HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

OP

OP-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-op · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.07%
realized vol (ann.)
87.24%
max drawdown
1.24%
sharpe
40.51
ulcer index
0.49%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.40%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.05%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
7276.15
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.07%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.08
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
3300.93
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.08
upside/downside
roll spread
2.5 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.07%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 8.4bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-op/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.107
24h Δ · live
0.07%
24h vol · live
$1.1M
OP · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1071 · σ=0.0012 · range [0.1050, 0.1100] · R²=0.528▼ FALLING -0.62%σ NORMAL 1.12%LAST 0.10710.11000.10880.10750.10620.1050μ = 0.1071max 0.1100min 0.1050dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.53μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.11
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=10,521,706 · μ=420868.3 · σ=734134.4 · CV=1.74BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=80947,4551,894,9092,842,3643,789,819μ = 4208683,789,818.950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 3789819 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.2s
$mark $
$0.1071
$mid $
$0.1071
◉prev-day close
$0.107
Δ24h Δ %
+0.075%
$24h vol $
$1.13M
◐open interest $
$3.36M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1071 · σ=0.0012 · range [0.1050, 0.1100] · R²=0.528▼ FALLING -0.62%σ NORMAL 1.12%LAST 0.10710.11000.10880.10750.10620.1050μ = 0.1071max 0.1100min 0.1050dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.53μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1071 · 24h 0.07% · range $[0.1050, 0.1100]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [0.1044, 0.1124] · σ=0.0012 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=35%CONSOLIDATINGCLOSE 0.1071 vs OPEN 0.1070 (+0.12%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.10710.11240.11040.10840.10640.1044μ close = 0.1071O0.107 H0.110 L0.107 C0.108 (+0.75%)O0.107 H0.110 L0.107 C0.108 (+0.75%)O0.108 H0.109 L0.107 C0.108 (+0.48%)O0.108 H0.109 L0.107 C0.108 (+0.48%)O0.108 H0.110 L0.108 C0.110 (+1.67%)O0.108 H0.110 L0.108 C0.110 (+1.67%)-2.2%O0.110 H0.112 L0.107 C0.108 (-2.20%)O0.110 H0.112 L0.107 C0.108 (-2.20%)O0.108 H0.109 L0.107 C0.108 (-0.08%)O0.108 H0.109 L0.107 C0.108 (-0.08%)O0.108 H0.108 