HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ONDO

ONDO-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-ondo · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.03%
realized vol (ann.)
60.18%
max drawdown
1.38%
sharpe
-14.99
ulcer index
0.49%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.38%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1835.37
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.15%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.98
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-784.84
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.98
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.03%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -2.03%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 6.4bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ondo/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH755ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.358
24h Δ · live
-2.03%
24h vol · live
$5.1M
ONDO · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.3644 · σ=0.0050 · range [0.3572, 0.3747] · R²=0.815▼ FALLING -2.51%σ NORMAL 1.39%LAST 0.35720.37470.37030.36600.36160.3572μ = 0.3644max 0.3747min 0.3572dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.81μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.36
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=13,932,186 · μ=557287.4 · σ=413480.0 · CV=0.74STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=110346,268692,5361,038,8031,385,071μ = 5572871,385,07150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1385071 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
755ms
$mark $
$0.3577
$mid $
$0.3578
◉prev-day close
$0.3651
Δ24h Δ %
-2.032%
$24h vol $
$5.09M
◐open interest $
$9.66M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.3644 · σ=0.0050 · range [0.3572, 0.3747] · R²=0.815▼ FALLING -2.51%σ NORMAL 1.39%LAST 0.35720.37470.37030.36600.36160.3572μ = 0.3644max 0.3747min 0.3572dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.81μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.3577 · 24h -2.03% · range $[0.3572, 0.3747]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.3567, 0.3760] · σ=0.0050 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=44%BEARISH -2.17%CLOSE 0.3572 vs OPEN 0.3651 (-2.17%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.35720.37600.37120.36630.36150.3567μ close = 0.3644O0.365 H0.368 L0.364 C0.366 (+0.36%)O0.365 H0.368 L0.364 C0.366 (+0.36%)2.1%O0.367 H0.376 L0.366 C0.374 (+2.11%)O0.367 H0.376 L0.366 C0.374 (+2.11%)O0.374 H0.375 L0.370 C0.371 (-0.88%)O0.374 H0.375 L0.370 C0.371 (-0.88%)O0.371 H0.375 L0.370 C0.375 (+0.93%)O0.371 H0.375 L0.370 C0.375 (+0.93%)O0.375 H0.375 L0.371 C0.372 (-0.88%)O0.375 H0.375 L0.371 C0.372 (-0.88%)O0.372 H0.372 L0.365 C0.368 (-1.19%)O0.372 H0.372 L0.365 C0.368 (-1.19%)O0.367 H0.371 L0.365 C0.366 (-0.36%)O0.367 H0.371 L0.365 C0.366 (-0.36%)O0.366 H0.368 L0.365 C0.366 (-0.06%)O0.366 H0.368 L0.365 C0.366 (-0.06%)O0.366 H0.369 L0.365 C0.366 (-0.10%)O0.366 H0.369 L0.365 C0.366 (-0.10%)O0.366 H0.366 L0.363 C0.364 (-0.53%)O0.366 H0.366 L0.363 C0.364 (-0.53%)O0.364 H0.371 L0.362 C0.368 (+1.24%)O0.364 H0.371 L0.362 C0.368 (+1.24%)O0.369 H0.370 L0.365 C0.366 (-0.93%)O0.369 H0.370 L0.365 C0.366 (-0.93%)O0.365 H0.367 L0.363 C0.365 (-0.15%)O0.365 H0.367 L0.363 C0.365 (-0.15%)O0.364 H0.365 L0.362 C0.363 (-0.40%)O0.364 H0.365 L0.362 C0.363 (-0.40%)O0.363 H0.366 L0.361 C0.364 (+0.27%)O0.363 H0.366 L0.361 C0.364 (+0.27%)O0.363 H0.366 L0.363 C0.364 (+0.01%)O0.363 H0.366 L0.363 C0.364 (+0.01%)O0.363 H0.364 L0.360 C0.362 (-0.38%)O0.363 H0.364 L0.360 C0.362 (-0.38%)O0.362 H0.362 L0.357 C0.358 (-1.06%)O0.362 H0.362 L0.357 C0.358 (-1.06%)O0.358 H0.361 L0.357 C0.360 (+0.45%)O0.358 H0.361 L0.357 C0.360 (+0.45%)O0.360 H0.363 L0.358 C0.359 (-0.26%)O0.360 H0.363 L0.358 C0.359 (-0.26%)O0.359 H0.361 L0.357 C0.359 (+0.09%)O0.359 H0.361 L0.357 C0.359 (+0.09%)O0.358 H0.361 L0.358 C0.359 (+0.18%)O0.358 H0.361 L0.358 C0.359 (+0.18%)O0.359 H0.362 L0.357 C0.361 (+0.44%)O0.359 H0.362 L0.357 C0.361 (+0.44%)O0.361 H0.362 L0.358 C0.358 (-0.83%)O0.361 H0.362 L0.358 C0.358 (-0.83%)O0.357 H0.357 L0.357 C0.357 (-0.05%)O0.357 H0.357 L0.357 C0.357 (-0.05%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=13,932,186 · μ=557287.4 · σ=413480.0 · CV=0.74STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=110346,268692,5361,038,8031,385,071μ = 557287339,328 · 24.5% peak339,328 · 24.5% peak891,247 · 64.3% peak891,247 · 64.3% peak240,782 · 17.4% peak240,782 · 17.4% peak555,674 · 40.1% peak555,674 · 40.1% peak653,758 · 47.2% peak653,758 · 47.2% peak1,335,968 · 96.5% peak1,335,968 · 96.5% peak1,031,098 · 74.4% peak1,031,098 · 74.4% peak50,423 · 3.6% peak50,423 · 3.6% peak878,802 · 63.4% peak878,802 · 63.4% peak926,505 · 66.9% peak926,505 · 66.9% peak1,066,901 · 77.0% peak1,066,901 · 77.0% peak169,511 · 12.2% peak169,511 · 12.2% peak379,512 · 27.4% peak379,512 · 27.4% peak766,489 · 55.3% peak766,489 · 55.3% peak1,385,0711,385,071 · 100.0% peak1,385,071 · 100.0% peak160,400 · 11.6% peak160,400 · 11.6% peak888,974 · 64.2% peak888,974 · 64.2% peak215,998 · 15.6% peak215,998 · 15.6% peak94,787 · 6.8% peak94,787 · 6.8% peak286,039 · 20.7% peak286,039 · 20.7% peak394,600 · 28.5% peak394,600 · 28.5% peak281,303 · 20.3% peak281,303 · 20.3% peak813,835 · 58.8% peak813,835 · 58.8% peak122,352 · 8.8% peak122,352 · 8.8% peak2,829 · 0.2% peak2,829 · 0.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 13932186 · peak 1385071 · CV 0.74

