240.01220.01210.01200.0118μ = 0.0121max 0.0124min 0.0118dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.93μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0118 · 24h -1.85% · range $[0.0118, 0.0124]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.0118, 0.0124] · σ=0.0002 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=48%BEARISH -1.86%CLOSE 0.0118 vs OPEN 0.0120 (-1.86%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.01180.01240.01230.01210.01200.0118μ close = 0.01211.5%O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+1.51%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+1.51%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.65%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.65%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.62%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.62%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.71%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.71%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.38%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.38%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.87%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.87%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.24%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.24%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.40%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.40%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.16%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.16%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.09%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.09%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.07%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.07%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.13%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.13%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.34%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.34%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-1.26%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-1.26%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.05%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.05%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.39%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.39%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.18%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.18%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.57%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.57%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.45%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.45%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.08%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.08%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.41%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.41%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.34%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.34%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.13%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.13%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.53%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.53%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.08%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.08%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=10,794,277 · μ=431771.1 · σ=324025.2 · CV=0.75STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=120321,774643,548965,3211,287,095μ = 4317711,148,052 · 89.2% peak1,148,052 · 89.2% peak463,814 · 36.0% peak463,814 · 36.0% peak646,221 · 50.2% peak646,221 · 50.2% peak193,163 · 15.0% peak193,163 · 15.0% peak276,663 · 21.5% peak276,663 · 21.5% peak395,996 · 30.8% peak395,996 · 30.8% peak311,626 · 24.2% peak311,626 · 24.2% peak242,604 · 18.8% peak242,604 · 18.8% peak181,428 · 14.1% peak181,428 · 14.1% peak261,560 · 20.3% peak261,560 · 20.3% peak453,333 · 35.2% peak453,333 · 35.2% peak1,287,0951,287,095 · 100.0% peak1,287,095 · 100.0% peak236,463 · 18.4% peak236,463 · 18.4% peak1,011,906 · 78.6% peak1,011,906 · 78.6% peak271,273 · 21.1% peak271,273 · 21.1% peak177,171 · 13.8% peak177,171 · 13.8% peak733,040 · 57.0% peak733,040 · 57.0% peak433,069 · 33.6% peak433,069 · 33.6% peak418,470 · 32.5% peak418,470 · 32.5% peak254,899 · 19.8% peak254,899 · 19.8% peak739,125 · 57.4% peak739,125 · 57.4% peak232,598 · 18.1% peak232,598 · 18.1% peak230,578 · 17.9% peak230,578 · 17.9% peak190,297 · 14.8% peak190,297 · 14.8% peak3,833 · 0.3% peak3,833 · 0.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 10794277 · peak 1287095 · CV 0.75

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0015 · σ=0.0045 · skew=-0.34 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.65 (mesokurtic)54310 1-118.37bpbin -118.37bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -118.37bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-102.40bp 1-86.44bpbin -86.44bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -86.44bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2-70.47bpbin -70.47bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -70.47bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2-54.50bpbin -54.50bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -54.50bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2-38.54bpbin -38.54bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -38.54bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 5-22.57bpbin -22.57bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -22.57bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 1-6.61bpbin -6.61bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -6.61bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 39.36bpbin 9.36bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 9.36bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 225.32bpbin 25.32bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 25.32bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 441.29bpbin 41.29bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 41.29bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 157.25bpbin 57.25bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 57.25bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.44 · kurt=-0.30 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0118
Mid price
$0.0118
24h change
-1.85%
Mark–mid spread
2.54 bps
Prev-day close
$0.012

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.52)
μ MEAN0.0121$95% CI: [0.0120$, 0.0121$]
σ STD DEV0.0002$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.37%
med MEDIAN0.0121$Q₁ 0.0119$ · Q₃ 0.0122$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0005$ · IQR 0.0003$ (1.349σ→0.0002$)
min 0.0118$Q₁ 0.0119$med 0.0121$Q₃ 0.0122$max 0.0124$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.086approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.517platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.37
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.77
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.22
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-27.98
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.140751%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.299
σᵣ STD / h0.470855%σ²ᵣ = 0.222×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.35×
σ ANNUALISED44.07%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.471%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-27.98negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-23.58downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.47approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.07mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.84
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1232.98%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.85%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.846%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.171%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.063%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.32%22h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.846%VaR₉₉−1.171%ES₉₅−1.063%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 22h duration
PEAK1.24$
−4.32% drawdown over 22h
1.18$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.26× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.38× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.52% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
30.6 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.131 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0123
Bollinger MA
$0.0120
Bollinger lower
$0.0117

