HYPERLIQUID · HIP-3 PREDICTION MARKET · OUTCOME #179

Canada

Primary · Yes
0.3¢
Counter · No
99.7¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · pred-canada-179 · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-pred-canada-179/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
Yes mid · live
0.3¢
No mid · live
99.7¢
Yes · live 24h price
n=24 · μ=0.0020 · σ=0.0000 · range [-0.9980, 1.0020] · R²=-1.370▬ FLATσ LOW 0.00%LAST 0.00201.00200.50200.0020-0.4980-0.9980μ = 0.0020max 0.0020min 0.0020dataMA(4)OLS R²=-1.37μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
24 bars · close 0.20¢ · 24h +0.00%
Probability split · live
Yes 0.3%No 99.7%NO99.7%99.67¢ · odds 1/1.00
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.032 / 1.00 bits (3%) · informative — one side favoured
Yes
0.3%0.3¢307.69×▬ +0.00pp
No
99.7%99.7¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp
primary vs counter implied %
Volume · per-hour contracts · live
n=24 · Σ=56 · μ=2.3 · σ=1.8 · CV=0.75FADING -40% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=902356μ = 2650%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 56 · peak 6
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.3s
▲Yes mid
0.325¢
▼No mid
99.675¢
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
Σarb gap |1 − Σ|
0.00pp
Δ24h candles
24 bars
Δ24h close
0.20¢
Δ24h change
+0.00%

§1 · 24h time-series

Mid price · Yes (24 hourly observations)
n=24 · μ=0.0020 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0020, 0.0020] · R²=-1.370▬ FLATσ LOW 0.00%LAST 0.00200.0020-0.2480-0.4980-0.7480-0.9980μ = 0.0020max 0.0020min 0.0020dataMA(4)OLS R²=-1.37μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
range [0.20¢, 0.20¢] · span 0.00pp · MA(5) latest 0.20¢
Candlestick · open / high / low / close per hour
n=24 · up 24 · down 0 (100% up) · range [0.0020, 0.0020] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=0%BULLISH +0.00%CLOSE 0.0020 vs OPEN 0.0020 (+0.00%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.00200.0020-0.2480-0.4980-0.7480-0.9980μ close = 0.0020O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)#1#5#9#13#17#21up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(4) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
24 bars · last close 0.20¢
Hourly traded contracts
n=24 · Σ=56 · μ=2.3 · σ=1.8 · CV=0.75FADING -40% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=902356μ = 25 · 83.3% peak5 · 83.3% peak4 · 66.7% peak4 · 66.7% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak3 · 50.0% peak3 · 50.0% peak2 · 33.3% peak2 · 33.3% peak66 · 100.0% peak6 · 100.0% peak2 · 33.3% peak2 · 33.3% peak4 · 66.7% peak4 · 66.7% peak3 · 50.0% peak3 · 50.0% peak2 · 33.3% peak2 · 33.3% peak4 · 66.7% peak4 · 66.7% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak1 · 16.7% peak1 · 16.7% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak1 · 16.7% peak1 · 16.7% peak4 · 66.7% peak4 · 66.7% peak5 · 83.3% peak5 · 83.3% peak2 · 33.3% peak2 · 33.3% peak1 · 16.7% peak1 · 16.7% peak1 · 16.7% peak1 · 16.7% peak3 · 50.0% peak3 · 50.0% peak1 · 16.7% peak1 · 16.7% peak2 · 33.3% peak2 · 33.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol = 56 · peak 6 · mean 2.3