L0.106 C0.108 (+0.21%)O0.108 H0.108 L0.106 C0.108 (+0.21%)O0.108 H0.110 L0.107 C0.109 (+0.96%)O0.108 H0.110 L0.107 C0.109 (+0.96%)O0.109 H0.109 L0.108 C0.108 (-0.51%)O0.109 H0.109 L0.108 C0.108 (-0.51%)O0.108 H0.109 L0.107 C0.108 (-0.17%)O0.108 H0.109 L0.107 C0.108 (-0.17%)O0.108 H0.109 L0.107 C0.108 (-0.22%)O0.108 H0.109 L0.107 C0.108 (-0.22%)O0.108 H0.108 L0.107 C0.108 (+0.25%)O0.108 H0.108 L0.107 C0.108 (+0.25%)O0.108 H0.109 L0.107 C0.107 (-0.78%)O0.108 H0.109 L0.107 C0.107 (-0.78%)O0.107 H0.108 L0.107 C0.107 (-0.30%)O0.107 H0.108 L0.107 C0.107 (-0.30%)O0.107 H0.107 L0.106 C0.106 (-0.77%)O0.107 H0.107 L0.106 C0.106 (-0.77%)O0.106 H0.107 L0.106 C0.107 (+0.44%)O0.106 H0.107 L0.106 C0.107 (+0.44%)O0.107 H0.107 L0.106 C0.106 (-0.36%)O0.107 H0.107 L0.106 C0.106 (-0.36%)O0.106 H0.107 L0.106 C0.106 (-0.04%)O0.106 H0.107 L0.106 C0.106 (-0.04%)O0.106 H0.106 L0.105 C0.105 (-1.09%)O0.106 H0.106 L0.105 C0.105 (-1.09%)O0.105 H0.106 L0.104 C0.106 (+0.49%)O0.105 H0.106 L0.104 C0.106 (+0.49%)O0.105 H0.107 L0.105 C0.106 (+0.05%)O0.105 H0.107 L0.105 C0.106 (+0.05%)O0.105 H0.106 L0.105 C0.106 (+0.40%)O0.105 H0.106 L0.105 C0.106 (+0.40%)O0.106 H0.107 L0.106 C0.106 (+0.18%)O0.106 H0.107 L0.106 C0.106 (+0.18%)O0.106 H0.107 L0.106 C0.107 (+0.45%)O0.106 H0.107 L0.106 C0.107 (+0.45%)O0.107 H0.108 L0.106 C0.107 (+0.31%)O0.107 H0.108 L0.106 C0.107 (+0.31%)O0.107 H0.107 L0.107 C0.107 (+0.01%)O0.107 H0.107 L0.107 C0.107 (+0.01%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=10,521,706 · μ=420868.3 · σ=734134.4 · CV=1.74BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=80947,4551,894,9092,842,3643,789,819μ = 420868334,502.3 · 8.8% peak334,502.3 · 8.8% peak93,678.1 · 2.5% peak93,678.1 · 2.5% peak158,822.2 · 4.2% peak158,822.2 · 4.2% peak411,588.6 · 10.9% peak411,588.6 · 10.9% peak175,400.9 · 4.6% peak175,400.9 · 4.6% peak224,720 · 5.9% peak224,720 · 5.9% peak3,789,818.93,789,818.9 · 100.0% peak3,789,818.9 · 100.0% peak308,387 · 8.1% peak308,387 · 8.1% peak182,321 · 4.8% peak182,321 · 4.8% peak169,912.9 · 4.5% peak169,912.9 · 4.5% peak46,268.9 · 1.2% peak46,268.9 · 1.2% peak29,731.3 · 0.8% peak29,731.3 · 0.8% peak378,207.1 · 10.0% peak378,207.1 · 10.0% peak141,317.3 · 3.7% peak141,317.3 · 3.7% peak204,321.6 · 5.4% peak204,321.6 · 5.4% peak28,904.3 · 0.8% peak28,904.3 · 0.8% peak707,966.5 · 18.7% peak707,966.5 · 18.7% peak156,630.4 · 4.1% peak156,630.4 · 4.1% peak224,205.7 · 5.9% peak224,205.7 · 5.9% peak709,678.1 · 18.7% peak709,678.1 · 18.7% peak556,467 · 14.7% peak556,467 · 14.7% peak249,310.4 · 6.6% peak249,310.4 · 6.6% peak521,874.1 · 13.8% peak521,874.1 · 13.8% peak717,068.1 · 18.9% peak717,068.1 · 18.9% peak603.6 · 0.0% peak603.6 · 0.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 10521706 · peak 3789819 · CV 1.74