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.47 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.467negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.156lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.962strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-16.970significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.962
H = 0.962STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.467k=2+0.156k=3-0.015k=4+0.039k=5-0.1730+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=16.97)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.47 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=16.97)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$130.62k
Open interest (USD)
$387.16k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.34x
1h funding
-0.026132%
Funding (annualised)
-228.92%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.65% · worst -1.26% · typical |Δ| 0.39%MILD BEARISH -3.38%BEST+0.65%12hWORST-1.26%00hTYPICAL |Δ|0.39%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.38%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.33% · Σ -2.64%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.02% · Σ +0.20%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.12% · Σ -0.94%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.38%+1.04%-3.38%0.65% · 12h0.65% · 12h0.65%12h★ BEST0.39% · 13h0.39% · 13h0.39%13h-0.86% · 14h-0.86% · 14h-0.86%14h0.46% · 15h0.46% · 15h0.46%15h-0.76% · 16h-0.76% · 16h-0.76%16h0.25% · 17h0.25% · 17h0.25%17h-0.40% · 18h-0.40% · 18h-0.40%18h-0.17% · 19h-0.17% · 19h-0.17%19h0.05% · 20h0.05% · 20h0.05%20h-0.15% · 21h-0.15% · 21h-0.15%21h-0.13% · 22h-0.13% · 22h-0.13%22h0.37% · 23h0.37% · 23h0.37%23h-1.26% · 00h-1.26% · 00h-1.26%00h▼ WORST0.13% · 01h0.13% · 01h0.13%01h-0.47% · 02h-0.47% · 02h-0.47%02h-0.23% · 03h-0.23% · 03h-0.23%03h-0.65% · 04h-0.65% · 04h-0.65%04h0.39% · 05h0.39% · 05h0.39%05h-0.15% · 06h-0.15% · 06h-0.15%06h-0.40% · 07h-0.40% · 07h-0.40%07h0.19% · 08h0.19% · 08h0.19%08h0.09% · 09h0.09% · 09h0.09%09h-0.56% · 10h-0.56% · 10h-0.56%10h-0.15% · 11h-0.15% · 11h-0.15%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.20%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 0.65% · worst -1.26% · typical |Δ| 0.389%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-3.35%)FINAL-3.35%MAX DD-4.35%RECOVERYONGOING · 22 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.04%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9665 · peak 1.0104 · range [0.9665, 1.0104]1.01040.9665break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0104UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.35% · moderate0%-4.35%▼ TROUGH -4.35%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -4.35%bar 4-25 · 22 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.35%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9665 (-3.35%) · max DD -4.35% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-36.56 · σ=16.61UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -54.21 (-1.06σ vs μ)64.6032.300.00-32.30-64.60μ = -36.563.103.10-24.25-24.25-43.53-43.53-20.13-20.13-51.99-51.99-38.69-38.69-26.05-26.05-36.62-36.62-27.08-27.08-41.34-41.34-43.61-43.61-56.41-56.41-55.17-55.17-39.61-39.61-64.60-64.60-34.57-34.57-21.14-21.14-18.76-18.76-54.21-54.21v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -54.209 · range [-64.60, 3.10] · μ -36.561 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=42.7089 · σ=12.3732 · range [20.7673, 61.5986] · R²=0.129▼ FALLING -56.92%σ EXTREME 28.97%LAST 26.535061.598651.390841.183030.975220.7673μ = 42.7089max 61.5986min 20.7673dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.13μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 26.54% · range [20.77%, 61.60%] · μ 42.71% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.483 · σ=0.211MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.253 (+1.09σ vs μ)0.8700.4350.000-0.435-0.870μ = -0.483-0.460-0.460-0.870-0.870-0.804-0.804-0.701-0.701-0.533-0.533-0.402-0.402-0.030-0.030-0.347-0.347-0.548-0.548-0.623-0.623-0.640-0.640-0.710-0.710-0.448-0.448-0.417-0.417-0.342-0.342-0.436-0.436-0.420-0.420-0.200-0.200-0.253-0.253v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.253 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.8754
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6455
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.6390
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1760
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.2808
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9215
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.4330
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1518
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8971
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0042
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.1884
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0286
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.334 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.63e-5 · top T=2.00h (38.1%) · top-3 cover 70.3%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.2e-49.0e-56.0e-53.0e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 9.75e-6 · 3.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 9.75e-6 · 3.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.67e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.67e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.21e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.21e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.94e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.94e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.11e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.11e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.98e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.98e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.84e-5 · 18.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.84e-5 · 18.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.17e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.17e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.65e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.65e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.28e-5 · 13.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.28e-5 · 13.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.93e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.93e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.20e-4 · 38.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.20e-4 · 38.1% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 38.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.150e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-47.86×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -31.40400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.014
annualized -31.40
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -28.19σ ann 59% · Sortino -19.17 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3383%-2692%-2001%-1311%-620%71%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)58.9%Ann. vol σ-2818.9%Sharpe (ann)-1917.0%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0110.0120.0120.0120.0120.012t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:01:03 UTC
Snapshot age
1.9s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:01:05 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
aa7cec42529bcceee4971e63459e84f0ecc7fe078c8822a3dd645ddc8944a6a9 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$30.60K
bid $14.34K · ask $16.26K
Mid price
0.011815
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
23.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.091
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.191
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-move/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.01182912.02bp0.0118302FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.01184021.13bp0.01186710FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.01190575.94bp0.01196020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.01180012.48bp0.0117993FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.01179120.59bp0.0117848FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.01174658.68bp0.01169520PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-2.613e-4
-0.02613% / hr
Annualised APR
-229.074%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
1.6d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
1.6d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE229.074%1.6d15.9d
SHORTPAY-229.074%1.6d15.9d

/api/asset/hl-move/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$10.79M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-move/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.306 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$3.35M
real volume
Sell weight
$6.30M
real volume
Net delta
$2.95M
sellers net
Imbalance
-30.56%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
30.6%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-move/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 2.45% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 00:00:00Z4.0h0.012186→0.0118872.454%5
#22026-06-13 16:00:00Z4.0h0.012351→0.0121691.474%5
#32026-06-13 14:00:00Z0ms0.012351→0.0122450.858%1

/api/asset/hl-move/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
58.90%
σ per bar = 0.000257
Mean return (annualised)
-1660.27%
μ per bar = -0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
-28.19
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.64%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 4995 bars

/api/asset/hl-move/risk · same metrics, JSON