HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

POLYX

POLYX-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-polyx · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.45%
realized vol (ann.)
38.28%
max drawdown
1.09%
sharpe
-2.95
ulcer index
0.60%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.49%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-188.67
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.04%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.99
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-108.71
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.99
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.45%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 8.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-polyx/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.040
24h Δ · live
-0.45%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
POLYX · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0398 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0394, 0.0403] · R²=0.600▼ FALLING -0.74%σ LOW 0.64%LAST 0.03960.04030.04010.03980.03960.0394μ = 0.0398max 0.0403min 0.0394dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.60μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.04
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=2,053,234 · μ=82129.4 · σ=68048.7 · CV=0.83BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=12086,450172,901259,351345,801μ = 82129345,80150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 345801 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.8s
$mark $
$0.0396
$mid $
$0.0396
◉prev-day close
$0.0398
Δ24h Δ %
-0.445%
$24h vol $
$79.62k
◐open interest $
$117.08k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0398 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0394, 0.0403] · R²=0.600▼ FALLING -0.74%σ LOW 0.64%LAST 0.03960.04030.04010.03980.03960.0394μ = 0.0398max 0.0403min 0.0394dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.60μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0396 · 24h -0.45% · range $[0.0394, 0.0403]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.0393, 0.0406] · σ=0.0003 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=40%BEARISH -0.37%CLOSE 0.0396 vs OPEN 0.0397 (-0.37%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.03960.04060.04020.03990.03960.0393μ close = 0.0398O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.37%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.37%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.15%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.15%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.61%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.61%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.74%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.74%)O0.040 H0.041 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.14%)O0.040 H0.041 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.14%)-0.9%O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.89%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.89%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.11%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.11%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.45%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.45%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.28%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.28%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.08%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.08%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.02%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.02%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.08%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.08%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.78%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.78%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.01%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.01%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.13%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.13%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.08%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.08%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.039 C0.040 (-0.52%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.039 C0.040 (-0.52%)O0.039 H0.040 L0.039 C0.040 (+0.56%)O0.039 H0.040 L0.039 C0.040 (+0.56%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.43%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.43%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.039 C0.040 (-0.21%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.039 C0.040 (-0.21%)O0.039 H0.040 L0.039 C0.040 (+0.35%)O0.039 H0.040 L0.039 C0.040 (+0.35%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.039 C0.040 (+0.17%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.039 C0.040 (+0.17%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.17%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.17%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (-0.19%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (-0.19%)O0.039 H0.040 L0.039 C0.040 (+0.47%)O0.039 H0.040 L0.039 C0.040 (+0.47%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=2,053,234 · μ=82129.4 · σ=68048.7 · CV=0.83BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=12086,450172,901259,351345,801μ = 82129113,899 · 32.9% peak113,899 · 32.9% peak69,115 · 20.0% peak69,115 · 20.0% peak148,878 · 43.1% peak148,878 · 43.1% peak16,810 · 4.9% peak16,810 · 4.9% peak167,418 · 48.4% peak167,418 · 48.4% peak94,402 · 27.3% peak94,402 · 27.3% peak123,659 · 35.8% peak123,659 · 35.8% peak66,233 · 19.2% peak66,233 · 19.2% peak82,587 · 23.9% peak82,587 · 23.9% peak45,367 · 13.1% peak45,367 · 13.1% peak54,270 · 15.7% peak54,270 · 15.7% peak49,425 · 14.3% peak49,425 · 14.3% peak345,801345,801 · 100.0% peak345,801 · 100.0% peak52,933 · 15.3% peak52,933 · 15.3% peak42,456 · 12.3% peak42,456 · 12.3% peak75,736 · 21.9% peak75,736 · 21.9% peak46,844 · 13.5% peak46,844 · 13.5% peak142,825 · 41.3% peak142,825 · 41.3% peak45,428 · 13.1% peak45,428 · 13.1% peak26,770 · 7.7% peak26,770 · 7.7% peak42,233 · 12.2% peak42,233 · 12.2% peak59,491 · 17.2% peak59,491 · 17.2% peak46,900 · 13.6% peak46,900 · 13.6% peak19,735 · 5.7% peak19,735 · 5.7% peak74,019 · 21.4% peak74,019 · 21.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 2053234 · peak 345801 · CV 0.83

