HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

NEO

NEO-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-neo · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.78%
realized vol (ann.)
39.02%
max drawdown
2.13%
sharpe
-93.14
ulcer index
0.85%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.67%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-4252.65
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.99%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.84
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1828.72
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.84
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.78%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
0.92%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 40%
  • 24h change -2.78%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 18.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-neo/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$2.148
24h Δ · live
-2.78%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
NEO · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=2.1950 · σ=0.0182 · range [2.1487, 2.2282] · R²=0.840▼ FALLING -2.85%σ LOW 0.83%LAST 2.14872.22822.20832.18852.16862.1487μ = 2.1950max 2.2282min 2.1487dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.84μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $2.15
Funding direction · live
Long fee 33.8%Short fee 66.2%SHORT FEE66.2%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.923 / 1.00 bits (92%) · high uncertainty
Long fee
33.8%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
66.2%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.000105% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=38,600 · μ=1544.0 · σ=906.7 · CV=0.59STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1101,2762,5533,8295,106μ = 15445,105.6950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 5106 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.5s
$mark $
$2.148
$mid $
$2.1479
◉prev-day close
$2.2094
Δ24h Δ %
-2.779%
$24h vol $
$83.26k
◐open interest $
$308.83k
%funding (1h)
0.000105%
%funding (yr)
+0.92%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=2.1950 · σ=0.0182 · range [2.1487, 2.2282] · R²=0.840▼ FALLING -2.85%σ LOW 0.83%LAST 2.14872.22822.20832.18852.16862.1487μ = 2.1950max 2.2282min 2.1487dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.84μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $2.1480 · 24h -2.78% · range $[2.1487, 2.2282]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [2.1426, 2.2314] · σ=0.0182 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=46%BEARISH -2.76%CLOSE 2.1487 vs OPEN 2.2098 (-2.76%)&#9660; CLOSE 2.14872.23142.20922.18702.16482.1426μ close = 2.1950O2.210 H2.215 L2.206 C2.212 (+0.09%)O2.210 H2.215 L2.206 C2.212 (+0.09%)O2.212 H2.230 L2.212 C2.228 (+0.71%)O2.212 H2.230 L2.212 C2.228 (+0.71%)O2.228 H2.231 L2.207 