As of the latest market snapshot, the implied probability of "Yes" is 2.1%. This outcome resolves to Yes if USA is officially declared the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion.

HYPERLIQUID · HIP-3 PREDICTION MARKET · OUTCOME #217

USA

Primary · Yes

2.1¢

Counter · No

97.9¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · pred-usa-217 · fresh · feed 1s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

1.49%

max drawdown

0.60%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

0.28%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.13%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

0.60%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

2.00

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

2.00

upside/downside

roll spread

0.1 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

2000

store

spread

—

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-pred-usa-217/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →

LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH669ms⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

Yes mid · live

2.1¢

No mid · live

97.9¢

Yes · live 24h price

22 bars · close 2.19¢ · 24h +10.61%

Probability split · live

Σ 100.00% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.150 / 1.00 bits (15%) · informative — one side favoured

Yes

2.1%2.1¢46.51×▬ +0.00pp

97.9%97.9¢1.02×▬ +0.00pp

primary vs counter implied %

Volume · per-hour contracts · live

Σ 299639 · peak 139500

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

669ms

▲Yes mid

2.150¢

▼No mid

97.850¢

ΣΣ sides

100.00%

Σarb gap |1 − Σ|

0.00pp

Δ24h candles

22 bars

Δ24h close

2.19¢

Δ24h change

+10.61%

§1 · 24h time-series

Mid price · Yes (22 hourly observations)

range [1.90¢, 2.50¢] · span 0.60pp · MA(5) latest 2.21¢

Candlestick · open / high / low / close per hour

22 bars · last close 2.19¢

Hourly traded contracts

Σ vol = 299639 · peak 139500 · mean 13620.0

§2 · Distribution of one-bar increments Δp = pₜ − pₜ₋₁

Histogram of Δp

n=21 · positive 7 · negative 6

Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)

reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics

SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=22LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=4.65)

μ MEAN2.03¢95% CI: [1.97¢, 2.08¢]

σ STD DEV0.13ppσ² = 0.017 · CV = 6.51%

med MEDIAN2.00¢Q₁ 1.94¢ · Q₃ 2.08¢

FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.60pp · IQR 0.13pp (1.349σ→0.18pp)

SKEWNESS · G₁2.059right-skewed

−3−10+1+3

EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂4.651leptokurtic · fat tails

−30+2+4+6

μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.19

σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.33

range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.54

μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation · skew (G₁): >0 right-tail · kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI uses 1.96·SE around μ. σ × 1.349 ≈ IQR under normality.

§6 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics

TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.44 + ADF rejected

ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.436within white-noise band

ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.035lag-2 not significant

H · HURST EXPONENT0.718strongly persistent

OLS TREND · t-STAT+3.788significant @ α=0.05

HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.718

H = 0.718STRONGLY PERSISTENT

0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending

AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags

OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.79)

−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject

REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.44 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis

PREDICTABILITY · score 0.87very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic

TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.79)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58

ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§7 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity

MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%

OUTCOME ID#217

SLUGusa-217

QUOTE TOKENUSDC

TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (98¢)

PRIMARY · YES2.15¢implied prob 2.15% · decimal odds 46.51×

COUNTER · NO97.85¢implied prob 97.85% · decimal odds 1.02×

2.15¢

97.85¢

Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%

0%50%100% · target110%

Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp

24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP

24H VOLUME299.64k contracts

MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient

PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (98¢)|primary − counter| = 0.957 · entropy 0.150 bits

LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin

Σ-sides = primary + counter implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§8 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Yes vs No · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage

FAIR MARKET · no edge

Probability scale (Yes)

0%25%50%
fair75%100%

Implied decimal odds

Yes46.51×(2¢)No1.02×(98¢)

Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%

K* full

0.00%

½K half

0.00%

¼K quarter

0.00%

Entropy H(p̂) = 0.150 bits (15% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured

0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)

Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding

K* full = (b·p − q)/b where b = (1−p̂)/p̂ are the net odds implied by p̂. ½K and ¼K are industry-standard conservative fractions.

§9 · Resolution criteria

This outcome resolves to Yes if USA is officially declared the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion.

§10 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down

7 up bars · 6 down · best 0.42% · worst -0.31% · typical |Δ| 0.055%

§11 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough

final equity 1.0021 (0.21%) · max DD -0.31% · time-under-water 11/22 bars

§12 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 5 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative

latest 8.032 · range [-55.76, 55.07] · μ 8.627 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window

Rolling annualised volatility (%)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC

-1.9287

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.0538

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§14 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n

dominant period ≈ 2.10h (freq 0.476) · concentrates 23.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.537e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§15 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§16 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 7.0 d · σ/bar 0.004pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.05ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0210 · n = 5000✓ n = 5000

μ per bar

-0.000pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.004pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.02pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move7d

0.05pp

σ × √168

Terminal variancebinary

0.0210

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

2.1¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§17 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.01pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.00pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 5000

VaR 95%

0.01pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.01pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

11.0pp

peak 2.4¢ → trough 2.1¢

Median step

0.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§18 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

2.1%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

46.512

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+4551

$100 wins $4551

FractionalUK

45.51 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$4551.16

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§19 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.150 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.150 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

5.54 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.03 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§20 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: https://hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 09:41:31 UTC
Snapshot age: 669ms
Page rendered: 2026-06-14 09:41:32 UTC
History points: 22 closes · 22 counter-side closes
Storage policy: no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation: 10a03979973ed02c368c18ac57addf4fe334e107ff1c955dc9955a07c26423a0 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay67.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?23¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,478 HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,674.8 HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.31

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M

Realized vol (annualised)

357.36%

σ per bar = 0.001558

Mean return (annualised)

-6129.63%

μ per bar = -0.000012

Sharpe (rf=0)

-17.15

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

10.98%

peak 0.02 → trough 0.02 over 304 bars

/api/asset/hl-pred-usa-217/risk · same metrics, JSON