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0010 · σ=0.0071 · skew=1.15 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.34 (leptokurtic (fat tails))54310 3-99.98bpbin -99.98bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -99.98bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 3-72.74bpbin -72.74bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -72.74bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 4-45.50bpbin -45.50bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -45.50bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 5-18.26bpbin -18.26bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -18.26bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 38.99bpbin 8.99bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 8.99bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 336.23bpbin 36.23bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 36.23bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak63.47bp 190.71bpbin 90.71bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 90.71bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1117.95bpbin 117.95bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 117.95bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak145.19bp172.43bp 1199.68bpbin 199.68bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 199.68bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 8 · negative 16
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.18 · kurt=1.38 · near 19 / mid 5 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00RIGHT-SKEWED · HEAVY POSITIVE TAILMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.3577
Mid price
$0.3578
24h change
-2.03%
Mark–mid spread
1.96 bps
Prev-day close
$0.3651

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.3644$95% CI: [0.3624$, 0.3664$]
σ STD DEV0.0050$σ² = 0.255×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.39%
med MEDIAN0.3640$Q₁ 0.3599$ · Q₃ 0.3664$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0175$ · IQR 0.0065$ (1.349σ→0.0068$)
min 0.3572$Q₁ 0.3599$med 0.3640$Q₃ 0.3664$max 0.3747$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.438approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.768mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.08
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.05
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.46
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-12.93
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.106062%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.138
σᵣ STD / h0.767832%σ²ᵣ = 0.590×10⁻⁴ · CV = 7.24×
σ ANNUALISED71.87%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.768%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-12.93negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-15.98downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.26right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.02leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.24
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-929.11%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.02%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.023%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.116%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.093%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.67%21h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.023%VaR₉₉−1.116%ES₉₅−1.093%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 21h duration
PEAK37.47$
−4.67% drawdown over 21h
35.72$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.07× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.09× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.90% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
39.5 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.121 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.3695
Bollinger MA
$0.3625
Bollinger lower
$0.3555

