As of the latest market snapshot, the implied probability of "Yes" is 0.6%. This outcome resolves to Yes if Ecuador is officially declared the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion.

HYPERLIQUID · HIP-3 PREDICTION MARKET · OUTCOME #186

Ecuador

Primary · Yes

0.6¢

Counter · No

99.4¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · pred-ecuador-186 · fresh · feed 3s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

26.37%

max drawdown

62.10%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

9.33%

RMS drawdown

pain index

7.48%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

14.07%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.78

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.78

upside/downside

roll spread

1.5 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

2000

store

spread

—

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-pred-ecuador-186/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →

LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.2s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

Yes mid · live

0.6¢

No mid · live

99.4¢

Yes · live 24h price

23 bars · close 0.32¢ · 24h -60.05%

Probability split · live

Σ 100.00% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.052 / 1.00 bits (5%) · informative — one side favoured

Yes

0.6%0.6¢169.20×▬ +0.00pp

99.4%99.4¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp

primary vs counter implied %

Volume · per-hour contracts · live

Σ 21320 · peak 9499

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

3.2s

▲Yes mid

0.591¢

▼No mid

99.409¢

ΣΣ sides

100.00%

Σarb gap |1 − Σ|

0.00pp

Δ24h candles

23 bars

Δ24h close

0.32¢

Δ24h change

-60.05%

§1 · 24h time-series

Mid price · Yes (23 hourly observations)

range [0.32¢, 0.80¢] · span 0.48pp · MA(5) latest 0.60¢

Candlestick · open / high / low / close per hour

23 bars · last close 0.32¢

Hourly traded contracts

Σ vol = 21320 · peak 9499 · mean 927.0

§2 · Distribution of one-bar increments Δp = pₜ − pₜ₋₁

Histogram of Δp

n=22 · positive 0 · negative 3

Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)

reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics

SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=23LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=5.75)

μ MEAN0.75¢95% CI: [0.70¢, 0.80¢]

σ STD DEV0.13ppσ² = 0.016 · CV = 16.79%

med MEDIAN0.77¢Q₁ 0.77¢ · Q₃ 0.80¢

FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.48pp · IQR 0.03pp (1.349σ→0.17pp)

SKEWNESS · G₁-2.690left-skewed

−3−10+1+3

EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂5.753leptokurtic · fat tails

−30+2+4+6

μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.16

σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 4.98

range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.83

μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation · skew (G₁): >0 right-tail · kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI uses 1.96·SE around μ. σ × 1.349 ≈ IQR under normality.

§6 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics

TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=22

ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.120within white-noise band

ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.012lag-2 not significant

H · HURST EXPONENT1.684strongly persistent

OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.299significant @ α=0.05

HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.684

H = 1.684STRONGLY PERSISTENT

0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending

AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags

OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.30)

−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject

REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=22from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis

PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic

TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.30)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58

ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§7 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity

MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%

OUTCOME ID#186

SLUGecuador-186

QUOTE TOKENUSDC

TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (99¢)

PRIMARY · YES0.59¢implied prob 0.59% · decimal odds 169.20×

COUNTER · NO99.41¢implied prob 99.41% · decimal odds 1.01×

0.59¢

99.41¢

Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%

0%50%100% · target110%

Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp

24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE

24H VOLUME21.32k contracts

MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient

PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (99¢)|primary − counter| = 0.988 · entropy 0.052 bits

LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin

Σ-sides = primary + counter implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§8 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Yes vs No · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage

FAIR MARKET · no edge

Probability scale (Yes)

0%25%50%
fair75%100%

Implied decimal odds

Yes169.20×(1¢)No1.01×(99¢)

Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = -0.00%

K* full

-0.00%

½K half

-0.00%

¼K quarter

-0.00%

Entropy H(p̂) = 0.052 bits (5% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured

0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)

Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding

K* full = (b·p − q)/b where b = (1−p̂)/p̂ are the net odds implied by p̂. ½K and ¼K are industry-standard conservative fractions.

§9 · Resolution criteria

This outcome resolves to Yes if Ecuador is officially declared the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion.

§10 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down

0 up bars · 3 down · best 0.00% · worst -0.38% · typical |Δ| 0.022%

§11 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough

final equity 0.9952 (-0.48%) · max DD -0.48% · time-under-water 12/23 bars

§12 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 5 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative

latest -50.997 · range [-51.00, 0.00] · μ -16.785 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window

Rolling annualised volatility (%)

latest 15.36% · range [0.00%, 15.82%] · μ 2.13% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)

Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)

latest -0.146 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§13 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance

2 of 5 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·3 pass·1 n/a·α = 0.05

𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC

440.3038

p-VALUE (log scale)

< 0.0001

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC

0.3998

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.9936

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC

0.7684

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.9990

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

N/An/a

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC

—

p-VALUE (log scale)

—

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC

0.4765

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.0470

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Variance ratio q=2

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC

0.7770

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.4372

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§14 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n

dominant period ≈ 11.00h (freq 0.091) · concentrates 13.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.182e-6

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§15 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§16 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 7.0 d · σ/bar 0.007pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.09ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0059 · n = 5000✓ n = 5000

μ per bar

-0.000pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.007pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.04pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move7d

0.09pp

σ × √168

Terminal variancebinary

0.0059

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

0.6¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§17 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.02pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.03pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 5000

VaR 95%

0.01pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.02pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

62.1pp

peak 0.7¢ → trough 0.3¢

Median step

0.03pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§18 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

0.6%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

169.205

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+16820

$100 wins $16820

FractionalUK

168.20 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$16820.47

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§19 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.052 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.052 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

7.40 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.01 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§20 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: https://hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 16:03:02 UTC
Snapshot age: 3.2s
Page rendered: 2026-06-14 16:03:06 UTC
History points: 23 closes · 23 counter-side closes
Storage policy: no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation: f36974c19ea65b0cb655df825d762b0fc25c1d508235799758abb18f957b44e4 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.5¢HL PREDSpain90.0¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,018.5 HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,663.05 HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.31

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M

Realized vol (annualised)

4001.56%

σ per bar = 0.017451

Mean return (annualised)

-15678.00%

μ per bar = -0.000030

Sharpe (rf=0)

-3.92

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

62.10%

peak 0.01 → trough 0.00 over 4243 bars

/api/asset/hl-pred-ecuador-186/risk · same metrics, JSON