C2.217 (-0.50%)O2.228 H2.231 L2.207 C2.217 (-0.50%)O2.219 H2.219 L2.202 C2.205 (-0.60%)O2.219 H2.219 L2.202 C2.205 (-0.60%)O2.205 H2.213 L2.197 C2.201 (-0.17%)O2.205 H2.213 L2.197 C2.201 (-0.17%)O2.202 H2.221 L2.201 C2.211 (+0.42%)O2.202 H2.221 L2.201 C2.211 (+0.42%)O2.209 H2.213 L2.204 C2.207 (-0.13%)O2.209 H2.213 L2.204 C2.207 (-0.13%)O2.207 H2.224 L2.196 C2.215 (+0.34%)O2.207 H2.224 L2.196 C2.215 (+0.34%)O2.216 H2.219 L2.208 C2.208 (-0.39%)O2.216 H2.219 L2.208 C2.208 (-0.39%)O2.208 H2.210 L2.201 C2.203 (-0.22%)O2.208 H2.210 L2.201 C2.203 (-0.22%)O2.205 H2.208 L2.199 C2.202 (-0.15%)O2.205 H2.208 L2.199 C2.202 (-0.15%)O2.202 H2.216 L2.200 C2.207 (+0.22%)O2.202 H2.216 L2.200 C2.207 (+0.22%)O2.207 H2.213 L2.198 C2.200 (-0.31%)O2.207 H2.213 L2.198 C2.200 (-0.31%)O2.199 H2.202 L2.196 C2.200 (+0.06%)O2.199 H2.202 L2.196 C2.200 (+0.06%)O2.201 H2.201 L2.184 C2.184 (-0.75%)O2.201 H2.201 L2.184 C2.184 (-0.75%)O2.186 H2.194 L2.177 C2.189 (+0.17%)O2.186 H2.194 L2.177 C2.189 (+0.17%)O2.190 H2.199 L2.187 C2.188 (-0.08%)O2.190 H2.199 L2.187 C2.188 (-0.08%)O2.188 H2.189 L2.175 C2.179 (-0.42%)O2.188 H2.189 L2.175 C2.179 (-0.42%)O2.178 H2.193 L2.176 C2.185 (+0.32%)O2.178 H2.193 L2.176 C2.185 (+0.32%)O2.186 H2.191 L2.178 C2.188 (+0.12%)O2.186 H2.191 L2.178 C2.188 (+0.12%)O2.188 H2.191 L2.177 C2.177 (-0.53%)O2.188 H2.191 L2.177 C2.177 (-0.53%)O2.178 H2.184 L2.176 C2.178 (+0.00%)O2.178 H2.184 L2.176 C2.178 (+0.00%)O2.181 H2.189 L2.176 C2.177 (-0.17%)O2.181 H2.189 L2.176 C2.177 (-0.17%)O2.177 H2.180 L2.163 C2.164 (-0.57%)O2.177 H2.180 L2.163 C2.164 (-0.57%)-0.8%O2.167 H2.168 L2.143 C2.149 (-0.84%)O2.167 H2.168 L2.143 C2.149 (-0.84%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=38,600 · μ=1544.0 · σ=906.7 · CV=0.59STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1101,2762,5533,8295,106μ = 1544967.37 · 18.9% peak967.37 · 18.9% peak1,946.04 · 38.1% peak1,946.04 · 38.1% peak5,105.695,105.69 · 100.0% peak5,105.69 · 100.0% peak1,377.29 · 27.0% peak1,377.29 · 27.0% peak1,113.72 · 21.8% peak1,113.72 · 21.8% peak1,456.34 · 28.5% peak1,456.34 · 28.5% peak1,283.81 · 25.1% peak1,283.81 · 25.1% peak2,684.17 · 52.6% peak2,684.17 · 52.6% peak1,059.91 · 20.8% peak1,059.91 · 20.8% peak1,038.03 · 20.3% peak1,038.03 · 20.3% peak2,460.51 · 48.2% peak2,460.51 · 48.2% peak1,671.15 · 32.7% peak1,671.15 · 32.7% peak970.59 · 19.0% peak970.59 · 19.0% peak1,208.77 · 23.7% peak1,208.77 · 23.7% peak1,083.52 · 21.2% peak1,083.52 · 21.2% peak938.05 · 18.4% peak938.05 · 18.4% peak1,030.99 · 20.2% peak1,030.99 · 20.2% peak922.3 · 18.1% peak922.3 · 18.1% peak2,391.75 · 46.8% peak2,391.75 · 46.8% peak1,112.91 · 21.8% peak1,112.91 · 21.8% peak1,610.45 · 31.5% peak1,610.45 · 31.5% peak931.26 · 18.2% peak931.26 · 18.2% peak937.45 · 18.4% peak937.45 · 18.4% peak2,016.87 · 39.5% peak2,016.87 · 39.5% peak1,280.63 · 25.1% peak1,280.63 · 25.1% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 38600 · peak 5106 · CV 0.59

