HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

PEOPLE

PEOPLE-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-people · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.13%
realized vol (ann.)
50.85%
max drawdown
1.28%
sharpe
3.82
ulcer index
0.52%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.42%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
377.33
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.10%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.01
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
176.34
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.01
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.13%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -2.13%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 11.1bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-people/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.005
24h Δ · live
-2.13%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
PEOPLE · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0055 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0054, 0.0055] · R²=0.779▼ FALLING -1.49%σ LOW 0.78%LAST 0.00540.00550.00550.00540.00540.0054μ = 0.0055max 0.0055min 0.0054dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.78μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=18,182,818 · μ=727312.7 · σ=579902.9 · CV=0.80STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=130783,7821,567,5632,351,3453,135,126μ = 7273133,135,12650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 3135126 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.3s
$mark $
$0.0054
$mid $
$0.0054
◉prev-day close
$0.0055
Δ24h Δ %
-2.134%
$24h vol $
$99.34k
◐open interest $
$107.81k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0055 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0054, 0.0055] · R²=0.779▼ FALLING -1.49%σ LOW 0.78%LAST 0.00540.00550.00550.00540.00540.0054μ = 0.0055max 0.0055min 0.0054dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.78μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0054 · 24h -2.13% · range $[0.0054, 0.0055]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.0053, 0.0055] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=43%BEARISH -2.12%CLOSE 0.0054 vs OPEN 0.0055 (-2.12%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.00540.00550.00550.00540.00540.0053μ close = 0.0055O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.63%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.63%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.00%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.00%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (+0.25%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (+0.25%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (+0.02%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (+0.02%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (-0.11%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (-0.11%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (+0.45%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (+0.45%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.45%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.45%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.15%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.15%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.29%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.29%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (+0.51%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (+0.51%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.27%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.27%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.11%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.11%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.22%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.22%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.18%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.18%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.18%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.18%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.47%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.47%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.15%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.15%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.20%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.20%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.47%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.47%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.07%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.07%)-0.8%O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.81%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.81%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.15%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.15%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.70%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.70%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.54%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.54%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.11%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.11%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=18,182,818 · μ=727312.7 · σ=579902.9 · CV=0.80STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=130783,7821,567,5632,351,3453,135,126μ = 7273131,491,481 · 47.6% peak1,491,481 · 47.6% peak727,883 · 23.2% peak727,883 · 23.2% peak776,668 · 24.8% peak776,668 · 24.8% peak545,751 · 17.4% peak545,751 · 17.4% peak487,425 · 15.5% peak487,425 · 15.5% peak870,769 · 27.8% peak870,769 · 27.8% peak455,788 · 14.5% peak455,788 · 14.5% peak369,961 · 11.8% peak369,961 · 11.8% peak1,325,633 · 42.3% peak1,325,633 · 42.3% peak559,565 · 17.8% peak559,565 · 17.8% peak495,171 · 15.8% peak495,171 · 15.8% peak626,330 · 20.0% peak626,330 · 20.0% peak653,034 · 20.8% peak653,034 · 20.8% peak847,718 · 27.0% peak847,718 · 27.0% peak380,678 · 12.1% peak380,678 · 12.1% peak352,871 · 11.3% peak352,871 · 11.3% peak699,851 · 22.3% peak699,851 · 22.3% peak878,622 · 28.0% peak878,622 · 28.0% peak359,155 · 11.5% peak359,155 · 11.5% peak466,794 · 14.9% peak466,794 · 14.9% peak436,295 · 13.9% peak436,295 · 13.9% peak498,498 · 15.9% peak498,498 · 15.9% peak484,087 · 15.4% peak484,087 · 15.4% peak3,135,1263,135,126 · 100.0% peak3,135,126 · 100.0% peak257,664 · 8.2% peak257,664 · 8.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 18182818 · peak 3135126 · CV 0.80