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0001 · σ=0.0068 · skew=-0.45 (symmetric) · kurt=1.56 (leptokurtic (fat tails))75420 1-196.93bpbin -196.93bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -196.93bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak-164.58bp-132.23bp 1-99.88bpbin -99.88bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -99.88bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 2-67.52bpbin -67.52bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -67.52bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 5-35.17bpbin -35.17bp · n=5 · 71.4% peakbin -35.17bp · n=5 · 71.4% peak 4-2.82bpbin -2.82bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin -2.82bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak 729.53bpbin 29.53bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin 29.53bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 261.88bpbin 61.88bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin 61.88bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 194.23bpbin 94.23bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 94.23bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak126.59bp 1158.94bpbin 158.94bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 158.94bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.49 · kurt=2.13 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1071
Mid price
$0.1071
24h change
+0.07%
Mark–mid spread
1.87 bps
Prev-day close
$0.107

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.1071$95% CI: [0.1067$, 0.1076$]
σ STD DEV0.0012$σ² = 0.014×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.12%
med MEDIAN0.1071$Q₁ 0.1061$ · Q₃ 0.1079$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0051$ · IQR 0.0018$ (1.349σ→0.0016$)
min 0.1050$Q₁ 0.1061$med 0.1071$Q₃ 0.1079$max 0.1100$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.244approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.493mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.01
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.91
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.25
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-3.33
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.025980%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.036
σᵣ STD / h0.729147%σ²ᵣ = 0.532×10⁻⁴ · CV = 28.07×
σ ANNUALISED68.24%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.729%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-3.33negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-2.99downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-49.29drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.53left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.95leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.90
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -49.29
EXPECTED EDGE-227.58%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.97%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.966%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.870%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.563%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.62%15h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.966%VaR₉₉−1.870%ES₉₅−1.563%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 15h duration
PEAK11.00$
−4.62% drawdown over 15h
10.50$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmoderate fat tail|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.62× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 1.94× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.84% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
51.5 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.564 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.1090
Bollinger MA
$0.1068
Bollinger lower
$0.1047