§2 · Distribution of one-bar increments Δp = pₜ − pₜ₋₁

Histogram of Δp
n=23 · 1 bins · μ=0.0000 · σ=0.0000 · skew=0.00 (symmetric) · kurt=-3.00 (platykurtic (thin tails))23171260230.00ppbin 0.00pp · n=23 · 100.0% peakbin 0.00pp · n=23 · 100.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=23 · positive 0 · negative 0
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=23 · skew=0.00 · kurt=-3.00 · near 5 / mid 10 / far 8 · OLS slope=0.00 intercept=0.00MODERATE DEPARTURE · SOME OUTLIERSTHIN UPPER TAILTHIN LOWER TAIL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+2.02σΔ=+1.51σΔ=-1.51σΔ=-2.02σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=24LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.94)
μ MEAN0.20¢95% CI: [0.20¢, 0.20¢]
σ STD DEV0.00ppσ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.00%
med MEDIAN0.20¢Q₁ 0.20¢ · Q₃ 0.20¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.00pp · IQR 0.00pp (1.349σ→0.00pp)
min 0.20¢Q₁ 0.20¢med 0.20¢Q₃ 0.20¢max 0.20¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.938left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-2.082platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.00
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.00
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 0.00
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation · skew (G₁): >0 right-tail · kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI uses 1.96·SE around μ. σ × 1.349 ≈ IQR under normality.

§6 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.000within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.000lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.500random-walk
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.000fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]random-walk · H = 0.500
H = 0.500RANDOM-WALK
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.000k=2+0.000k=3+0.000k=4+0.000k=5+0.0000+1−1+0.42−0.42+ momentum (ρ > +0.42)− reversal (ρ < −0.42)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.00)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.00low · ~ unpredictable|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.00)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§7 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
OUTCOME ID#179
SLUGcanada-179
QUOTE TOKENUSDC
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (100¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.33¢implied prob 0.33% · decimal odds 307.69×
COUNTER · NO99.67¢implied prob 99.67% · decimal odds 1.00×
0.33¢
99.67¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYSPARSE · CAUTION
24H VOLUME56 contracts
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.994 · entropy 0.032 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHSPARSE · CAUTION100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = primary + counter implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§8 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Yes vs No · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
Yes 0.3%No 99.7%YES p̂0.3%H = 0.032 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (Yes)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
Yes307.69×(0¢)No1.00×(100¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.032 bits (3% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b where b = (1−p̂)/p̂ are the net odds implied by p̂. ½K and ¼K are industry-standard conservative fractions.

§9 · Resolution criteria

This outcome resolves to Yes if Canada is officially declared the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion.

§10 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=23 bars · best 0.00% · worst 0.00% · typical |Δ| 0.00%MIXED · 0 UP / 0 DNBEST+0.00%12hWORST0.00%12hTYPICAL |Δ|0.00%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.00%+0.00%0.00%0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h★ BEST▼ WORST0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 00h0.00% · 00h·00h0.00% · 01h0.00% · 01h·01h0.00% · 02h0.00% · 02h·02h0.00% · 03h0.00% · 03h·03h0.00% · 04h0.00% · 04h·04h0.00% · 05h0.00% · 05h·05h0.00% · 06h0.00% · 06h·06h0.00% · 07h0.00% · 07h·07h0.00% · 08h0.00% · 08h·08h0.00% · 09h0.00% · 09h·09h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10hTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 0 · down max 0BREADTH0% up · 0% down · 100% flat
0 up bars · 0 down · best 0.00% · worst 0.00% · typical |Δ| 0.000%

§11 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=24 barsFLAT · NO MATERIAL MOVEMENTFINAL+0.00%MAX DD0.00%RECOVERYFULLY RECOVEREDMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER0/24 (0%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0000 · peak 1.0000 · range [1.0000, 1.0000]1.00001.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max 0.00% · shallow0%0.00%▼ TROUGH 0.00%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 0 totalDD SEVERITYshallow (max 0.00%)RECOVERYfully recoveredTIME UNDER WATER0% of session · 0/24 bars
final equity 1.0000 (0.00%) · max DD 0.00% · time-under-water 0/24 bars

