HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

POL

POL-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-pol · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.70%
realized vol (ann.)
22.30%
max drawdown
0.43%
sharpe
67.93
ulcer index
0.17%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.14%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
8849.59
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.39%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.12
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
3883.77
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.12
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.70%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 11.3bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-pol/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.075
24h Δ · live
0.70%
24h vol · live
$0.2M
POL · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0754 · σ=0.0004 · range [0.0748, 0.0760] · R²=0.013▲ RISING +0.79%σ LOW 0.47%LAST 0.07530.07600.07570.07540.07510.0748μ = 0.0754max 0.0760min 0.0748dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.08
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=2,803,190 · μ=112127.6 · σ=82157.3 · CV=0.73STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=13082,253164,506246,758329,011μ = 112128329,01150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 329011 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.0s
$mark $
$0.0754
$mid $
$0.0754
◉prev-day close
$0.0748
Δ24h Δ %
+0.704%
$24h vol $
$210.24k
◐open interest $
$2.08M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0754 · σ=0.0004 · range [0.0748, 0.0760] · R²=0.013▲ RISING +0.79%σ LOW 0.47%LAST 0.07530.07600.07570.07540.07510.0748μ = 0.0754max 0.0760min 0.0748dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0754 · 24h 0.70% · range $[0.0748, 0.0760]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.0746, 0.0764] · σ=0.0004 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=45%BULLISH +0.66%CLOSE 0.0753 vs OPEN 0.0748 (+0.66%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.07530.07640.07600.07550.07510.0746μ close = 0.0754O0.075 H0.075 L0.075 C0.075 (-0.13%)O0.075 H0.075 L0.075 C0.075 (-0.13%)O0.075 H0.075 L0.075 C0.075 (+0.06%)O0.075 H0.075 L0.075 C0.075 (+0.06%)O0.075 H0.075 L0.075 C0.075 (+0.41%)O0.075 H0.075 L0.075 C0.075 (+0.41%)0.6%O0.075 H0.076 L0.075 C0.076 (+0.64%)O0.075 H0.076 L0.075 C0.076 (+0.64%)O0.076 H0.076 L0.075 C0.075 (-0.21%)O0.076 H0.076 L0.075 C0.075 (-0.21%)O0.075 H0.076 L0.075 C0.075 (-0.10%)O0.075 H0.076 L0.075 C0.075 (-0.10%)O0.075 H0.076 L0.075 C0.075 (-0.02%)O0.075 H0.076 L0.075 C0.075 (-0.02%)O0.075 H0.076 L0.075 C0.076 (+0.46%)O0.075 H0.076 L0.075 C0.076 (+0.46%)O0.076 H0.076 L0.076 C0.076 (+0.03%)O0.076 H0.076 L0.076 C0.076 (+0.03%)O0.076 H0.076 L0.076 C0.076 (+0.23%)O0.076 H0.076 L0.076 C0.076 (+0.23%)O0.076 H0.076 L0.076 C0.076 (-0.24%)O0.076 H0.076 L0.076 C0.076 (-0.24%)O0.076 H0.076 L0.076 C0.076 (-0.07%)O0.076 H0.076 L0.076 C0.076 (-0.07%)O0.076 H0.076 L0.076 C0.076 (-0.51%)O0.076 H0.076 L0.076 C0.076 (-0.51%)O0.076 H0.076 L0.076 C0.076 (+0.18%)O0.076 H0.076 L0.076 C0.076 (+0.18%)O0.076 H0.076 L0.076 C0.076 (-0.21%)O0.076 H0.076 L0.076 C0.076 (-0.21%)O0.076 H0.076 L0.076 C0.076 (+0.23%)O0.076 H0.076 L0.076 C0.076 (+0.23%)O0.076 H0.076 L0.075 C0.075 (-0.41%)O0.076 H0.076 L0.075 C0.075 (-0.41%)O0.075 H0.076 L0.075 C0.076 (+0.05%)O0.075 H0.076 L0.075 C0.076 (+0.05%)O0.076 H0.076 L0.075 C0.075 (-0.38%)O0.076 H0.076 L0.075 C0.075 (-0.38%)O0.075 H0.075 L0.075 C0.075 (-0.42%)O0.075 H0.075 L0.075 C0.075 (-0.42%)O0.075 H0.075 L0.075 C0.075 (+0.06%)O0.075 H0.075 L0.075 C0.075 (+0.06%)O0.075 H0.075 L0.075 C0.075 (+0.28%)O0.075 H0.075 L0.075 C0.075 (+0.28%)O0.075 H0.075 L0.075 C0.075 (-0.17%)O0.075 H0.075 L0.075 C0.075 (-0.17%)O0.075 H0.075 L0.075 C0.075 (+0.28%)O0.075 H0.075 L0.075 C0.075 (+0.28%)O0.075 H0.075 L0.075 C0.075 (+0.22%)O0.075 H0.075 L0.075 C0.075 (+0.22%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=2,803,190 · μ=112127.6 · σ=82157.3 · CV=0.73STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=13082,253164,506246,758329,011μ = 11212850,210 · 15.3% peak50,210 · 15.3% peak92,933 · 28.2% peak92,933 · 28.2% peak63,760 · 19.4% peak63,760 · 19.4% peak181,429 · 55.1% peak181,429 · 55.1% peak127,586 · 38.8% peak127,586 · 38.8% peak329,011329,011 · 100.0% peak329,011 · 100.0% peak61,550 · 18.7% peak61,550 · 18.7% peak102,554 · 31.2% peak102,554 · 31.2% peak42,077 · 12.8% peak42,077 · 12.8% peak116,969 · 35.6% peak116,969 · 35.6% peak85,582 · 26.0% peak85,582 · 26.0% peak114,322 · 34.7% peak114,322 · 34.7% peak177,775 · 54.0% peak177,775 · 54.0% peak49,394 · 15.0% peak49,394 · 15.0% peak56,596 · 17.2% peak56,596 · 17.2% peak119,732 · 36.4% peak119,732 · 36.4% peak110,263 · 33.5% peak110,263 · 33.5% peak60,898 · 18.5% peak60,898 · 18.5% peak46,050 · 14.0% peak46,050 · 14.0% peak74,366 · 22.6% peak74,366 · 22.6% peak51,858 · 15.8% peak51,858 · 15.8% peak281,988 · 85.7% peak281,988 · 85.7% peak300,769 · 91.4% peak300,769 · 91.4% peak43,876 · 13.3% peak43,876 · 13.3% peak61,642 · 18.7% peak61,642 · 18.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 2803190 · peak 329011 · CV 0.73