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0003 · σ=0.0041 · skew=0.33 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.92 (mesokurtic)54310 3-62.75bpbin -62.75bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -62.75bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak-49.81bp 5-36.88bpbin -36.88bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -36.88bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 3-23.95bpbin -23.95bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -23.95bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 1-11.02bpbin -11.02bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -11.02bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 31.91bpbin 1.91bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 1.91bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 314.85bpbin 14.85bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 14.85bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 127.78bpbin 27.78bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 27.78bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak40.71bp 453.64bpbin 53.64bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 53.64bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak66.57bp 179.50bpbin 79.50bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 79.50bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.29 · kurt=-0.67 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0396
Mid price
$0.0396
24h change
-0.45%
Mark–mid spread
2.53 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0398

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.05)
μ MEAN0.0398$95% CI: [0.0397$, 0.0399$]
σ STD DEV0.0003$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.64%
med MEDIAN0.0399$Q₁ 0.0396$ · Q₃ 0.0400$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0009$ · IQR 0.0004$ (1.349σ→0.0003$)
min 0.0394$Q₁ 0.0396$med 0.0399$Q₃ 0.0400$max 0.0403$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.108approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.054platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.14
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.81
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.65
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-6.96
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.031034%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.074
σᵣ STD / h0.417521%σ²ᵣ = 0.174×10⁻⁴ · CV = 13.45×
σ ANNUALISED39.08%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.418%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-6.96negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-7.26downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.31approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.54mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.04
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-271.85%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.68%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.675%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.692%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.692%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.32%19h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.675%VaR₉₉−0.692%ES₉₅−0.692%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 19h duration
PEAK4.03$
−2.32% drawdown over 19h
3.94$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.02× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.02× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.38% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
46.5 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.299 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0403
Bollinger MA
$0.0398
Bollinger lower
$0.0393