§12 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 5 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +0 / −0 (0% positive) · μ=0.00 · σ=0.00UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 0.00 (+0.00σ vs μ)0.000.000.00-0.00-0.00μ = 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.000 · range [0.00, 0.00] · μ 0.000 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=0.0000 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0000, 0.0000] · R²=0.000▬ FLATσ LOW 0.00%LAST 0.00000.0000-0.2500-0.5000-0.7500-1.0000μ = 0.0000max 0.0000min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 0.00% · range [0.00%, 0.00%] · μ 0.00% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −0 (0% positive) · μ=0.000 · σ=0.000MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.000 (+0.00σ vs μ)0.0000.0000.000-0.000-0.000μ = 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.000 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§13 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 4 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·3 pass·2 n/a·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.0000
p-VALUE (log scale)
1.0000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
0.0000
p-VALUE (log scale)
1.0000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

N/An/a

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
—
p-VALUE (log scale)
—
no decision possibleinsufficient data
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

N/An/a

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
—
p-VALUE (log scale)
—
no decision possibleinsufficient sign variety (0+/0-)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.0000
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=2

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-4.7958
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.000 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§14 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=11 bins · noise floor μ=9.09e-14 · top T=23.00h (0.0%) · top-3 cover 0.0%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)1.0e-127.5e-135.0e-132.5e-130.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 23.0 · power 0.00e+0 · NaN% energyperiod 23.0 · power 0.00e+0 · NaN% energyperiod 11.5 · power 0.00e+0 · NaN% energyperiod 11.5 · power 0.00e+0 · NaN% energyperiod 7.7 · power 0.00e+0 · NaN% energyperiod 7.7 · power 0.00e+0 · NaN% energyperiod 5.8 · power 0.00e+0 · NaN% energyperiod 5.8 · power 0.00e+0 · NaN% energyperiod 4.6 · power 0.00e+0 · NaN% energyperiod 4.6 · power 0.00e+0 · NaN% energyperiod 3.8 · power 0.00e+0 · NaN% energyperiod 3.8 · power 0.00e+0 · NaN% energyperiod 3.3 · power 0.00e+0 · NaN% energyperiod 3.3 · power 0.00e+0 · NaN% energyperiod 2.9 · power 0.00e+0 · NaN% energyperiod 2.9 · power 0.00e+0 · NaN% energyperiod 2.6 · power 0.00e+0 · NaN% energyperiod 2.6 · power 0.00e+0 · NaN% energyperiod 2.3 · power 0.00e+0 · NaN% energyperiod 2.3 · power 0.00e+0 · NaN% energyperiod 2.1 · power 0.00e+0 · NaN% energyperiod 2.1 · power 0.00e+0 · NaN% energy#1 dominantT=23.00h#2T=11.50h#3T=7.67hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 23.00h (freq 0.043) · concentrates 0.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 0.000e+0

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§15 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§16 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 7.0 d · σ/bar 0.004pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.05ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0032 · n = 5000✓ n = 5000
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.004pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.02pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move7d
0.05pp
σ × √168
Terminal variancebinary
0.0032
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.3¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§17 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.01pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.28pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 5000
VaR 95%
0.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.01pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
46.6pp
peak 0.6¢ → trough 0.3¢
Median step
0.28pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§18 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.3%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
307.692
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+30669
$100 wins $30669
FractionalUK
306.69 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$30669.23
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.3%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§19 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.032 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.032 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
8.27 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.00 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§20 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
https://hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:44:03 UTC
Snapshot age
4.3s
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:44:08 UTC
History points
24 closes · 24 counter-side closes
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
04aea2a23175d426e3cf819ba4528a846920a3676d705fe3605bec7640d31a66 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,704HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.93HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,727.4

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
2036.31%
σ per bar = 0.008882
Mean return (annualised)
-66029.04%
μ per bar = -0.000126
Sharpe (rf=0)
-32.43
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
46.63%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.00 over 2159 bars

/api/asset/hl-pred-canada-179/risk · same metrics, JSON