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0003 · σ=0.0030 · skew=0.15 (symmetric) · kurt=-1.01 (platykurtic (thin tails))43210 4-39.09bpbin -39.09bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -39.09bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 2-29.63bpbin -29.63bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -29.63bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1-20.17bpbin -20.17bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -20.17bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 4-10.70bpbin -10.70bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -10.70bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak-1.24bp 48.22bpbin 8.22bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 8.22bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 117.69bpbin 17.69bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 17.69bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 427.15bpbin 27.15bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 27.15bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 136.62bpbin 36.62bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 36.62bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 246.08bpbin 46.08bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 46.08bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak55.54bp 165.01bpbin 65.01bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 65.01bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.19 · kurt=-0.71 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0754
Mid price
$0.0754
24h change
+0.70%
Mark–mid spread
1.46 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0748

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.17)
μ MEAN0.0754$95% CI: [0.0753$, 0.0756$]
σ STD DEV0.0004$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.47%
med MEDIAN0.0755$Q₁ 0.0752$ · Q₃ 0.0757$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0012$ · IQR 0.0005$ (1.349σ→0.0005$)
min 0.0748$Q₁ 0.0752$med 0.0755$Q₃ 0.0757$max 0.0760$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.222approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.172platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.17
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.90
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.44
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=10.01
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.032813%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.107
σᵣ STD / h0.306750%σ²ᵣ = 0.094×10⁻⁴ · CV = 9.35×
σ ANNUALISED28.71%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.307%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)10.01excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)11.03strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.20approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.58mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.10
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+287.44%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKMODERATE · 95% VaR 0.41%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.409%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.432%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.424%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.42%10h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.409%VaR₉₉−0.432%ES₉₅−0.424%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 10h duration
PEAK7.60$
−1.42% drawdown over 10h
7.49$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.04× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.06× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.44% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
56.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.403 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0761
Bollinger MA
$0.0755
Bollinger lower
$0.0748