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0007 · σ=0.0036 · skew=0.27 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.39 (mesokurtic)65320 1-74.59bpbin -74.59bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -74.59bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-61.33bpbin -61.33bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -61.33bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 2-48.06bpbin -48.06bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -48.06bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 2-34.80bpbin -34.80bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -34.80bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 6-21.53bpbin -21.53bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -21.53bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 1-8.27bpbin -8.27bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -8.27bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 44.99bpbin 4.99bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 4.99bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 318.26bpbin 18.26bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 18.26bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 131.52bpbin 31.52bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 31.52bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 144.79bpbin 44.79bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 44.79bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 158.05bpbin 58.05bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 58.05bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 171.32bpbin 71.32bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 71.32bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.22 · kurt=-0.19 · near 24 / mid 0 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0054
Mid price
$0.0054
24h change
-2.13%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0055

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.70)
μ MEAN0.0055$95% CI: [0.0055$, 0.0055$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.78%
med MEDIAN0.0055$Q₁ 0.0054$ · Q₃ 0.0055$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0002$ · IQR 0.0000$ (1.349σ→0.0001$)
min 0.0054$Q₁ 0.0054$med 0.0055$Q₃ 0.0055$max 0.0055$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.700left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.525mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.23
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.22
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.89
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-15.24
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.062646%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.163
σᵣ STD / h0.384820%σ²ᵣ = 0.148×10⁻⁴ · CV = 6.14×
σ ANNUALISED36.02%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.385%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-15.24negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-14.63downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.23approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.06mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.96
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-548.78%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.65%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.650%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.779%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.740%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.98%17h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.650%VaR₉₉−0.779%ES₉₅−0.740%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 17h duration
PEAK0.55$
−2.98% drawdown over 17h
0.54$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.14× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.20× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.07% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
41.0 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.236 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0055
Bollinger MA
$0.0055
Bollinger lower
$0.0054