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.34 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.335within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.176lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.792strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-10.062significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.792
H = 0.792STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.335k=2+0.176k=3-0.167k=4-0.034k=5-0.2100+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.06)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.34 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.92very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.06)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$5.09M
Open interest (USD)
$9.66M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.53x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.13% · worst -1.14% · typical |Δ| 0.58%BEARISH SESSION -2.55%BEST+2.13%12hWORST-1.14%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.58%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.55%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.21% · Σ -1.65%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.12% · Σ +0.99%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.24% · Σ -1.89%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.55%+2.23%-2.55%2.13% · 12h2.13% · 12h2.13%12h★ BEST-0.85% · 13h-0.85% · 13h-0.85%13h0.95% · 14h0.95% · 14h0.95%14h-0.78% · 15h-0.78% · 15h-0.78%15h-1.14% · 16h-1.14% · 16h-1.14%16h▼ WORST-0.42% · 17h-0.42% · 17h-0.42%17h-0.09% · 18h-0.09% · 18h-0.09%18h-0.02% · 19h-0.02% · 19h-0.02%19h-0.54% · 20h-0.54% · 20h-0.54%20h1.29% · 21h1.29% · 21h1.29%21h-0.78% · 22h-0.78% · 22h-0.78%22h-0.19% · 23h-0.19% · 23h-0.19%23h-0.51% · 00h-0.51% · 00h-0.51%00h0.27% · 01h0.27% · 01h0.27%01h-0.13% · 02h-0.13% · 02h-0.13%02h-0.42% · 03h-0.42% · 03h-0.42%03h-1.05% · 04h-1.05% · 04h-1.05%04h0.48% · 05h0.48% · 05h0.48%05h-0.31% · 06h-0.31% · 06h-0.31%06h0.02% · 07h0.02% · 07h0.02%07h0.06% · 08h0.06% · 08h0.06%08h0.46% · 09h0.46% · 09h0.46%09h-0.87% · 10h-0.87% · 10h-0.87%10h-0.11% · 11h-0.11% · 11h-0.11%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.99%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 6BREADTH33% up · 67% down
8 up bars · 16 down · best 2.13% · worst -1.14% · typical |Δ| 0.579%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.58%)FINAL-2.58%MAX DD-4.70%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.23%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9742 · peak 1.0223 · range [0.9742, 1.0223]1.02230.9742break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0223UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.70% · moderate0%-4.70%▼ TROUGH -4.70%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -4.70%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.85%bar 3-3 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.70%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9742 (-2.58%) · max DD -4.70% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-31.31 · σ=29.15UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -26.52 (+0.16σ vs μ)110.8355.410.00-55.41-110.83μ = -31.31-1.16-1.16-48.24-48.24-32.12-32.12-110.83-110.83-17.57-17.57-11.85-11.85-7.21-7.21-15.77-15.77-9.46-9.46-1.00-1.00-75.76-75.76-71.51-71.51-38.04-38.04-33.34-33.34-43.26-43.26-36.62-36.62-9.46-9.46-5.21-5.21-26.52-26.52v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -26.516 · range [-110.83, -1.00] · μ -31.312 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=59.8589 · σ=19.5805 · range [33.8749, 120.2622] · R²=0.421▼ FALLING -65.27%σ EXTREME 32.71%LAST 41.7647120.262298.665477.068655.471733.8749μ = 59.8589max 120.2622min 33.8749dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.42μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 41.76% · range [33.87%, 120.26%] · μ 59.86% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.294 · σ=0.240MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.346 (-0.21σ vs μ)0.5970.2980.000-0.298-0.597μ = -0.294-0.248-0.248-0.299-0.299-0.003-0.0030.3740.374-0.110-0.110-0.594-0.594-0.597-0.597-0.537-0.537-0.557-0.557-0.353-0.353-0.187-0.1870.0360.036-0.346-0.346-0.307-0.307-0.412-0.412-0.324-0.324-0.382-0.382-0.403-0.403-0.346-0.346v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.346 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
10.3706
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0056
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.2465
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2823
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.0103
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7480
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.1574
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8749
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8311
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0060
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.6024
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1091
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.512 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.72e-5 · top T=2.18h (21.4%) · top-3 cover 57.2%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)1.5e-41.1e-47.3e-53.7e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.37e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.37e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.26e-5 · 6.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.26e-5 · 6.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.88e-5 · 5.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.88e-5 · 5.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.24e-5 · 9.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.24e-5 · 9.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.40e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.40e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.12e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.12e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.33e-5 · 9.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.33e-5 · 9.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.29e-4 · 18.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.29e-4 · 18.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.11e-5 · 1.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.11e-5 · 1.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.17e-4 · 17.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.17e-4 · 17.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.47e-4 · 21.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.47e-4 · 21.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.70e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.70e-5 · 2.5% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.18h#2T=3.00h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 21.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.865e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-61.42×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -35.15400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.015
annualized -35.15
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -35.46σ ann 58% · Sortino -29.46 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-4255%-3390%-2525%-1661%-796%69%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)57.7%Ann. vol σ-3546.1%Sharpe (ann)-2946.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.3430.3500.3570.3640.3720.379t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:01:21 UTC
Snapshot age
755ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:01:22 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
4acfc0d9c16dd6cff32da246ac75f4b47b04762787c8022dc6d6b2e108743107 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$13.16K
bid $7.67K · ask $5.49K
Depth within 10bp
$48.25K
bid $24.17K · ask $24.08K
Depth within 50bp
$92.36K
bid $55.91K · ask $36.45K
Mid price
0.357790
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.212
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.284
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ondo/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.3578732.33bp0.3579103FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.3579414.23bp0.3579909FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.3580828.16bp0.35829020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.3577112.20bp0.3576303FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.3576234.66bp0.3575307FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.35736911.76bp0.35708020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-ondo/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$13.93M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ondo/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.193 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
8 / 16
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$5.48M
real volume
Sell weight
$8.11M
real volume
Net delta
$2.63M
sellers net
Imbalance
-19.32%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
19.3%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ondo/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 2.94% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 15:00:00Z5.0h0.374720→0.3636902.944%6
#22026-06-14 03:00:00Z3.0h0.363980→0.3582301.580%4
#32026-06-13 22:00:00Z2.0h0.368430→0.3630001.474%3

/api/asset/hl-ondo/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
57.73%
σ per bar = 0.000252
Mean return (annualised)
-2047.28%
μ per bar = -0.000004
Sharpe (rf=0)
-35.46
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.23%
peak 0.36 → trough 0.36 over 3975 bars

/api/asset/hl-ondo/risk · same metrics, JSON