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.028within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.116lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.119strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.557fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.119
H = 1.119STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.028k=2+0.116k=3-0.231k=4+0.171k=5-0.1370+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.56)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.56)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$210.24k
Open interest (USD)
$2.08M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.10x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.70% · worst -0.44% · typical |Δ| 0.25%MILD BULLISH +0.79%BEST+0.70%15hWORST-0.44%07hTYPICAL |Δ|0.25%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.79%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.16% · Σ -1.26%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.23% · Σ +1.83%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.22%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.79%+1.63%0.00%0.08% · 13h0.08% · 13h0.08%13h0.46% · 14h0.46% · 14h0.46%14h0.70% · 15h0.70% · 15h0.70%15h★ BEST-0.28% · 16h-0.28% · 16h-0.28%16h-0.10% · 17h-0.10% · 17h-0.10%17h-0.08% · 18h-0.08% · 18h-0.08%18h0.47% · 19h0.47% · 19h0.47%19h0.06% · 20h0.06% · 20h0.06%20h0.32% · 21h0.32% · 21h0.32%21h-0.07% · 22h-0.07% · 22h-0.07%22h-0.11% · 23h-0.11% · 23h-0.11%23h-0.35% · 00h-0.35% · 00h-0.35%00h0.24% · 01h0.24% · 01h0.24%01h-0.27% · 02h-0.27% · 02h-0.27%02h0.29% · 03h0.29% · 03h0.29%03h-0.41% · 04h-0.41% · 04h-0.41%04h0.09% · 05h0.09% · 05h0.09%05h-0.40% · 06h-0.40% · 06h-0.40%06h-0.44% · 07h-0.44% · 07h-0.44%07h▼ WORST0.08% · 08h0.08% · 08h0.08%08h0.21% · 09h0.21% · 09h0.21%09h-0.16% · 10h-0.16% · 10h-0.16%10h0.23% · 11h0.23% · 11h0.23%11h0.23% · 12h0.23% · 12h0.23%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.83%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH54% up · 46% down
13 up bars · 11 down · best 0.70% · worst -0.44% · typical |Δ| 0.255%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.78%FINAL+0.78%MAX DD-1.42%RECOVERYONGOING · 15 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.64%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0078 · peak 1.0164 · range [1.0000, 1.0164]1.01641.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0164UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.42% · moderate0%-1.42%▼ TROUGH -1.42%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.42%bar 11-25 · 15 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.45%bar 5-7 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.42%)RECOVERYongoing · 15 barsTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 1.0078 (0.78%) · max DD -1.42% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-3.54 · σ=32.70MIXED EDGELAST 8.15 (+0.36σ vs μ)58.7529.370.00-29.37-58.75μ = -3.5433.0233.0246.2646.2631.8831.8821.6921.6939.0739.0738.3938.3917.0117.016.396.39-13.36-13.36-15.71-15.71-31.38-31.38-20.78-20.78-22.75-22.75-58.75-58.75-39.02-39.02-45.58-45.58-36.13-36.13-25.58-25.588.158.15v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 8.145 · range [-58.75, 46.26] · μ -3.536 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=27.9820 · σ=4.1749 · range [22.3614, 37.0357] · R²=0.094▼ FALLING -27.10%σ HIGH 14.92%LAST 25.473837.035733.367129.698526.030022.3614μ = 27.9820max 37.0357min 22.3614dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.09μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 25.47% · range [22.36%, 37.04%] · μ 27.98% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.255 · σ=0.311MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.124 (+0.42σ vs μ)0.8230.4120.000-0.412-0.823μ = -0.2550.1220.1220.0560.056-0.264-0.2640.0400.040-0.323-0.323-0.324-0.3240.1210.121-0.134-0.134-0.385-0.385-0.612-0.612-0.725-0.725-0.823-0.823-0.704-0.704-0.454-0.454-0.427-0.427-0.070-0.0700.0550.0550.1230.123-0.124-0.124v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.124 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.5096
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7751
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.5127
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6239
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.2503
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1940
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.0350
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9720
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2198
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3221
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.1911
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8484
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.058 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.08e-5 · top T=2.00h (32.5%) · top-3 cover 61.7%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)4.2e-53.2e-52.1e-51.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.02e-5 · 15.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.02e-5 · 15.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.28e-6 · 3.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.28e-6 · 3.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.11e-6 · 4.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.11e-6 · 4.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.74e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.74e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.25e-6 · 4.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.25e-6 · 4.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.46e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.46e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.43e-5 · 11.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.43e-5 · 11.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.05e-6 · 5.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.05e-6 · 5.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.52e-6 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.52e-6 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.49e-6 · 2.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.49e-6 · 2.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.15e-6 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.15e-6 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.20e-5 · 32.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.20e-5 · 32.5% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=24.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 32.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.292e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.01%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.01%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-76.37×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -22.60400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.010
annualized -22.60
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -607% · APY -100% · Sharpe -21.53σ ann 28% · Sortino -14.74 · n 4999
-2583%-2060%-1536%-1013%-490%34%-606.8%APR (simple)-99.8%APY (compound)28.2%Ann. vol σ-2152.6%Sharpe (ann)-1474.1%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0720.0730.0750.0760.0770.079t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:20:28 UTC
Snapshot age
3.0s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:20:32 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
fe57801d357e4236ce3e022d3fe2fb8bf0cbbe14ea1c20b6fe820622068558ce · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.85K
bid $787 · ask $2.07K
Depth within 10bp
$10.90K
bid $5.64K · ask $5.26K
Depth within 50bp
$50.48K
bid $26.86K · ask $23.62K
Mid price
0.075372
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.232
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.035
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-pol/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0753953.12bp0.0753962FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0754459.70bp0.0754989FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.07554422.83bp0.07575520PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0753443.66bp0.0753292FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0753058.87bp0.0752529FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.07510835.02bp0.07490020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-pol/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$2.80M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-pol/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.078 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.27M
real volume
Sell weight
$1.48M
real volume
Net delta
$214.76K
sellers net
Imbalance
-7.80%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
7.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-pol/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 2 found · deepest 1.16% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 06:00:00Z2.0h0.075783→0.0749061.157%3
#22026-06-14 00:00:00Z0ms0.075983→0.0755890.519%1

/api/asset/hl-pol/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
28.19%
σ per bar = 0.000123
Mean return (annualised)
-606.76%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-21.53
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.45%
peak 0.08 → trough 0.07 over 934 bars

/api/asset/hl-pol/risk · same metrics, JSON