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0012 · σ=0.0036 · skew=0.24 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.76 (mesokurtic)43210 2-66.67bpbin -66.67bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -66.67bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 4-54.41bpbin -54.41bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -54.41bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 1-42.15bpbin -42.15bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -42.15bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 2-29.89bpbin -29.89bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -29.89bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 3-17.63bpbin -17.63bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -17.63bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 4-5.37bpbin -5.37bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -5.37bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 16.89bpbin 6.89bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 6.89bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 319.15bpbin 19.15bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 19.15bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 231.41bpbin 31.41bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 31.41bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 143.67bpbin 43.67bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 43.67bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak55.94bp 168.20bpbin 68.20bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 68.20bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 15
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.26 · kurt=-0.63 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$2.148
Mid price
$2.1479
24h change
-2.78%
Mark–mid spread
0.47 bps
Prev-day close
$2.2094

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.54)
μ MEAN2.1950$95% CI: [2.1879$, 2.2021$]
σ STD DEV0.0182$σ² = 3.300×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.83%
med MEDIAN2.2001$Q₁ 2.1844$ · Q₃ 2.2069$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0795$ · IQR 0.0225$ (1.349σ→0.0245$)
min 2.1487$Q₁ 2.1844$med 2.2001$Q₃ 2.2069$max 2.2282$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.535left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.169mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.28
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.09
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.38
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-29.16
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.120410%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.312
σᵣ STD / h0.386431%σ²ᵣ = 0.149×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.21×
σ ANNUALISED36.17%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.386%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-29.16negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-26.57downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.28approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.48mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.91
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1054.79%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.70%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.696%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.725%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.722%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.57%23h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.696%VaR₉₉−0.725%ES₉₅−0.722%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 23h duration
PEAK222.82$
−3.57% drawdown over 23h
214.87$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.04× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.04× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.70% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
27.6 · oversold
Bollinger %B
-0.115 · below lower band
Bollinger upper
$2.2246
Bollinger MA
$2.1905
Bollinger lower
$2.1565