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.266within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.007lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.876strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.071significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.876
H = 0.876STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.266k=2-0.007k=3-0.205k=4+0.381k=5-0.0750+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.07)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.07)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.13M
Open interest (USD)
$3.36M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.34x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-4.887× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-2.443× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-1.222×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.75% · worst -2.13% · typical |Δ| 0.51%MILD BEARISH -0.62%BEST+1.75%13hWORST-2.13%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.51%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.62%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 7up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.10% · Σ -0.82%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.13% · Σ +1.04%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.11% · Σ -0.85%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.62%+2.06%-2.67%0.31% · 12h0.31% · 12h0.31%12h1.75% · 13h1.75% · 13h1.75%13h★ BEST-2.13% · 14h-2.13% · 14h-2.13%14h▼ WORST-0.02% · 15h-0.02% · 15h-0.02%15h0.20% · 16h0.20% · 16h0.20%16h0.86% · 17h0.86% · 17h0.86%17h-0.49% · 18h-0.49% · 18h-0.49%18h-0.19% · 19h-0.19% · 19h-0.19%19h-0.20% · 20h-0.20% · 20h-0.20%20h0.23% · 21h0.23% · 21h0.23%21h-0.80% · 22h-0.80% · 22h-0.80%22h-0.46% · 23h-0.46% · 23h-0.46%23h-0.64% · 00h-0.64% · 00h-0.64%00h0.41% · 01h0.41% · 01h0.41%01h-0.39% · 02h-0.39% · 02h-0.39%02h-0.12% · 03h-0.12% · 03h-0.12%03h-1.00% · 04h-1.00% · 04h-1.00%04h0.53% · 05h0.53% · 05h0.53%05h0.03% · 06h0.03% · 06h0.03%06h0.35% · 07h0.35% · 07h0.35%07h0.23% · 08h0.23% · 08h0.23%08h0.47% · 09h0.47% · 09h0.47%09h0.36% · 10h0.36% · 10h0.36%10h0.08% · 11h0.08% · 11h0.08%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.04%)RUNSup max 7 · down max 3BREADTH54% up · 46% down
13 up bars · 11 down · best 1.75% · worst -2.13% · typical |Δ| 0.510%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.68%)FINAL-0.68%MAX DD-4.66%RECOVERYONGOING · 22 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.06%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↗ 7EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9932 · peak 1.0206 · range [0.9731, 1.0206]1.02060.9731break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0206UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.66% · moderate0%-4.66%▼ TROUGH -4.66%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -4.66%bar 4-25 · 22 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.66%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9932 (-0.68%) · max DD -4.66% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-8.64 · σ=66.47MIXED EDGELAST 137.92 (+2.20σ vs μ)169.4884.740.00-84.74-169.48μ = -8.6411.7211.722.092.09-27.40-27.405.265.2613.4313.43-15.98-15.98-85.36-85.36-87.21-87.21-46.88-46.88-52.45-52.45-71.93-71.93-71.21-71.21-31.29-31.29-14.76-14.76-16.88-16.880.540.5416.8216.82169.48169.48137.92137.92v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 137.922 · range [-87.21, 169.48] · μ -8.637 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=53.6654 · σ=28.9795 · range [16.0309, 122.8871] · R²=0.430▼ FALLING -86.72%σ EXTREME 54.00%LAST 16.0309122.887196.173169.459042.745016.0309μ = 53.6654max 122.8871min 16.0309dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.43μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 16.03% · range [16.03%, 122.89%] · μ 53.67% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.278 · σ=0.145MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.170 (+0.74σ vs μ)0.5860.2930.000-0.293-0.586μ = -0.278-0.358-0.358-0.453-0.453-0.007-0.007-0.114-0.114-0.142-0.142-0.351-0.351-0.231-0.231-0.110-0.110-0.257-0.257-0.362-0.362-0.196-0.196-0.316-0.316-0.586-0.586-0.383-0.383-0.266-0.266-0.207-0.207-0.277-0.277-0.495-0.495-0.170-0.170v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.170 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
9.8038
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0074
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.8651
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1626
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.6569
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4586
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.6469
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0996
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6493
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0182
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.4923
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1356
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.546 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.33e-5 · top T=2.00h (38.9%) · top-3 cover 61.6%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)3.0e-42.2e-41.5e-47.4e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.01e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.01e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.12e-5 · 1.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.12e-5 · 1.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.31e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.31e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.98e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.98e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.08e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.08e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.11e-4 · 14.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.11e-4 · 14.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.52e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.52e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.06e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.06e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.32e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.32e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.82e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.82e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.05e-5 · 1.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.05e-5 · 1.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.95e-4 · 38.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.95e-4 · 38.9% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=4.00h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 38.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.591e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 5.80× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 5.68× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
5.80×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
5.68×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
2.90×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
1.45×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 1.42× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -1.15400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 1.42× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.000
annualized -1.15
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.05%
VaR 95%5%
0.07%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.10%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.2%
0.93×0.96×0.99×1.02×1.05×1.08×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 413% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 4.85σ ann 85% · Sortino 4.38 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%240%480%720%960%1200%413.5%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)85.3%Ann. vol σ484.8%Sharpe (ann)438.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1000.1030.1050.1080.1100.112t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:00:57 UTC
Snapshot age
2.2s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:01:00 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
4c926650aa85588814757ed99b655e87af08d7c12cd48c581d2ffb51a660de67 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$855
bid $765 · ask $90
Depth within 5bp
$2.88K
bid $2.79K · ask $90
Depth within 10bp
$19.75K
bid $4.73K · ask $15.02K
Depth within 50bp
$115.63K
bid $68.16K · ask $47.48K
Mid price
0.107170
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.181
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.520
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-op/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1072406.58bp0.1072503FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.1072638.64bp0.1072705FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.10735617.38bp0.10761020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1071551.39bp0.1071303FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1070887.65bp0.1070507FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.10691523.80bp0.10679020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-op/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$10.52M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-op/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.472 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$7.50M
real volume
Sell weight
$2.69M
real volume
Net delta
$4.81M
buyers net
Imbalance
47.18%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
47.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-op/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 2.94% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 22:00:00Z7.0h0.108130→0.1049502.941%8
#22026-06-13 14:00:00Z2.0h0.110030→0.1076902.127%3
#32026-06-13 19:00:00Z1.0h0.108840→0.1078800.882%2

/api/asset/hl-op/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
85.28%
σ per bar = 0.000372
Mean return (annualised)
413.46%
μ per bar = 0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
4.85
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.77%
peak 0.11 → trough 0.10 over 1199 bars

/api/asset/hl-op/risk · same metrics, JSON