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.163within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.264lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.861strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.871significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.861
H = 0.861STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.163k=2-0.264k=3-0.126k=4+0.367k=5-0.2330+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.87)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.88very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.87)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$79.62k
Open interest (USD)
$117.08k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.68x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.86% · worst -0.69% · typical |Δ| 0.34%MILD BEARISH -0.74%BEST+0.86%15hWORST-0.69%17hTYPICAL |Δ|0.34%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.74%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.19% · Σ -1.48%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.15% · Σ +1.23%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.49%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.74%+1.04%-1.31%-0.38% · 13h-0.38% · 13h-0.38%13h0.55% · 14h0.55% · 14h0.55%14h0.86% · 15h0.86% · 15h0.86%15h★ BEST0.01% · 16h0.01% · 16h0.01%16h-0.69% · 17h-0.69% · 17h-0.69%17h▼ WORST-0.18% · 18h-0.18% · 18h-0.18%18h0.49% · 19h0.49% · 19h0.49%19h-0.33% · 20h-0.33% · 20h-0.33%20h0.09% · 21h0.09% · 21h0.09%21h-0.05% · 22h-0.05% · 22h-0.05%22h0.18% · 23h0.18% · 23h0.18%23h-0.59% · 00h-0.59% · 00h-0.59%00h-0.01% · 01h-0.01% · 01h-0.01%01h-0.31% · 02h-0.31% · 02h-0.31%02h0.08% · 03h0.08% · 03h0.08%03h-0.69% · 04h-0.69% · 04h-0.69%04h0.47% · 05h0.47% · 05h0.47%05h-0.25% · 06h-0.25% · 06h-0.25%06h-0.18% · 07h-0.18% · 07h-0.18%07h0.22% · 08h0.22% · 08h0.22%08h0.18% · 09h0.18% · 09h0.18%09h-0.37% · 10h-0.37% · 10h-0.37%10h-0.39% · 11h-0.39% · 11h-0.39%11h0.57% · 12h0.57% · 12h0.57%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.23%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 0.86% · worst -0.69% · typical |Δ| 0.338%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.76%)FINAL-0.76%MAX DD-2.33%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.04%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9924 · peak 1.0104 · range [0.9868, 1.0104]1.01040.9868break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0104UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.33% · moderate0%-2.33%▼ TROUGH -2.33%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.33%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.38%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.33%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9924 (-0.76%) · max DD -2.33% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-18.48 · σ=22.85UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 0.52 (+0.83σ vs μ)57.6828.840.00-28.84-57.68μ = -18.484.434.4328.3928.394.224.22-24.16-24.16-26.46-26.4610.5710.57-8.64-8.64-38.26-38.26-37.72-37.72-38.42-38.42-57.68-57.68-36.94-36.94-27.98-27.98-35.35-35.35-13.77-13.77-9.69-9.692.762.76-46.85-46.850.520.52v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.516 · range [-57.68, 28.39] · μ -18.477 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=36.6171 · σ=8.9901 · range [25.2252, 54.5199] · R²=0.245▼ FALLING -34.43%σ EXTREME 24.55%LAST 35.746654.519947.196239.872632.548925.2252μ = 36.6171max 54.5199min 25.2252dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.25μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 35.75% · range [25.23%, 54.52%] · μ 36.62% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.355 · σ=0.332MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.197 (+0.48σ vs μ)0.7530.3770.000-0.377-0.753μ = -0.3550.2170.2170.3000.300-0.071-0.071-0.302-0.302-0.204-0.204-0.719-0.719-0.430-0.430-0.485-0.485-0.440-0.440-0.575-0.575-0.627-0.627-0.613-0.613-0.753-0.753-0.725-0.725-0.647-0.647-0.453-0.453-0.261-0.2610.2360.236-0.197-0.197v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.197 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.6821
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7110
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
9.1515
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1021
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.4495
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5574
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.2965
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1948
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7157
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0121
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.2870
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1981
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.608 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.75e-5 · top T=3.43h (32.8%) · top-3 cover 60.8%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)6.9e-55.2e-53.4e-51.7e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.21e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.21e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.40e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.40e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.83e-5 · 8.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.83e-5 · 8.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.63e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.63e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.43e-6 · 3.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.43e-6 · 3.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.89e-6 · 3.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.89e-6 · 3.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.88e-5 · 32.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.88e-5 · 32.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.18e-5 · 5.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.18e-5 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.31e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.31e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.51e-6 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.51e-6 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.02e-5 · 19.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.02e-5 · 19.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.87e-5 · 8.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.87e-5 · 8.9% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=2.18h#3T=2.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 32.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.098e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-27.49×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -12.51400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.005
annualized -12.51
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -451% · APY -99% · Sharpe -11.13σ ann 40% · Sortino -6.87 · n 4999
-1336%-1059%-782%-505%-228%49%-450.7%APR (simple)-99.0%APY (compound)40.5%Ann. vol σ-1113.0%Sharpe (ann)-687.1%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0380.0380.0390.0400.0410.042t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:20:28 UTC
Snapshot age
2.8s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:20:31 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
9825576455dfb96334f64fd3ac442108d3dc329af47a87668c8f9a671dd8a166 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.22K
bid $519 · ask $705
Depth within 10bp
$4.31K
bid $2.08K · ask $2.24K
Depth within 50bp
$22.26K
bid $11.21K · ask $11.05K
Mid price
0.039576
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
5.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.103
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.002
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-polyx/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0395903.55bp0.0395983FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.03964316.82bp0.0396999FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.03987675.81bp0.04014220PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0395584.55bp0.0395503FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.03949420.84bp0.0393969FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.03935156.83bp0.03898220PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-polyx/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$2.05M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-polyx/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.084 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$888.43K
real volume
Sell weight
$1.05M
real volume
Net delta
$162.47K
sellers net
Imbalance
-8.38%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
8.4%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-polyx/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 0.92% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z0ms0.039870→0.0395020.923%1
#22026-06-14 00:00:00Z2.0h0.040106→0.0397450.900%3
#32026-06-13 17:00:00Z1.0h0.040306→0.0399560.868%2

/api/asset/hl-polyx/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
40.49%
σ per bar = 0.000177
Mean return (annualised)
-450.71%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-11.13
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.51%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.04 over 3558 bars

/api/asset/hl-polyx/risk · same metrics, JSON