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.188within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.190lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.830strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-10.974significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.830
H = 0.830STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.188k=2-0.190k=3+0.010k=4+0.118k=5-0.2150+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.97)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.85very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.97)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$83.26k
Open interest (USD)
$308.83k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.27x
1h funding
0.000105%
Funding (annualised)
+0.92%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.74% · worst -0.73% · typical |Δ| 0.33%BEARISH SESSION -2.89%BEST+0.74%15hWORST-0.73%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.33%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.89%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.14% · Σ -1.11%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.08% · Σ -0.64%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.14% · Σ -1.14%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.89%+0.74%-2.89%0.74% · 15h0.74% · 15h0.74%15h★ BEST-0.50% · 16h-0.50% · 16h-0.50%16h-0.52% · 17h-0.52% · 17h-0.52%17h-0.18% · 18h-0.18% · 18h-0.18%18h0.45% · 19h0.45% · 19h0.45%19h-0.21% · 20h-0.21% · 20h-0.21%20h0.36% · 21h0.36% · 21h0.36%21h-0.31% · 22h-0.31% · 22h-0.31%22h-0.22% · 23h-0.22% · 23h-0.22%23h-0.04% · 00h-0.04% · 00h-0.04%00h0.22% · 01h0.22% · 01h0.22%01h-0.31% · 02h-0.31% · 02h-0.31%02h0.00% · 03h0.00% · 03h0.00%03h-0.72% · 04h-0.72% · 04h-0.72%04h0.22% · 05h0.22% · 05h0.22%05h-0.05% · 06h-0.05% · 06h-0.05%06h-0.44% · 07h-0.44% · 07h-0.44%07h0.28% · 08h0.28% · 08h0.28%08h0.16% · 09h0.16% · 09h0.16%09h-0.52% · 10h-0.52% · 10h-0.52%10h0.05% · 11h0.05% · 11h0.05%11h-0.04% · 12h-0.04% · 12h-0.04%12h-0.58% · 13h-0.58% · 13h-0.58%13h-0.73% · 14h-0.73% · 14h-0.73%14h▼ WORSTTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+-0.64%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH38% up · 63% down
9 up bars · 15 down · best 0.74% · worst -0.73% · typical |Δ| 0.328%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.87%)FINAL-2.87%MAX DD-3.58%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.74%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9713 · peak 1.0074 · range [0.9713, 1.0074]1.00740.9713break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0074UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.58% · moderate0%-3.58%▼ TROUGH -3.58%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -3.58%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.58%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9713 (-2.87%) · max DD -3.58% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-26.56 · σ=18.47UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -68.42 (-2.27σ vs μ)68.4234.210.00-34.21-68.42μ = -26.56-6.80-6.80-22.91-22.91-16.82-16.82-5.35-5.351.321.32-11.89-11.89-16.74-16.74-49.17-49.17-51.63-51.63-27.09-27.09-27.31-27.31-58.96-58.96-28.18-28.18-20.94-20.94-15.63-15.63-24.96-24.96-24.75-24.75-28.39-28.39-68.42-68.42v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -68.421 · range [-68.42, 1.32] · μ -26.558 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=32.7360 · σ=6.0144 · range [19.5065, 48.5945] · R²=0.018▼ FALLING -27.24%σ EXTREME 18.37%LAST 35.357548.594541.322534.050526.778519.5065μ = 32.7360max 48.5945min 19.5065dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 35.36% · range [19.51%, 48.59%] · μ 32.74% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.328 · σ=0.169MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.065 (+1.56σ vs μ)0.5420.2710.000-0.271-0.542μ = -0.328-0.167-0.1670.0520.052-0.329-0.329-0.532-0.532-0.394-0.394-0.356-0.356-0.327-0.327-0.246-0.246-0.247-0.247-0.522-0.522-0.525-0.525-0.542-0.542-0.535-0.535-0.287-0.287-0.263-0.263-0.418-0.418-0.379-0.379-0.147-0.147-0.065-0.065v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.065 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.5478
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7604
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.9344
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5610
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
0.2183
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9740
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.6748
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0940
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8936
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0042
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.9152
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0555
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.417 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.68e-5 · top T=2.00h (29.6%) · top-3 cover 72.5%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)6.0e-54.5e-53.0e-51.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.33e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.33e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.94e-6 · 3.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.94e-6 · 3.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.77e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.77e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.26e-6 · 2.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.26e-6 · 2.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.74e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.74e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.24e-6 · 2.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.24e-6 · 2.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.89e-5 · 24.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.89e-5 · 24.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.76e-5 · 18.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.76e-5 · 18.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.09e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.09e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.73e-6 · 3.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.73e-6 · 3.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.70e-6 · 2.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.70e-6 · 2.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.97e-5 · 29.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.97e-5 · 29.6% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 29.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.016e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-170.90×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -61.32400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.027
annualized -61.32
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -61.45σ ann 36% · Sortino -37.79 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-7374%-5890%-4407%-2924%-1440%43%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)36.0%Ann. vol σ-6144.9%Sharpe (ann)-3779.3%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
2.0582.1032.1492.1952.2412.287t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:49:13 UTC
Snapshot age
1.5s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:49:14 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
cfba8ca05c7aecc8213f85f7df7348528c45660adda9c818c9fef355050c0d99 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.05K
bid $752 · ask $1.30K
Depth within 10bp
$3.75K
bid $2.06K · ask $1.69K
Depth within 50bp
$18.04K
bid $9.78K · ask $8.26K
Mid price
2.147900
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
7.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.303
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.528
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-neo/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K2.14873.72bp2.14871FILLED
BUY$10.00K2.154430.45bp2.165711FILLED
BUY$100.00K2.1933211.25bp2.240820PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K2.14694.80bp2.14645FILLED
SELL$10.00K2.142127.01bp2.135614FILLED
SELL$100.00K2.131277.73bp2.108920PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.046e-6
0.00010% / hr
Annualised APR
0.917%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
1.09y
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
1.09y
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-0.917%1.09y10.92y
SHORTRECEIVE0.917%1.09y10.92y

/api/asset/hl-neo/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$2.0000–$3.0000★25$38.60K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-neo/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.238 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
9 / 15
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$14.34K
real volume
Sell weight
$23.29K
real volume
Net delta
$8.95K
sellers net
Imbalance
-23.79%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
23.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-neo/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 1.81% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 12:00:00Z2.0h2.1882→2.14871.805%3
#22026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h2.2282→2.20151.198%3
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z0ms2.2069→2.18441.020%1

/api/asset/hl-neo/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
35.96%
σ per bar = 0.000157
Mean return (annualised)
-2209.46%
μ per bar = -0.000004
Sharpe (rf=0)
-61.45
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.55%
peak 2.20 → trough 2.14 over 4893 bars

/api/asset/hl-neo/risk · same metrics, JSON