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.33 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.333within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.161lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.887strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-9.013significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.887
H = 0.887STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.333k=2+0.161k=3-0.301k=4+0.156k=5-0.1640+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.01)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.33 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.01)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$99.34k
Open interest (USD)
$107.81k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.92x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.78% · worst -0.81% · typical |Δ| 0.31%MILD BEARISH -1.50%BEST+0.78%15hWORST-0.81%12hTYPICAL |Δ|0.31%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.10% · Σ -0.79%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.09% · Σ -0.72%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.50%+0.67%-2.36%0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.27% · 18h0.27% · 18h0.27%18h0.07% · 19h0.07% · 19h0.07%19h-0.16% · 20h-0.16% · 20h-0.16%20h0.49% · 21h0.49% · 21h0.49%21h-0.54% · 22h-0.54% · 22h-0.54%22h-0.20% · 23h-0.20% · 23h-0.20%23h-0.26% · 00h-0.26% · 00h-0.26%00h0.60% · 01h0.60% · 01h0.60%01h-0.35% · 02h-0.35% · 02h-0.35%02h-0.15% · 03h-0.15% · 03h-0.15%03h-0.16% · 04h-0.16% · 04h-0.16%04h0.09% · 05h0.09% · 05h0.09%05h-0.18% · 06h-0.18% · 06h-0.18%06h-0.38% · 07h-0.38% · 07h-0.38%07h0.22% · 08h0.22% · 08h0.22%08h0.20% · 09h0.20% · 09h0.20%09h-0.42% · 10h-0.42% · 10h-0.42%10h-0.17% · 11h-0.17% · 11h-0.17%11h-0.81% · 12h-0.81% · 12h-0.81%12h▼ WORST0.15% · 13h0.15% · 13h0.15%13h-0.67% · 14h-0.67% · 14h-0.67%14h0.78% · 15h0.78% · 15h0.78%15h★ BEST0.07% · 16h0.07% · 16h0.07%16hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.00%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH42% up · 54% down · 4% flat
10 up bars · 13 down · best 0.78% · worst -0.81% · typical |Δ| 0.308%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.51%)FINAL-1.51%MAX DD-3.00%RECOVERYONGOING · 19 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.67%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9849 · peak 1.0067 · range [0.9766, 1.0067]1.00670.9766break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0067UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.00% · moderate0%-3.00%▼ TROUGH -3.00%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.00%bar 7-25 · 19 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.16%bar 5-5 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.00%)RECOVERYongoing · 19 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.9849 (-1.51%) · max DD -3.00% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-28.01 · σ=25.84UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -17.24 (+0.42σ vs μ)104.0752.030.00-52.03-104.07μ = -28.015.565.56-3.08-3.08-26.78-26.78-2.50-2.50-8.43-8.43-35.36-35.36-23.16-23.16-9.90-9.90-6.77-6.77-104.07-104.07-40.92-40.92-14.01-14.01-25.68-25.68-41.16-41.16-53.39-53.39-31.18-31.18-63.80-63.80-30.27-30.27-17.24-17.24v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -17.243 · range [-104.07, 5.56] · μ -28.008 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=34.5693 · σ=10.1914 · range [15.8758, 54.9685] · R²=0.061▲ RISING +63.15%σ EXTREME 29.48%LAST 54.572554.968545.195335.422125.649015.8758μ = 34.5693max 54.9685min 15.8758dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.06μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 54.57% · range [15.88%, 54.97%] · μ 34.57% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.316 · σ=0.184MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.364 (-0.26σ vs μ)0.6130.3060.000-0.306-0.613μ = -0.316-0.552-0.552-0.340-0.340-0.408-0.408-0.337-0.337-0.438-0.438-0.263-0.263-0.432-0.432-0.513-0.513-0.316-0.3160.0110.011-0.392-0.392-0.042-0.042-0.214-0.214-0.122-0.122-0.013-0.013-0.164-0.164-0.613-0.613-0.497-0.497-0.364-0.364v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.364 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.2235
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8943
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.0779
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1507
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.9315
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7772
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.3023
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7624
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7893
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0076
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.3367
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1813
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.593 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.77e-5 · top T=2.00h (39.4%) · top-3 cover 61.7%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)8.4e-56.3e-54.2e-52.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 7.03e-6 · 3.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 7.03e-6 · 3.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.19e-5 · 5.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.19e-5 · 5.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.16e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.16e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.19e-6 · 3.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.19e-6 · 3.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.81e-6 · 4.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.81e-6 · 4.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.29e-5 · 6.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.29e-5 · 6.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.49e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.49e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.91e-6 · 3.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.91e-6 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.37e-6 · 3.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.37e-6 · 3.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.25e-5 · 15.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.25e-5 · 15.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.43e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.43e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.35e-5 · 39.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.35e-5 · 39.4% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 39.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.121e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-43.97×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -20.33400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.009
annualized -20.33
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -813% · APY -100% · Sharpe -18.91σ ann 43% · Sortino -10.28 · n 4999
-2269%-1805%-1341%-877%-413%52%-812.9%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)43.0%Ann. vol σ-1890.7%Sharpe (ann)-1028.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0050.0050.0050.0050.0060.006t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:01:51 UTC
Snapshot age
2.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:01:54 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
0b531e614475372e4f0702500cae9a56c27a566e32e0cbfa12f4f1be174644e8 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$1.39K
bid $702 · ask $686
Depth within 5bp
$3.91K
bid $2.29K · ask $1.62K
Depth within 10bp
$6.32K
bid $3.18K · ask $3.13K
Depth within 50bp
$33.27K
bid $19.49K · ask $13.79K
Mid price
0.005411
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.281
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.111
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-people/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0054121.84bp0.0054143FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00541913.96bp0.0054278FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.005494152.71bp0.00560220PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0054111.47bp0.0054102FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00540512.01bp0.00539911FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.00539334.09bp0.00532920PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-people/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$18.18M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-people/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.136 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 13
2 unclassified
Buy weight
$9.07M
real volume
Sell weight
$6.89M
real volume
Net delta
$2.18M
buyers net
Imbalance
13.64%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
13.6%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-people/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 1.90% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 11:00:00Z3.0h0.005471→0.0053671.901%4
#22026-06-13 22:00:00Z2.0h0.005532→0.0054770.994%3
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z0ms0.005510→0.0054740.653%1

/api/asset/hl-people/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
43.00%
σ per bar = 0.000188
Mean return (annualised)
-812.94%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-18.91
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.64%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 3652 bars

/api/asset/hl-people/risk · same metrics, JSON